Can the Iraqi Army defeat IS at Ramadi?

 
"While there is reluctance to deploy Shia militias, the reality is that they remain the only effective fighting force at Baghdad’s disposal. The government and the US must accept that, while these militias will not defeat Isis, they can, in the interim, contain it. Containing Isis will be crucial to allow Iraq’s armed forces to reorganise, as well as allow for moderate and effective Sunni Arab actors to emerge.

The real battle will be the one to develop strong institutions and rebuild the Iraqi state. Isis and other militant groups, like social movements in general, can exploit weak institutions and ethno-sectarian conflict. Unless these are remedied, similar organisations are likely to emerge in future generations."  The Guardian

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We will see if the Shia militias can defeat IS at Ramadi.  On that question hangs a great deal.

We will see if this or some other Iraqi government can unite the separate peoples of the British colonial creation called Iraq.

We will see if the surrounding countries will contribute to the defeat of IS.

We will see.  pl 

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/19/ramadin-isis-baghdad-kurdish-forces-shia-iraqi-forces

Comments

[Jack]

Sir

Can we conclude that IS is a representation of a winner in the Sunni leadership struggle in Syria & Iraq? In which case they may not be defeated as they will be supported by segments of the local population.

Since they are an outcome of our destabilization wouldn't the sensible policy for us to be to get out of the way and have the local actors figure out the accommodations? I know that's not going to happen since our government/political complex believe it's their business in meddling in everyone's affairs here at home and around the world. So I suppose we should expect more clusterf**ks.

[Tyler]

I guess we will know its getting serious when Jordan puts out calls for foreigners ala the Kurds have.

[turcopolier]

Jack

"... wouldn't the sensible policy for us to be to get out of the way and have the local actors figure out the accommodations?" Since, as you say we created this situation by de-stabilizing the region and allowing the vengeance of the former underdog Shias on the Sunnis to play out the only option we have is, also as ou say, to leave and let the poor buggers sort it out. pl

[oofda]

From another Guardian article- in relation to the Sunni situation:

The fundamental problem is that Isis is waging war across two countries in a single interconnected crisis that is sustained by Sunni anger and the perception that the US and the west are content to look on as a confident Iran backs Shia groups in Iraq and beyond for its own strategic and sectarian reasons.

In the Middle East the conventional wisdom remains that Islamic State will not be defeated until Assad is. But while there is no doubt that the Syrian president’s position has weakened in recent weeks, his regime’s demise is not in sight.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/21/seizure-of-palmyra-and-ramadi-by-isis-reveal-gaping-holes-in-us-jihadi-strategy

[Laguerre]

Ranj Alaaldin is a Kurdish propagandist masquerading as an analyst, otherwise known as PhD student, though he may have defended by now. Not really reliable. He can be expected to grossly exaggerate the Kurdish position, which he does. He forgets to mention that the Kurdish economy is in freefall - that's why they are unable to do anything. Public servants haven't been paid for three months ('again' says my informant). All building projects are stopped. Iranian Kurds who came to work are going home. Of course Alaaldin doesn't mention any of this, as the "Kurds are good" theme is universal in the media. You don't need to be told why all this is. Baghdad stopped paying the oil subsidy, in reprisal for Kurdish cheating on the agreement. You will remember KRG negotiating and selling outside the agreement - the Kurds bragged about it. Unfortunately it turned out that the KRG economy is completely dependent on the Baghdad subsidies (which come from southern Iraqi oil production). Even Barazani knows it, from his hanging back on the issue of independence. But you'll never hear a word of this from Ranj Alaaldin.

[turcopolier]

oofda

I notice that the media are more and more referring to the Syrian Government and Armed forces as that rather than "regime..." that is sad considering the amount of damage we have done them. pl

[Petrous]

Col. Lang
As always the questions you pose are the crucial ones to answer.Yet I find the last one, referring to help from surrounding countries to topple IS, a bit troubling in the sense that, one gets the feeling that the "Richest" neighbors ,plus Turkey are either still rooting for IS or semi covertly aiding it to weken both Iraq and Syria. Some have postulated that if IS is successful in toppling these regimes then Turkey, aided by infighting islamic factions, would step in to wrest control from IS. However, even if true, by then this task might even be beyond the grasp of our NATO friends in Ankara.

the fanning and encouragement of takrfiri thinking ever since the early 1980s has brought endless misery to millions. Most of the misery being bankrolled by our friends in Riyadh, who have very unneighborly feelings for Those arrayed against the IS.

[turcopolier]

petrous

It was a rhetorical question. I know that none will help except maybe the Iranians to some extent. pl

[Poul]

IS is cleaning out pockets of resistance between Ramadi and Fallujah.

Government defence line at Husaybah collapses.

http://dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2015/May-22/298915-isis-overruns-iraqi-government-lines-east-of-ramadi.ashx

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Col. Lang, SST;

There is significant dissension within the Turkish state on how to proceed. There is almost no possibility of the TSK moving against Daash in Iraq. Actually, tayyip ( per orders from the Saudis, I suspect) has been trying to get the army to intervene in Syria against the Syrian Army. He has been politely told to get lost (so far). Supposedly "moderate" Syrian rebels (unicorns?) are being trained in Turkey. The rat line to Daash through Turkey is still working, albeit at a much reduced rate. Their supporters in the West are still making their way in through Turkey quite easily. Daash seems to be getting adequate ordnance from areas they overrun. IMO the Kurds are no solution. They do not have an army, and cannot enter into a major confrontation unless the USA goes in in a big way and supplies the entire command-and-control structure, plus air cover. Even then they cannot be compared to Nasrallah's Hezbullah.

Most secular Turks, misguided or not, still consider Daash a joint Saudi-Israeli-USA operation against Iran and Russia, part of the great game. Conspiracy theories abound.

The upcoming Turkish elections might be important in how this plays out.

Ishmael Zechariah

[VietnamVet]

Colonel,

If somehow the USA gets the Shiite militia to attack Ramadi, it will be Operation Lam Son 719 all over again. If the USA withdraws air support once again or just provides lackluster support; the Iraqi militia could be wiped out and the Green Zone seized. History does rhyme. ISIS is motivated and is still advancing. This will put Iran under tremendous pressure to help out their fellow Shiites. The Sunni Shiite Holy War will be regional encompassing all of the Middle East. The people pushing this are flat out crazy. Even if a nuclear war is avoided, once Iran gets involved, the closure of the Straits of Hormuz and the halt to oil shipments will crash the west’s economy.

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Col., to expand on your reply above to Jack, it seems to me that the one helpful thing we could do would be to stop the anti-Assad campaign. If the Israelis don't like it, tough.

[turcopolier]

Poul

I wonder how the Shia militia are getting to the Habbaniya area with Fallujah in IS hands. pl

[FB Ali]

IMO the Guardian article is the usual half-baked claptrap about "containing" the IS while "rebuilding" the Iraqi army and the Iraqi state. It's just a little better than the nonsense spouted by Gen Austin about never supporting Shia militias.

That is why it came as a breath of fresh air to read a US (mainstream?) viewpoint that saw the real situation and called for a realistic response. This is a piece by Marina Ottaway at the Woodrow Wilson Centre: http://tinyurl.com/mqw7lek

She says: "If the United States wants to substantially degrade ISIS and loosen its territorial grip on much of Iraq, it has to accept that the Iraqi-backed Shi’a militias will play a central role in that fight" (I think she meant Iranian-backed!).

Her conclusion: "The United States returned to Iraq, reluctantly, because of the threat posed by ISIS and that is what it must concentrate on, not on a new futile effort to change Iraq. From 2003 to 2011, Washington attempted to rebuild Iraq into the country it wanted it to be, and it failed. It lost the battle for influence in Iraq to Tehran long ago—already in 2003 Iran was embedded in the Iraqi militias and political parties it had helped set up. This is a reality the United States has to accept. So the choice now is simple, but unpleasant: either the United States works with the Shi’a militias and Iran, however indirectly, in degrading ISIS; or, once again, it withdraws from Iraq.

Neither choice is good, but the former is less bad".

[Amir]

According to the Iraqi side, the USG did not provide any support whatsoever to the Ramadi defense forces, except dropping a few ineffective bomblets here or there. Their excuse was the presence of a sand storm, while all photographs (even the triumphant ones by DAESH) showed a perfectly sunny day. USG however, put pressure on Iraqi government to not cooperate with Iranian side nor the militia based on the false "inclusiveness argument". They are playing a double game and everyone in the ME is convinced of this. Whether this is true (which I think it is) or based on the so called "conspiracy-theory-mindedness of the locals", the administration has a difficult task of convincing them otherwise.

[turcopolier]

Amir

Thanks for reminding us that "the locals" are never responsible for their own f--k ups. It must be a conspiracy. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

By "Conventional Wisdom in the Middle East" I suppose you mean opinions produced by English-speaking Gulfie Arabs (just about the only foreign language they know)?

Well, they have some innate cunning but wisdom is not their strong quality - in my opinion.

The fact of the matter is that the Syria-Iraq border had divided a sub-culture of Arabs who shared the same accent. They now have created their own state from the carcass of Syrian Arab Republic and Republic of Iraq.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I heard ISIS attacked during a sand-storm or some sort of inclement weather that removed the possibility of using air-power.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I agree with you regarding this Guardian article. None of its suggestions can be implemented.

In regard to Marina Ottaway article; that is what I had stated on this forum on a different thread; US is doing her best not to make the choice that Mrs. Ottaway has enumerated.

I think US working with Iran or vice versa to defeat and destroy this scourge of Jihadist rebellion is a morally good act - it offers a superior alternative to future generations of the people of the Middle East.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I think that there was a delusion that the alternative to the Islamic Republic of Iran was Western Liberal Secular Democracy among many circles in US - and the Arabs and Iranians who fed them such nonsense.

I hope that it is clear by now that the alternative to the ideas of Ayatollah Khomeini is Jihadists' approach to governance against which no intellectual defense based on Reason exists - or could exist - in Sunni Islam.

I know that I am very likely a minority of one in this opinion.

[Babak Makkinejad]

That would not surprise me; why would ISIS pit herself against the Shia and Iran and waste manpower when she can grow through assimilation of Jordan where so many would welcome it?

Likewise for Saudi Arabia.

This is like late in 1939 and the Imperial General Staff is still looking over the war plans against USSR.

[turcopolier]

Babak

Ah, but Amir says that was an American cover story for inaction to pressure Abadi. So, I guess you were deceived by the cover story. pl

[ThePaper]

ISIS won't attack Jordan or the Saudi Kingdom of Horrors because then IS backers would become ISI enemies, cut from all their supplies and be completely obliterated (in the way Afghan Talibans where easily routed when required). ISIS is an anti-shiite anti-Iranian creating on it's original nature. The non-Takfiri Sunni resistance to US occupation was not bent on genocide on non-sunni groups.

What do you guess would do Turkey immediately if ISIS become a danger for the Sunnah? Close the Syrian frontier and prepare to send its army.

The US and western countries would also rally to help the Saud oil wells from being 'liberated'.

The Iraqi Sunni tribes now allied to ISIS would be 'bought' (or actually repurposed) and fight the 'foreign extremists'.

Creating phony 'wilayats' around the world based on pre-existing Jihadist groups is just a way to improve ISIS standing as an international Jihadist group and get funding sources and foreign fanatics to use as bomb bots ('stealing' them from Al Qaeda, the Talibans, or other local groups, a way to fight for the same 'resources').

Same reason applies to trying to expand again to the Kurdish north in Syria and Iraq. They have probably learned that the US will back their Kurdish clients in Iraq and, due to prevent bad publicity (propaganda forced US to prevent Kobane from falling when they didn't really care about YPG/YPJ and Turkey was evidently intended to destroy them), their new Kurdish 'friends' (YPJ/YPG has become way more accommodating to US interests lately) in Syria. They have learned that attacking kurds is not strategically sound and they won't follow up on it the foreseeable future. Attacks on Kirkuk (which US may or may not consider part of Iraqi Kurdistan) and any local action to defend Mosul area will still happen obviously.

Iraq won't be united as a real unitary country again because Kurds are happy as a US and Turkey protectorate with lose contact with Baghdad (but will be happy to keep receiving oil funds from the South) and Arab Sunnis have bought whole the combined Baathist and Saud Takfiri ideology that its their divine destiny to rule subhuman Shiites ... or be exterminated trying.

Shiite Arabs are relatively fine with Kurdish autonomy for the foreseeable future and will likely just discuss borders (what happens with Kirkuk, Mosul and Northern parts of Saladin) and revenues. So I only expect problem if something makes the Kurds to openly declare independence.

Perhaps with a few more defeats and complete destitution Sunni Arabs will change minds eventually and the minority willing to collaborate with a moderate Shiite majority prevail and subjugate the Takfiris (similar how Chechnya was 'fixed') but I'm not very hopeful. Moderate Shiites are for sure trying hard to reach Sunni Arabs (and no, giving away weapons to tribes that are as much likely of attacking you every other day it's not an intelligent way of trying harder).

[The Virginian]

Those espousing a "rebuilding of the Iraqi state" are living a dream - there is no going back, and the future trend is towards greater fragmentation between as well as within groups (ex. inter-Kurdish rivalry, inter-Shia rivalry, inter-Sunni rivalry). Whatever IS evolves into I suspect it will suffer from C2 constraints and internal differences over time, whether there will be any force willing or able to take advantage of such fissures is uncertain, and regardless it would not be to restructure a state along the lines of what was. Approaches by all players except seemingly Daesh revolve around a moveable feast of tactical schemes delinked from any sense of strategic focus - something that undermines the potential for an effective, pragmatic strategy to emerge, much less be implemented. The political elite are interested in dealmaking to serve their narrow interests, and lobby the US Congress and others to support their particular views. The reality is that the Iraq-Syria that was is gone, that bloodshed will continue, and the West's ability to control what emerges from the rubble will likely be limited outside of creating more rubble, at least for now.

[ThePaper]

Most roads in that area are controlled by the Iraqi forces. Fallujah has been basically under siege for more than a year. ISIS controls some populations because local support and because the Iraqi forces have not been really trying (because of lack of resources or no interest on playing on the sectarian the tune that Iranians Shiites are slaughtering Sunni populations) to go in force and dislodge them. They have been lately slowly moving and clearing some of the hold out areas closer to Baghdad (Al Karma) in a similar way they have been moving north to Tikrit and Baiji .