ISW should stop labelling its analyses as "intelligence."

This is yet another good piece of work, almost.  Its methodology and logic are very familiar to me and reflect the presence in its work force of a good many who learned the trade in the US Armed Forces.

Unfortunately,  the work is fatally marred in its Conclusions section.  This section abandons the work of intelligence analysis for policy advocacy in that it clearly presses for an alliance between the US and the Islamist forces now fighting the Syrian government.

It does that in the apparent belief that these forces can be controlled and manipulated after their victory and installation in Damascus as the triumphant vanguard of Islamic rule throughout the ME. 

This is, of course, absurd.  The victors will be unwilling to hand over power to a feeble "army" of semi-secular rebels of the sort favored by ISW, McCain, Graham et al.  Would they fight each other?  Of course they would.  This kind of reduction to struggle amongst Muslim factions is a never ending feature in Islamic history.  Does the word tawa'if mean anything to ISW?  From Islamic andalus to post Soviet Afghanistan the pattern is recurrent.  The inevitable intra-Islamist struggle would not be a fertile ground for R2P inspired installation of a "liberal" government.

The attachment of a "policy prescriptive" conclusion to this document calls into question the integrity of ISW's work products when they are labeled "intelligence forecast."

One must ask if ISW is affecting Obama Administration policy or is it merely indulging the obsessions of its proprietors?   

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/likely-courses-action-syrian-civil-war-june-december-2015 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taifa 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Civil_war_in_Afghanistan_(1992%E2%80%9396)

 

Comments

[turcopolier]

Pete Deer

Is your point a rhetorical hypothesis? pl

[b]

Significant parts of the Obama administration obviously come to the same conclusion as the Kagan neocon shop - without doing ANY analysis.

[Haralambos]

Pete, did you mean this: "as long as they or their kids have to do the actual fighting" or just the opposite?

[Booby]

b

Analysis is much easier if you start with the conclusion & then cherry pick the data to reach that conclusion. Shameful & dishonest; but, unfortunately a popular methodology inside the Beltway.

[turcopolier]

booby and b

An experiment to learn if there are any shreds of professional pride still alive among them. pl

[Imagine]

Honest question: Would this be better if they published policy recommendations as a separate paper than their analyses? Or do you believe that intelligence people should not do policy recommendations, and if so, why? Thanks.

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

The think tanks write what their donors want to hear. They do it very well since they get paid to do it. They do not mention that the USA has been at war in Iraq for 25 years. They do not hint that since the end of the draft, the US Army is undermanned for the wars in Europe, South Asia, Africa and Middle East. They have blacked out that the USA has had to use puppet and proxy forces on the ground who either run away or turn on their pay masters. They avoid talking about the USA trying to take down the Syrian government with Sunni Islamists while selectively bombing them at the same time.

The media more or less reprints the White House and corporate talking points but blurts out the military’s viewpoint now and then:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-white-houses-iraq-debate-military-brass-pushed-for-doing-less/2015/06/13/8db17e30-1138-11e5-9726-49d6fa26a8c6_story.html

The fact is the USA is face down in the Long Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq that cannot be won but is unwilling to leave. Trillions of dollars are spent on nothing; yet, once again, a new Fort will be built next to Ramadi with some 450 American souls. But, the leaders decided that it would be too risky to place forward air controllers on the ground in Iraq. It would be too effective and aid the Shiite militias too much.

There is no strategic vision to end the wars and secure the peace. The Sunni Shiite Holy War that Israel, Turkey and Saudi Arabia are promoting and which the USA is enabling is not going to end well.

[turcopolier]

VV

"The think tanks write what their donors want to hear. They do it very well since they get paid to do it." Really? You mean they have an agenda and the people who work for them are not all trust fund kids.? pl

[turcopolier]

Imagine
"Intelligencer" is about information describing the existing world or the world that is likely to be. "Policy" is about depicting a world one wishes to create. If the same people do both, then the "intelligence" is hopelessly compromised. pl