"Some military analysts have expressed skepticism that the revolutionary defense shield will hold up under a sustained assault from a wide variety of more lethal missiles attacking from different points of the compass and maintain the approximately 90 percent interception rate claimed by the IDF during last year’s Gaza conflict." Foxnews
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"Major General Eshel could have alleged: "That if we only had another 20 I.D batteries, we could protect the northern border.” But he didn't. Why? Because he knows it is just a delusion. He further added a grim insight to the picture, indicating that possibly the I.D success could be attributed to the small weight of the warheads (18 kg. N.F) it had to tackle." IDTS
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"An unpublished 2013 report[118] by Theodore Postol, Mordechai Shefer and another colleague argued that the official effectiveness figures for Iron Dome during Operation Pillar of Defense were incorrect.[119] Although Postol had earlier lauded Iron Dome's effectiveness,[120] after studying YouTube videos of the warhead interceptions as well as police reports and other data, he argued that "Iron Dome’s intercept rate, defined as destruction of the rocket's warhead was relatively low, perhaps as low as 5%, but could well be lower."[119][121] Postol reached this conclusion mainly from an analysis of non-official footage of interceptions taken by civilians and published on YouTube." WIKI on Iron Dome
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"The Pentagon believes that Hezbollah has a rocket arsenal of around 30,000.[citation needed] According to IranTracker, estimates of Hezbollah's overall missile arsenal range from 40,000 to 50,000 large-caliber munitions of all kinds. Israel estimates that Hezbollah has about 40,000, most of them shorter-range rockets and mortar shells. Katyusha rockets" Wiki on Hizbullah Armed Force
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Hizbullah has enough rocket and guided missile weapons to devastate Israel as far south as Tel Aviv. The Iron Dome system is not as effective as Israeli internal and external propaganda said it was during the Gaza War of 2014. The Israelis know that Iron Dome would be overwhelmed by a massed Hizbullah attack and that Iron Dome would easily be swamped by the sheer number of incoming flying objects.
Israel does not possess the means to block such an attack. Iron Dome is very expensive and the number of system required for an effective defense is prohibitive.
In 2006 the IDF was shocked by the quality of ground resistance provided by Hizbullah militias in carefully prepared positions, replete with tank traps, canalization by obstacles of avenues of approach, lots of reinforced concrete, air conditioning in bunkers, buried cable communications, body armor, night vision equipment and the like. The IDF ground forces do not want to repeat the experience.
The Israeli Air Force has little ability to find the launchers or caches of munitions possessed by Hizbullah. The IAF's most likely course of action in the context of another Israel/Hizbullah war will be to ravage the whole country in the hope of intimidating Hizbullah into a de facto cease fire.
Once again, Israel has no effective counter to an all out Hizbullah rocket and missile attack. pl
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iron_Dome
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hezbollah_armed_strength
Questions about the success rate of Iron Dome bring to mind the tests we did on some missile defense system here in the US a few years ago. The details are hazy to me (but I'm sure others here are familiar with them) but I vaguely recollect that even when the path, trajectory and speed of the dummy target were provided to the missile defense operators, they were not able to hit it.
It ain't easy, people. Not for nothing is it called rocket science.
Posted by: Swami Bhut Jolokia | 31 July 2015 at 02:13 PM
Has the US IC ever completed an NIE on Israeli risks and vulnerabilities to its enemies and related threats to US?
Posted by: William R. Cumming | 31 July 2015 at 02:30 PM
Any comments re whether Hizbullah is being worn down, somewhat/alot in Syria? Or being 'harden/gaining experience there? I opt for a bit of both...but personally, I doubt they are as strong as they were the day before they made the decision to enter the Syrian conflict.
Posted by: jonst | 31 July 2015 at 02:59 PM
SBJ, and that is why there is so much emphasis on directed energy weapons and rail guns. We are learning to build them to fire many rounds (or shots) per minute and that is needed.
The problem with rocket powered interceptors is that they are big and, on a per round basis, expensive. When you can shoot a relatively dumb round at a fixed target and can shoot many of them at the same time and the defense has expensive and therefore limited numbers of interceptors, you get Hamas vs Iron Dome.
Posted by: BabelFish | 31 July 2015 at 03:21 PM
Has Israel ever considered that it might be a better idea to make friends instead of provoke another war?
Posted by: Croesus | 31 July 2015 at 03:37 PM
Babelfish
Much, much more importantly you get Israel vs. Hizbullah. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 31 July 2015 at 03:53 PM
Agree, Pat.
Posted by: BabelFish | 31 July 2015 at 04:07 PM
Dr. Postol blew the pixie dust decorating the purported effectiveness of Patriot during Desert Storm. Had to check wikipedia to make sure my memory was right. Here's the link. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MIM-104_Patriot#Success_rate_vs._accuracy. For his troubles, his integrity and patriotism (pun intended)were questioned. Looks like he's still doing good work. Carry on, doc!
Posted by: HDL | 31 July 2015 at 04:40 PM
In a cone of silence, when do tactical nukes become the better way to avoid your army humiliated by getting kicked out of Lebanon again? Which of course you are forced to do as it is an existential conundrum, most moral course for the most moral forces, et alia.
Posted by: KRedfire1 | 31 July 2015 at 05:20 PM
That would be the last act of State of Israel.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 31 July 2015 at 05:38 PM
I wonder how hard Hizbullah has to work to maintain their operational security given the high probability that the entire Christian and Druze population and most, if not all, of the Sunnis are more than happy to collaborate with the Israelis against them. Not to mention the stay behinds entrnched from their long occupation.
If they have managed to maintain security it speaks loads for commitment and esprit de corps, I should think.
Posted by: jr786 | 31 July 2015 at 06:02 PM
This finally makes sense to me why Israel and USA are so against Assad in Syria, and why they would risk helping Sunni extremists..its because Israel/USA fear Hezbollah more than the Sunni extremists...and are actually trying to use the Sunni extremists to defeat Hezbollah (and Hezbollah sources of support Syria and Iran)....and I guess Israel/USA believe that they can eventually manage/defeat Sunni extremists if they ever get in power in Syria...seems risky.
Thanks PL, once again, for helping me understand just what is going on over there....
Posted by: walter | 31 July 2015 at 06:25 PM
walter
I cannot help but say that US policy in the ME remains in thrall to Zionism, that and the idiocy of the larger Borg. I applaud the Goat Boy Messiah's fitful attempts to free us but alas, it has been in vain. The absurdity of our hostility to Hizbullah and the Syrian government is beyond belief and in no way reflects US interests. With Mr. Jefferson I fear that God is just. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 31 July 2015 at 06:58 PM
jr786
It is not difficult. They trust no one other than their own. I habituated Shia social centers in south Beirut, have played many games of Tawla there with pictures of Shia divines staring down at us. They never pretended to trust me. I was grateful for that. They were interested that I was a knight of the Holy Sepulchre. They always talked of it. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 31 July 2015 at 07:04 PM
I agree with Pat - Israel faces a formidable enemy in Hezballah. My nephew, a Golani captain, still talks about the harrowing time at Maroun al-Ras during the second Lebanon war. He said that Israeli "intelligence" estimated 3 Hezballah fighters in the area and it would be easy for Israel to capture the strategic point. Instead they ran into fortified positions, anti-tank missles and enough fighters to repel the Israelis. My nephew hopes to be out of the IDF before they ever go back into Lebanon.
It is pretty common knowledge in Israeli military circles that Israel really has no effective way of combating Hezballah's tens of thousands of missiles. Their strategy is simply to carpet bomb Shia civilian areas in hopes of putting political pressure on Hezballah to stop quickly. Another relative is an F-16 jockey and confirmed that Israeli "intelligence" is terrible when it comes to Hezballah positions and strength. During the second Lebanon war he said he bombed many an empty field that were supposed to contain Hezballah bunkers.
Posted by: jdledell | 31 July 2015 at 07:10 PM
As well as French policy - for all appearances...
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 31 July 2015 at 07:13 PM
jdledell
SWMBO says that only Jewish Americans who love the US more than they fear the goyim can free us. I agree. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 31 July 2015 at 07:37 PM
This assumes the other side doesn't get rail guns. If you have a rail gun you don't need expensive rockets. I doubt Hamas will get rail guns anytime soon but i'm not so sure about Hezbollah. I think there would only be a few years between an operational Israeli defense and an operational offensive hezbollah
Posted by: charly | 31 July 2015 at 10:00 PM
Any good links to history of rail guns?
Posted by: William R. Cumming | 01 August 2015 at 07:16 AM
P.L. and ALL: Is the study of Israel in any way officially off limits to the IC?
Posted by: William R. Cumming | 01 August 2015 at 07:18 AM
WRC
No. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 01 August 2015 at 07:21 AM
WRC
Policy makers pretty much always think they are smarter and better informed than the intelligence people. They think that if the intelligence people were smart they would be policy people. So, it really doesn't matter if the IC studies Israel. The policy people will act on their own wonderful opinions anyway. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 01 August 2015 at 08:08 AM
According to this:
http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/1.604039#!
Iron Dome only intercepted about 27% of 180 rockets that were fired (2014). The remaining 70+% resulted in zero deaths.
Posted by: bks | 01 August 2015 at 10:00 AM
slightly OT: Why it is important to never allow unrestricted no-passport travel w/Israel: "Alleged leader of Israeli organized crime ring gets 32 years": Drug lord here in San Fernando Valley of L.A., running massive international smuggling organization linked to Israel-based Abergil crime family, finally brought down by FBI/DEA: http://news.yahoo.com/alleged-leader-israeli-organized-crime-ring-gets-32-175519975.html
makes one wonder about Israeli international arms smuggling, which has not been heard much of recently.
Posted by: Imagine | 01 August 2015 at 01:53 PM
The IAF's most likely course of action in the context of another Israel/Hizbullah war will be to ravage the whole country in the hope of intimidating Hizbullah into a de facto cease fire
This is reminiscent of the way the Germans attempted to deal with partisan attacks in the Balkans during WWII: hang a dozen civilians, taken at random, for every serviceman killed. The Lebanese people will suffer terribly. On the other hand, the world will be rid forever of the abscess of mass theft and genocide currently styling itself "Israel".
Posted by: traducteur | 01 August 2015 at 06:48 PM