By Patrick Bahzad
Let's keep this short and sharp !
First of all, the good news is, we know now where about 3 billion US taxpayers' money has gone. In a TV interview he gave on Sunday to Iraqiya TV, Prime-Minister Haider al-Abadi stated that his security forces had lost 2 300 Humvees in the conquest of Mosul by the "Islamic State" in June 2014.
And while the PM has been rather elusive about the other equipment, weaponry and ammunition that was lost in the assault on the Northern Iraqi city, it doesn't take lots of imagination to figure out that ISIS' arsenals must have been replenished in the same way as their vehicles fleet.
Since the fall of Mosul, the US had agreed to a new sales contract for an additional batch of around 1 000 Humvees, part of which has been destroyed, or captured again, by ISIS in the fall of Ramadi, in mid-May. Not surprisingly, it is the Shia Militias (the so-called " Popular Mobilisation Units") that seem to be more and more in the driving seat, as has been forecast time and again on SST.
The current leader of the main Shia militia, Hadi al-Amiri, who's also Transportation Minister, seems to be the man in charge. In an interview he gave on the very same day Prime-Minister Abadi talked to the Iraqiya TV network, Amiri derisively qualified any statement about a soon to start counter-offensive in Ramadi as "laughable".
In the internal power-struggle between the pro-Western Abadi and the Iranian backed Amiri, it looks like the one calling the shots is not the Prime-Minister of Iraq. What seems to be at stake here is not just the strategy that is going to prevail in the fight against ISIS, but also the influence the two not so shadowy players behind their Iraqi proxies are going to have. The US had relied so far on the official Iraqi Army, supported by coalition air-power, and had advocated for tuning down the role of the Shia sectarian groups, in an effort to prevent any further antagonizing the Sunnis North and West of Baghdad.
However, according to Amiri - a long time personal friend of Iranian al-Quds leader, Qassem Soleimani - the military strategy against ISIS is now going to be based on a more gradual approach, aimed it isolating pockets of ISIS territory from each other, in order to disrupt their operational and territorial continuity, and prevent any risk of major ISIS' action against Baghdad. Only when these two priority goals are reached, could there be any discussion about retaking Ramadi and Anbar.
Not mincing his words, Amiri went as far as saying that the prime minister had already agreed to his alternate strategy “We send the key points of the operation to the prime minister, and he approved them”, Amiri said. “The prime minister is a civilian. It is not his job to lay our plans”.
Couldn't be any clearer, could it ?
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Snark Alert: Patrick, it looks like a great opportunity for after-market custom parts sales for Hummers, to ISIS. This could help teach them the value of private enterprise. They could learn about coupons, sales days and extended warranties.
Posted by: BabelFish | 01 June 2015 at 08:37 AM
BF,
You mean try a real "engagement" policy with the friendly locals in Ramadi, Fallujah and Mosul ? Maybe show them the benefits of integration into the world economy as a way out of of their disenfranchisement within the current Iraqi State ... why not ?
Might as well throw in a couple of "happy hour" vouchers for halal menus at KFC or Burger King.
Posted by: Patrick Bahzad | 01 June 2015 at 08:51 AM
O.T. no doubt, but I thought that you might enjoy Will Self's satire on the complaints being made by some British tourists that their holidays on Kos were being spoilt by the unscheduled arrival there of refugees fleeing the conflict that we in the West stirred up in Libya.
http://www.stopwar.org.uk/news/will-self-responds-to-yet-another-daily-mail-attack-on-migrants-fleeing-war
Posted by: Bryn P | 01 June 2015 at 11:04 AM
It might amuse you to look up what "Kos" means in Arabic:
Syrian refugee: "Thank God for Kos that saved me..."
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 01 June 2015 at 11:07 AM
Duffel Blog has this to report:
Insurgent Offensive Bogs Down After Capturing US Humvees
G-Had
June 12, 2014
OPFOR
MOSUL, Iraq — Just days after the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) seized control of Iraq’s northern cities of Mosul and Tikrit, the group’s lightning offensive has reportedly ground to a halt after ISIS unsuccessfully attempted to use dozens of captured U.S. M1114 Humvees.
“We were considerably more mobile with Toyota Technicals,” complained ISIS cell leader Ibrahim ibn Abdullah ibn Sabah Al-Rahman. “But once we captured these unreliable monstrosities, our leadership started worrying about our safety.”
“Now we can’t even leave our base without at least four up-armored Humvees and an RPG team, plus we have to have three ground guides with reflective belts every time we are backing out of our parking spot,” Al-Rahman said as he angrily gestured towards a dilapidated Humvee. “And don’t get me started on all the protective gear we have to wear. Even the suicide bombers were told they wouldn’t be getting into paradise if they were caught in one without a helmet, flak, gloves, and flame retardant clothes!”
During the course of the interview, Al-Rahman was interrupted by at least one angry phone call from ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, demanding to know why none of the Humvees had their drip pans and chock blocks in place.
The M1114 HMMWV, known to the public as the “Humvee” and to the American soldier as “the fucking Humvee,” is the U.S. military’s all-purpose mobile field kitchen, capable of cooking up to six soldiers alive in as many minutes. During the Iraq War, the U.S. discovered that they were also extremely effective at uncovering IEDs, leading to the war-winning strategy of driving over them as frequently as possible.
At the end of the Iraq War — in a gesture of revenge — the U.S. abandoned thousands of Humvees in Iraq, an act compared to the Soviets seeding millions of land mines in Afghanistan, and with similar results once the Iraqis began to drive them.
The Humvees were captured by ISIS on Tuesday after being abandoned by Iraqi soldiers unable to locate the vehicles’ keys, which they claimed the U.S. advisers who alerted them to this feature had never provided. Although ISIS attempted to use the vehicles immediately, they were unable to properly employ them because of the Humvee’s incredibly poor fuel consumption, as well as unsuccessful attempts to obtain spare parts from manufacturer A.M. General in Indiana.
To make matters worse, in an almost-kharmic act of retribution, retreating Iraqi soldiers have begun emplacing landmines and other ordnance along the roads, easily blowing up the few ISIS Humvees that have ventured south of Mosul.
“In the name of the Blessed Prophet, these things are death traps!” exclaimed one of Al-Rahman’s fighters. “How the hell could anyone drive these things around a parking lot, let alone into a combat zone?”
Al-Rahman then reminded him that you go to jihad with the mujahideen you have, not the mujahideen you wish you had.
Following a 35% increase in casualties caused by repeated Humvee rollovers, Al-Baghdadi called a halt to offensive operations, pending a series of mandatory safety classes for ISIS fighters. ISIS sources have vowed that the offensive would resume as soon as the classes had achieved 100% attendance, which would also give them time to capture some wreckers so they could at least tow the Humvees into battle.
ISIS has also apparently captured a dozen U.S.-made MRAPs from the Iraqi Army, but after two days had still not figured out how to drive them out of the motor pool.
Duffel Blog correspondents John Mittle, Dark Laughter, Dick Scuttlebutt, Jay-B, Frederick Taub, and Smelly Infidel contributed to this article.
SEE ALSO: Marines Begin Crashing Ospreys On Okinawa >
Read more: http://www.duffelblog.com/2014/06/isis-iraq-humvees-captured/#ixzz3bpFuB8IZ
Posted by: PirateLaddie | 01 June 2015 at 11:51 AM
Qods Force commander Soleimani reportedly spotted in Anbar province http://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2015/06/qods-force-commander-soleimani-reportedly-spotted-in-anbar-province.php
Major General Qassem Soleimani, the commanding officer of Qods Force, the special operations branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, has reportedly been photographed in Iraq’s Anbar province alongside Shiite militiamen. Additionlly, Soleimani was photographed with the head of the Popular Mobilization Committee, who is listed by the US as a terrorist, and the leader of the Imam Ali Brigade, an Iranian-backed Shiite terror group.
The photographs of Soleimani in Anbar and Baghdad were published by Haidar Sumeri, an Iraqi who is supportive of Soleimani and the Iranian-suported Shiite militias that make up the Popular Mobilization Committee.
The Long War Journal cannot independently verify the authenticity of the photographs. However, US military and intelligence officials have told The Long War Journal that Soleimani was in Iraq visiting with Shiite militias and commanders over the past several days.
Posted by: Valissa | 01 June 2015 at 11:59 AM
Patrick,
The competition is going to be tough with ISIS sleepers selling your stock out from under you to service the vehicles they already received via the "five finger" discount.
Posted by: Fred | 01 June 2015 at 12:04 PM
"... the pro-Western Abadi...."
That is the popular narrative in the West (probably embellished by Abadi and Co).
I would suggest NOBODY in Iraq is pro-West.
Various groups and people ally themselves with the US for gain or leverage in their own power games. It would be foolish for the US to believe that there is any commitment involved beyond self-interest.
I don't think any Iraqi thinks or believes that the US is there for anything except furthering its own interests.
Posted by: FB Ali | 01 June 2015 at 01:08 PM
PB,
You're being ironic but I'd kill for a "fast casual" chain ala Chipolte that did Middle Eastern food.
Posted by: Tyler | 01 June 2015 at 01:09 PM
PL,
Thanks for this. Its all true.
Posted by: Tyler | 01 June 2015 at 01:12 PM
General,
You're right of course, but for clarity sake I had to show the opposing factions and their backers, which are the US on the one hand and Iran on the other.
Alliance with the U.S. would be circumstantial also, I agree, but the Shias alliance with Iran may be a strategic long term feature of iraqi politics on the contrary.
That being said, Pro-west can mean various things, for example expecting or being told to wait for coalition airstrikes and pocket half the money that is supposed to go to the Iraqi army into your own pockets. But basically I agree with you.
Posted by: Patrick Bahzad | 01 June 2015 at 01:29 PM
Thank you for that. Given the shenanigans which so many young Brits get up to on holiday abroad it seems highly appropriate.
Posted by: Bryn P | 01 June 2015 at 01:33 PM
Don't you have that yet in the US ? Might be a lot tastier than that awful food I had on my last trip to DC ! Nothing beats a good chorba, a lablebi or a mloukhia in my view ... Or some Lebanese Kebbeh and mezzeh ! You should try if you get the chance ! Or beryani and bustanyia ... Need to stop, getting hungry already !!
Posted by: Patrick Bahzad | 01 June 2015 at 01:39 PM
"It would be foolish for the US to believe that there is any commitment involved beyond self-interest."
Unfortunately that's the problem. Our Ship of State is being sailed by the clueless crews from the Exceptional Elite suffering from a severe case of Impeccable Imperialist Insanity. The first crew went charging out into the world only to get stuck on a sandbar and,to show they are strong by not admitting mistakes, cried "Stay the Course". As for the current crew, it has all trying to steer their own course and stabbing each other in the back with their compasses while Captain Presider appears to pout that things aren't going according to plan.
All of us are merely standing by waiting for the event that leads to a point of no return by the Global Game Players. Interesting times indeed.
Posted by: Thomas | 01 June 2015 at 02:15 PM
OT, but SST does address events in Ukraine from time to time. The Saker sees ominous portents in the immigration of Mikheil Saakashvili from Georgia to Ukraine, and his immediate appointment as governor of the Odessa area. Ominous especially for residents of Transnistra.
http://thesaker.is/from-odessa-to-transnistria-will-crazy-misha-start-another-war/
Posted by: ex-PFC Chuck | 01 June 2015 at 02:39 PM
PB,
The closest I can think of is "Zoe's Kitchen", which does Med/Greek style food.
I remember when we went to Kirkush (Kurdish enclave outside of Mosul that fell hard to ISIS), I felt comfortable enough each time to give cash to a local kid and have him get me falafel.
Posted by: Tyler | 01 June 2015 at 02:41 PM
That's too bad ! If you ever come over to mainland Europe, you let me know and I'll figure out way to get you to my in laws' restaurant (they half Tunisian half Lebanese) and they make a whicked falafel and shawarma chicken ... We could go nuts on a beeka valley wine ... Actually I would go right now if it wasn't for mother in law's endless blabbering ! Guess I hit the nail on its head when I called this piece "food for thought" ;-)
Posted by: Patrick Bahzad | 01 June 2015 at 03:13 PM
Tyler,
Just visit Detroit's favorite suburb, Dearborn, MI.
Posted by: Fred | 01 June 2015 at 03:46 PM
Fred, no doubt a strong ME community in Dearborn, question is, did they stick to the old ways, in terms of food at least ?
Posted by: Patrick Bahzad | 01 June 2015 at 04:01 PM
"Pro-west can mean various things, for example expecting or being told to wait for coalition airstrikes and pocket half the money that is supposed to go to the Iraqi army into your own pockets"
That is the point, isn't it? And then, just half of it? In Iraq?! Was Ahmed Chalabi ever content with so little? How many of those Humvees were not lost but sold?
US influence in far away places is to a good extent about money, dispensed directly or through surrogates like NED, or driven freelancers like Soros.
Assets like Shaakashvili, or Nuland's favourite, 'Yats', are being taken care of, which ensures their loyalty, and they are recycled if useful (witness the bungler of Georgia's disastrous war with Russia being given a second shot to do his worst). If they don't play ball, they're punished.
The thirty year war ended in the 'Religionsfrieden' which settled the differences between protestsnts and catholics pragmatically. 'Cuius regio, eius religio' was the motto, and it translated for the subjects into 'Wes Brot ich ess, dessen Lied ich sing' (whose bread I eat, whose song I sing), referring to church textbooks (protestant or catholic), depending on the region's overlord's affiliation.
That deal even had an opt out, if someone wanted to exercise his religion freely elswhere - that's how Huegenots came to Britain and Prussia. To ponder on that - whould that not be a solution for the Middle East? But I digress ...
The thirty years war, and its pragmatic conclusion are IMO as current as ever, and its pragmatic conclusion gives testimony of human nature.
Still, in light of today's cult ot political correctness and universal values it is unacceptably relativistic. It suggest after all that both sides were not just equal but, worse, equally legitmitate. The peace of Westphalia clearly lacked a guilty party whose fault it all was!
Still, to get back to the point where the historical analogy makes sense again - when you eat US bread, then you sing the US song - Freedom™ über alles.
The moment the US step back and cut the money, their eaters remember their old affiliations and ways and, devoid of nurturing shelter, rediscover their need for survival. That is to say that one can buy a lot of influence, and that that influence wanes the moment the US stop buying.
Because money not only can't change what people are, it also corrupts. If they are rotten, US money isn't going to make them any better, and if they are good, well, accomodating US interest (even more so given US preferences for lopsided deals in their favour) means making sacrifices (sometimes, as in 'Quisling').
The neocons are aghast at the 'loss of power' that would come with limiting such foreign engagement, and want to perpetuate that just as if paying for love (ask Cheney, deficits don't matter) is a great idea generally and an end in itself and as if the entire plan to 'redo the Greater Middle East' and rent claqeurs to make it seem cool has been more than a bloody sinkhole for the last decade.
The US sank approx three trillion in Iraq (and then there is Afghanistan, unaccounted for). Who got all that money? And what did it pay for?
For being kicked out, under Bush 43 already? And not just that, they had to leave because their forces were overstretched anyway, and, good for them, they managed to leave relatively gracefully, leaving behind sectarian civil war created by Bush's bright idea to destroy Iraq, high handedly administered by Lord Bremer of Baghdad and his court.
Posted by: confusedponderer | 01 June 2015 at 08:00 PM
CP,
Well said! It seems to me that a glimmer of reality is setting in (a meeting of the anti-IS coalition is soon taking place in Paris). After all, invading and restructuring countries hasn't worked (Afghanistan and Iraq), money hasn't worked, bombing and SF operations haven't, either. Not much left in the quiver, is there?
However, I'm not holding my breath for a new approach to evolve. It'll be more of the same, with a few tweaks here and there. No chance of just concluding these sticks and carrots don't work, so let's try something different. There's too big a stake involved for those who're connected with these military enterprises - politicians, generals, the money-makers in industry, think tanks, the media etc.
Posted by: FB Ali | 01 June 2015 at 11:30 PM
Patrick,
Which country are we talking about?
I know a place in Paris where they do some delicious falafel but which has now made it into most city guides...
So I'm keen to find a simple, no frils place where you can immerse yourself in the smells, flavours, sounds and feel of "comme la bas".
And thanks for your insightful pieces and not taking yourself seriously.
Posted by: Kerim | 02 June 2015 at 01:53 AM
Article about Kurds fending of ISIS. The most noteworthy thing is the picture of that captured alleged VBIED (and the somewhat surprising story how the Kurds stopped it). The thing looks like something straight out of Mad Max II.
http://www.thenational.ae/world/middle-east/german-missiles-give-peshmerga-respite-from-isil-truck-bombs#full
Given that the article is about Kurds using Milan missiles, why not on that sucker?
Posted by: confusedponderer | 02 June 2015 at 03:48 AM
A newspaper article from the UAE giving us a very strange story about how a single peshmerga sniper was able to stop 5 VBIEDs through deflating the tyres and killing the drivers with his accurate shooting ... factual mistakes about MILAN missile as well: a German wire-guided missiles capable of knocking out any moving ground target ? certainly not with the F1 or F2 shaped charge it couldn't !! Thx for the link though, quite interesting read as you said ...
Posted by: Patrick Bahzad | 02 June 2015 at 04:27 AM
Kerim,
I wouldn't recommend that Falafel place in rue des Rosiers ... first of all, it's always busy and service gets sloppy as the day goes by.
If you are or go to Paris, and you want to try something different and tasty, I would recommend a small place called "L'homme Bleu" (rue Jean-Pierre Timbaud, in 11th arrondissement). It's a Berber place, fantastic food and not too expensive.
Posted by: Patrick Bahzad | 02 June 2015 at 04:35 AM