So much news, so little time to work on this. I confess to having been distracted most of the day by telephone and internet time trying, finally successfully I think, to resolve a minor issue with the VA over allotment payments for my VGLI premiums. I got older and the premiums went up and I needed to make a small change. The only efficient US government people on the phone are the Social Security folks. I cannot say enough good about them.
US Military Strategy - Maybe Dempsey is trying to soft-pedal this but the references to Russia as an adversary are disturbing. How far forward are we going to lean against Russia in the context of new hand-picked senior people in the JCS who have probably been asked by the WH and Carter if they will accept the R2P view of the world? That is obviously Obama's view as well. If it were not, Obama would have gotten rid of the Harpies (male and female) by now. For god's sake, people look at how the first World War started.
Cordesman - He seems to want us to move from military alliances to civil-military alliances in which the US would "coordinate" everyone's actions. If this is the case, then Cordesman and his crew have become imperialists in the true sense of the word.
Boko Haram - The Borg has been pushing the line that the Nigerian army under new management has been eliminating the scourge. This most recent attack would indicate that BK has re-positioned itself and is still a big problem as are newly minted IS franchises in Afghanistan, and the Caucasus. This problem is growing, not shrinking. IMO it will be necessary to defeat the Caliphate on its home ground in Syria and Iraq, defeat it militarily and discredit it in the minds of Muslims or possible future Muslims who dream of a much greater 'Umma.
Syria SW Front - ISW reports with some detail on the "progress" the rebels are making with Israeli, Jordanian and US support. ISW seems to want to see this coalition of the unicorn/Nusra forces take Damascus or so weaken the Syrian government that it will fall as part of the general onslaught of Islamist forces from other quarters. ISW seems to think that would be a good thing. Why that would be escapes me. (irony)
Shark Alert - North Carolina is studying the shark menace. There have been several attacks on their coast that are reminiscent of the "Jaws" films. My suggestion for dealing with this threat to our civil right to wade in the water would be to stay out of the water.
pl
http://www.jcs.mil/Portals/36/Documents/Publications/2015_National_Military_Strategy.pdf
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/02/north-carolina-shark-attack-patterns-governor
"...defeat it militarily and discredit it in the minds of Muslims or possible future Muslims who dream of a much greater 'Umma".
I suspect that the numbers of Muslims who flock to the IS banner because of this motive is relatively small. The great majority appear to be those who feel they are oppressed by their governments, or by worsening economic, political and social conditions in their lands, or find unbearable the anarchy in their countries. They blame the West for this, either as being directly responsible or because of its support of their oppressive and/or corrupt and/or hapless rulers.
Such people find the IS's war against the West and its "stooges" to be an outlet for their own feelings, and many of the younger ones join in the fight.
Even if the IS is militarily defeated, I doubt it will be discredited among those who believe it is fighting the good fight. They will flock to the next banner raised to carry on the jihad.
This is quite apart from the significant support being provided to IS by the Wahhabis in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf.
Posted by: FB Ali | 02 July 2015 at 10:41 PM
FB Ali
No. Men do not willingly kill themselves to be freed from oppression or the "Stooges of the West." If they were coldly calculating of the odds of survival to a better life I would be inclined to believe you but they are not. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 02 July 2015 at 10:46 PM
Sir
I have been following the Greek financial situation for the past few years knowing that the Greek state could never repay it's debt and wanting to see how far and how long the can could be kicked.
We now have a referendum on Sunday. What I find fascinating is that the referendum asks the Greek people to agree or disagree with a proposal from the EU/IMF that is no longer on the table and is laden with jargon that even experts in government finance would have a hard time understanding what it actually means.
It seems to me that around the world the governing apparatus is unable to solve straightforward problems and are primarily concerned with PR and "optics". I am afraid that at some future date there will be a tryst with reality.
Sir, as a learned student of history, are we living in a unique epoch where head in the sand thinking rationalized with magical theories predominates worldwide or we've seen such periods before?
Posted by: Jack | 02 July 2015 at 11:20 PM
Shark Alert - North Carolina is studying the shark menace. There have been several attacks on their coast that are reminiscent of the "Jaws" films. My suggestion for dealing with this threat to our civil right to wade in the water would be to stay out of the water. - PL
A shark expert on FoxNews, just commented stay out of the water if people are fishing nearby. Apparently, the chum attracts sharks..lol
Posted by: Jose | 03 July 2015 at 12:53 AM
Another item of news is that Jim Webb appears to be entering the Democratic Party primary for president. I am not sure how technically "official" his announcement is, but such a direct statement should indicate that he will go ahead with the filing of paperwork to do it, if he has not already done so.
http://www.webb2016.com
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/wireStory/virginia-sen-jim-webb-run-president-32187971
He got conned by one or more of the "financial" people into voting for the TARP bankster bailout bill in 2008. One can hope that after seeing the results, and what has been going on since that time, and in Greece, he will see that the financial racket as structured, along with "trade" laws that send jobs offshore, are the two greatest dangers to this country.
Posted by: robt willmann | 03 July 2015 at 01:19 AM
Dear Colonel,
One other news item I came across on the saker, largely ignored, it seems that Donetsk is in the process of grinding a ukrainian offensive in cauldrons and expanding. It also seems as if Ukraine is exhausted, which could underly the Dempsey statements (as trying to fend off the soon to come: who lost ukraine argument by the R2P-ers).
http://newrussia.press/military/fights-in-donbass-01-07-2015/
Posted by: ISL | 03 July 2015 at 02:51 AM
All,
The 'National Military Strategy' document is a classic statement of what the British scholar Richard Sakwa – the son of Polish emigré parents – has described as ''The New Atlanticism'. As Sakwa notes, this has now come to dominate the thinking of elites in the European Union, almost as much as the United States.
His warning about its dangers seems to the point:
'In keeping with its hermetic and comprehensive character, the new Atlanticism has effectively made security an exclusive public good. If in the past security emerged out of a balance of power or some sort of arrangement where different states engage in diplomacy to manage difference, the new power system guarantees security for its own members and allies (although of course to a different degree for the latter), but increasingly lacks a mechanism to engage in genuine equilateral security relations with others. This is a stance of one-sided geopolitical nihilism, where the very principle of other states having geopolitical interests that do not coincide with those of the Atlantic community is considered an aberration that not only delegitimizes those who assert different interests, but easily leads to the demonization of the leaders and elites who oppose the atlanticist hegemony. Sanctions, media campaigns, and covert operations are all part of the comprehensive attack on outsiders and antagonists.'
(See http://valdaiclub.com/publication/77682.html .)
Posted by: David Habakkuk | 03 July 2015 at 03:07 AM
DH,
"This is a stance of one-sided geopolitical nihilism, where the very principle of other states having geopolitical interests that do not coincide with those of the Atlantic community is considered an aberration that not only delegitimizes those who assert different interests"
I think that that is precisely what we are observing.
Thanks for sharing the link.
Posted by: confusedponderer | 03 July 2015 at 03:56 AM
The present moment seems to me to contain enormous educational value. The Greek problem has revealed finally that profit is impossible, that the accumulation of wealth by one faction, means the loss of wealth by another. Until now, because there were different names for currencies and political borders, it was possible to live under the fiction that the wealth of some was due to their particular positive talent and that the poverty of others was due to their negative talent. Now that all the economies are in the same pot the artificiality of economic thinking is revealed.
It is baffling that while the Chinese stock markets fall by a quarter, China being a very large economy, the rest of the world continues to exchange shares and money impassively. In my view the fact that some gross quantitative phenomenon happens without any rippling effect means that the system has no reality. It is all a dream.
Posted by: JLCG | 03 July 2015 at 04:08 AM
Jack! Probably not a unique period. But also USA cannot make up its mind. After the catastrophes of WWI and WWII the USA fecklessly has allowed the EU designed and brought to you by Americans hoping to avoid wars now being allowed to slip away into the chaos created by a Globalized finance system unthinking and uncaring as to others.
Posted by: William R. Cumming | 03 July 2015 at 05:16 AM
Col.
Re: Turkey. What would non-covert Turkish involvement in the Syrian or Iraqi conflicts actually look like? Will there be a mandatory triggering event such as a terrorist act or Kurdish declaration of independence? Will it focus on opening trade routes at border crossings? Will it be against the Kurds and which ones? What internal political blowback from the Turkish military and Kurdish minorities? Would it be focused on territorial acquisition in Syria? Can we discern the early or leading indicators that would confirm capacity and the political will to act in light of recent Turkish elections and the currency collapse likely to befall them in the Fall. Perhaps a discussion worth a separate thread by those that know such things?
Posted by: bth | 03 July 2015 at 08:05 AM
Turkish trucking routes south. I wonder if Turkish political pressure to intervene in Syria could be lessened if a stable trucking route could be secured between Kurdish territory in eastern Iraq down south to Baghdad and beyond that would bypass the ISIS heartland? If that linkage in Iraq could be created, then some economic stress in Turkey to work a deal with ISIS in Syria might lessen. To accomplish this there would need to be some concerted cooperation between Iraqi Kurds, Iraqi Government forces, Sadr's group and Turkey. A heady lineup to be sure but one perhaps the US or Iranians could coordinate? If this trucking route were secured then some relief to the Turkish economy might develop. Economic improvement would mean political improvement I suspect.
It is off the main ISIS axis and perhaps IS is spread thin, though curiously 35 IS fighters were blown up by an Iraqi aircraft strike on a local police station they were hiding in in Taza, Iraq just southwest of Kirkuk.
Posted by: bth | 03 July 2015 at 08:15 AM
That is correct and aggravated by the death of NPT.
"You should be glad that we are letting you live and do not annihilate you." seems to be the implicit threat.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 03 July 2015 at 10:35 AM
Chinese capital markets are opaque and then many of the investors are also gamblers in spirit - a serious historical vice.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 03 July 2015 at 10:37 AM
no, the feckless thing was the hubris of the unilateral moment during which the Peace of Yalta and its institutions were dismantled.
No international actor is evidently interested in re-negotiating that defunct peace or replacing it. Every one thinks that as NATO states retreat from their historical expansion during the Unilateral Moment, they can advance their interests.
Do you think Iranians are the only ones who have expanded when the Unilateral Moment tide turned?
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 03 July 2015 at 10:41 AM
Jose,
I urge everyone to see the currently touring Great White Imax movie. As those things go, it's not great, but the shots where things ambush a fake seal are incredible.
For those into this kind of thing, sharks traditionally won't ingest a human, because our bone/fat ratio is too low. Which makes me wonder what beachgoers look like in NC. Maybe we've gotten to the point where our waistlines qualify us as honorary seals.
Posted by: shepherd | 03 July 2015 at 10:56 AM
An Iranian paper reported 600 Tajiks fighting in Syria against SAR - and another reported 100 Tajiks dead in the fighting in Syria.
Tajikistan never had any interactions with West.
There hundreds of thousands of Tajik men working in the Russian Federation as manual laborers; they are doing something about poor economic conditions in Tajikistan by working abroad and sending money home.
The facts are clear: Sunni Muslims from outside of Old Seljuk lands are heeding the call of the Caliphate.
By the way, there were Iranian Baluchis who went and joined the "Jihad in Afghanistan" on their own initiatives. They fought there for a while and then came back. They also heeded the call of "Jihad".
ISIS, Boko Haram and others of that kind are killing more Muslims, Shia or Sunni, than any NATO state citizen.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 03 July 2015 at 10:56 AM
Shep,
I was scuba diving a few years ago off the Catalina Islands and had a "face to face" with a great white, sans any sort of cage. We were adjusting our buoyancy off the anchor chain, and I saw over my partner's shoulder a shadow resolve itself into a shark the size of an SUV. It did about three long, slow circles around us before swimming off. There was an intelligence in that eye, but nothing you or I would recognize or be able to empathize with.
We went down to the bottom and then did an emergency ascent (eff the bends!) and spread the word to the rest of the dive group. Dawn dive, near a seal colony... In retrospect someone was rolling the dice on there not being a great white in the area. Regardless, an experience I'd not like to repeat.
Posted by: Tyler | 03 July 2015 at 12:17 PM
Shepherd,
I would guess that the sharks responsible for the attacks in the Carolinas are Bull sharks. They are highly aggressive, found on the eastern seaboard and not picky about what they eat. They will eat pretty much anything they can bite.
Coincidentally, "Shark Week" starts this Sunday, July 5th, on the Discovery channel. That's earlier than the usual August airing. I understand that National Geographic will be running a concurrent "Shark Fest" on their channel. Lots of shark stuff on TV this coming week. I would bet there will be some time dedicated to what's going on in the Carolinas.
Posted by: nick b | 03 July 2015 at 12:31 PM
All
As a former military and sports diver I can say without doubt that I hate sharks. I have physically run into them in the dark while swimming ashore from boats. I particularly remember the night in Limon Bay in Panama when I was swimming along helping to tow a neutrally buoyant but slightly submerged raft with our gear when my outstretched hand ran into a rough skinned thing that could only be a shark and a big one. The bay was full of sharks because merchant ships in the anchorage area illegally dumped their galley scraps over the side. I yanked my hand back and the startled shark left and in the process hit me with its tail. DOL pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 03 July 2015 at 02:20 PM
nick b,
lol bull sharks and shark week.
I remember the guy who said he could attune his aura to commune with sharks did so in a lagoon full of them and the minute he said "The sharks have accepted me as one of them" he got taken down and lost some meat from his leg as the shark said "lol psych" after taking a few bites from this joker.
Posted by: Tyler | 03 July 2015 at 02:45 PM
There is a stable trucking route between Turkey and Baghdad. It is called Iran.
A big industry in Turkey, especially for the AK voters is clothing. It gets its cotton from Syria. Especially IS occupied Syria. That is what will hurt.
Posted by: charly | 03 July 2015 at 04:06 PM
A large number of Pakistani and Afghan shias are joining Iranian forces to fight in Middle East just like the Tajik sunnis you mentioned.
http://www.rferl.org/content/persian-letters-afghans-pakistanis-killed-fighting-in-syria-for-iran/26977907.html
Pakistanis who died fighting for Iran were buried in Qom and it was reported in Iranian media
http://fa.abna24.com/service/pictorial/archive/2015/04/09/682377/story.html
This is typical Shia-Sunni jihadi zealotry.
Posted by: Farooq | 03 July 2015 at 04:37 PM
Tyler,
Why lol on the Bull shark? It's more than a reasonable guess.
As for the aura guy, yeah that was funny. But I recall that show was sort of a what not to do kind of thing, or something along those lines.
I've only ever encountered Reef and Nurse sharks in the water. But I have made my acquaintances with Mako, Thresher, Hammerhead, Blue, Black tip and Bonnet sharks on the end of my hook. I liked meeting the Mako so much, I took him home for dinner.
I like Shark Week, at least I did until the last two years which were filled with b.s. mock-umentories. Discovery is claiming this year will be a return to the good stuff and no more fake programming will be shown. Usually it's pretty good and something the whole family enjoys watching together. That alone makes it worth my time.
Posted by: nick b | 03 July 2015 at 05:59 PM
nick b,
No, you're likely right. I'm more laughing about how the guy picked bull sharks, one of the more vicious of sharks, to walk into the water with and prove his chakras were aligned or whatever hippie dippie BS he believed in.
Posted by: Tyler | 03 July 2015 at 06:25 PM