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09 May 2015

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Babak Makkinejad

Electromagnetic Theory

different clue

Babak Makkinejad,

There is a saying: " you can't bullshit the ocean. It isn't listening." Perhaps that is a secular restatement and shrinkdown of the saying God is not mocked.

Reality is the stuff that stays real no matter how hard we wish it away or wave it away or pray it away or explain it away. Time will tell what is really real here. I remain satisfied with warmism for the reasons offered. If enough other people dismiss it so as to successfully add up to a "blocking majority" successfully preventing any carbon skydumping reduction or plant-driven carbon-suckdown increase, then I expect to live out the rest of my life in a Big Heat Rising world. If I am wrong, the last laugh is on me. But that is what I will prepare for and expect.

Ingolf

Patrick,

Sure, understood, although perhaps macroeconomic considerations can't easily be separated from broader policy issues any longer. As Zanzibar says, in one way or another financial leverage is now driving almost everything.

Fred

TTG,

That study of poli-sci faculties would be a thesis paper worth reading!

Fred

Patrick,

"... the core thesis is that the "dominant political culture" of a country is the reflection of family systems and structures that have prevailed there for centuries. " That is an interesting observation you quote from Todd. I wonder what he makes of the changes in the US? Thank you for the commentary. It looks like I have another book to read, after, of course, I learn more French than the just enough to get around Paris tourist dialect I now almost master. (Except of course for proper pronunciation and other such unintentional errors.)

Babak Makkinejad

I am not dismissing Global Warming, I am stating that it is natural and nothing can be done about it.

Babak Makkinejad

It is worse than what you describe; the approach is imbued with religious sentiment:

There is a great god of economics out there that will make the good times roll in again if people will just go through the usual period of penance to atone for their (economic) sins of binging on debt etc.

Once the population has sufficiently chastised itself and flagellated itself and bled - then the great god of economics will accept their penance and make the manna fall from the economic heaven.

For myself, I would think that a trip to the Shrine of Imam Reza would be more efficacies.

Babak Makkinejad

Right.

When you supply evidence to the contrary it is ignored because it would go against their pet ideas; one being that the Bad Bad Industrial Man has ruined the Planet and must now pay penance while the Gentle Savages and Assorted pre-industrial Barbaric societies were living in Harmony with the great goddess called Nature in state of Savage Grace.

JurisV

I'm glad that you mentioned Dr Richard A. Muller as a reference for your conclusion that "global warming" is a "natural" process. I had to scratch my head for quite a while until I remembered that he had been a very prominent critic of climate warming and eventually headed up a team (partly funded by the famous Koch brothers)at Berkeley. His group's final report was issued in 2011 and the team's surprise conclusion was that the climate scientists were right after all. In fact, they were too conservative.

Are you aware of his NY Times op-ed dated July 12, 2012?

The title was -- The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic

The salient paragraph is:

> CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost entirely the cause.>

LeaNder

"But, he kept bringing up observations that I agree with. ..."

Necessarily, that's what every grand conspiracy tales needs. It always needs connections to reality to focus people's attention. They are actually the glue that make the narrative work

Thanks for alerting us to this, Vietnam Vet.

Should I be pleased or puzzled by the fact that the family structure that ultimately shapes me (the authoritarian or stem type) according to Todd puts me in the same box as the Jews? So there was something deeper in ideological choices connecting the non-Jewish and Jewish Germans and maybe still is? Notice that would work too.

My own nitwit question: To what extend does he have to thank his ancestor's experience in writing about the decline of the Soviet Union with 25 in 1976, quite early indeed?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Nizan

Babak Makkinejad

I read that comment as well.

I think the issue that he and others were trying to address was the reliability of temperature data.

That was. were they reporting incorrect temperatures - say due to thermal pollution coming from urbanization.

I think that issue was settled that the temperature readings were reliable.

The second quotation does not jive with what he has published in his book - which I believe to have the essential truth of the global warming.

I do not have sufficient contrary evidence to change my mind. I would like, for example, to have an estimate of the expected global warming - e.g. measured in mean surface temperature - if there were no human activity vs. with humans - all the while taking into account the astronomical causes.

Notice that the precision in the periodicity of global warming episodes over the last 2 million years leaves one with no alternative but astronomical causes for those repeated periods of global warming.

The critical question that you are implicitly raising - if I understand you correctly - is the relative magnitudes of each cause - Human Activity vs. Alteration of Earth's Orbit.

I do not believe that there is any resolution of this question yet.

JurisV

I was trying not to interject my personal opinions in my comment which was meant to be Dr Muller's conclusion in his words.

I would say that his conclusion that "Humans are almost entirely the cause." is quite explicit in his ending to the first paragraph of the NY Times Op-Ed.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-change-skeptic.html

If there's any question about he meant by that statement you need to read Muller's entire op-ed in which he covers all of the major effects which could affect the global temperature measurements. He makes no mention of the "Alteration of Earth's Orbit" that you mentioned. Since his book that you referenced was published 10 years before he analyzed the global warming data, I have to conclude that he didn't think it was of importance in his conclusion of: "Humans are almost entirely the cause."

I think his last paragraph of the Op-Ed is extremely clear about what his views toward the causes of "Global Warming." -- with which I wholeheartedly agree.

"Science is that narrow realm of knowledge that, in principle, is universally accepted. I embarked on this analysis to answer questions that, to my mind, had not been answered. I hope that the Berkeley Earth analysis will help settle the scientific debate regarding global warming and its human causes. Then comes the difficult part: agreeing across the political and diplomatic spectrum about what can and should be done."

I trust Dr Muller, but I'm quite pessimistic that will we agree to much of anything across the political and diplomatic spectrum about what can and should be done. However that is a discussion that we should be having.

The actual analysis by Muller and his team is laid out in five scientific papers online at:

BerkeleyEarth.org

Tyler

JurisV,

Let's make a bet. For every city that vanishes off the earth due to "climate change/global warming/cooling/whatever they're calling it in ten years" in the next decade, I will remove one finger.

For every doomsday scenario that does not come to pass, you will provide me with one nubile virgin girl.

At the end of the decade, I will have ten fingers and ten virgins (ten chosen as a fair number to make your life easier and the number manageable, as so far even ISIS has been blamed on climate change among other shenanigans.

Tyler

Babak,

James Fenimore Cooper would likely appreciate the "noble savage" outlook.

LeaNder

Interesting, David, should I subscribe to FT to read the article, last link?

I wondered about Brezinkski in the last decades, how would his power chess games look like had the theater of engagement been Eastern Europe instead of the Middle East? But I guess we all choose our current heroes with a limited grasp of events according to the respective spirits of time? ;)

I find his introductory statement slightly cryptic. But this may be a central point for the US/UK/European audience.

Brzezinski: "Second Polish Army Corps: "Some of them managed to end up in the West, and particularly in serving in the Second Polish Army Corps, which fought in Italy and in Monte Cassino, which the Poles, in the end took."

While the British Eight Army, under which it served wasn't involved at all, leaned back and watched them finish the job?

Interesting he mentions his early memories of the Gulag but not the later German atrocities and camps. Isn't it? Were some Germans present at the event?:
"So, we in America can benefit by this collaboration with the Polish center and it is something that I personally welcome, not only because of sentiment, but because of practicality. It is a useful relationship for us Americans, and at the same time, the global range of the interests of CSIS can help the Poles to widen the scope of their own geopolitical and strategic interests. "


Concerning the Russian view by Vladimir O. Pechatnov, I was vaguely aware of the Pan-Asian threat in late 19th century Russia , but I wasn't that aware of the equivalent Pan-Slavist Nickolay Danilevsky. Where does "Pan-Germanism" or Pan-Semitism or alternatively Pan-Arabism enter the larger scene? That would be an interesting perspective on larger power chess games from the late 19th onward. ;)

LeaNder

Interesting, rkka, the "street thug" seems to take its biographical wisdom from Wikipedia via: russia.rin.ru, which leads back to Oversee.net via rin.net from somewhere in LA.

Any other sources?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vladimir_Putin#cite_note-33

Babak Makkinejad

Thank you for your comments.

I confess that I do not know why Dr. Mueller chose not to mention the results of his own studies and others in the book but, in my opinion, the results discussed in the book still stand scientifically.

How do you account for the fact that in the past 2500 years, it has been warmer than it is today -- not once, but six times; the present warming is actually a rebound from the Little Ice Age that gripped the earth starting in 1200 and lasting to 1900. Temperatures today have still not reached the warm temperatures during the days when the Greeks and Romans flourished. (See Fig. 1.2 of Chapter 1 in that book)

But, I try not to be dogmatic and I will try to read the papers to which you supplied reference. As far as I can tell, they are only relating to reconstruction of temperature over the last 150 years.

J

TTG,
The new Russian tank appears to have its share of bugs. The day before the parade, one of the new toys died in the square area and had to be towed via ropes by another.

Generalfeldmarschall von Hindenburg

Brzezinski's the one who had the super idea to arm moslem fanatics to the teeth and train them in irregular warfare in order to lure the USSR into an embarassing and costly military quagmire. We see how that all panned out. The anglo-americans have been trying to break Russia up since 1917. Brzezinski longs for the return of the Polish-Lithuanian Empire I guess? Pilsudski said that Poland would 'exist as a great power or not at all' - funny that Poland is neither of those things these days and seems to be doing as well as they ever have, if not better.

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