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22 June 2015

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Lars

I don't disagree. There has always been warming and getting colder. In 1658, in the winter, it got so cold in Scandinavia that Swedish troops could invade Denmark over never again frozen waters. 600 years before that it was actually something green to be found in Greenland.

My point is that now we face a more complex world, with more complex results.

Lars

It may be a matter of trying to identify the problem before any remedy can be arrived at. I am convinced that the "blame" is rather universal and the remedy will have to be. While many have arrived at a consensus, the political systems are as in many so many other ways unable to do much.

Which may very well make matters worse, even a lot worse, before the repairing can commence.

Valissa

"What I would like to suggest is that the kind of global "treaty" (one that apparently Obama thinks doesn't have to be ratified by the US Senate) envisioned by the UN has the potential to introduce the greatest tyranny ever yet seen on this Earth."

Yes, I do not understand why so many people don't see this huge power play!

When people are forced into only two boxes, such as 'believer' and 'denier', given a complex, multi-dimensional issue, it is a clear sign that propaganda is at work. Also it is the role of science to be skeptical, and when it's not that should be a cause for concern. Please note that I agree that humans often have very negative impacts on the environment and this does need to be addressed in some way, as does the way energy resources are managed. Humans and especially corporations need to be much better about cleaning up after themselves. But, it should give people pause to realize that the very same .01%-ers that so many here despise are the one calling the shots in this great climate game, and will be the ones profiting from it. I often think of it as a form of "pre-disaster capitalism."

Will Reks

Babak,

I have no problem if Econ-Nazis want to go live in the Utopia of No-Internal-Combustion-Engine - perhaps they could join Freedonia?"

I've heard versions of this from liberals, conservatives, and whatever else on just about every political issue there is. Nothing we do or don't do on this issue is likely to affect any of us in our lifetimes. It's not realistic to think that we're going to adopt changes that will reduce our standard of living or prevent economic growth. I'm not sure how seriously to take your concern for developing nations.

cville reader

Very perceptive of you, Valissa, to understand that much of the green movement in the US has been funded by very wealthy individuals, through a network of foundations. Those foundations have been heavily influencing Obama's EPA, mostly behind the scenes. The EPA, in the meantime, has been stonewalling both FOIA and congressional requests regarding contacts between members of Obama's administration and green NGOs.

Something of particular interest to me is the amount of money donated to green NGOs by Silicon Valley types. No doubt there is a killing to be made in the development of the "smart grid", which, if developed, will be able to track in real time the most minute details of energy usage in every residence in the US.

And in the meantime, Pope Francis, seems to have stepped in it. His ideas about how to solve global warming through some sort of global accord, are first, completely unworkable (China will cheat), and second, in violation of the VERY Catholic principle of subsidiarity (the organizing principle that matters ought to be handled by the smallest, lowest or least centralized competent authority.)

I would also suggest that this is what Obama truly wants his legacy to be-- and he has successfully positioned himself for his next job when he leaves the White House.

He could care less about foreign policy.

Valissa

Lars, that is so true! But the question is, what can realistically be done to mitigate the negative effects of either natural or man made climate change? I think this is a question worth exploring, but I am more concerned right now about the ideology profiteers and what they'll inadvertently do to the planet in the name of "saving" it.

Do you trust large international bureaucracies, which are heavily funded by big oil and other major corporations, to address this issue successfully?

Are you aware that the Kyoto Treaty was used to steal land from indigenous peoples and poor farmers in 3rd world countries?

Stephanie

cville reader,

The topic of contraception was on the table during Vatican II precisely because there was an ongoing discussion about modifying the Church's teaching on birth control in light of the Pill (and which teaching had already undergone modification previously to permit the use of the rhythm method). A commission was formed to offer recommendations on the subject. Even after an attempt to pack the commission, a large majority recommended further modification of the Church's teachings on contraception. Paul chose instead to accept the recommendations of a very small conservative minority using notably dubious reasoning.

As you probably know, Humanae Vitae actually came as a very unpleasant shock to many Catholics, and the Church is still feeling the negative repercussions today. Couples who have the ability to choose do tend to elect to have fewer children, and the underlying reasons for that trend are largely immune to papal exhortations.

Farooq

One of my favorite song on the subject by my favorite band. Enjoy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kQeHSC-kwlk

Babak Makkinejad

Take it seriously for without the internal combustion engine even more people will die in Africa.

By the way, they are not developing countries; they are poor countries that are stuck in poverty - almost permanently.

Internal Combustion engine will go along way in improving their day-to-day life.

Babak Makkinejad

That dope head, Ira Einhorn who murdered his girlfriend and chopped her up, he was a protégé of another one of the idle rich - this time in Philadelphia & Montreal.

His claim to fame was that the launching of Saturn 5 rockets depletes the ozone layer irrevocably - "and we are 25 launches away from destruction of the Earth's protective ozone layer.".

JJackson

It is a 3 minute animation covering the last 250 years called Welcome to the Anthropocene. It looks at population rise and resource consumption. http://vimeo.com/39048998

I wrote around the topics in this discussion a few years ago and will not bore you with it all here, but if anyone is interested the thread can be found here. It covers population rise, land/water usage, Phosphorous (as an example of unsustainable resource use) but its main value is the links to data source to be found in the foot notes.
https://flutrackers.com/forum/forum/the-pandemic-discussion-forum/jjackson-s-workshop/92163-some-thoughts-mainly-about-water-and-population

Valissa gave some links re the cyclical nature of our climate which is caused by changes in our orbit around the sun, the sun's internal cycles etc over which human induced climate change is over-layed but the more worrying aspect is the historical record of rapid climate shifts followed by more stable periods of the new climatic state. If you are not familiar this then I would recommend looking at 'the Little Dryas' and some of the graphs of Earth's climate at different time scales. The last 10,000 years - covering human recorded history - is uncharacteristically stable. It is all adequately covered in Wikipedia.

Babak Makkinejad

I only trust a bureaucracy staffed by Danes; even the English have lost their touch.

GulfCoastPirate

Valissa wrote: 'Based on these charts we're about due for another ice age, which was the eco-fear of the 70's.'

No it was not. There was one disinformation article in Newsweek which was universally panned by the scientific community. By continuing to repeat this lie you lose all credibility.

Valissa

cville reader, yeah somehow I don't think Kissinger & Associates and the like will be paying Obama for consulting or speeches.

It is interesting to see which sub-groups of elites are donating to green NGOs. It strikes me that there is a strong religious undertone to these donations which are supposedly going to help SAVE the planet. Reminds me a bit of the abuse of indulgences that happened in the late middle ages https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indulgence#Late_medieval_abuses (to tie my comments back to the pope and the church).

steve

You can already track energy use in the most minute detail, it just takes a few days. What bad thing will happen if it can be done in real time? OTOH, knowing how power is needed and how you need to distribute it can save real money.

http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/526541/smart-wind-and-solar-power/

Rather than step in it, the Pope simply cited the best (actually his experts did) science available. That is all you can ever do. A bunch of rich guys donating to green energy? There are also a bunch of rich guys shilling of fossil fuels. Cant say that I would pay much attention to either group in forming my opinions.

steve

Not quite correct GCP. There were relatively few articles on climate change in the 60s through the early 70s as we didn't have very effective ways to measure temperatures in many parts of the world, especially at high altitudes. However, of the roughly 100 papers published about 60% suggested we were heading towards warming and 10% suggested cooling, with the others neutral. However, you got to put pictures of Racquel Welch in furs in your articles if you went with the cooling argument, so that is what the media went with. (Since I strongly approve of such pictures I can hardly blame them.)

SteveG

Babak
So the Ayatollah of Rock and Rolla
(Road Warrior1980) was a
Liberal Democrat?

cville reader

Steve,

Regarding the smart grid, there are all sorts of privacy and security implications about having that kind of information. There was an article in Politico a few months ago that said that the data from that kind of detailed information is worth billions and billions of dollars to various businesses.

There is also the potential that it could lead to rationing. which according to some, is a real possibility in the future, especially if the EPA is successful in implementing the draconian measures it has outline in its Clean Power Plan.

Right now, solar and wind power are not viable alternatives to produce large scale energy. Fine with me if you want to drop $20-$30K on some solar panels for your roof though. Just don't ask me to subsidize the infrastructure you will need to stay connected to the grid when you start freezing in the winter.

SteveG

My two senators plus Vice President
Hubert Horatio Humhrey
Walter "Fritz" Mondale would
have agreed with Ayatollah Khomeni.

JJackson

Two question relating to your last post.
"... in violation of the VERY Catholic principle of subsidiarity (the organizing principle that matters ought to be handled by the smallest, lowest or least centralized competent authority.)"
I don't see how the Catholic church fits this description. It seems to be a very hierarchical command structure with a military chain of command, edicts come from the top and woe betide anyone who defies them.

Re. China
Why would you think the Chinese would be the most likely to circumvent an agreement? They have been very active in pushing solar technologies (to the point of being accused of dumping. They are hamstrung by having a lot of coal fired power stations and we have out-sourced much of our manufacturing, and attendant carbon emissions, to them.

A few years ago the US and China were at loggerheads over CO2 emission so I used the online Gapminder software to graph the per capita CO2 emissions of a few countries over time. I was a little surprised to find that China was at the same level (2010 from memory) as the US had been in 1925, when the Model T Ford was still in production.

readerOfTeaLeaves

SST published a link to an article by William Polk about Syria; the years leading up to the war were characterized by extreme drought (2006 - 2011). Combined with large dust storms (2001 - 2011) that removed topsoil, this put Syria into a 'dustbowl' predicament. A heat map from 2010 shows a frightful rise in temperature, with concomitant fall in rainfall -- the result being too little agriculture (including fodder for livestock). Unable to access (depleted) water resources, farm families moved to already crowded urban centers, and things devolved from bad to dreadful.

SST also published a series of slides created by Col Lang to explain some basic history and tenets about Islam. It is worth noting that he traced the origins of Islam to a period characterized by drought: the population must have been under tremendous stress at that time.

IOW, climate shifts - particularly drought, or even one dry season - have far reaching social, political, and even religious consequences.

Arguing over whether or not the Pope should, or should not, have instigated the encyclical strikes me as a side show: it's a bit like arguing over the number of angels that can dance on the head of a pin. Who cares? We can argue endlessly, but that conversation is a dead end. It's a done deal. Move on.

Daily, we are seeing the political and social impacts of too little ag production, combined with population pressures in regions that have depleted soils. Regions with depleted soils have ripple effects, including habitat loss (and species extinction). The more marginal the habitat, the quicker the decline.

Unfortunately, without changes to our economic beliefs and assumptions -- which result in tax advantages for polluters and entities that destroy habitat, among other problems -- we won't be able to create the kinds of incentives required to enhance the environment that sustains us all. It's a tough slog. Looks like I need to add the encyclical to my (nearly endless) Reading List.

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2013/11/download-part-i-understanding-syria.html

Syria is a Cautionary Tale; if it is the Exhibit A, we're at high risk for extinction.

Ulenspiegel

"I have no problem if Econ-Nazis want to go live in the Utopia of No-Internal-Combustion-Engine - perhaps they could join Freedonia?"

If you were smart, you would check how the politicla compositions of the proponents of green politics (outside the USA) actually is and historically were before you use such a crap like "Econ-Nazis"

BTW is should be Eco-Nazis; Econ-Nazis would be derived from ECONomical. :-)

The Nazi implies that ideology is more important than ratio, something that can in many case be excluded,i.e. Nazi term implies ignorance on your side. Herrman Scheer had an intellectual depth you can only dream of.


Your hope the progress in Africa is coupled to ICE is nonsense, ICEs produce 80% waste heat, that is the price to pay for using the Carnot-Cycle, and requires either much money for the import of fuel or competes in case of biofuels with the production of food.

The obvious alternative EV is much much better, you only have to use your brain.

Babak Makkinejad

Thank you for your comments.

One only has the brain that one has, not the one that one wishes.

With the brain that I have, I see not practical alternative to the internal combustion engine - in Africa or anywhere else.

Those who advocate its replacement in Europe and North America (always West of the old Diocletian Line) are dangerous fantasists that should be sent to Africa or India to learn from the masses.

How about you guys in Germany putting your brains - evidently superior to my mine - and create a simple, easy to build and easy to maintain inexpensive internal combustion engine that runs on vegetable oil?

Something that Africans could manufacture and operate?

Babak Makkinejad

Ayatollah Khomeini almost certainly understood as well that the masses would have aborted female fetuses in their desire for "golden pecker" man-child.

Just like their counterparts in China, India and elsewhere.

Babak Makkinejad

Syria had problems but the Gulfies and France and Turkey are responsible, in my opinion, in flaming the fires there.

There are 1000 Russian Nationals fight there - according to one estimate.

600 Tajiks are said to have gone there to fight for Islam.

There are no shortages of basic foods and commodities. There is not the willingness to give food to people for free for ever and ever.

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