Why Israel fears Hizbullah as much as Iran

"Some military analysts have expressed skepticism that the revolutionary defense shield will hold up under a sustained assault from a wide variety of more lethal missiles attacking from different points of the compass and maintain the approximately 90 percent interception rate claimed by the IDF during last year’s Gaza conflict."  Foxnews

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"Major General Eshel could have alleged: "That if we only had another 20 I.D batteries, we could protect the northern border.” But he didn't. Why? Because he knows it is just a delusion. He further added a grim insight to the picture, indicating that possibly the I.D success could be attributed to the small weight of the warheads (18 kg. N.F) it had to tackle."  IDTS

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 "An unpublished 2013 report^[118] by Theodore Postol, Mordechai Shefer and another colleague argued that the official effectiveness figures for Iron Dome during Operation Pillar of Defense were incorrect.^[119] Although Postol had earlier lauded Iron Dome's effectiveness,^[120] after studying YouTube videos of the warhead interceptions as well as police reports and other data, he argued that "Iron Dome’s intercept rate, defined as destruction of the rocket's warhead was relatively low, perhaps as low as 5%, but could well be lower."^[119][121] Postol reached this conclusion mainly from an analysis of non-official footage of interceptions taken by civilians and published on YouTube."  WIKI on Iron Dome

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"The Pentagon believes that Hezbollah has a rocket arsenal of around 30,000.^{[citation needed]} According to IranTracker, estimates of Hezbollah's overall missile arsenal range from 40,000 to 50,000 large-caliber munitions of all kinds. Israel estimates that Hezbollah has about 40,000, most of them shorter-range rockets and mortar shells. Katyusha rockets"  Wiki on Hizbullah Armed Force

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 Hizbullah has enough rocket and guided missile weapons to devastate Israel as far south as Tel Aviv.  The Iron Dome system is not as effective as Israeli internal and external propaganda said it was during the Gaza War of 2014.  The Israelis know that Iron Dome would be overwhelmed by a massed Hizbullah attack and that Iron Dome would easily be swamped by the sheer number of incoming flying objects.

Israel does not possess the means to block such an attack.  Iron Dome is very expensive and the number of system required for an effective defense is prohibitive. 

In 2006 the IDF was shocked by the quality of ground resistance provided by Hizbullah militias in carefully prepared positions, replete with tank traps, canalization by obstacles of avenues of approach, lots of reinforced concrete, air conditioning in bunkers, buried cable communications, body armor, night vision equipment and the like.  The IDF ground forces do not want to repeat the experience.

The Israeli Air Force has little ability to find the launchers or caches of munitions possessed by Hizbullah.  The IAF's most likely course of action in the context of another Israel/Hizbullah war will be to ravage the whole country in the hope of intimidating Hizbullah into a de facto cease fire. 

Once again, Israel has no effective counter to an all out Hizbullah rocket and missile attack.  pl  

 http://www.foxnews.com/world/2015/07/31/israel-readies-iron-dome-on-lebanon-border-as-hezbollah-anticipates-arms-from/

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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_armed_strength 

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2014/07/iron-dome-may-not-be-as-effective-as-everyone-thinks.html

 

 

Comments

[confusedponderer]

Fred82,
you crack me up.

Just who in the US is calling for an alliance with the headchoppers again? And take it from me, sitting in the EU, I hear precious little of anybody here below 4‰ calling for collaboration with the Wahhabis - i.e. outside neocon and zionist circles and the governments in Tel Aviv, Ankara and Riadh nobody thinks that the Jihadis are worthwhile allies.

So, speaking about maintaining delusions about the Wahhabis being buddies - why again ist Israel currently treating in Israeli hospitals casualties from Al Nusra aka Al Quaeda in Iraq?

Don't believe me? Take it from the Jerusalem Post.

http://www.jpost.com/Middle-East/Report-Israel-treating-al-Qaida-fighters-wounded-in-Syria-civil-war-393862

Oh I know, it's different with the Izzies, because the Israelis, being badass and rational, KNOW that Al Nusra are enemies. They just ignore that for the moment, bedcause they think that Al Nusra can be used as a proxy against the hated Assad. That's how badass they are.

Point is, how is that in any way different that what you (falsely by the way) accuse the EU and US of? If it is a harebrained idea for the US or EU to do as you rightly point out, what makes it smart for the Izzies?

The idea that these folks can be steered has been disproven again and again. If anybody mainatined delusions to that effect, the fate of the Unicon Army's Division 30 should dispel any remaining doubts.

It is because of the very strong doubt in the wisdom of arming Jihadis that the US DoD so strongly resisted arming them, to the neocon's great chagrin. In fact, the US is doing the very opposite of what you accuse them of, while Israel is doing precisely what you denounce.

Genius!

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/articles/inquiry/16695-israel-may-be-arming-al-qaeda-in-syria

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-01-191214.html

http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/06/isis-saudi-arabia-iraq-syria-bandar/373181/

[turcopolier]

fred82

OK. You are not in Alexandria. Too bad, I was going to invite you to lunch. So, where do you live in Texas and what is your background? We nee to know that so that we can evaluate your ability to make the kind of judgments that you do. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

In regards to your last paragraph:

That might be true but what does US gain from her presence in Northeast Asia and the Persian Gulf and Levant?

I mean, does that presence translate for more security for the United States?

Will it lead Americans to now own 3 46-inch flat panel TVs in their homes?

[Babak Makkinejad]

I do not think that they are clowning themselves at all.

They made a decision that the core state of Civilization of Islam was their enemy and the bedou - the peripheral tribes of Islamic world - their bosom buddies.

We had the President of the United States haranguing the central state of Muslim Civilization from UAE - where there were days of jubilations after terrorist attacks on US on 9/11/2001.

To your last sentence:

That is how Arabs operate - but not Iranians.

[William R. Cumming]

"A distinction is generally drawn between reprisals and retortion which, while it constitutes a severe countermeasure to the acts which it is wished to end, nevertheless remains in accordance with ordinary law."

Thanks CP! See also RETALIATION!

[Fred82]

http://fas.org/irp/dia/product/knfms/knfms_chp3a.html

http://www.amazon.com/Defiant-Failed-State-International-Security/dp/1597975311/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1438714287&sr=8-1&keywords=defiant+failed+state

http://www.amazon.com/Last-Days-Kim-Jong-il-Changing/dp/1612346111/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1438714323&sr=8-2&keywords=bruce+bechtol

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/jul/18/history-north-korea-arms-dealing

http://www.forbes.com/sites/donaldkirk/2015/02/20/irans-irans-long-time-partnership-with-north-korea-on-nukes-and-missiles-may-scuttle-a-real-deal/

http://www.amazon.com/Tactics-Crescent-Moon-Militant-Methods/dp/0963869574/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1438714493&sr=8-1&keywords=tactics+of+the+crescent+moon

With that level of documentation, of which plenty more exists, it's kind of hard to dismiss North Korea-Iran dealings as a mere "neocon" fantasy. Additionally, to use an example of my own, would you view the act of selling pistachio nuts and sheep entrails to average citizens in the same light as selling expertise and weapons to gangsters and convicted felons? I don't think so.

[Fred82]

Col Lang,

I might have taken you up on that offer sir.

I currently live in the Dallas area and spent some time in East Asia and the Middle East. Additionally, I am well read and have dealt with a plethora of interesting people with a diverse set of backgrounds. Several relatives also did extensive business in the ME.

On top of that, my upbringing included a fair amount of contact with individuals like drug dealers and gang members.

[confusedponderer]

If the US stopped supporting the Saudis with training and spare parrts, their air force would cease to fly rather quickly.

Modern weapons are hard to use without training. The US about always offers training and spares and not just the weapons. It's the same with North Korea.

There's your long term partnership well short of a common agenda already.

[Fred82]

Actually,

I would say the Iranians have been operating like that for a long time. They always struck me as a pretty politically astute bunch.

That and I'm not sure how much sense it makes to call Iran the core state of Civilization of Islam. Persian civilization predates Islam by a wide margin and in some conversations with Iranians, I have picked up a view Islam is a form of Arab imperialism.

[Babak Makkinejad]

"I have picked up a view Islam is a form of Arab imperialism."

Then your view would be wrong.

[Fred82]

Never said it was my view but it would be kind of hard to argue Islam hasn't been used as a form of Arab imperialism in the past.

Remember, I have also said it wouldn't surprise me if Shia Islam was currently being used as a form of Persian imperialism.

With that said, I have heard the view from some Iranians Islam is a form of Arab Imperialism and Zoroastrianism is the true Persian religion. I do not know how prevalent that view is, particularly in Iran itself, and generally heard those view points from the younger generation. I kind of came away with the impression the older generation was more into Islam.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Imperialism: the policy of extending the rule or authority of an empire or nation over foreign countries

That might have been true until 9-th century for Arabs - never since then.

What you are stating is just not true; and your Iranian informers are ignorant fantasists.

But you are entitled...

I suppose Judaism is a form of Hebraic Imperialism?

[Fred82]

Go back and find an instance where I actually endorsed Israel's policy vis a vis Jabhat an Nusra.

In fact, I clearly remember saying Israel and the United States' interests are not one in the same and the US government should acknowledge that and act accordingly in the best interests of the United States.

I would definitely say taking down Assad and providing any support, even if accidental or minimal, to groups like JaN are both against the interests of the US. I would also question whether either action actually serves Israel's national security.

That said, your implication Tel Aviv views the Wahhabis as pals is a stretch. The Israeli support you have documented is limited and clearly looks like an attempt to pursue a "temporary mutual interest." On the other hand, certain entities in the West do seem to think the Wahhabis are friends and/or allies.

[Fred82]

Actually,

The Iranians I talked to grew up in the IRI and emigrated to the US as adults. I would hardly call them ignorant fantasists. Might their views have been shaped by personal prejudices and/or experience? Whose views aren't? If you would like to explain why they are "ignorant fantasists", be my guest.

Wahhabism in the 18th Century and beyond has been used as a tool of Bedouin Arab imperialism IMO.

Does Judaism have the same history of imperialism the Persians, Islam, and certain Christian movements have? No.

Though just to be clear, you are aware not all Jews are Zionists and not all Zionists are Jews right.

[William R. Cumming]

P.L. and ALL: Does the IC of the USA do any specific assessment of the outcomes and lessons learned from military actions anywhere in the world? Example fighting in 2006 between Hizbullah and Israel?

What is the best open source assessment of the 2006 fighting?

[Babak Makkinejad]

That they come from IRI does not make them any less ignorant.

So, any yahoo American is an expert in US History?

I do not think so.

I think it is not useful in terms of conceptualization and historical understanding to ascribe imperialism to a religion.

Is Buddhism imperialistic?