Conspiracy Theories: Too Much Creative Thinking Married to too Little Critical Thinking

Adam L Silverman,

In a few weeks US Special Forces will conduct an exercise in the US southwest called Jade Helm. This is neither out of the ordinary for the US military or really even news. What is out of the ordinary and really news is that a vocal number of Texas citizens, fueled by far too much time on the Internet and listening to talk radio, are convinced that Jade Helm 15 is really cover for the President to declare martial law* by colluding with Wal-Mart to use secret tunnels under the five stores they have recently closed (for either a labor dispute or a plumbing problem depending on who you want to believe) - several of which aren't anywhere near the exercise areas - to move Special Forces around to round up Texans, place them in FEMA concentration camps, seize their private property, and import ISIS fighters across the Southern Border so that Muslims can conquer America. Someone even dispatched a Public Affairs Officer to go to town hall meetings to dispel the rumors. Click over to watch the video and see for yourself how far down the rabbit hole this whole thing has gone. If you like to play conspiracy theory bingo someone just won and won big! Also, if the allegations about Jade Helm turn out to be true, then our friend Tyler is going to be very, very busy down on the border this Summer - so be prepared to send care packages!

In response to this imminent threat to the Homeland, and Texas, and our precious bodily fluids (insert your preferred Dr. Strangelove reference here _______), Texas Governor Abbott has called out the Texas State Guard** to monitor the exercise, coordinate with the US military, and report back to him. This is either a smart move to diffuse unwarranted fears by engaging with those who have them and making them feel that their concerns are noted or a bad move as it will confirm the unfounded paranoia and reinforce these beliefs in those who have them because the governor is taking it seriously.

* The Gawker article includes the complete informational/briefing slide deck pertaining to Jade Helm. Its marked UNCLASSIFIED//FOUO, but I wanted to warn anyone with a clearance in case you click over there you'll find (a soft level of) spillage.

** The Texas State Guard is the descendant of the state militia set up by Steven Austin in the 19th Century. It does report to the Adjutant General. Twenty-two states have state level militias, either state guards or state defense forces, that are distinct from their National Guards. From the Texas State Guard website: 

"The Texas Military Forces is composed of the three branches of the military in the state of Texas. These branches are the Texas Army National Guard, the Texas Air National Guard, and the Texas State Guard. All three branches are administered by the state Adjutant General, an appointee of the Governor of Texas, and fall under the command of the Governor.

The mission of the Texas State Guard (TXSG) is to provide mission-ready military forces to assist state and local authorities in times of state emergencies; to conduct homeland security and community service activities under the umbrella of Defense Support to Civil Authorities; and to augment the Texas Army National Guard and Texas Air National Guard as required."

 Headquartered at Camp Mabry in Austin, Texas, the TXSG functions as an organized state militia under the authority of Title 32 of the U.S. Code and Chapter 437 of the Texas Government Code."

 

 

Comments

[alba etie]

Dr Silverman ,
This is a little bit delicate subject for me because I grew up and have lived in Texas my whole life - so I hate to be derisive about any thing "Texian " - but there now is some bat sh--t crazy talk coming from my home state. Not only is it Alex Jones - but it is elected officials too , ie Senator Ted Cruz . What is really unsettling is the bat sh--t crazy talk is widespread , persistent and is leading to some serious calls for our beloved Texas to leave the Union , and become our own Republic again .

[nick b]

AE,

Rand Paul has gotten in on the act too.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/rand-paul-jade-helm

[rjj]

Why is that a bad thing? Draw the new border roughly along I-20. Plug the wells south of this new border tapping into the Ogallala. Build a wall.

[nick b]

Dr. Silverman,

I enjoy creative thinking as well as a good conspiracy theory. This one surrounding Jade Helm is a dandy! I ran across a discussion of it about a month ago. The other day I saw another take on it that was also very creative. As the map of Jade helm is laid out, Texas is supposed to be hostile territory, New Mexico - uncertain leaning hostile, Colorado - permissive, Arizona - uncertain leaning friendly, Utah - hostile, Nevada - permissive, California - permissive with an insurgent pocket in the San Diego/El Centro/Calexico area which is hostile. This particular bit of creative thinking had it that this map is a proxy for the mid east, and that this exercise is practice for an invasion of Iran. In the scenario Texas is Iran, New Mexico - Iraq, Colorado - Turkey, Arizona - Jordan, Utah - Syria, Nevada - Lebanon, and California - Israel, with the San Diego pocket representing Palestine. Obviously, like the others, you can poke a lot of holes in this 'theory'. Still, I was impressed by the creativeness of this particular view. There are some very active minds out there. I wish they were writing for Hollywood. Movies these days might be a lot more interesting.

[turcopolier]

Adam

But, in the film from which the aluminum hat thing is taken, the aliens DID arrive. pl

[The Twisted Genius]

This exercise seems like a modern take on the old FLINTLOCK exercises that 10th Group did primarily in Germany. We'd parachute into the German countryside, link up with locals and operate against U.S. mech infantry units and the German police. FLINTLOCK is now Africa oriented and consists of MTTs with African militaries. JADE HELM is also similar to ROBIN SAGE, the final exercise for aspiring Special Forces soldiers and officers held in the Uwharie Forest area of North Carolina. Many of the locals in the area take their roles as inhabitants of the Peoples Republic of Vineland very seriously. I'm sure there are a lot of Texans who would love to do the same.

Adam, do you know what the ODG refers to one one of those slides? Are they the new UW specific teams being formed separate from the existing ODAs?

[The Twisted Genius]

That's Pineland, not Vineland. That's what I get for being a two finger typist.

[nick b]

I just read that the Gov. of Utah (hostile territory), Gary Herbert, is brushing off the conspiracy theories about Jade Helm. We all know that this can only mean one thing: The Governor of Utah, and perhaps the LDS are in on it! ;)

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/utah-jade-helm-15-gary-herbert

[Adam L Silverman]

Alba Etie and Nick B,

Mr. Jones is considered by some to be the originator of this insanity. Senator Paul is a frequent guest of Mr. Jones and there is frequently stated mutual admiration, respect, and support.

[Adam L Silverman]

nick b,

This will be an Unconventional Warfare (UW) scenario. I helped with a tabletop one about a year ago, that had nothing to do with the Middle East. The big Conventional Warfare scenario, which is notionalized despite clear guidance that we're not supposed to practice/train to liberate Farawayistan anymore, is not a Middle East scenario.

[Adam L Silverman]

Sir,

True, but you like pictures with the post and that was the only one I could find where no one would come back later and ask why we put the pagan picture of them wearing a foil hat up.

[Adam L Silverman]

TTG,

I've never seen that, and I checked the DOD dictionary too. As this is a Joint SOF exercise, and based on the map I think it's a generic designator for one of two things: it's eith G for group as in G staff, with the ODH being OD headquarters or they're using the G and H to replace the traditional A, B C, etc.

[mbrenner]

I live a couple of miles from the lunatic asylum that is the Texas state government and down I-35 from the crackpots in Bastrop. The truth is even worse than these stories indicate insofar as the sentiments expressed are widespread and growing here in Tejas and across the Bible Belt. The president seemingly doesn't know or care what is going on. He could easily pull the rug out from under Abbott (who is not crazy) by firmly declaring that his actions are an insult to the armed forces of the United States and damaging to the performance of their functions critical to the national security; that he will order all unit commanders of the exercise to ignore the presence of the National Guard; that he will conduct no further exercises by the armed forces in the state of Texas until he receives assurance from the Governor that Abbott personally will cancel his order and ensure a non-hostile environment for the United States Army; and that Obama immediately is appointing a select panel of military and civilians to draft a plan for relocation of all military facilities now sited in Texas as expeditiously as maintenance of the nation's military capacities permits.

I can assure you that Abbott would fold inside of 48 hours. This crop of drugstore cowboys (all hat and no cattle) are just the standard bullies who have grown arrogant in the absence of any opposition. The real head cases of course could secede by hiring a "coyote' to lead them across the Rio Grande into Mexico

[r whitman]

Let us not forget the 10 million Mexicans that will invade and homestead the southwestern part of the USA.

[GulfCoastPirate]

alba etie wrote: ' but there now is some bat sh--t crazy talk coming from my home state.'

Not along the Gulf Coast part of the state. We're still sane down here - most of us anyway. :)

Too bad the invasion isn't true. I'd much rather have Obama than Abbott, Patrick and the rest of that Austin crowd. It could take out most of the local governments and all of the Baptist crowd in East Texas also while it was down here and the state would be much better off.

[GulfCoastPirate]

mbrenner wrote: 'I live a couple of miles from the lunatic asylum that is the Texas state government and down I-35 from the crackpots in Bastrop. The truth is even worse than these stories indicate insofar as the sentiments expressed are widespread and growing here in Tejas and across the Bible Belt.'

True indeed although to show how hypocritical that whole crowd is they couldn't get the feds/others in here fast enough a couple years ago when drought caused the whole area to catch on fire.

[Swami Bhut Jolokia]

Carrying the Ebola virus, of course.

[Swami Bhut Jolokia]

I was disappointed to see there was no mention of black helicopters on the linked sites. Though the 'death domes' were a nice touch. Initially I had read that as 'death drones', which would also have been acceptable.

What a great country we live in!

[turcopolier]

SBJ

IMO, certain areas should be forced out of the Union. Texas would be one, New York City and South Florida would be two others on my list. pl

[Croesus]

"This particular bit of creative thinking had it that this map is a proxy for the mid east, and that this exercise is practice for an invasion of Iran."

In Fall 1975 a team of subcontractors to US Navy, under contract to Shah Pahlavi, helicoptered over New Mexico desert and around LosAlamos, terrain that had been identified as very much like Iran's desert. They were electrical engineers designing radar installations the Shah felt were necessary for Iran's defense.

[Croesus]

you would keep CA?

[Swami Bhut Jolokia]

As long as you leave California in the Union! And Virginia, as I used to live there.

[Valissa]

It’s easy to make fun of conspiracy theorists. But there are sociological reasons conspiracy theories are more popular today.

The Psychological and Sociological Needs Met by Conspiracy Theories, by April Roush - Virginia College http://www.academia.edu/7696074/The_Psychological_and_Sociological_Needs_Met_by_Conspiracy_Theories
Abstract: Conspiracy theories are based on distrust of others and particularly public institutions. A person who endorses one conspiracy theory is likely to accept another, regardless of mutual contradiction. Machiavellianism is also an indicator of belief in conspiracy thinking; a person is more likely to believe a conspiracy theory if they themselves would consider conspiring. An individual may be influenced by conspiracy theories without their knowledge. One may advocate conspiracy theories if they feel alienated, powerless, or angry, wish to displace responsibility for their problems or yearn for a simple answer to life’s complex problems. …

…The study found that beliefs in conspiracy theories are associated with distrust of authority, hostility, feeling powerless, and being unfairly disadvantaged. Abalakina-Paap et al. concludes, for people who feel powerless, beliefs in specific conspiracy theories allow them to avoid thinking the world is chaotic. Instead, they can believe that covert forces are in operation, and this helps them to understand why they lack the power to control their own lives. Hofstadter (1964) explains that beliefs in conspiracy theories can be traced back to feelings of powerlessness among people who feel like they cannot make themselves felt. Robins and Post (1997) proposes that a central psychological motivation for conspiratorial thinking is to serve as an antidote for the poisonous feeling of powerlessness. Coles and Swami (2010) describe conspiracy theories as a rational attempt to understand complex phenomena and deal with feelings of powerlessness, while Leman (2007) concludes that people are more prone to conspiratorial thinking if they feel powerless in the face of large social authorities or institutions and not part of mainstream society …

As noted by Goertzel (2010), conspiracy theories appeal to people who are discontented with established institutions of their society, and especially with the elites in that society. They are likely to believe that conditions are worsening for people like themselves and that the authorities do not care about them. The conspiracy theory provides a culprit upon which the group can project their anger
-----------------------

At the beginning of Ms. Roush’s essay, she offer’s some definitions of “conspiracy theory” that I find interesting.

“A conspiracy theory is described by Pigden (2006) as a secret plan on the part of a group to influence events in part by covert action. Conspiracy theory has been criticized by the general populace with theorists regarded as paranoid and even mentally ill. More recently, Buenting and Taylor (2010) defined a conspiracy theory as simply: an explanation of an event that is contrary or opposed to the received, official explanation. “

IMO, the TPP is most certainly a “secret plan on the part of a group to influence events in part by covert action”. Considering that Obama refuses to let the public know what is in the TPP, then Obama and some of the US oligarchs are conspiring in some way here.

Many of us here are conspiracy theorists regarding the use of chemical weapons by Assad (while UN inspectors were nearby) since we accept “an explanation of an event that is contrary or opposed to the received, official explanation.”

Are not the .01% “conspiring” to get richer and richer with little thought as to how this effects other groups? Also criminals of all kinds, rich or poor, conspire to gain more access to resources and cash.

Doesn’t the CIA (along with the State Dept) conspire to overthrow or “modify of the composition” of foreign governments via Color Revolutions and other more subtle operations?

[mbrenner]

Let me add a few words to my earlier post.

The instinctive reaction to the half-serious suggestion that the President confront Governor Abbott understandably is that it is just hyperbole. On reflection, though, isn't there reason to think that Obama indeed has an obligation to do something - at least symbolically - that calls out these people? Couldn't he simply say: "As Commander-in-Chief, and President of the United States, I cannot in good conscience ask the men and women of our armed forces to risk their lives in defense of American freedoms while placing them in situations where they are viewed by a small but vociferous segment of their fellow citizens as a hostile force threatening those very freedoms."

As a possible follow-up, any commander who publicly questions the President's
authority to make such a statement should be summarily sacked - whatever that means in administrative terms (relieved of command, place on indefinite leave?)

The failure to say anything at all feeds the sentiment that Abbott's action is within the bounds of the normal and the acceptable. It is quite remarkable that the story hasn't even broken into the MSM which remains obsessed with Jeb Bush's diet and Bruce Jenner's organ transplant.

[turcopolier]

mbrenner

"As a possible follow-up, any commander who publicly questions the President's authority to make such a statement should be summarily sacked - whatever that means in administrative terms (relieved of command, place on indefinite leave?)" You don't understand. POTUS has zero authority, nada over state militia not part of the National Guard. That is why Abbott is using the Texas State Guard. pl