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26 June 2015

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FB Ali

I'm afraid such a report from an Iranian source can't be termed "incontrovertible". Further suspicion is raised by the picture in the report: if Turkish SF were indeed to aid IS, I doubt they'd do it in full uniform.

William R. Cumming

So has Erdogan "bet the business" of a modern secular Turkey on his becoming the Caliph? Or has he hedged his bets?

Babak Makkinejad

They evidently did not expect to be captured. The battle must have reached their position before they could withdraw.

Lisa

Nice to see someone else finally 'getting it', the mad dreams of the Turkish part of Coalition of the Terminally Insane, CoTI (US, Israel, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the minnows). What could possibly go wrong?

They all have their 'mad dreams' all of them unrealistic and contradictory, but never mind.

Saudi Arabia: To create a religious (Sunni Wahabbi) Caliphate across the ME.
Cleared of all Christians, Shiites, Allawites, Kurds, etc.
Israel: To have the Shiites cleared from Southern Lebanon and grabbing the Litini River at long last (maybe some more of the Golan too).
Turkey: To grab most of, or all of Syria as a start to a new Turkish controlled Caliphate (and clearing the Kurds as well).
The US: trying to appease Israal and Saudi Arabia at the same time, supporting their aims (going all in on Sunni Wahabbism) while trying to avoid being forced to do the 'heavy lifting' militarily.

Al Nasarah and IS are their 'pawns' doing the dirty work on the ground. AN ha always stayed on track (and gotten the rewards, now including whitewashing them publicaly, even in the Guardian). IS went off reservation when it moved into Iraq and, worse, attacked the Kurdish areas (big US and Israeli interests there) The CoTI nearly splintered at that point, with the US giving IS a slap across the face to encourage them to get back on track, while Turkey and SA love the idea of zero Kurds alive. But IS has got back on track and the money and arms and supplies are fully open again (they never stopped, just were restricted a little bit).

In their mad dreams after winning in Syria IS&AN will happily hand over control to Turkey (or Saudi Arabia), then clear the Shiites from Southern Lebanon and then hand everything over to Israel, then (for the US) head off to attack Russia through the Caucus. At the same time they will also obey SA and Turkey and go for the Kurds, even though Israel and the US don't want that......

Right....

It is like watching 2 year old bratty children playing with scorpions in a sand box. What part of 'IS & AN are total monsters and will turn on you' don't they get?

bth

Two items not mentioned in this thread.

1. Last year the entire Turkish consulate in Mosul was held for ransom along with their families. Also about 500 Turkish truckers were abducted, then ransomed less their vehicles. Whatever Erdogan may be doing behind the scenes, I'm pretty sure this ISIL action didn't endear themselves to the Turkish man on the street (at least not the ones I know).

2. The Turkish economy has been in currency freefall for about 18 months and has almost impossible refinancing needs this coming year. These financial difficulties are indeed impacting the purchasing power of normal Turks. One can certainly speculate that further political issues will arise as the refinancing begin.

different clue

bth,

I have always wondered about that "abduction" of the entire Turkish consulate in Mosul. I have always wondered if it was pre-arranged between ISIS and the Erdogists to make it look like an abduction so that the Erdogists could be mis-percieved as paying a "ransom" rather than giving ISIS aid which the Erdogists always wanted to give ISIS all along right from the start. And ISIS played along with the Erdogists by giving the Erdogists the "kidnapping" they needed in order to disguise pre-arranged aid to ISIS as being a "ransom" rather than pre-arranged aid.

bth

Based on more than public information I believe both the consulate incident and the robbery and ransom of the 500 truckers was real. The questionable part is the nonpublic terms later negotiated. Did it involve parameters of cooperation to box in the kurds, did it involve cash transfers, a freight train of ammunition, terms by which IS throttled terrorism in Turkey and bootleg oil transfers that were politician friendly? On these matters things are mirkier.

Babak Makkinejad

All:

US Treasury Department has named Kuwait and Qatar “permissive jurisdictions for terrorist financing,” according to remarks made in October by David Cohen, the former undersecretary for terrorism and financial intelligence.

Kuwait criminalized funding terror groups only in 2013; prior to that Kuwaitis raised donations for Islamic State and other jihadists in Syria in drives on Twitter.

Why does not EU and US sanction the Central bank of Kuwait or Qatar?

Is it because they are supporting the "good" terrorists; the Friends of the West?

Is this Realpolitik - at the level of Metternich, Bismarck, Richelieu, Talleyrand, Stalin?

Or is this some sort of stupidity Writ Large?


bth

This Christian Science Monitor interviews Turkish human smugglers for ISIS. http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2015/0623/Jihadists-face-detour-at-Turkey-border-but-highway-still-in-business-video

Poul

Turkey to the rescue... for IS.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/30/us-mideast-crisis-syria-turkey-idUSKCN0P90RG20150630

A buffer zone would crush the Kurds and free up IS manpower for conquest in the south

different clue

Poul,

Can Russia move fast and hard enough to prevent the Erdogists from creating their "buffer zone"?

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