Some Russian Analysis Of Our Ukrainian Plans By Walrus

The Col. Cassad (in English) website has published a translation of an interview with the former SVR General Reshetnikov who heads a private Russian think tank. The main thread of it is about the Ukraine and what he perceives to be American intentions, to whit:

"they don't need a federal Ukraine, such a territory will be hard to control. It will be impossible to deploy their military bases, a new ABM echelon there. And there are such plans. From Lugansk and Kharkov tactical cruise missiles can reach behind the Urals, where our main nuclear deterrence forces are located. And they (i.e. ABM's) can hit silo-based and road-mobile ballistic missiles on the ascent trajectory with a 100% probability. Currently this area is not reachable by them neither from Poland nor from Turkey nor from the South-East Asia. This is the main goal. So the US will fight for Donbass to the last Ukrainian."

If this assessment of U.S. intentions is correct, and such bases in Eastern Ukraine will neutralise land based Russian nuclear assets , doesn't this imply that the Neoconservatives haven't given up on the "Project For A New American Century"? Should we assume Chinas land based nuclear deterrent is similarly neutralised?

Doesn't this mean that Russia is forced to choose between not defending the Novorussians, losing sovereignty and accepting a role in President Obamas words as a "Regional Power" or supporting them to the point of a confrontation with NATO, risking nuclear war?

Furthermore exactly who thinks time is, or is not, on their side? A colleague argues that Western sanctions will continue to weaken the Russian economy and that therefore time is not on Russias side. My own guess is that this is incorrect, and that the confrontation has galvanised both Russia and Chinas economies. If Washington also thinks the way I do then the next offensive in Ukraine, when it comes, may be an order of magnitude larger so as to secure a quick victory.

Where does this end? A mono polar American universe where corporations graze unstoppably over the planet to the detriment of almost all the population? A freedomised world full of love and peace?

http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com

 

 

 

Comments

[GlennF]

This article: http://www.defenseone.com/management/2015/04/pentagon-moves-more-communications-gear-cheyenne-mountain/109549/

Offers backup for the Russian one above.

[BabelFish]

I vote we get #1. In actuality, we are probably there and have been for some time.

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Per Walrus:
"A colleague argues that Western sanctions will continue to weaken the Russian economy and that therefore time is not on Russias side. My own guess is that this is incorrect, and that the confrontation has galvanised both Russia and Chinas economies."

As Raul Ilargi Meijer sees it in his post at The Automatic Earth, the Russians agree with you. Quoting a Reuters' piece about the Russian central bank chief, Elvira Sakhipzadovna Nabiullina:

“The acceleration of inflation… has in our view a temporary character. We expect quite a rapid fall in inflation if there are no new unforeseen circumstances..” Nabiullina said the central bank would continue cutting interest rates insofar as inflation risks receded. The bank has already cut rates twice this year. “On the whole we judge the situation in the banking sector as stable,” she said. “The banking sector maintains a substantial capital buffer and the banking sector is able to counter serious shocks even if crisis phenomena deepen.”

She said central bank stress tests showed that even if the oil price were to fall to $40 per barrel the sector would maintain capital levels above the regulatory minimum. Nabiullina also said the factors which had been weighing on the rouble had now passed, saying that repayments of foreign debts could be financed without this having a significant effect on the rouble’s value. “Thus the influence of those factors which were influencing the exchange rate and inflation last year are gradually receding to nothing..”

http://www.theautomaticearth.com/2015/04/russias-central-bank-governor-is-way-smarter-than-ours/#post-20394

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Walrus,

If we are permitted to predict the success of future attacks by the bander-log from their past performance, their probability of overrunning the Novorussian resistance is rather small. If we are permitted to predict the attainability of neocon-planned cakewalks from their previous success record, the reduction of Russia and China to "regional power" status is also rather small. Then, the probability of both goals being fulfilled is a product of two small probabilities, and might be termed negligible.

In answer to your question of where this all ends, I am afraid there is a third answer. see, please http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/nuclearwar1.html for details.

'Tis indeed a pity...

Ishmael Zechariah

[VietnamVet]

Walrus,

Cold War 2.0 has re-ignited along with strange headlines; i.e. “Secret Norwegian Submarine Base Rented by the Russians”.
http://www.newsweek.com/2015/03/27/secret-submarine-base-norway-accidentally-handed-russians-314989.html

The Civil War in Ukraine is still simmering. Both powers are supplying weapons and each believes that God and Right is on their side. This could easily erupt into a hot shooting war between NATO and Russia.

This is freaking weird for a 71 year old who still remembers grade school duck and cover drills. This has to come down to inbred ideology and primitive emotions. “Get them before they get you.” How does one convince the power driven few to back down from the brink of a nuclear war that at best will kill millions or at worst make the world uninhabitable for mankind?

[kao_hsien_chih]

It does not matter whether the Russian assessment is "correct" or not. It matters that serious people in Russia (seem to) think so and will take actions on that basis. We dodged a nuclear bullet in 1983, and that did not involve a shooting conflict on Russia's doorsteps. If the Obamaniacs miscalculate, the only evidence that will count will be mushroom clouds over all major cities of the Northern Hemisphere. On the plus side, from the perspective of human-rights-by-genocide-mongers, it will solve the global warming problem completely.

[JerseyJeffersonian]

Walrus,

By a strange coincidence, I just finished reading this interview over at Vineyard of the Saker. Our misleaders have no understanding of how dangerously they are pushing the envelope. If the UkroNazis take another stab at Donetsk and Lugansk, in my estimation, they will be making wagers that they are ill-equipped to place, and may get way more than they bargained for.

As retired General Reshetnikov has clearly stated, Russia's strategic thinkers view the US aggression in the Ukraine as an unambiguous threat against their nation, because they see that siting of long-range tactical missiles this close to their border poses a danger to their strategic deterrent capabilities. This point being reached, all bets would be off as to how energetically they may react.

The future? I fear that it might be outspread plains of radioactive glass where you and I, and everyone and everything that meant anything to us once were. I hope that it does not come to this, but as I said, our misleaders live in their own bubble of unreality, and God only knows what it would take to pierce it.

[David]

Walrus,
Where will the Ukrainians get the additional troops needed for another and bigger
offensive ? One reads that they are having a hard time maintaining current levels.

[MS2]

I don't think that this source is making sense because 1) the first two sentences in the quote contradict the rest - they imply we should accept partition to have a governable state in which to base. 2) for missile intercept purposes, I don't see the huge value add on Luhansk/Kharkov vs. Sumy

[FkDahl]

Donetsk tonight...https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=5lygc0s7luc
guess on what's being used? Cluster MRLS?
Sounds far heavier than the "allowed" mortars/MG/RPG's ... I am waiting for the MSM to condemn this affront as well as Saudi Arabia's...

[FkDahl]

Odd this that I find myself agreeing with a German leftist ... http://www.sahra-wagenknecht.de/de/article/2090.holen-sie-sich-unser-geld-bei-den-banken-und-der-griechischen-oberschicht-zurueck.html

[Ursa MAior]

"A mono polar American universe where corporations graze unstoppably over the planet to the detriment of almost all the population?"

You mean TTIP and TTP?

Would really worth a thourough analysis how the "primus enter pares" aka the leader of the free world has turned into a monster far more sinister it has defeated not a long time ago?

See gender neutral toilets in the White House.

Sometimes I wish Hillary to win the next elections. Maybe, only MAYBE she would not take the whole Earth down with the collapsing Pax Americana.

[BabelFish]

Right there with you. No adults left in Washington, none whatsoever.

[Misanthrope]

It's not really surprising though is it? In general, people only play nicely when they think there will be adverse consequences for bad behaviour. From the perspective of the US elite they can do whatever they like with no consequences.

[Matthew]

Babelfish: Thought experiment: What do we do if Russia announces that any attempts to move strategic weapons into Ukraine would cross a Kremlin red-line and those weapons will be destroyed before they can be unloaded?

Why is Ukraine so important to the US Government?

[William R. Cumming]

I specifically note that most of the analysis in this post and thread is hyperbole.

When will there be discussion of the fact that government of the people, by the people, for the people DOES NOT EXIST AND WILL NOT EXIST BECAUSE OF US FP EITHER IN RUSSIA, THE UKRAINE OR CHINA? as always arguments au contraire welcome.

ALSO EXCEPT FOR NUCLEAR WEAPONS THE ABILITY TO DEFEND NATO COUNTRIES IS QUITE LAUGHABLE TO ME!

Am I wrong?

[Bryn P]

I always thought that the argument for nuclear weapons was that they represented the best assurance of a MAD stalemate, so it was not too encouraging to read recently that a botched wrong order nearly set off a nuclear confrontation during the Cuban crisis. It would be only too easy for something similar to do so now and we cannot assume that we will always be lucky.

It is not the Russians who are surrounding the US and Europe with their military bases, it is the US who is surrounding them and threatening their borders. Maybe you are a "special" nation, but given the failure of our present form of capitalism your specialness is not going to last too much longer. Frankly you are leading us into the abyss and the sooner we Europeans grow a pair and stand up against your neocons and our poodles over here the better. I am not holding my breath.