Turkey will not bail out Saudi policy in Syria

 
"Amid widespread speculation that the government will declare  war so it can cancel the upcoming legislative elections, Gursel Tekin, secretary-general of the main opposition  Republican People’s Party (CHP), said on May 7, “Turkey will enter Syria  with a military operation tonight or Friday.” Tekin claimed he had been  tipped off by a reputable source and added, “I am calling on the prime  minister. Please get up and say, ‘There is no such madness. That is a baseless  claim. Deny what I said.’”

The government remained silent for hours, allowing Tekin's  accusation to generate even more excitement and speculation. The  war agenda naturally found its place in election campaigns. Selahattin  Demirtas, co-chair of the pro-Kurdish People's Democracy Party (HDP),  told a gathering in Tunceli that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will do everything possible to  take Turkey to war with Syria.

Ultimately, it was not the president or the prime minister  who denied Tekin’s assertions, but Minister of Energy Taner Yildiz, while  being persistently questioned by reporters. “Let him disclose his  sources,” Yildiz said. “We suggest he should review his source.” It wasn’t  enough, however, to temper the fears that Erdogan might go to war if he  thinks he won't get the 400 parliamentary seats he so covets.  al-monitor

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/05/turkey-saudi-arabia-partnership-a-war-chant.html#ixzz3ZsSfgphi

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Ashton Carter told the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on  Defense on May 6 that a no-fly zone in Syria is “a difficult thing to  contemplate” and described the establishment and enforcement of “safe zones” as  “a major combat mission.”

Meanwhile, Syrian President Bashar  al-Assad acknowledged on May 6 “setbacks” against opposition  forces and terrorist groups. In recent weeks, an alliance of Islamist  groups, including the al-Qaeda-affiliated Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar  al-Sham and Jund al-Aqsa, defeated Syrian government troops in and around Idlib, as  Reuters reported  Al-monitor

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/05/syria-no-fly-zone-ashton-carter.html#ixzz3ZsTZaVGn

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 1 - Erdogan will not take Turkey into war with Syria because he knows that to do so is to risk revolt or a mutiny. 

2 - The US will not do SA's bidding in this matter.  The cost in blood and treasure would simply be too high.  Carter's statement makes that clear.

Without Turkish intervention the present rebel gains will soon be reversed.  SA has no cards to play except money and bribery.  Their ventures in Syria, Iraq and Yemen will fail with a possibility of instability to follow in SA.  pl   

Comments

[walter]

God I hope you are right, Col.

PL, could u please explain why Israel is apparently more comfortable with Sunni extremists than Shiite.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Col. Lang,

You are absolutely correct that erdogan and his band of klepts dare not start a war in Syria. No one here would risk their child for the House of Saud and its aims, all their "money and bribery" notwithstanding. Compulsory military service does have its advantages. Folks do care about their kids. On the other hand, I am also unable to decipher CHP's game. They are very ineffectual as the main "opposition" party.

Ishmael Zechariah

[kodlu]

Previously, when the unbearable Turgut Ozal wanted Turkey to enter the Gulf War during George H W Bush's presidency, the armed forces' chief of staff, General Torumtay resigned, reportedly to block the active involvement of Turkey in the war against Iraq. Now, Ozel is much more beholden to Erdogan's government, but even so the following is interesting.

From yesterday's Hurriyet Daily News:

May 11 2015

The Turkish army and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu have refuted claims that Chief of General Staff Gen. Necdet Özel left his office because of a disagreement with the government over military intervention in Syria, underlining he will be back to his job after recovering from a medical procedure.

“Chief of General Staff Gen. Necdet Özel underwent a successful medical operation and his health is stable. Land Forces Commander Gen. Hulusi Akar will serve as acting Chief of General Staff during the sick leave of Chief of General Staff Necdet Özel,” the Turkish Armed Forces said in a written statement May 11. Özel is set to retire due to age limitations on Aug. 30 if the government does not opt to extend his mandate for another year.

The army’s statement came after news broke that Özel had received a 15-day sick leave for medical treatment of a health problem. Özel’s temporary leave caused wide spread speculations suggesting that the top soldier had left his position because of a deep disagreement with the government over a military operation into Syria. The rumors on the issue came right after a senior opposition party official argued the government was planning to enter Syria “within days.”

“Speculative news that has been published in some media institutions does not reflect the truth,” the army said in the statement.

Davutoğlu said Özel’s leave is only about his health and that claims he will ask to retire do not reflect reality, in an interview with daily Yeni Şafak. “I talked to him. His health and moral is stable. He won’t retire,” Davutoğlu said.

Describing his dialogue with Özel as very healthy, Davutoğlu said, “Our Chief of General Staff is our commander who is very sensitive to obeying democratic rules and improving the professional capability of the Turkish Armed Forces within the democratic system.”

“He has never been in a position that would cause the place of the Turkish Armed Forces in the democratic system to be brought into question. All pieces have fallen into place in these four years [of Özel’s mandate],” he added.

[confusedponderer]

Well, that is good news then, is it not? Am I overly optimistic or does it suggest that the US is eventually coming along to see SA as the problem that it is?

The US not bombing Syria, Turkey not intervening overtly and generally not having the Da'esh/JaN jihadi headchoppers lord it in their inimicable way over the minorities in Syria (and beyond, since that would likely reignite civil war in Lebanon) - all that is definitely good news.

Turkey stopping supporting the opposition covertly would still probvably ask too much?

My impression is that, if Da'esh/JaN took Syria, that would not just be bad news for anyone not religious and Sunni in Syria - it would also plunge Lebanon into civil war again. It'd be an unholy mess.

And if that wasn't bad enough given Lebanon's history, it would again involve a distinct chance that Israel then would seize the opportunity and attack southern Lebanon again. To catch Hezbollah in a 2-front war between the IDF and Da'esh/JaN ... the Israelis have been longing for an opportunity to stick it to Hezbollah for decades. That they woulld 'use the opportunity' and kill Hezbollah officers in Syria given the chance was instructive.

As for the Saudis: There is precedent in Muslim history that serf soldiers or mercenaries have a tendency to grab power when the opportunity arose. Saudi surrogates may just do the same to them. Wisdom would have been to, despite all that wealth, to (a) only pick fights worth fighting and (b) only fight fights that you can fight yourself. Their involvement in Syria, Iraq and Yemen are wars of choice that have always been beyond their non-monetary means.

The Izzies are just as dumb in their own way. They support Da'esh/JaN against Assad, when they only thing that keeps Da'esh/JaN from treating Jews just as they treat Christians and other minorities in the areas they control is that they hate Assad as an apostate a tad more? Null problemo! There is the IDF and nukes between that!

A novel concept somebody should broach to the Israelis: Weakening Assad may make it possible to delay having to return the Golan to Syria forever. Stirring the pot and making it worse may make one stronger relatively to the other parties, but not safer. Be safer by contributing to order. Safety is distance from disorder.

PS: Side note about the CHP - since Turkish expats in Germany are now allowed to vote in Turkish elections, that means (and I am not particularly happy about that) that Turkish election campaigns are now being waged in Germany also. The CHP has a campaign office in Cologne.

[João Carlos]

I am reading Peter Turchin book "War and Peace and War: The Rise and Fall of Empires" (http://www.amazon.com/War-Peace-Rise-Fall-Empires/dp/0452288193) and thinking that Turchin argument that arab dynasties at North Africa stay for around 100 years and after that time they fall can apply to SA. I am seeing the same pattern that Turchin say happens to North Africa dynasties.

[Harper]

A key factor in this madness is the shift in power in Saudi Arabia. The Saudis under King Salman are more aggressive, with no increased competence. The Yemen war, as Col. Lang forecasted from the outset, is a losing proposition for the Saudis. The more they indiscriminately bomb the Houthis and anything else they choose, the more the Sunni tribes and others will turn anti-Saudi and even back the Houthis. The Qataris have brokered a "deal" between the Saudis and the Turks, under which the Saudis are pouring money into Turkey to fund an Army of Conquest, to defeat Assad's forces. The US is opposed to this, because, given past developments, there is no reason to assume that a Saudi-backed Army of Conquest will be any different than the Bandar-funded ISIS. After Kerry's visit to Riyad last week, making it clear that the US cannot sign a NATO type treaty with the GCC and does not support the GCC-Turkey schemes to defacto support Nusra and ISIS if they can overthrow Assad, the Camp David meeting was downgraded by King Salman. This is a mess waiting to happen, and, regardless of the fecklessness at the White House, the US military is clear that this is one more fiasco they do not want to be sucked into.

[bth]

Turkey needs stable southern land trade routes it is currently missing.

Also what prevents Turkey from continuing to increase antitank weapons to rebels especially if Syria is unable to get repair parts and ammunition due to internal financial crisis and slow Iranian financial backing? Turkish military may have veto on direct intervention but Erdogan has been quite industrious with his intelligence services.

[William R. Cumming]

P.L. Thanks for the info in this post. Wondering if Turkey governance is fundamentally flawed?

[omen]

it is IRAN who are funding sunni terror groups (ISIS) in order to destabilize iraq & syria. iran harboring hegemonic ambitions is fighting to keep both within their grasp. iran is the arsonist posturing as the firefighter hero, creating pretext to justify their interference/occupation.

Iran’s meddling in Iraq and Syria helped spawn the Islamic State

Iran has long proven that it has no problem aligning with Sunni extremist groups to further its ends. For years, Iran has helped Sunni extremists infiltrate countries such as Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon and then rush in as the only safeguard against the very forces it has helped unleash.

The Islamic State is no exception to this rule. In fact, the leaders of al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), the forerunner group to Islamic State, had for years received support and shelter from the Iranian regime.

Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict, the Iranian and Assad regimes have intentionally allowed the Islamic State to grow and flourish in order to weaken the more moderate groups that are striving for the establishment of a democratic government in Syria. They have thus tried to present the Islamic State as the most prominent group fighting the Syrian regime and frame the Syrian question as a choice between Assad and Islamic fundamentalism.

Furthermore, the Assad regime has been a source of income for the Islamic State as it has been secretly purchasing oil from the extremist group, which now controls oil wells in Syria and Iraq.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2014/10/01/when-it-comes-to-isis-iran-isnt-the-solution-its-part-of-the-problem/

[Ishmael Zechariah]

ConfusedPonderer,

Might I suggest a paraphrase and a small addition: "Wisdom would have been to," BECAUSE OF "all that wealth, to (a) only pick fights worth fighting and (b) only fight fights that you can fight yourself", and (c) to train all YOUR people-male, female or hermaphrodite, citizen or serf- to be disciplined, rigorous, logical, realistic warriors.

The old saying about "wars and undefended wealth" comes to mind.

Ishmael Zechariah

[turcopolier]

Omen

Do you have any actual proof of any of this? If you do not then you should label it as your opinion. pl

[turcopolier]

bth

What you do sub rosa is largely unimportant so long as it stays there. What you do with your army and air force is more significant. Erdogan now faces the decision as to what to do that he san get away with in Turkey if he tries to use Turkish conventional forces. pl

[omen]

yes, i have proof. i anticipated a counter arguing no, it's the saudis funding terror. this provides context:

from mike doran:

"To be sure, money from the Gulf has been making its way to Islamist organizations in Syria and Iraq. But the primary sources of this funding are Islamic charities supported by wealthy individuals, not governments. Moreover, that money is a drop in the bucket compared to the million dollars a day that, according to credible reports, ISIS receives from oil sales to Turkey and Iran."

http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2014/07/14-get-tough-on-iran-america-no-retreat-middle-east

also this from an expert whose focus is on terror financing.

"@JSchanzer: There is a significant cell of al qaeda financiers based in Iran"

https://twitter.com/followFDD/status/590898660134748160

iran funding sunni terror groups have even been verified by US treasury department.

President Obama’s assumption is grossly mistaken. The president’s own State and Treasury Departments have repeatedly exposed Iran’s ongoing sponsorship of al Qaeda. Moreover, terrorists directly tied to al Qaeda’s Iran-based network have plotted attacks in the West on three occasions since Obama took office.

http://www.weeklystandard.com/articles/doomed-diplomacy_859655.html

[mbrenner]

I have little sense of Erdogan's calculations in regard to Syria and his domestic political position. Logically, though, one would expect the United States' attitude to be a major factor in the equation. However, in fact, it likely has been substantially reduced in weight because of the Obama administration's record of allowing itself to be manipulated/coopted/neutralized by any strong willed player in the region: e.g. Bibi Netanyahu, King Salman. Against this backdrop, is there reason for Erdogan to worry much about what the Americans will do?

[Imagine]

Saudi is considering possibility of getting nukes "in order to offset Iranian nuke capability", possibly from Israel:
http://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-arabia-considers-nuclear-weapons-to-offset-iran-1430999409
http://www.cnn.com/2015/03/26/politics/saudi-open-to-nuclear-bomb/
http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/.premium-1.655797

Ibrahim al-Marie, a retired Saudi colonel and a security analyst in Riyadh: “If Iran declares a nuclear weapon, we can’t afford to wait 30 years more for our own—we should be able to declare ours within a week.”

A nuke-capable far-right militaristic Middle-East theocracy that wants domination over its neighbors: What could possibly go wrong?

The tragicomic thing about this farce, of course, is that Iran has consistently disavowed all possibilities of making a nuclear bomb, on religious, moral, tactical, and strategic grounds, hundreds of times over decades of pronouncements:
http://www.wideasleepinamerica.com/2012/10/the-goldberg-predilections-ignoring.html

so either the Saudis are drinking Netanyahu's Kool-Aid, or it is a clever cover to allow Israel and Saudi to proliferate. Whatcha gonna do about this, Mr. Kerry?

It is way past time for the Iran-proposed Middle East Nuclear-Weapons Free Zone to come into effect.

[omen]

before anybody seeks to undermine evidence i posted by claiming all the previous been cooked up by neocons out to get iran - should consider this. israel has been holding closed door meetings with iran.

from newsweek:

"Historic talks in Geneva to broker a deal with Iran to abandon its nuclear weapons program grounded to a halt last weekend without agreement. But a dialogue begun at the same time during a secret meeting of Iranian, Israeli, and Chinese generals in a chateau in France promises to find a way to solve the remaining issues."

existential foes don't hold closed door meetings with one another.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Omen,

Thx for this piece of extremely imaginative and creative writing ... No doubt you've been inspired by Amir Basiri whose inflamatory statements can only be compared to the stuff coming out of Iraqi opposition figures like Ahmed Chalabi in pre-OIF times. Maybe that is the whole point anyway.
I have an idea for a follow-up on the piece you're quoting, it should be titled "when it comes to ISIS, Saudi Arabia isn't the solution, it's part of the problem". Please extend my suggestion to the other Iranian exiles who live in five star hotels in Istanbul, or in lovely suburban houses in Virginia.

[Babak Makkinejad]

They already had "... stable southern land trade routes it is currently missing" but then they decided that Syria was an enemy of Turkey and ISIS her friend.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Istanbul is an uncomfortable city - I think Tehran is superior.

[Patrick Bahzad]

Indeed, I rest my case ...

[shepherd]

Omen,

The Newsweek story you quote was filed in November 2013, and there was no follow up reporting on it. Please provide more evidence if you'd like to make a contention of ongoing talks.

Also. Your keyboard has a shift key. It usually resides next to the "z" and below the caps lock button. There is another which sits below the return key. They enable you to make capital letters, which traditionally go at the beginning of English sentences. They also denote proper nouns.

[different clue]

Imagine,

Nukes from Israel? Wouldn't KSA rather get nukes from Pakistan? Wouldn't that be easier? Because among other reason Israel still ambiguously denies having nukes whereas Pakistan loudly and proudly proclaims its nukes?

[alba etie]

Omen
Welcome to SST . First things first -- I was wondering have you ever been or are you now an agent of a foreign ( not the USG ) government ? Next - are you aware that most if not all of the 9/11 hijackers were Saudi Sunni with a Wahabi /Salafist bent ? Moreover , right now Hizbullah is engaged in a vicious fight to the death with Da'esh, al Nusra , & al Qaeda as to who rules the country of Syria ? How could Tehran be in a strategic Alliance with Assad in Damascus and be a sponsors of al Qaeda at the same time ? But again welcome to SST .

[confusedponderer]

"so either the Saudis are drinking Netanyahu's Kool-Aid, or it is a clever cover to allow Israel and Saudi to proliferate"

What about the Saudis just being hysterical, with a heavily biased and distorted perception of Iranian intent and capabilities?

Saudis intelligence gathering capabilities vis a vis Iran are probably limited. It's one thing to covertly fund jihadi headchoppers (I think the Saudis are adept at that) and another to do strategic intel in Iran.

What I can imagine is that Israel feeds them BS about Iranians being ten feet tall so the bearded women of the Gulf can crap in their thawb some more. The Saudis would have to take on faith whatever the Israelis tell them. Given Saudi paranoia about Iran, they would want to believe. It'd be an easy sell, like selling beer at spring break.

I don't think Israel is happy with the prosect of either Arab or Iranians nukes since it would be a challenge to their monopoly and thus pose another existential threat in their eyes.

They'd be fully right to fear that whatever they give to the the Saudi may end up in some jihadis arsenal should the house of Saud fall. The Israelis being realists tactically, won't help the Saudis there.

I'm with dc assuming Pakistan as a presumable suplier. If not them, then North Korea or China.

[William R. Cumming]

P.L. and ALL:

Is my understanding correct that the Turks are really not welcome anywhere else in MENA [perhaps a residue of the Ottoman Empire?}?