The media are being snowed in Iraq.

"And that leaves the ISF and the PMUs. Both are already overextended. Baghdad's units are currently fighting at Bayji, Hamrin, Ramadi, and dozens of other places. They will be tied up protecting Baghdad and the Shia pilgrimage routes during religious periods including Ramadan (approximately June 16-July 16), Ashura (October 22), and Arbaeen (December 2). ISF simply lacks enough operational combat brigades to handle so many operations at once, especially as ISIS opens up new fronts to deliberately drain away reinforcements and as attrition grinds down Iraqi forces yet more."  WINEP

----------------

Timing is everything in war, timing, psychology and logistics.

The author of this essay correctly states that it is the ISF and Shia PMUs that are over-extended and not IS.   It is the ISF and Shia PMUs that have the need to defend numerous places and activities over the next months while IS has the luxury that is provided by a lack of threat of attack on its major centers.  Because of this IS can choose the time and place of attack. We are told by Patrick Bahzad that Baghdadi (Caliph Ibrahim) massed forces at Ramadi by issuing a more or less public appeal for his Amirs and brethren to go there.  Remarkable. No "five paragraph field order?"  Somehow I think that there were planning documents somewhere in this process.

In any event, the ISF and Shia PMUs are playing the IO game well with the few cards they have. Uncle Joe Biden professes to love them still and the foreign press is being courted in the hope that they can be persuaded (along with their masters in the West) that the Iraqi government is still master of the game.

I have the luxury with which to watch endless 24/7 and other news.  Luxury?  Well, perhaps that is not a luxury.  What I have seen is a succession of escorted trips by Nick Paton-Walsh, Arwa Damon, etc.  to Habbaniya and Beiji.  There they are told how brave the ISF and PMUs truly are.  They are shown fighters shooting bravely from embrasures and roofs at what is said to be IS in the distance.  After a suitable interval, the ISers reply with some fire, usually said to be mortar rounds and the thirty or so Shia fighters shuffle out of the place, get into their trucks and motor off to the south, Baghdad and the comforts of home.

Once there, the foreign devil reporters (well, maybe not you, Arwa.), are questioned on air about all this and repeat the lessons they have been taught on the class trip.  One increasingly detects (or imagines) doubt on their part as to what they have been shown, but indifference in the audiences has thus far shielded the IS effort from disdain.

Well, pilgrims, soldiers involved in serious fighting against serious enemies do not un-ass the position and run away because the opposition shoots at them. This is not how things are done.  This behavior reinforces my belief that the ISF/PMU capture of Tikrit may have been a standard maneuver by IS to fix enemy forces and attention in one place so that one's own forces can be moved to another point (i.e., Ramadi).

 And then is the matter of the method of use of armored (not armed) bulldozers at Ramadi.  If I remember correctly the bulldozers were used to push obstacles to the shahiid trucks aside so that the suiciders could be on their way to paradise, rather than the bulldozers having been blown up themselves.  After all, there are only so many armored bulldozers available while shuhada abound.

The media seem intent on not understanding what happens in Iraq.

pl  

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/anbar-first-mosul-never-iraqs-strategy-for-defeating-isis

Comments

[confusedponderer]

"And then is the matter of the method of use of armored (not armed) bulldozers at Ramadi. If I remember correctly the bulldozers were used to push obstacles to the shahiid trucks aside so that the suiciders could be on their way to paradise, rather than the bulldozers having been blown up themselves."

Yes, IS has a plan for an end game. They conserve forces for that end game. They're not done yet. Suicide, or rather sacrifice, is a means to an end to them.

[Richard Sale]

A wonderful piece, full of strategic insights and fine writing.

I don't think the media understand much of anything these days. They are intellectual sand pipers, dipping their little beaks and running, dipping their little beaks and running.

Back in 1980 when Ted Turner established the 34-hour news cycle, I balked. I thought it would end up with reporters drinking their own bath water, numbing the public mind, which is numb enough, with endless repetition of half understood facts.

an so it goes.

thanks to Pat for a superb piece.

Richard Sale

[Patrick Bahzad]

PL, I suspect you suspect right !

As has been said number of times on here, ISIS have limited manpower but they have the initiative and are highly mobile ... And they got a strategy. Can't say that much for government forces I'm afraid. Still haven't seen or heard much about the largely publicized counter offensive to retake anbar ... Is it because the enemy is so treacherous as to shoot back ? Makes you wonder really ...

[João Carlos]

I read that IS made some successful suicide bombers attacks against shia mosques at SA and against two 5-star hotels at Baghdad.

From the IS "modus operandi", I fear these are the start of operations at both places. They probably have sleeping cells at both SA and Baghdad, waiting for orders for attack. First they create fear and later they make a massive attack from all sides, including from the inside side.

I think it is time for buy an electric car.

Watching other news, US appear want to try start a war with China... Are we following orders made by the stupid? We will need help from China at ME sooner or later.

[William R. Cumming]

IMO it was 1982 for the 24/7/365 news on TV! Could be wrong.

[William R. Cumming]

P.L. and ALL: what are prospects for US troops on the ground in Iraq with zero [0] being no possibility and 10 being definitely?

I give it a three [3]!

[Tyler]

ALCON,

OT, but thought it'd be worthwhile to mention that Mikhail Saakashvili, one of three world leaders to attack Russia and lose (as one wag put it), was named governor of Odessa in Ukraine.

Putting a Georgian in charge of Ukrainians. History tells us that works out well, doesn't it?

[Farmer Don]

Sorry if I'm asking an obvious question.

Remember about a year ago Assad was winning the war, and he let a bunch of hungry surrounded rebels leave cities that they had seiged until the rebels gave up.

Are these SAME people back and now controling much of Syria?

[Medicine Man]

That sounds so outlandish I had to look it up. Turns out, yep, you're right. He was granted Ukrainian citizenship yesterday and appointed governor of the Odessa Oblast today. Gotta wonder what the leadership in Ukraine is thinking. They took a look at Saakashvili's track record and decided they wanted him as their guy in a crisis. I guess whatever pisses Putin off is a good idea to them.

[mbrenner]

Do we have a reasonable basis for estimating ISIL manpower? It seems to vary by a factor of 2 - indicating that the numbers are largely guesswork. As PB implies, they too seem to find it necessary to meet the demands of a multi-front war by shifting people from one to another. This is no way qualifies the conclusion that he and Colonel reach. Perhaps, it does become important were we able to imagine circumstances in which their opponents muster the forces, organization and strategy to challenge them militarily - however unlikely that is. In the abstract, though, it appears that such an army would not have be enormous in size to make a major impact.

That raises a follow-on hypothetical question: how large in fact are the numbers of foreign volunteers? Adding up the estimates given by nationality, one reaches 70,000 or so. Evidently, that is not the number available for combat. The arithmetic suggests that there are still a few teen-age homebodies in Bradford, St. Denis and Minneapolis. As for draftees, there too there looks to be a a big gap between potential recruits and actually manpower

[Tyler]

MM,

I don't know if it pisses Putin off as much as makes him chuckle. "Never stop your enemy when he's making a mistake" and all that.

[ISL]

Dear Colonel,

There seems an inherent assumption in such analysis as Michael Knight of only successes and no defeats, which clearly has been at odd with recent history, and thus seems more propaganda (I mean information ops).

However, pondering on Iraqi strategy, it seems that it largely relies on external actors - the US, the Kurds, the Iranians, the militias, each of which has its own "strategic" modus. In that sense, ISIS which clearly has a unified strategy spanning their territory will always have an advantage over the Iraqi dissonant strategy (with the underlying US cognitive dissonance between "syria ISIS - good and Iraqi ISIS - bad."

[ISL]

WRC:

Depends on how you define troops on the ground - in one sense there already are troops on the ground.

In terms of troops being in the front lines and trading fire with IS - 10 and soon if not already

In terms of mission creep and steadily increasing troops - 7 - I see no way Obama can avoid upping the ante.

In terms of a full mobilization to stabilize Iraq, I go with your 3.

[Patrick Bahzad]

There are already 300 marines north of ramadi !
Likelihood of permanent ground troops deployment as combatants is 0.
Likelihood of military advisers or FORPRO missions is 2.
IMO.

[Patrick Bahzad]

MB,

I would compare IS to a kind of pirate fleet that can appear where they want and don't ridk destruction as long as not cornered and confronted with overwhelming firepower.
ISIS are the Pirates of the Caribbean in Anbar, so to speak !

[Patrick Bahzad]

ISL,

frontline missions for US units in Iraq ? Afraid you living in fourth dimension !!!!'

[turcopolier]

PB

I would also rate the chance of US combat units as zero unless they are used for a NEO and in that case the risk would be high. The Baghdad area is along way from the sea. In such a case BIA would be vital unless one would want to leave via Iran. The 300 are NW of Ramadi at Asad air base. IMO this is an exposed position. IMO the absolute number of IS forces available for in depth maneuver is meaningless. most of their people are occupied in securing their gains elsewhere, training, etc. So long as they have an enemy who fears them and who can be stampeded their absolute numbers are irrelevant. They seek to sow panic and to trigger revolt among Sunnis and are good at it. "Four columns are marching on Madrid, and a fifth column is within the city." pl

[turcopolier]

PB
Actually it is better for IS to have small maneuver forces. Fewer means fewer target for US air and fewer mouths to feed. pl

[Patrick Bahzad]

I share both your assessments. Al Asad airbase could become frontline anytime. Only upside for defenders is that it is outside of urban areas and any troop concentration or potential attack could be spotted well in advance. For ISIS, it's probably more interesting to have coalition aircraft grouped closer to al Asad base so they can't be used elsewhere in close air support against ISIS troops.
Your reference to Spanish civil war is spot on ... Who remembers the examples of the past though ? I'm more And more intrigued and looking into the north Ireland situation in 1970s: despite all the differences, there are striking similarities regarding the structure and substance of the provisional IRA and ISIS. Both organisations were also born out of the failure of predecessors and produced a new generation of leaders. In the case if the IRA, some of these leaders lasted until the present day.

[ISL]

PB:

We all live inthe fourth dimension (time), one way, though.

Seriously, though:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-05-22/obama-under-pressure-to-send-u-s-target-spotters-to-iraqi-front

US spotters could be on the frontline soon (special forces, troops, whatever, they are American feet in American boots).

The question in my mind is: what does Obama do for when the battle for Baghdad begins if it looks like its going the wrong way? IMO will be hard for our political leadership not to re-engage actively to prevent a rout.

[The Twisted Genius]

Patrick,

Comparing IS to 18th century pirates is a very apt analogy. Developing and nurturing a fearsome reputation allowed pirates to take many of their prizes without a fight. Come to think of it, Is may be following much of John Muratore's NASA pirate code:
- Pirates have to know what they’re doing.
- If we fail, there is no mercy.
- You’re operating outside the normal support structure of society. It’s all about knowing all the details.
- You hit hard and fast. Pirates don’t spend months wandering around.
Pirates live on the edge or just in front of the wave that is about to catch them.
- Piracy is about taking risks. Occasionally we’re going to fail and you’ll get some holes blown in you.
- Pirates don’t have resources to waste. You’re always operating on a thin margin, not in fat city.
- We’re all banded together.

[FB Ali]

Michael Brenner,

Numbers in themselves mean little unless they are related to the aim. IMO IS's aim is to seize and secure the Sunni areas of Iraq and establish themselves in Syria (so that they can take over the country when Assad falls). For now they have no intention of taking over the Shia areas of Iraq.

Thus their strategy is to progressively weaken the forces that the Iraqi government can bring against them. So that their hold on the Sunni areas is not seriously threatened.

[Castellio]

Well, Tyler, I don't usually find myself in agreement with you, but on this I have no doubt you are right.

However, my suspicion is that this most remarkable top down choice of governor for Odessa Oblast has the blessing of Nuland, and that she is working at putting her people in place throughout the regions. I do not think Poroshenko is running the show.

To read a positive review of this choice, one I think very wide of the mark, but presented as a 'reasonable' justification, see: https://odessablog.wordpress.com/2015/05/30/saakashvili-odessa-governor/

From there you can link to other articles, including one that makes clear Saak's authority to 'clean house'.

[Fred]

Tyler,

I'm sure Saakashvili has excellent contacts with the Swiss bankers. An international lawsuit against FIFA is such a wonderful distraction from moving money around too. We should rejoice that the AG office spent two decades instigating soccer. Too bad they wouldn't investigate our banksters.

[Fred82]

Honestly,

I don't trust to be a US ally against radical Islamists. If anything, I think China is more likely to support radical Islamists against the US than ally with the US against radical Islamists.

I trust the Russians far more on the Islamist issue, particularly the Sunni Islamist issue.