The Latest Saudi/Israeli/Syrian Rebel "Plan" for Syria

"...  the Atlantic Council offered one way forward: converting the underpowered training mission into a project to build a 50,000-member “Syrian national stabilization force” capable of imposing order across the country."  Washpost Editorial Board

"As a starting point it would require the creation of the northern Syrian safe zone that Mr. Obama has resisted for years. But it would offer a path to ending the Assad regime and its crimes."  Washpost Editorial Board 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/syrias-new-atrocities/2015/04/18/171939ec-e385-11e4-905f-cc896d379a32_story.html

************

"...  stated that the United States must put the train-and-equip initiative "on steroids." The recommended program creates a robust, three-division stabilization force of 50,000 Syrians that would be able to fight and defeat any enemy standing in the way of a legitimate and inclusive Syria. He explained that as the Syrian National Stabilization Force (SNSF) gains ground and popularity, the force will attract patriotic elements of the Syrian Arab Army and other rebel forces to fill its ranks."  Atlantic Council

"...  the SNSF must have the capability and means to fight their enemies in offensive missions as well as the ability to conduct defensive, humanitarian, and security missions. In order to create this force successfully, the United States and its allies must lead the initiative in several efforts, to include establishment of a no-fly zone in parts of Syria where the SNSF can operate militarily and the Syrian National Command authority can establish governance."  Atlantic Council

---------------

 Washington is infested by a sub-stratum/class of marginal academic performers and bureaucratic "hangers-on" who make a living by burrowing into the world of; political appointments, congressional staffs, media contracts, think-tankery and relentless self promotion.  These are often people with no talent for business who are incapable of making a living other than within the confines of the "policy" world.

On summer nights in Washington one can see foot long rats scurrying around the Willard Hotel, Lafayette Park and, of course The Treasury.  These rodents are so fat and sleek that they have difficulty in hiding themselves.  Their be-whiskered snouts can be seen protruding from beneath trash receptacles while the ends of their hairless tails are visible at the other side of the trash can.

 

In much the same way the policy rats sometimes show themselves in indiscreet and risky ventures that expose them to public scrutiny.  Such incidents are often forced on them by the more or lass hidden providers of the money grease that lubricates the rats' sinecures.

IMO this White Paper is one such "forced error" in the world of think tank strategery.   The notion that the US and the Europeans will organize, arm, supply and reinforce, if necessary, a three division force of Syrians against all comers in Syria is just ridiculous.  To implement such a program would require many years and the establishment of a no-fly zone over nearly all of Syria by the United States.  That would be a war folks, a real live shooting war to destroy the Syrian Air Force and Syrian missile air defenses.  There would be US air crews downed in Syria with predictable results.   Such an effort would NEVER obtain UN sanction over the vetoes of Russia and China and so the no-fly zone would clearly be an illegal attack on a sovereign member of the UN.

IMO, no  person likely to be elected president of the US will take the action envisioned in the Atlantic Council "Plan," That would include all the kooks now visible on both sides with the exception of TLOLFSC and he will not be elected (or nominated).  Why?  The American citizenry will not accept a war against the Syrian Government.  A war against IS or Nusra? Certainly, but not against the Syrian Government.  No likely future US president will accept the personal burden of such a policy.

So, what is this silly paper about?  Has the Atlantic Council's long slide into insignificance descended so low as to be the servant of Saudi/Hariri money (same thing in my opinion) in order to fund this crappy little center within its very bowels?  The Saudis have long desired the consolidation of Sunni/Wahhabi power in North Arabia.  This paper serves that policy goal.  The non-Islamist Syrian rebels are a ghost army that will never amount to anything.  The alternative to the present Syrian Government is an Islamist regime in Damascus.

The Israeli/Zionist policy appears to be the creation of chaos and pauperization in the ME among their opponents.  I suppose that explains WINEP support of this stupid paper.

How sad.  pl  

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/events/past-events/setting-the-stage-for-peace-in-syria-the-case-for-a-syrian-national-stabilization-force

Comments

[Babak Makkinejad]

In 1936, 6700 priests were murdered on the territory of the Republican Spain.

Some time later, 2000 civilians who had been arrested earlier on the suspicion of being Franco sympathizers were executed lest they be freed by the advancing Nationalist Forces.

Nevertheless, Abraham Lincoln Brigade, Gary Cooper, Hemingway & Neruda etc. continue to define the Republican Spain as that shinning moment of glory that was raped and trampled under the jackboots of the Fascists.

[James doleman]

Video is worth a watch

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2015/04/20/263807/video-of-islamic-state-capabilities.html

[James doleman]

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2015/04/20/263807/video-of-islamic-state-capabilities.html

[Todd Rumph]

Two weeks ago I attended a talk by Gen. John Abizaid, where he discussed "strategic situations" in the Middle East. He is a compelling speaker -- insightful, possessed of a wide vision yet attention to detail, and with a grasp of the Arab world's history. (Quite fluent in Arabic too.) He emphasized two key events in the region (and I hope I'm doing his discussion justice in paraphrasing):

1) We're seeing the dissolution of the British-imposed borders of the last century in the region.

My take: The resectioning of the Arab Ottoman lands, the Sykes-Picot Agreement (take a bow, France), and the League of Nations set national boundaries in the region without much regard for the cultural or religious geography.

The redrawing of the map cited by Gen. Abizaid, although messy, contentious, and a mere decade old (I'd mark Operation Iraqi Freedom as the starting line), has already taken on a sense of inevitability. Anyone proposing "creat[ion of] a robust, three-division stabilization force ...able to fight and defeat any enemy ... of a legitimate and inclusive Syria" is paddling into the wind and tide.

2) Three blocs are competing in redrawing this map through political and military power: the Shi'ite extremists of Iran and non-national clients (including the Houthis; the Sunni moderates of Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and the Gulf states; and the Sunni extremists of ISIS and other groups.
(Here's where an apology to Gen. Abizaid is due -- he painted a much more detailed, geographically wider, and more nuanced scene.)

My take: any nut who proposed the force described in this post should have to write answers to the following questions on the blackboard 100 times:
* What is this "Syria" you dwell on?
* Exactly which "Syrians" would comprise this force?
* And what could they all agree is worth fighting all comers for?
* And who are "all comers"?

In the "three-legged chair" alignment of forces described by Gen. Abizaid, the answers to these questions matter quite a bit! (Having two siblings, I view any three-way competition as intrinsically unstable and a breeding ground for alliances and betrayals.) We've already seen some of the strange bedfellows that current conflicts have created -- US bombing and reconnaissance missions indirectly supporting Iranian-sponsored attacks against ISIS forces, for example.

[Charles I]

Come now, we can manufacture a side to support, at least in terms of a pretext to attack another, with the gas nonsense fiasco headed off by Putin last year, or the re-branding of Al-Nusra after the utter failure of the FSA whatever that was, and previous training failures I cited a month ago, to take on ISIS. And I'm damned if I didn't hear talk the other night that the K guys, the what Koranchars or whatever the hell they were before knocked outta contention as the gravest threat since the painter's henchmen by ISIS last year, are baaaack.

As you and PL noted Soldiers often seem to be the Chamber of Sober Second Thought so apparently utterly lacking.

[Charles I]

People on the ground after we screw up. The Kurds wherever. Baghdadistan. Maybe the Sunni Iraqui generals will overthrow ISIS for their little bit. Bit o Golan to Israel. Damascus and chaos until Assad falls/flees. Turkey takes its bite. etc etc.

[Charles I]

Apropos my Sunni question above, I see this headline today about tribal a Sunni tribal cleavage:

Iraqi Sunni tribesmen break with Islamic State group over killings

"

MAKHMOUR, IRAQ—When Islamic State militants swept across northern Iraq last summer, the Sunni al-Lehib tribe welcomed them as revolutionaries fighting the Shiite-led government in Baghdad. But less than a year later, the tribe is bitterly split between those who joined the extremist group and those resisting its brutal rule.

The tribe hails from a village just south of Mosul, Iraq’s second largest city, which was captured by the IS last year. Like many Sunnis in northern Iraq, they initially welcomed the Islamic State group as liberators.

“We were happy when Daesh came,” tribal leader Nazhan Sakhar said, using an acronym for the extremist group. “We thought they were going to Baghdad to establish a government. But then they started killing our own people.

“It turned out they were the same as al-Qaida.”

Now Sakhar leads a group of around 300 fighters who have reluctantly allied with Iraqi troops and Kurdish forces to fight the IS group.

Aand(sic) fellow tribesmen who still support the extremists."

http://www.thestar.com/news/world/2015/04/22/iraqi-sunni-tribesmen-break-with-islamic-state-group-over-killings.html

[Cee]

anna marina,

I just saw a clip of our new Nazi friends burning someone at the stake. NOT REPORTED ON MSNBC!

http://alternativefreepress.com/ukrainian-neo-nazis-nail-rebel-fighter-cross-burn-alive-video/

[Cee]

Croesus,

I had to stay away from the truth for a while and you just made me want to do it again. Jesus!

I can't allow myself say where I wish all of of those you mentioned should be, or their well deserved fate.

[Cee]

Charles I,

God bless and help them fight those monsters.

Same here...

http://www.ibtimes.com/christians-threatened-isis-lebanon-turn-hezbollah-help-1889610

[Cee]

Todd said:

We've already seen some of the strange bedfellows that current conflicts have created

There is NOTHING strange about supporting Iran against those fanatics!! What is strange is continuing to support Israel and Saudi Arabia who train and fund them!!

I'm going to stop before I start to curse!!!