Natanyahu will fail to block the Iran deal.

"...  as a practical matter, this bill is no more likely to actually stop the deal with Iran than the original version. Under either version, Congress could pass a resolution rejecting the Iran agreement, but Mr. Obama could veto it, meaning he needs to hold onto no more than 34 senators or 146 House members to prevent an override.

Congress is trying to insert itself into a negotiation in which it has played little direct role. Negotiators from six world powers reached a framework agreement with Iran this month to curb its nuclear program in exchange for relief from international sanctions, but key details, including when sanctions would be lifted, remain in dispute as the negotiators try to commit the deal to writing by June 30."  NY Times

----------------------

Iran would be wise to release the Americans it holds.

The Democrats have 44 seats in the US Senate.   The Democrats have 188 seats in the House of Representatives.  Do the arithmetic.  Do you think Obama/Kerry/Biden cannot hang onto enough seats to prevent an override of Obama's veto of a blocking resolution by Congress?  Some Republicans will vote with Obama.  Bernie Sanders, an independent member of the US Senate, will undoubtedly vote with Obama.  Do the arithmetic.

The Likud government of Israel is ordering its minions in the US Congress to vote against Obama.  Natanyahu, Naftali Bennett and the like are confronted with the possibility that Israel may not continue to be the chief meddler and dominant power in the ME.  The threat they fear is not so much the distant improbability of Iran obliterating Tel Aviv and Haifa.  The Iranians know very well that the result of such an attack would be US attacks that would truly obliterate Iran as an existing state.  No, what the Israelis fear is the loss of dominance in the ME, the ability to meddle at will and do such stupid things as to act as benefactors for JAN in Syria.

Media flunkies of  Likud/AIPAC have been ordered into the fight against the deal.  IMO Judy Woodruff, Wolf Blitzer, Jose Diaz-Balart, Andrea Mitchell and the like are trying hard to generate opposition to Obama's deal.  The method used is often to "interview" people like Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton to give them the opportunity to attack the deal.  The technique of asking "softball" questions so as to provide the chance to rave is a very old technique.

No matter.  The effort will fail.  The deal will be done.  pl  

BTW.  Colonel (Ret) Larry Wilkerson appeared on TV this morning to defend the deal.  He did a superb job.  Kudos.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/16/us/politics/power-over-iran-nuclear-deal-swings-to-congress-foiling-obama.html?_r=0

 

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/documents/world/full-text-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal/1651/

 

Comments

[Matthew]

Message to Netanyahu: We hate your arrogance. We hate your meddling in American domestic politics. We hate your attempts to embarrass our government officials.

This Iran deal is good for America. Even if it were flawed, which is doubtful, the fact that we can shove it in your face makes it the best deal ever.

[jr786]

"Bernie Sanders, an independent member of the US Senate, will undoubtedly vote with Obama."

I hope you're right, Col., but I'm afraid the Israel Firsters will throw everything at this, including calling on their members who remain silent while McCain, Graham, Lieberman, et al. carried the ball. I'm not so sure about Sanders.

[oofda]

Colonel,
This actually is a good deal- from what I have read of it so far. It is far better that I thougt it would be- and I am very familiar nuclear issues. It really does put tremedous blockage on any Iranian attempt at getting a bomb. People who say that it "will allow Iran to get the bomb" have no idea what they are talking about. Graham and Cotton are clueless as to all that is involved in making a bomb. Also think of what will happen if they hadn't gotten agreement- or if the deal falls through. Then Iran would have a path to the bomb. Those that are bashing the deal aren't thinking about what would happen next- unless they really want a shooting war with Iran.

It is good for the United States, and the world- and yes, even Israel. You hit the nail on the head on Israel's REAL problem with the agreement. Loss of dominance in the ME- and the world focusing more attention on thier treatment of the Palestinians.

[Johnny Reims]

Just so people know, one of Netanyahu’s biggest fans and devotees in the USA is…..the Donald. Yes, Donald Trump. Make of it what you will but at least click the following.

http://tinyurl.com/netoshq

Johnny Reims (it's Bastille Day).

[Macgupta123]

I heard a Republican political commentator tell BBC that (opposition to) the Iran Deal will be a winning issue for the Republican candidates for POTUS, and the next President will tear up the deal with Iran immediately after he is sworn in.

[Petrous]

Colonel Lang

One factor to watch is how and with what group would the heavy weight Democratic contender Mrs. H Clinton align herself with. There is already a huge push, no doubt, to force her to repudiate or at least not align herself with the President and his camp. What she does will have a significant bearing on what the troops in the Senate & the House of representative do if there is a veto.
She would be as much a factor or more as Senator Sanders.

[PeterHug]

Both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton are already on record as supporting this agreement.

(From Bernie's twitter feed:)
"The #IranDeal is a victory for diplomacy over saber-rattling and could keep us from being drawn into another never-ending war."

[Matthew]

Petrous: Clinton She has already come out in favor of the deal.

[The Beaver]

@ Johnny

Unless the Donald is the next POTUS then we will have to worry, so to speak . Otherwise , he does not have any power except for his big mouth as far as geopolitics are concerned.

Same goes for Lindsey Graham.

[The Beaver]

Colonel,

WRT Col (Ret) Wilkerson, there is this article in USAToday:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2015/07/14/iran-nuclear-deal-congress-support-column/29763005/

[quote]
If the U.S. doesn't make good on its end of the bargain, there is little reason to believe Iran would make good on its nuclear concessions. Even our allies would question the purpose of negotiating with Washington when Capitol Hill sabotages a multilateral agreement of this significance. For the U.S. to renege on its obligations would risk an unconstrained Iranian nuclear program and an escalating cycle of hostilities that would put our countries back on a path to confrontation or possibly even war. [eoq]

[[email protected]]

I would be calling my Senators and Representative to support this unfortunately all 3 of them are Republican and are supporting Israel. Good for Kerry and President Obama. All the powers that Israel can call up will be going against this bill. It seems Israel and the Republicans will not be happy until they have drug us into a war with Iran, but hopefully not this time. Donald Trump and Netanyahu best friends? yes I can understand the mutual attraction of these two bigger than life egos. They both want to run the US.

[Petrous]

Thanks for that. Well noted. Still, the acute pressure will only start now. Hopefully her resolve is strong enough to withstand the pressure . Time will tell.

[alba etie]

Johnny Reims
Yes and here in Austin , Texas there is a big celebration at the French Legation !

[Tyler]

OT, but Defense Secretary Ashton Carter is looking to allow transgenders to serve in the military.

Bradley Manning wasn't painful enough I guess.

Considering the US military is likely to be used on its own citizens soon, I welcome this change.

[GulfCoastPirate]

Every time I have ever seen him on TV Wilkerson has been superb.

[turcopolier]

GCP

Wilkerson was equally responsible with Powell for the crap they told the UN. He is doing penance. pl

[Matthew]

AE: the French legation is the oldest house in Austin—and well worth a visit. See https://www.google.com/search?q=the+french+legation+in+austin&rlz=1T4NDKB_enUS588US589&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0CAgQ_AUoAmoVChMImZCgyK_bxgIVTHs-Ch1iXQoD&biw=1680&bih=864#imgrc=lPUJTuZSsUfLrM%3A

Maybe we can tempt the Colonel to visit the Lone Star State!

[Matthew]

Petrous: Her fundraising may be dented slightly, but she will swamp the other Democrats. She will support the deal because the Democratic base will support it.

My prediction: the Israelis will get another $10 billion from us as compensation for our injury to their national pride (and paying it will confirm we don't have any).

[Matthew]

Col: Penance is good for the soul. As Oscar Wilde said, the only difference between a saint and a sinner is that a saint has a past and a sinner has a future.

[Will Reks]

All the right people are enraged by this deal. That warms my heart.

[William R. Cumming]

No doubt an historic negotiation and truly a magnificent effort by the USA and Secretary Kerry.

But only the agreements impact on Iran will be the true measure of its success.

[SAC Brat]

Will this allow Iran to lobby members of congress now? I bet the Iranians could out schmooze any other country's lobbyists. Is this what Israel fears most? Someone will come along and leave a fifty on the dresser instead of a twenty?

[r whitman]

Has the text of the agreement been posted yet?

[jdledell]

If Congress kills this deal, it will have minimal impact on Iran. So what if the US keeps it's economic embargo on Iran, the EU, Russia, China etc will do all the trading with Iran that she needs. Iran will become a nuclear threshold state regardless of whether the U.S. or Israel wants it. I simply cannot see the U.S. or Israel bombing Iran when no other country would support us. This agreement will go into effect for the next 10 years no matter what the U.S. Congress decides because the rest of the world will implement it.

[turcopolier]

r whitmen et al

The Text:

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/documents/world/full-text-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal/1651/

pl