Where is "Peak Oil" now?

"U.S. crude oil stocks rose 2.5 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its weekly report, contrasting with expectations inventories would be down 2.3 million barrels.

 "The crude oil inventory rise was driven by a strong rebound in crude oil imports, which neared 8 million barrels per day," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital LLC in New York.

Crude oil imports from Saudi Arabia rose to 1.44 million barrels per day (bpd), up from 1.32 million the previous week, according to EIA data. Imports from several other OPEC-member countries also rose." CNBC

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"Peak oil, an event based on M. King Hubbert's theory, is the point in time when the maximum rate of extraction of petroleum is reached, after which the rate of production is expected to enter terminal decline.^[1] Peak oil theory is based on the observed rise, peak, (sometimes rapid) fall, and depletion of aggregate production rate in oil fields over time. Mostly due to the development of new production techniques and the exploitation of unconventional supplies, Hubbert's original predictions for world production proved premature.^[2]

Hubbert's original prediction that US Peak Oil would be in about 1970 was accurate, as US average annual production peaked in 1970 at 9.6 million barrels per day.^[3] However, after a decades-long decline, the successful application of massive hydraulic fracturing to additional tight reservoirs caused US production to rebound, hitting 9.2 million barrels per day in early 2015.^[4]"   

wiki - peak oil

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"... there was never really a short term shortage of petroleum.  The talking heads and the mindless anchors on TV business shows hyped and hyped the long term shortages until the unthinking came to believe in oil shortages as every day fact.  Talib, in "The Black Swan" describes this phenomenon.  Once something like the phony oil shortage became "fact" then the oil commodity was a good candidate for the "play" of traders of the wild eyed variety.  Now, they are getting out.  This reveals the lack of "fundamentals" underneath todays prices."  turcopolier - 2008

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 Peak oil enthusiasts -  Iranian oil is coming...  You look pretty stupid now.  pl 

 

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/07/21/oil-prices-fall-as-industry-data-points-to-rising-us-crude-stocks.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2008/08/the-price-per-b.html

Comments

[MRW]

I offer this as food for thought:

"Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers)"
by Michael C Lynch, President, Strategic Energy and Economic Research, Inc., and Research Affiliate, Center for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
http://www.energyseer.com/NewPessimism.pdf

[MRW]

@Tidewater,

It's true that Peter Wadhams' CV is impressive. But Wadhams first said that the arctic would be ice free in 2013, then 2014, now this year.

Leading scientists squabbled over Wadhams' methane claims on Andrew Revkin's NYT Dot Earth blog about it. Lots of links there for you to explore. There's nothing like scientists having a hissy fit with each other, and making claims that the other debunks. They use howitzers on each other.

"Arctic Methane Credibility Bomb"
http://dotearth.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/25/arctic-methane-credibility-bomb/?_r=0

[MRW]

That's a good book, Babak.

But this is what the production of solar stuff really entails, esp. wind turbines.

"In China, the true cost of Britain's clean, green wind power experiment: Pollution on a disastrous scale"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/moslive/article-1350811/In-China-true-cost-Britains-clean-green-wind-power-experiment-Pollution-disastrous-scale.html

Be sure to scroll down. Horrible what they've done to people's homes and livelihoods.

I like the fact that 80% of all energy use in 1800 AD was windmills. ;-)

[MRW]

@Imagine,

"References to your theory that oil refills itself?" Not my theory. I'm only saying that it's happened in Iran and other places. Not a theory. It happened.

"Geochemist Says Oil Fields May Be Refilled Naturally" (1995)
http://www.nytimes.com/1995/09/26/science/geochemist-says-oil-fieldsmay-be-refilled-naturally.html

"Are Oil Wells Recharging Themselves?"
http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Are-Oil-Wells-Recharging-Themselves.html

Abiotic oil is another matter all together. The Soviet Union had ZERO fuel or apparent natural resources after WWII. Truman said screw you to supplying the Russians; he left them to starve or freeze to death. Stalin put 2,000 of his scientific PhDs to work rereading every bit of western science looking for anything that could help them. Alfred Wegener, the same scientist who discovered Continental Drift and precursor to plate tectonics, was a German chemist. It was Wegener's work that led them to the abiotic oil theory. That's why they are still alive. They used this abiotic oil theory to provide fuel for their people.

[MRW]

And here is someone debunking Laharrere:
http://www.energyseer.com/NewPessimism.pdf

[Ulenspiegel]

"Wind does not have the scale to provide sufficient power; hydroelectric cannot and does not work in prolonged periods of draught - ask Iranian Energy Ministry about it."

OK, first try to understand the differenece between primary energy and final energy, then analyse the part ofthe final energy that is actually used: The fuel of ICEs is final energy but only 30% of the energy is used as mechanical work, the rest is waste heat, which of course has not to be replaced in an EV.

Conclusion: Wind turbines and PV are on a global scale without any problems able to provide sufficient final energy even for a growing population.

Both, monocrytalline PV and modern wind turbines, do not require any critical resources, i.e. we will very likely see some more doubling steps each 4 years.

Efficiency is in most countries quite low, we can without any technical problem reduce our final energy consumption by 50% and provide the remaining demand with clean electricity.

[Ulenspiegel]

And as counterargument the opinion of Prof. Ted Patzek on Lifeitself. :-)

[Imagine]

Thank you. Interesting. OK, Gold was a sharp cookie, it could be possible. I am with @Dismayed on this one, though; if this were happening at appreciable levels, then it would be a lot more noticeable by the large number of oil companies and oil-drilling countries out there. It's not; and we're still fighting over oil sources, while wildcat companies dry up and blow away shrieking like the last scene in The Mummy. In the meantime, gas is approaching $5/gallon in Calif.

[Imagine]

Thank you MRW for references!

[LeaNder]

Pat, I am no expert on the issue, but it feels to me that the term peak oil has been misused in a larger ideological fight.

The fact that there may be limits for a resource that needed quite some time to develop, seems pretty legitimate to me. How could it rationally be otherwise, if one hesitant about the idea that oil reserves are some secret-bio-chemical-perpetuum-mobile of nature one may respond differently. Oil is nothing but something created for "our developed" conveniences and economies and it will renew in pace with our needs?

[LeaNder]

"The percentage of subs that are nucs is very high"

BF, "nucs", apparently WRC understood, I didn't. Are you differentiating between subs powered by nuclear energy and subs that can or do carry nuclear missiles? How should I read "nucs".

[LeaNder]

I would need to locate the Dakotas (Texas?) but Colorado, fracking?

Basically, BF, I wonder if should or may ask you for a time frame for your Chevron experience?

Besides, some of my best friends including my most important best girl friend's husband are fans of Henlein, should I read him??

[J]

Saudi, ah yes the Hermit Kingdom #2.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I will await until Germany, on her current suicide pact, is completely dependent on solar energy and wind before implementing something based on renewables - outside of breeder reactors (which, like all things nuclear, are near and dear to the hearts of all Iranians).

[Babak Makkinejad]

So Chinese our feeding their own country men into the furnace of industrial production to satisfy the faddish whims of the Western people?

One wonders what happened to all the "anti-imperialists"?

Where the Red Detachment of Women when one need it?

I see in this another sad affirmation of my earlier observation - that so many non-Western people are dependent on the Western Civilization for new products, processes, techniques, and ideas - which they then proceed to implement without further thought.

"It is from the White Man, it must be right!"

And when the "White Man" discards something; such as Cold Fusion or Thorium Cycle; it is due to a conspiracy to keep the "Yellow Man" or the "Brown Man" or the "Beiger Man" backwards and dependent.

[Babak Makkinejad]

That cannot be true; USSR had the oil wells of Azerbaijan...

[Babak Makkinejad]

A very important video - VIDEO - As seen by an Aussie

Apparently, weather conditions are rather hot in Mexico: global warming is clearly totally out of hand... It's gone positively nuclear over there. A new form of cosmic energy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ePG6zUYvUZg&app=desktop

[different clue]

Fred,

I read somewhere that some of the Indian Nations used to do periodic burning and other management methods to keep large areas of habitat "deer friendly" so as to keep the deer numbers up for good hunting. Perhaps suburbia may be thought of as an accidental revival of the Indian Deer Gardens. The answer for our town might be periodic deer-roundups and killoffs and then harvesting and processing the meat for whatever beneficial end-uses the bambi-ists in authority can be brought to accept.

[different clue]

Babak Makkinejad,

Ohh . . . I don't know . . . Large-scale solar-electric will become practicable when the total life-cycle and support-system costs of every aspect of solar-cell technology become the same as the total life-cycle and support-system costs of other sources of large-scale electric power. So if
the coal-electric system or the natgas electric system is as cheap as concrete, then yes, solar cells will also have to be as cheap as concrete.

As to Solar Energy for process heat or indoor climate control or etc., that would be separately practicable or not for millions of separate sites and applications analysed millions of separate times. For example, my south facing home-windows let in sunlight which degrades into heat inside my home. That is Solar Energy helping out with my indoor climate control. And it winter, that is helpful. Multiply that by 50 million dwelling units with windows, and that is a large amount of harvested Solar Energy. For example.

[turcopolier]

different clue

When the Shawnee ruled the Shenandoah Valley there were white tailed deer and buffalo everywhere. The Shawnee also kept all other Indians under control. Settlers cleared the land and ate out the game until it was re-stocked in the 1890s.pl

[Harry]

Odd discussion.

Peak oil is a well defined term and has an associated theory attached. Peak oil is reached when global production stops increasing. Global production appeared to stop increasing in 2005 for a while but it has since risen substantailly and linearly with time. Therefore our host is right to note that we have not reached peak oil despite the forecasts.

I find the attached theory to be tautologically correct but not necessarily any time soon. We have no evidence that peak oil will be reached soon.

[turcopolier]

Harry
"Tautologically," eh? That is a fancy way of saying that you opine it MUST BE true. pl

[MRW]

Gee, and no one thought of that before. Remarkable.

[MRW]

"Conclusion: Wind turbines and PV are on a global scale without any problems able to provide sufficient final energy even for a growing population."

What?!? Trying telling that to the Marines. Don't you read energy papers?

[MRW]

But they didn't know it in 1945, Babak.