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15 April 2015

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Patrick Bahzad

Powers ? What powers ? We talking about Egypt Iran or Turkey then ? They gonna invade KSA ? Is that your scenario ? Ok then ... Iran is Shia which is probably worse to Saudi wahhabis than West ! So problem would be the same ...
As for Egypt and Turkey, if you think that would go down well domestically, I'm afraid you're mistaken ! Since when has Islam been a merry bunch where everybody is in agreement ? Not even in Sunni Islam ! Murder, conspiracies, civil wars, all over the place.
Let's keep it real, this is just throwing in stuff that makes no sense and trying to make something out of it.
Again challenge from within the only serious threat worth mentioning at the moment ... The outsde challenges in the Arab Sunni world have been taken care of, curtesy of the U.S.

Larry M.

Pirouz,

I cannot get at my travel notes, but I am quite positive the 747 I saw was a very dark blue and carried the logo "Islamic Republic of Iran Navy" in English (and some Persian words presumably saying the same). I forgot to mention that the logo included an anchor.

I have flown Iran Air both before and after 1979 and wouldn't have batted an eyelid if that 747 had been Iran Air. A military transport jumbo was interesting and a navy one was, to me at least, amazing, as I think the navy was the junior service within the Iranian armed forces.

charly

You forgot Pakistan. But Iraq, Yemen, Sudan, Somalia, Eritrea, Syria & Jordan could all do it if they had 5 years and 20 Billion to spend on their army

FB Ali

Pakistan's involvement in the Yemen situation is not yet settled by any means.

Apparently, the Saudis said nothing publicly in response to the parliamentary resolution but instead did some heavy arm-twisting privately. As a result, the recommended "neutrality" was quickly abandoned by PM Sharif, who issued a statement firmly supporting the Saudi position and immediately sent a delegation under his brother (the Punjab Chief Minister) to SA.

They returned after a day and discussions have been ongoing in Islamabad since. The official Pakistani position has now shifted to support of the UNSC resolution on Yemen, with some weasel words slipped in about Pakistan "contributing" to its implementation.

Keep an eye open for the Saudis to now try and set up a multinational force to implement the resolution. It seems Pakistan is ready to join such a force (along with Egypt and other client states). It will be interesting to see what the US reaction would be to such an attempt (clearly beyond the scope of the resolution, and hence with no legal basis).

Considering the reluctance of the Pakistan military to get involved in Yemen, my guess is that their contribution would be some SOF and, possibly, some other troops. Largely a token force.

If the Saudis do invade Yemen with ground troops, either with such a multinational force or just their own forces, it will be a repeat of the Egyptian invasion in the 1960s.

Irrespective of this game-playing, a terrible human tragedy is unfolding in Yemen, with mass starvation around the corner. It is a shame for the world community to just watch this from a distance, or actively participate in making it worse. Especially so for those who mouth platitudes about human rights and human welfare, as the West frequently does.

Matthew

CP; They will be destroyed. Saudi money distorts the foreign policy and actions of all its neighbors and its Western clients.

Babak Makkinejad

Again, I do not understand the distinction between confessional state and religious state.

"Secular state" is a fantasy among Muslim polities.

I think our differences, likely is in this: you think it is meaningful to use categories developed by the European Political Theory to Muslim polities in a meaningful manner.

I think that exercise is mostly meaningless.

Matthew

FB Ali: You are talking about our UN Ambassador, of course. After Saudi has destroyed all of Yemen's meager infrastructure, Powers will blame Iran.

Babak Makkinejad

The empires of the fore in Western Eurasia, even perhaps that of the Great King, were instruments of wealth extraction for minority.

US did not go into empire business for the sake of money; in my opinion - unlike Spain, England, Portugal, Holland, and even France.

Babak Makkinejad

And there is the Iranian stone exported to Israel via Turkey, as well as certain types of appliances.

Babak Makkinejad

And in early in the Pacific War, US Marines attributed the Japanese artillery's effectiveness to (non-existent) German officers.

And the English in Singapore did not believe that inferior race of Japanese could venture out and destroy their world in Singapore either.


Charles I

There's actually an Iranian Pistachio mafia with Israeli connections, as well as to Afghani dopers and smugglers. They in turn are fierce competitors of the Turkish pistachio growers.

They are the result of decades of sanctions, war, opportunity and the incredible appeal of the little devils. Some U.S. tarrifs as high as 317% on Iranian pistachios since 2002. Let no market be uncorrupted somehow.

Consider the plight of Sirjan Zomorrod Pistachi, whose promotional material makes pains at the outset to affirm that

"Sirjan Zomorrod Pistachio is a creditable company. . .The products of Sirjan Zomorrod Company are preparing) and packing(sic) according to international standards, so that this company can export its products to the countries around the world (such as European countries)."

http://www.szpistachio.com/

cf. http://outofedenwalk.nationalgeographic.com/2014/10/27/pistachio-mafia/

http://iranian.com/Opinion/2001/May/Trade/index.html

http://iranian.com/MehrdadValibeigi/2002/March/Business/index.html

Charles I

Egypt losing soldiers in the Sinai is hardly a good indication of their ground force projection abilities/willingess to do more than bomb.

Charles I

and then ask for U.N humanitarian aid, I think delivered Gaza donor pledges are up to 10 cents on the dollar. . .

confusedponderer

I'm with you on the character, defects and effects of the Saudis.

I mean what will replace them. ISIS, Al Qaeda seizing some of that wealth?

William R. Cumming

Israel cannot be defended IMO!

William R. Cumming

IMO the seeds of revolution may have been planted. Historian A.J. P. Taylor hypothesized that revolutions occur when there are rising expectations. If he is correct then I am wrong because few Americans have rising expectations again IMO!

Macgupta123

The 1946 provincial elections (under the British; with a very limited electorate; and with separate electorates for each religion) were seen as being over the issue of partition and Pakistan. The Muslim League won almost all the Muslim seats. The winning slogan was "Pakistan ka matlab kya hai - La illaha illa Allah" (what is the meaning of Pakistan? etc.) The other won was - Islam is in danger. Muhammad Ali Jinnah repeated ad nauseam that if India remained united, Islam would be wiped out.

Further sample reading:
http://thepartitionofindia.blogspot.com/2015/02/the-islamic-roots-of-pakistan.html

Matthew

Charles: And almost no concete...and it's still okay to shoot Palestinian fisherman too.

I'm not sure if the Western world recently has produced anyone more evil than a "humanitarian interventionalist".

Patrick Bahzad

Don't really see any merit to your claim, but if you got a theory about this, you should write it down, as it has the potential to be a best-seller. I mean it.

different clue

If KSA breaks up, the worst possible outcome would be for ISIS or AQ or other such to take over the Eastern Province, the Oil and all the Money.

The least worst possible outcome would be for the Eastern Province to become one way or another aligned with Shia South Iraq and/or Iran, because these two countries don't have (and hopefully won't have) quite the global drive for Jihadi violence all over the world.

The best possible outcome would be a version of what The Twisted Genius has called for in the past . . . somehow leaving the KSA intact and in place, but destroying all its money.

different clue

William R. Cumming,

How far can a Revolution of Falling Expectations go before its unwilling participants erupt in some manner? If the Falling Expectations are managed downward "just slowly enough", will the public put up with a slow-fall all the way to Ukrainian or Moldovan levels?

Is the militarization of police, the total spying awareness, etc. by government a sign that people in government fear the limits of public tolerance may be being reached, and preparations are being made to contain unruly publics?

LeaNder

"built on purely confessional basis, ie either a Muslim or a Jewish state. "

The question is who is the paragon and who the epigon in the larger historical context.

Is it possible to ignore the impact of British colonialism as one of the driving force behind the partition too?

Concerning "the army that has a state": There are a lots of rumors around the Pakistani military.

I agree with FB Ali, that the Sunni/Shia issue was an important one. Good news anyway. Connections?

Babak Makkinejad

Yes, but why did Jinah, a liberal whisky-drinking, and an old member of Congress (before Gandhi and his goat and home-spun came to the scene) chose the "Pakistan" project?

One cannot whitewash Gandhi and Hindus and smear Jinah and Muslims for the Partition and its aftermath and remain truthful to History - in my opinion.

Charles I

boiling frogs

Charles I

This just in, kinda Orwellian, must check my tinfoil hat integrity:

"Saudi Arabia, which is leading an air campaign against rebels in Yemen, has pledged to provide exactly the amount of emergency aid to the country as called for in a UN appeal on Friday."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-32363845

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