"How to Avert a Nuclear War" Cartwright and Dvorkin

"... we are still living with the nuclear-strike doctrine of the Cold War, which dictated three strategic options: first strike, launch on warning and post-attack retaliation. There is no reason to believe that Russia and the United States have discarded these options, as long as the architecture of “mutually assured destruction” remains intact.

For either side, the decision to launch on warning — in an attempt to fire one’s nuclear missiles before they are destroyed — would be made on the basis of information from early-warning satellites and ground radar. Given the 15- to 30-minute flight times of strategic missiles, a decision to launch after an alert of an apparent attack must be made in minutes.

This is therefore the riskiest scenario, since provocations or malfunctions can trigger a global catastrophe. Since computer-based information systems have been in place, the likelihood of such errors has been minimized. But the emergence of cyberwarfare threats has increased the potential for false alerts in early-warning systems. The possibility of an error cannot be ruled out."  NY Times

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We used to think the outcome of a US/Soviet all out exchange would be 40 million dead on our side and more for them. 

After all, we are an Exceptional Nation and should achieve exceptional results. 

The ensuing Madmax dystopic world would favor the hard of heart.  pl 

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/20/opinion/how-to-avert-a-nuclear-war.html

Comments

[Ex 11B]

I have done the research. Anybody who thinks any kind of nuclear war is winnable needs to be in a straight jacket. If we survive as a species, it will be a world of horror. The one thing I liked about Reagen is that he was genuine in quest to reduce the chance of nuclear war and proved it by his actions.
Where is all the Reagen hero worship when you need it? I challenge the one demographic in this country that seems to wield any real power. Those folks that will always come out in unity to make government "keep its hands off my medicare!" People who never ever give up on finding that "real" birth certificate.
You hear that whisper in the wind? That's the ghost of old "Dutch" screaming into Roger Ailes diseased colon where some people's head seem to be permanently parked, trying to get your attention. He would like you to help him be remembered for his only real true heroic deed. So spend about an eighth of the energy as you spend hating on some of your fellow citizens and go clean house. It was ya'lls boy W who let the neo's in the front door so it is your responsibility. But don't do it for that...do it for Dutch.
Or quit claiming him.

[Akira]

A fascinating look at how close we came to the Mad Max future way back in 1983:

http://espionagehistoryarchive.com/2015/04/17/kgb-spetsnaz-world-war-iii/

[Charles I]

or the hard of bowels, come the typhus

[ISL]

Dear Colonel,

Thanks for highlighting, I find this scarier than imagination - the media seems to have forgotten that naught has changed in MAD, and US claims of winning the cold war (IMO China has just about won), changed naught in that MAD (duck and cover) calculation. In low moments I figure maybe (aka George Carlin), the planet would be better without us, but then I think of Mozart and how close we are to being able to exit permanently the earth's gravitational well - such that permanently ending our future in a nuclear fuzz originating in blind ideology seems a second rate story ending..

[confusedponderer]

What about cholera?

That sure came pretty quick after the US liberated Iraq, and in the process of spreading Freedom™ conventionally reduced Iraq's infrastructure to rubble. Until then the desease was thought overcome in Iraq. Without proper sewage treatment, water purification and electricty it had one hell of a comeback.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/21/world/middleeast/21iraq.html?_r=0

Money quote: "While cholera can kill its victims in a matter or hours, it is easily controlled through basic water treatment and sanitation measures. But in a sign of how difficult that may be in Iraq, the director of the Basra health ministry, Dr. Ryadh Abdul Ameer, said Thursday that some waterworks in his city were now entirely without chlorine, which is used to purify, because imports of chlorine dried up this year after insurgents used the chemical in bomb attacks."

You know, those Sunni insurgents, part of which have migrated to Syria and brought with them their methods. Whenever I hear of somebody accusing Assad of using 'chlorine barrel bombs' I think of that.

The other thing notable in that article, is that Cholera just 'happens' - "Cholera is not uncommon in Iraq, which typically reports around 30 cases a year, public health experts say, with the last major outbreak coming in 1999." - just as if accidentally and inexplicably cholera broke out in Iraq, and just as if the destruction and following deprivations the US brought to bear upon that country had nothing whatsoever to do with it. If I am not very much mistaken, in 1999 the import of Chloring was banned under the US-led sanctions regime as a dual use item. Maybe someone should have told Mr. Kramer.

And considering that this is an article from 2007, the outbreak of the disease may just be indicative of the general effectiveness of US infrastructure reconstruction efforts.

[J]

Colonel, TTG,

Listening to CNN's broadcast with Senator Barrasso(R-Wy), it appears that Russia (Putin) controls 20% of of our U.S. Uranium, courtesy of our NRC, State Dept., and the Clinton s (both formers Sec O State and Former President).

How does one spell Hmmmm.......

[William R. Cumming]

A terrific and timely POST IMO!

MAD is MAD!