TERROR ATTACK IN FRANCE: What happened … and who's responsible ?

By Patrick Bahzad

 

Let's cut the chase and get straight to the point. This is what is established as of now, 5.30 pm CET.

 

 

 

 What happened ?

 -        At approximately 10 a.m. this morning, a van entered an chemical production site in the suburbs of Lyons, in south-eastern France. Contrary to what was said in previous reports, the van didn't crash the security gate, but had proper clearance to enter the premises, a facility registered on the so-called "Seveso List" (a list of sites producing hazardous dioxin-like compounds).

-        Having entered the site, the driver crashed his van into a gas tank, probably expecting this to cause an explosion likely to damage the chemical production-line itself.

-        Although the crash caused an explosion, only two people were injured. The driver of the van then tried to ignite an oxygen tank but was knocked-out by a fireman who had rushed to the scene. He was immediately turned over to  French Gendarmerie and taken into custody.

-        Shortly after the police had secured the perimeter, a severed head was found in the immediate vicinity of the attack (the body was found in a nearby bush), together with a black Islamic banner and another flag with inscriptions in Arabic. Both pieces of evidence are currently being analysed and translated.

What can we say about the driver/attacker ?

-        French officials confirmed that the driver of the van is 35 year-old Yassin Salhi, a French citizen of North-African origin. He grew up in the East of France and lost his father while still a teenager, a recurring profile among a number of French Jihadis.

-        Yassin Salhi was known to French counter-terrorism police, but was never arrested or sentenced in relation with a terrorist enterprise.

-        However, he had been under surveillance between 2006 and 2008. This surveillance was ended, given that it hadn't come up with any evidence suggesting Salhi might be involved in terrorist activities.

-        What the investigation showed though, was that Salhi was in touch with a number of individuals known for their radical Salafi views. The group he had an informal connection to was particularly active in the area Salhi grew up in.

-        One man Salhi was in contact with is known as an Islamist radical who had close links to Algerian terror organisation "GIA", a group which was heavily involved in the bloody insurgency that rattled Algeria in the 1990s. The "GIA" was also responsible for a terror campaign in France in 1995, after a failed attempt at hijacking a French commercial airliner in December 1994 (the plane was stormed by French Special Forces in Marseilles and the four terrorists were killed during the assault).

-        In September 2012, Salhi was sentenced to six months imprisonment with probation, for an anti-Semitic attack on a Jewish teenager.  

-        In 2013, he popped up again on the radar of French intelligence, for his personal ties to another group of Islamic radicals. At the time, he wore a beard and a "djellaba", the long white robe that typically identifies Salafis in France. Surveillance at that point however wasn't 24/7 and it appears that Salhi managed to fall of the grid for longer periods, possibly up to two months at one point, without any indication of his whereabouts. In 2014, surveillance was ended again, with no hard evidence having turned up.

-        In late 2014, that is about six months ago, Salhi moved to his current neighborhood, which is located some 15 minutes away from the site of the attack, which makes for two facts the officers in charge of the investigation may find interesting.

-    Another feature of possible interest is that by that time (late 2014), Salhi had shaven his beard and wore normal "Western" clothing. Furthermore, although a very "conservative" Muslim, he never went to his local mosque.

-        Salhi used to work as a delivery man and driver in a local transport company, a sub-contracting firm for the chemical production site he attacked. This is also the reason he managed to enter the site using an official security clearance his company had been issued.

-        He is married and father of three children.

Which company was targeted ?

-        The company that was targeted is a local branch of US "Air Products".

-        "Air Products" is worth some 30 billions USD and is traded on Wall Street. The Lyons' branch is a very small site, employing no more than 150 people.

-        A few months ago "Air Products" was awarded a huge contract by Saudi Aramco Company, for the construction of the world's largest gas production site in Jazan, Saudi Arabia.

Who are the victims ?

-        Two employees have been lightly injured.

-        The man who was decapitated has been identified as the owner of the company Salhi was working for. Both men drove off this morning in the same van and were heading to the gas plant. It's unclear yet at which point Salhi killed his victim.

Have there been other arrests ?

-        A possible accomplice of Salhi was arrested. Witnesses saw him driving around in the area of the attack. The police took him into custody after checking the number plate of his car.

-        Salhi's wife was also taken into custody and is currently being questionned by French anti-terror police. Further arrests may follow.

Who's to blame ?

-        The usual suspects: Al Qaeda and ISIS.

-        ISIS has recently called for attacks against the West, but had already done so repeatedly in the past.

-        Al Qaeda on the other hand has claimed responsibility for the Paris attacks of last January against the newspaper "Charlie Hebdo" which claimed 12 lives. Almost simultaneously however, an associate of the two "Charlie Hebdo" attackers stormed a kosher supermarket in a Paris suburb and killed four customers. This man claimed allegiance to the "Islamic State".

-        The level of sophistication of the attack (at least in theory) and the degree of preparation it might have taken could plead again for an Al Qaeda inspired attack, especially if it turns out Yassin Salhi was a "sleeper agent", just like the two "Charlie Hebdo" attackers.

-        On the other hand, the gruesome killing method of Salhi's victim has been the trademark of ISIS in recent months, even though Al Qaeda is known to have used it as well in the past.

-        The Salafi groups Salhi was part of seem to fit the profile of an older "Jihadi" generation, more likely to pledge allegiance to Al Qaeda than ISIS. But further self-radicalization of Salhi, including through online appeals by ISIS to murder "Crusaders" in the West, cannot be excluded either.

-        The analysis of the flags recovered on the scene of the attack and the investigation into the terrorist's environment should give the police more clues as to which of the two organisations is actually to blame.

Comments

[Marcy]

M. Bahzad,

Thank you for the update on this situation, very informative. Now I will spend the rest of the weekend obsessed with nuclear plant safety because if ISIS or AQ can target a gas plant and get inside easily...nope, not feeling safe AT ALL.

[DC]

France has quite a problem on its hands. Somehow it must further engage its Muslim citizens to enthusiastically cooperate in policing this criminal, insurrectionist activity.

[Patrick Bahzad]

I would go a step further and say the West has quite a problem on its hands, including and especially the US !

[DC]

Of course we have always had challenges embracing our immigrants' perspectives, but ours is nothing like France's. We will continue to lead by example by embracing our many traditions. But France? Theirs is only one tradition, and that is To Be French. Their laws are designed to encourage French-ness, whereas our laws are designed, in very large part, to encourage civil behavior. Quite a big difference.

[Patrick Bahzad]

I'm not arguing about challenges immigrants face in France or in the US, that is a different matter. I'm talking about the terror threat in the West in general.

And in that regard, make no mistake, the US are on top of these criminals' list ... Unfortunately, contrary to what you seem to think, there's quite a large pool of potential recruits in the Us for this kind of sh*t.

You're dangerously underestimating the level of the threat your country is facing. US police and intel isn't though and that is what counts.

[Will Reks]

I think this is relevant and you are quite right. ISIS/AQ are starting to target/recruit people who have the right placement and access to be able to do some real damage. We in the US have the conceit that people here assimilate much better than in most of the rest of the West. This is broadly true, in my opinion, but far from absolute.

[DC]

I respect what you are saying sir, and agree in part, but I do not think it is wise to construe the threat as monumental as "The West" vs. [what?]. I think it is more appropriate to assess the threat levels differently, based on the different societies under attack. French "socio-culture" (for lack of a better term) is more weak than U.S. socio-culture, for example, as a basis for insurrectionist attack like the one today. Similarly, Turkish socio-culture is different from Bedouin Arab culture. To some degree, it makes sense to mentally strip religion from the analysis and look at the turmoil going on within each respective landscape, then add religion back in to see if it exacerbates the situation to such a degree than some humans are willing to sign themselves up to die for the insurrectionist cause rather than merely put their lives at risk while fighting for change. Again, for example, I don't think that latter reality is nearly as true here in the U.S. as it is in France. We've got kooks doing crazy sh*t here, whereas I do not get the impression the French onslaught of killers are what we would call mentally disturbed. Although religious fervor is very similar to Crazy, imo.

[Abu Sinan]

The last attack in Paris went back to AQAP in Yemen. It is possible this one could as well. AQAP is Yemen has grown and has resources and land it did not have before due to KSA bombing. AQAP in Iraq are about the only winners in Yemen so far.

[Medicine Man]

An open question: What are the problems associated with identifying and prosecuting/deporting people prosletizing certain radical Salafi views, such as the people who presumably helped radicalize Salhi? Obviously this notion presents a real problem with regards to civil liberties, but how far are we required to tolerate people's views when they are intentionally inciting others to violence?

[Patrick Bahzad]

DC,

I understand where you coming from with this feeling that France is more at risk than the U.S. obviously, we have a larger share of population that is Muslim and has trouble finding its place in French society, for whatever reasons.
However, I think you're really underestimating the threat potential there is in the U.S. itself, believe me, I know both our countries and I know what I'm talking about. If I gave you a list of all the "western" islamic terrorists who have been caught, you would be amazed at the number of American citizens among them. again it's not about being paranoid or not going out our door anymore but having a realistic idea about the threat level, which is not to say something is gonna happen, that's the problem. You may think it's all good but as they used to say "remember the Alamo" now it's "remember 9/11" !

[DC]

If they are not citizens, then they do not have citizens' rights -- so most countries would have less of a legal barrier to deporting them, I think. To dot that, they would have to pass a new law making clear that risk to state security is more important than human rights laws. If they ARE citizens, then clearly you have a problem and a new law would have to be passed that abridges freedom of speech to the degree that some speech is criminalized. The U.S., at least, would have a problem with that one. More realistically, the U.S. will have to continue what it is doing -- monitoring suspects and getting warrants to do so -- and arrest the insurrectionists/criminals at the cusp of doing anything that would harm human life.

[rjj]

This is not even at the top of the news at Google. Did my daily calamity check but had no idea anything had taken place. What are CorpsMedia doing with it. Is it getting more or less air time than Supremes on gay marriage?

Could DC be winding PB up - IOW testing? testing? testing?

[rjj]

"the driver crashed his van into a gas tank ... Although the crash caused an explosion of the gas tank (filled with oxygen), only two people were injured. The driver of the van then tried to ignite the oxygen tank but was knocked-out by a fireman who had rushed to the scene. He was immediately turned over to French Gendarmerie and taken into custody."

Impressive rapid response. Where is closest fire department?

[Patrick Bahzad]

A chemical plant like the one that was attacked has its own fire brigade in house.

[Valissa]

Some greater agenda seems to be at work here...

Attacks hit three continents amid fears of escalating Islamist violence http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/attacks-hit-three-continents-amid-fears-of-escalating-islamist-violence/2015/06/26/c3a76c90-1c08-11e5-93b7-5eddc056ad8a_story.html

Militants beheaded, bombed and gunned down victims on three continents on Friday, killing more than 60 people and raising fears that a global surge of terror strikes could be imminent.

There was no immediate reason to believe that the disparate attacks — at a factory in France, a beach resort in Tunisia and a mosque in Kuwait — were connected.

But the three incidents followed an appeal on Tuesday from the Islamic State’s spokesman, Abu Mohammed al-Adnani, for Muslims to mark the holy month of Ramadan by carrying out acts of “jihad,” or holy war.

[rjj]

You had said it was very small operation so I assumed it would not have an in-house brigade sitting around waiting waiting waiting - was thinking dedicated staff tho. Would make sense to have someone performing that duty as part of security. OKAY. THANK YOU!!!!

[Patrick Bahzad]

In house brigade is required by law for that kind of site. Was probably just 3-4 men from local fire brigade being sent in on daily basis.

[crf]

I wouldn't worry. Different levels of security. And is hard to see a small bomb leading to a catastrophic accident. Reactors are fairly passively safe.

[crf]

Who's responsible? It's not so much a who, it's a what. The past particulars of the people who carry out these attacks are not very notable: perhaps some criminality, perhaps some sympathy for jihadist sentiment. When the perpetrator's past is examined, in hindsight there may be the appearance that if only some authority had followed up some path that led to the attack, it might not have happened. I am only guessing, but I wouldn't be surprised if there may be 10000 people in France that could be fitted up.

What is responsible? Infectious militant Islamism. I don't think it is an accident that Infectious militant Islamism is breaking out in Europe at the same time as the ongoing European recession/depression while states are turning their backs on strengthening their secular societies.

[Patrick Bahzad]

That is all well and good - and very debatable - but I'm not arguing this from a ethnological sociological point of view, I'm not an academic.
Thx for the insights into terrorist profiles, sounds like you're a genuine expert.

[Amir]

I insist that the problem is self made: Mr. Sarkopoleon and Bernard Henri Levi, did not serve the interests of France nor Europe, by attacking Libya, killing Khaddhafi and setting up a weapons pipeline from there to Syria.

I guess they say "what you sow, you will reap". They supported Polygamist-Feminists in Libya and Liver-Eaters in Syria, they are reaping Jihad in Saint Tropez. Bashar told you so.

As long as the premium is paid by others, they bet on the stock of our collective security and support both sides, while speeding their tentacles with widdening conflicts.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Are you justifying a heinous terrorist act ? It oddly sounds so .. Better be careful now what you say on here. It's a crime to condone terrorism and plenty of people found themselves prosecuted for it. Besides what you say is BS, we've been targeted by Islamist terrorism way before 2011. These criminals always find a reason to justify what can't be justified. I don't bother about the what if and what if not scenarios. End of story.

[Valissa]

Patrick, much as I love your posts and comments in general, I think you are being a bit harsh here. Numerous articles have been written about the "blowback" from various US and NATO policies.

As far as I can tell, even policy choices that seem "right" at the time can generate unexpected and negative consequences. Observing that blowback occurs and pointing backwards at decisions made can hardly be seen as condoning terrorism,

Blowback and the Consequences of Obama's Foreign Policies http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2012/06/blowback-and-the-consequences-of-obamas-foreign-policies/258020/

[AEL]

A look at the raw numbers suggests that fixing up obvious tripping hazards on stairways would be a higher societal priority than Middle Eastern terrorists operating in the West. 30,000 (mostly elderly) people in the USA died from unintentional falls in 2013 according to the CDC.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Well valissa, there are people who also argued about 9/11 that the U.S. had it coming. Still think I'm being harsh ?

We can't let our actions be dictated by people who are going to use any excuse they can find to justify their hate against the west.

Of course it doesn't mean we should do stupid things or ignore the consequences of our policies. Blowback is one thing but as far as Im concerned, Im not sure what blowback France should be experiencing for what it did. If you elaborate maybe I can give you a clearer answer. But don't mention Libya please, because in libya we actually Helped the Islamists oust gaddafi !

people who always quibble about western responsibility for everything that's wrong in the world are playing right into the terrorists' hands because they are ideologically bolstering the jihadis' case for attacking us on whatever pretense.

there's a war going on and in a war you don't pick up the enemy's narrative and defend it against your own people.