"Yemen People in Sanaa and the North are angry..." Martin J

"Yemen People in Sanaa and the North are angry. People in Aden and the South are ecstatic. Yesterday the Houthis and Ali Abdallah Saleh military stood at the gates of Aden despite resistance. Now they have fled Aden. This is just Day 1. I don't think the Saudis are going to leave it at 3 hours of airstrikes. There has been real damage done to Saleh's military. This makes him vulnerable to his current partners, the Houthis, who have been working with Saleh despite his 5 wars against them since 2004. If they smell blood they may well choose to deal with Saleh first before turning their attention back to the South. The worry is that the Saudis will roll in tanks from Sharurah, and take the town of 'Ataq with its airstrip in Shabwa. They will move then to Marib and secure the strategic refinery/generator of Safer that provides electricity to the whole country. The Saudis see these areas as their borders. They have excellent relations with the tribes there. I do not believe they will countenance fighting the Houthis in their mountains - they would be massacred. At this point I think we are seeing the emergence of an independent South. The cat is out of the bag. Southerners have been engaged in fratricide since at least 1986 but now they are united against the "Shia" Houthis and Saleh. Sectarianism was never an issue here until just a few months ago. This will rip the country apart. The Saudis bear the most blame but the Iranians have been stirring this cauldron very successfully for a number of years. For the Saudis this is akin to the Americans fomenting regime change in Ukraine; its on their border and they can't afford to ignore it. And this all takes place within the regional framework of the greater Iranian-Gulf conflict. The war will take few lives. 60% of Yemenis are food insecure. When the Yemeni Rial tanks those 60% will not be able to afford bread. They will die. Slowly. And quietly. In millions. An utterly pointless avoidable debacle and the US must take much of the blame for the pointless drone programme that kept them interfering in a culture they know nothing of."  Martin J

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An excellent summary by Martin J, who has in-depth knowledge of Yemen and Saudi Arabia.  

I agree with his conclusion that what we are seeing now is a break up of the unnatural union of the former YAR and PDRY states.  IMO this was always a kind of "shotgun marriage" brought on by Yemeni delusions concerning some glorious and largely mythic past in which all the peoples of SW Arabia were somehow one.   This was never the case and the belief that it was so at some time in the past is yet another reminder of the often malign power of the nationalist self image in human affairs.

Martin J is inclined to believe that SA, if it tries to intervene on the ground, will enter Yemen from the Rub al-Khali desert and then turn left into south Yemen, a part of the country largely inhabited by Sunni co-religionists of the Saudis.  Martin J asserts that SA forces will not enter Yemen from the north, i.e., from the Wadi Najran.  He states that to do so would risk a very bad outcome for Saudi Forces.  Zeidi tribal guerrillas would likely "massacre" the Saudis in those distant mountains.  I agree with all of that.  It must be remembered that, in spite of decades of US, French and British training the Saudi forces are very much a force of unknown but dubious quality.  IMO the Saudis would not be able to sustain a ground effort in Yemen without massive US logistical support.

Martin J asserts that sectarianism has not previously been an issue in the Yemens.  This does not correspond to my knowledge of or experience in North Yemen where I served for several years.  In fact, the Houthi rebels are nearly all Zeidi Shia Muslims as is former president Salih who is certainly manipulating this situation to his own advantage.  As Martin J states, Salih, when president, waged war against the Houthis with a relentlessness that characterizes any Yemeni central government that wishes to have control over this very tribal country.  The fact that the Houthis are now backing Salih along with the largely Zeidi armed forces is indicative of the essentially ethno-sectarian nature of Yemeni society in both the north and the south.  

I do not think the Houthi Zeidis are tools of the Iranian government but the "one man one vote" crowd in Washington insists that the Zeidi Houthis are illegitimately seeking on behalf of Iran to overthrow a government that corresponds to the "narrative" favored by the Children's Crusade in Washington.  In fact the Houthis are re-asserting their identity as a separate tribal polity in Yemen. 

IMO the Houthis are the natural allies of the United States in the world wide war against Sunni jihadism.  The United States seems blind to that, blinded by its own delusions concerning the "evolution" of history and the dust thrown in US eyes by the Saudis who fear all things Yemeni.

My forecast of the probable course of events somewhat parallels that of Martin J.

- If the Yemenis are left to sort this out, there will be a relatively bloodless (for Yemen) re-separation of Zeidi dominated north from the Sunni dominated south where AQAP is now the leading power.

- On the other hand if the US follows the Saudi lead into intervention in this civil war there will be a protracted three sided (Zeidis, Saudis and south Yemeni Sunnis) struggle in which the US may find itself benefiting AQAP.  pl

Comments

[mbrenner]

Washington, the GCC, the cut-and-paste media, and even the UN (I believe) refer to Hadi as the legitimate President of Yemen leading a legitimate government. Yet, he never was democratically elected. he was selected for a one year period that concluded some time ago. Why should we not view him as someone who seized power just as the Houtis are condemned for doing? (By the way, same for Abbas in Palestine).

As to the specious claim that 'Yemen' is the victim of indirect Iranian aggression, is anyone in a position to point us to a credible source validating the assertion that the Houtis are an Iranian proxy or even that "Iranians have been stirring this cauldron very successfully for a number of years?" In addition, what is the definition of "stirring?" Does it cover what the US has been doing in Venezuela and Bolivia - leaving aside Ukraine and every place in the Greater Middle East?

[b]

My understanding of the current map of who rules where the Yemeni parts of the Rub al-Khali desert are patrolled by AlQaeda and some other areas the Saudis would have march through are likewise under AQ rule.

I do not doubt that the Saudis have excellent relations with some of these folks but I doubt that they are welcome there.

Also - even the southerner Yemenis who are not aligned with alQaeda or the Houthis will not like any foreign interference -no matter how "sunni" it is- and will fight against it. That has been a historic pattern as far as I can tell.

[confusedponderer]

When the Saudis in their anti-Shia mindlessness keep stirring the pot, they'll end up building an Islamic State in the land formerly known as Yemen so that they'll finally face an islamist threat from madcap jihadis from north AND south.

It is then IMO just a matter of time until we see more anti-Shia terrorist acts like those mosque bombings. Since the Saudis and Shia are involved the matter has a greater chance to become sectarian, because the Saudis ARE sectarian.

[William R. Cumming]

WOW! Thanks P.L. for this timely expert assessment!

[turcopolier]

CP

The Zeidi Shia are not given to jihadism. They may invade Saudi Arabia in retribution once they get their act together but it will one of many wars of Qahtan against the desert beetle eaters. the beetle eaters now drive Mercedes. pl

[turcopolier]

b

The Saudis have brigade sized forces in bases in the SW Rub al-Khali. It may be that the Saudis will be dealt with harshly by AQ and the Zeidi Shia. I seem to have forecast this in my joint post with Martin J. pl

[b]

@Pat " It may be that the Saudis will be dealt with harshly by AQ and the Zeidi Shia."

Certainly by the Zeidi Shia. I am dubious about AQ because the various AQ entities still seem to get money from Saudi donors. Maybe AQ will make a (paid for) truce with the Saudis and let them pass through?

My question though is about the not-AQ Sunni tribals in Yemen. Will they welcome Saudi troops? Or will they rather fight those foreign intruders?

Some fierce anti-Houthis in Yemen I follow were pretty enraged today about the Saudi bomb attacks. It seem that they would take up arms against Saudi troops even when those troops are there to fight their Houthi "enemies".

[The Beaver]

Mr Brenner,

According to Matt Lee (ICP at the UN in NYC), some at the UN are asking:
"if Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi can legally call for and get outside countries' intervention, how it is illegal for Assad in Syria to request and get help from Iran? What if Ben Ali or Mubarak had requested other countries' airstrikes? "

Deux poids deux mesures

[The Beaver]

We are told that there are 10 countries involved in the coalition bombing Yemen.
Amongst the GCC, only 5 out of 6 have accepted ( either Oman or Qatar has said thanks but no thanks)
6th : Egypt, air bombing and saying that they will provide ground troops to KSA (as far as some MSM are concerned)
7th: Sudan said to have offered three fighter planes to the Saudi-led campaign
8th: Jordan
9th: Morocco ( all those paying monarch using Marrakech as their second residence)
10th: Unknown

Does anyone have a breakdown? Thank you

[Charles I]

Staggering. Our policy makers have confused the borders of a dozen alleged nation states they created with national interest.

[confusedponderer]

Not talking about the Shia, I mean the Sunni, and not just Yemenis.

And desert beatle eaters? Not incidentally the same guys who the Iraqis called bearded women?

[kao_hsien_chih]

Or, indeed, Yanukovych from Russia.

[MartinJ]

There is much celebration in the South at the Saudi intervention. They have wanted this for many years. Right back to 1994 when the Saudis were set to recognise an independent South only for Bill Clinton to warn them not to. Back then it was a different world of mopping up Cold War areas of influence and Saleh was very much on board.

Now, with the country reduced to pitiful levels of poverty, the Hadramawt oil boom not having benefited the South, and the collapse of rule of law there, they are desperate for Gulf help. Hadramawt in fact would much rather be annexed by Saudi than have much to do with Aden.

As for AQ, yes they are there in Shabwa and Marib regions but they are allowed free reign by Saleh, who has long used them as tools to draw in US CT funding as well as a tool to kill local Southern leaders. Not all AQ are thus controlled but the significantly active members such as Ansar al-Sharia's Jalal Beleidi for example.

The Iranian influence (not control) is becoming ever more apparent but money, training (from military to civil society activist media training) is being done in Tehran. There are enough clues in open source media going back to 2011 at least if one takes the time to look. Also former Southern (thus Sunni) president Ali Salim al-Beidh has his home and office deep in Beirut's Dahiyah suburb and operates under the protection of Hezbullah. Politics, sect, and loyalty are complex in Yemen and everyone is available for a price.

[liza]

@Beaver:

Al Jazeera has reported Qatar is in the coalition, and that Pakistan is considering a request. Turkey has endorsed the military operation. Oman is hosting the deposed president of Yemen.

[FB Ali]

The 'odd man out' from the GCC is Oman.

The 10th country is Pakistan. The official Saudi news agency says Pakistan was among the 5 non-GCC countries that have expressed a desire to "participate in the operation”. Meanwhile Pakistan said it had been "requested" by the Saudis to join up. In response the Pakistani PM issued a strong statement saying: "...any threat to Saudi Arabia’s territorial integrity would evoke a strong response from Pakistan". (Not quite relevant to the situation! IMO, deliberately so). He is also sending a high-level civil-military delegation to Riyadh on Friday "to assess the situation".

Like the other countries named, Pakistan finds itself in an awkward situation. It has been the recipient of much largesse from the Saudis - most recently a 'gift' of $1.5 billion a couple of years ago. By joining in now it will ensure many more such future gifts. On the other hand, it has its hands full fighting the Jihadis in its own territory, and keeping its guard up against India.

I think they will send a token force, probably a few aircraft to join in the bombing campaign. The Saudis want ground troops (they have enough high-tech planes piloted by US and other foreign 'contract' pilots). Pakistan may be forced to send a token ground force (a battalion, say), which will do guard duties on Saudi territory; they will not fight in Yemen.

[turcopolier]

Martin J

"As for AQ, yes they are there in Shabwa and Marib regions but they are allowed free reign by Saleh, who has long used them as tools to draw in US CT funding as well as a tool to kill local Southern leaders." IMO these AQ types out in the eastern desert marches of Yemen are unpredictable as to how they will react to the presence of large, Saudi led ground forces in their midst. SA has been taking hostile action against such people in SA for several years. Why would AQ not think they will do the same hing in SW Arabia. pl

[FB Ali]

I share your scepticism about AQ. These Jihadi types are never "controlled" by anyone; manipulated, perhaps, but not controlled. And these folks have been under US attack for quite a while; I doubt if they see much difference between the US and the Saudis (for them the latter are just puppets of the former).

MartinJ may know the area well, but he seems to suffer from the same problem that bedevils many US observers in foreign lands: they speak to a few well-placed, well-off people, and believe the views fed to them are those of the whole populace. These countries are far too complex for any such simple characterizations. For example, I can accept that some 'leaders' in Hadramaut would "much rather be annexed" by SA, but I doubt very much that the bulk of ordinary people would.

[mbrenner]

Do you mind sharing some of these "clues" with us? If apparent, Please share with us where and when? If in open sources, which ones? I have the time to take.

[The Beaver]

@ liza

President Hadi is in Riyadh as far as the latest news is concerned.
Since he escaped from Aden by boat, I believe that travelling to KSA would have been easier .

[The Beaver]

Brig. Ali,

Thank you.

The campaign is called Operation Decisive Storm

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/features/2015/03/26/Allies-back-Saudi-led-Decisive-Storm-op-in-Yemen-with-fighter-jets-.html

The Arab League is meeting in Egypt’s Sham el-Sheikh on Saturday and Hadi is attending.

[MartinJ]

If the Saudi presence becomes a long term occupation then yes, they will be attacked by AQ. In the short term they would lose out. Why? They also depend to a large extend on the largesse of certain tribes that grant them haven. If the Saudis are there to defeat the common Shia "enemy" then AQ risks losing credibility with its hosts and thus their welcome.

Then there is the second problem: Tribes in Hadramawt complain to me that whenever they try to confront AQ they suddenly find themselves "confronting a group with the capacity of a state" in terms of weapons, vehicles and access. They mean that the army, the Northern/Saleh army is protecting them and giving them this access and these weapons. It is not in the interests of Saleh to allow local tribes to become in any way autonomous in terms of security - they would then start demanding things like jobs and infrastructure and an end to Northern occupation. In this regard AQ is a vital buffer tool for this job. It not only takes angry youth and gives them an opportunity to vent their anger, its also anger against their own communities rather than the North.

The caste system of Hadramawt with the Sayyids at the top, the less Islamic and secular tribes in the middle, and the masakeen at the bottom all play into this dynamic. Getting rid of Saleh will not cure the area of AQ but it will allow local people to deal with their own issues more effectively. Adding Saudi forces into this mix in the short term will probably not change much, IMO, but in the longer term no one likes occupation much.

[MartinJ]

I agree with your general assessment of what troubles US observers. In my defence I can say I speak to as many people as I can. As a rule I avoid anyone in a suit though - they tend to have an agenda and are not too dissimilar to the rest of the Yemeni or Gulf elite. No, I prefer dealing with simple people. they are far more interesting, far more genuine. A politician or businessman I can meet in Dubai or London or NY, after all, but its not my cup of tea.

Hadramis wish themselves rid of the Adenis because they remember the Socialist years. They also have deep links with the elites in Saudi because many of them (e.g. Bin Ladens, Bughshans, al-Amoodi etc) are all Hadrami families and keep close ties with their communities. Lastly they don't much like Saleh or the Northerners. They have always traded with Saudi Arabia and the rest of the Gulf states. I may be generalising somewhat but I think if we polled them the majority would opt for becoming a province of KSA over being part of an independent South.

[MartinJ]

I need to search for the articles. There is one where a group of Hirak activists are taken abroad for media training. they don't know where they are going and literally land in Tehran. It all sounds rather ridiculous but I have subsequently got to know some of those people. Some that were shocked and it just ended as a story for them and others who ended up as media activists for Iran.

But I stress that its not ideological. Yemenis are just not like that. They're not Syrians or Iraqis, or Lebanese. They are deeply ingrained with pragmatism and they come from the poorest country in the Arab world. They will gladly take money whenever it is offered but as the Saudis will tell you, that never equals loyalty. They will take the fact they got money from Iran to the Saudis, and expect the Saudis give them more money. Then if the Qataris come in they will switch to the new "milk cow" and milk that dry before finding another one.

[turcopolier]

MartinJ

"I stress that its not ideological. Yemenis are just not like that." OK I will say it again. Religion can have an ideological importance. It can also be the essence of segmentary lineage identity. that is how it functions among native Yemenis. pl

[mbrenner]

I am sorry to say this but you obviously are offering us unsubstantiated conclusions and appraisals which should be discounted accordingly. One should hope that SST would be one forum for discussion that is free of that.