Too many rats, not enough cheese - TTG

Vicky Nuland better get her ass back to Ukraine to smooth over the latest kerfuffle. The oligarchs are about to come to blows over what’s left of Ukraine’s resources. It’s going to take more than a bag of cookies this time. This is a quick take on the situation by “The Saker.” 

“Then there is the mini-war taking place between the “President” Poroshenko and the notorious Jewish oligarch Kolomoiskii over the control of Ukrtransnafta (read about it here and here).  This is a clear sign of the deep process of “Somalization” taking place in which all the power in the country is divided between warlords.  Kolomoiskii is probably a far more powerful figure than Poroshenko and he controls the “neo-Khazarian Ukraine” (southern Ukraine, Black Sea cost, Odessa region) and there are many who believe that he is the man who paid for the downing of MH17 (Kolomoiski admitted to this on a private video call by Skype).  Still, he is ready to run should it be needed, and has therefore secured three citizenships: Ukrainian, Cypriot and Israeli.” 

This showdown is still in its early stages. It began when Poroshenko and the Rada attempted to wrest control of Ukraine’s state run oil and gas administrations away from the de facto control of Kolomoiskyi. Poroshenko intends to privatize these industries and sell them to outside investors in exchange for much needed cash. Kolomoiskyi was having none of this nonsense. He already lost a chunk of his money when Crimea went to Russia and Novorossiya rebelled. He wasn't about to lose more. Poroshenko and his allies in Kiev declared Kolomoiskyi’s actions criminal and vowed to get him under control. Jeffery Pyatt even attempted to talk Kolomoiskyi down. That didn't work. It now appears that Kolomoiskyi is pulling some of his battalions out of the frontline in the Donbas and out of Odessa. They may be going to his stronghold in Dnepropetrovsk or maybe on to Kiev. We don’t know yet. There are also reports of two National Guard battalions loyal to Kiev are also headed to Dnipropetrovsk, although Kiev later denied this.

Along with his recent obscenity laden rants, Kolomoiskyi has made some astonishing statements. He declared that he recognized the legitimacy of the DNR and LNR authorities since the residents of those oblasts voted for and continue to support Zakarchenko and Plotnitsky. He wants other oblasts to have broad federalized authorities and to retain 90% of their revenues. That sounds more like Putin’s position on a federalized Ukraine. In addition to this, a lot of dirty laundry is being aired about criminal activities of many of the leaders of the Kiev junta. Nuland cannot be enjoying this. 

This is not as uneven a fight as one may think… one oligarch against the Kiev regime. Kolomoiskyi finances and controls a large part of the Ukrainian military forces. He also controls the fueling capacity for the entire armed forces. His Privatbank is a major part of Ukraine’s financial system. If that bank goes down, Kiev goes down. It is possible that he may assert full control over Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and other oblasts. He won’t be a popular leader, but he will be a powerful leader. Kiev could be faced with a Novoukrainia as well as a Novorossiya. Or Kolomoiskyi can flee to Israel with most of his money. He would be untouchable there. Or this can all fizzle out in a few days and it will be business as usual in Ukraine.

One thing is for sure. We will barely hear about this in the MSM, if at all.

TTG

http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-03-20/ukraine-s-oligarchs-are-at-war-again-

http://cassad-eng.livejournal.com/147595.html

http://sputniknews.com/europe/20150322/1019864329.html

Comments

[JerseyJeffersonian]

http://johnhelmer.net/?p=12986

TTG & All,

Found at Naked Capitalism's Links section this morning is this post from John Helmer. In it is reported that Kolomoisky has been relieved of his governorship of Dniepropetrovsk, & is perhaps also having problems with his residency permit in Switzerland. If true this could have great significance.

[David Habakkuk]

TTG,

Let me bounce some thoughts off you.

One question is how, if I was one of the relevant people in the Russian security services, I would view the prospects of an assassination attempt against Putin (how I should view these is a secondary question – my prime concern is how the Russian security services are likely to view the situation.)

My guess is that I would not only be extremely concerned about such prospects, but also not discount the possibility that elements in the security services of some NATO powers might be happy to involve themselves in such an assassination attempt.

It would also seem to me likely that I would consider plane trips by Putin as a point of maximum vulnerability. And for the reason just given, I would not be confident that his aircraft would necessarily be safe over, for instance, Poland.

Accordingly, I would expect both to make last minute changes to planned routes, insofar as this was possible, and also, very probably, to disseminate disinformation about these and other matters connected to plane trips Putin had to take.

Meanwhile, I would certainly be aware that throughout the post-Soviet space, the headlong demobilisation of the internal security and foreign intelligence systems of the old 'counterintelligence state' created an extraordinary Machiavellian world. People playing on more than one side are endemic.

This is partly because so many loyalties are ambiguous, also because of the influence of shifting calculations of who is going to win out, together with bribery and blackmail – there are still strong elements of what one might call an 'I've got something on you society' throughout the region.

Also relevant is the interpenetration of supposedly legitimate business, politics, and organised crime.

It is a common misconception in the West that these networks are, as it were, controlled from the top down. This may be a radical oversimplification – as elsewhere, the opportunities for tails to wag dogs are endemic.

Present throughout the post-Soviet space, these characteristics are particularly salient in 'borderlands' of Ukraine, both because the legacies of the past create peculiarly ambivalent loyalties, and because the domination of politics by competing oligarch clans was never reined as, as it was by Putin in Russia.

It seems to me not at all impossible to imagine a situation where, out of all this chaos, Kolomoiski's intelligence network obtained what appeared to be reliable information that Putin's plane was going to fly over Ukraine. It could even have been that the deliberate intention was to cause confusion between his plane and MH17, which, as is well known, looked quite similar.

This is no more than a very tentative theory, but there are a number of considerations which seem to me in its favour.

An obvious one is the complete absence of any kind of compelling evidence – be it from the analysis of the remnants of MH17, or from observations of what was happening on the ground – that a Buk shot down the plane.

If indeed the Russians were right about the presence of one or more aircraft in the vicinity, this would exonerate the insurgents – but also make a 'false flag' operation unlikely.

The one set of circumstances in which it would make sense would be if those responsible for sending the plane or planes to shoot down MH17 – very likely with a Buk battery providing targeting information – genuinely believed that the target was Putin.

They could then have expected that both Ukrainian nationalists – and a lot of other people who seem to have convinced themselves that the presence of Vladimir Putin is the central obstacle to the realisation of cherished political agendas – would regard them as heroes.

[Charles I]

I agree entirely, we are the provocateurs, FB suggested I put up an irony alert. My intent was to highlight the hypocritical, persistent, dangerous, absurdity of our our leaders and press.

[anna-marina]

Agree

[Thomas]

"Kolomoiski's intelligence network obtained what appeared to be reliable information that Putin's plane was going to fly over Ukraine."

Ihor had the government's civil aviation portfolio at the time.

[The Twisted Genius]

Sorry for the delay. I’m back up north and only have internet connectivity when I go to Lowes for more building supplies. It's really rather delightful.

Your theory sounds perfectly reasonable to me. If I was responsible for Putin’s security, I would have zero trust in Western intentions. I would consider them capable of any and all dirty tricks. Washington, Warsaw and, of course, Kiev have demonized Putin and have damned near blamed him for all of Europe’s woes. Kiev has embraced the killing of Donbas civilians and the destruction of Donbas civilian infrastructure as the cornerstone of their war strategy. Washington and Warsaw appear to have no problem with that.

I would take extreme measures in protecting Putin’s plane. As you said, that is a point of maximum vulnerability. These measures would include the employment of maskirovka. To alter the flight plan is such a way as to have adversaries think some other plane was Putin’s would be an effective measure. Whether this is the case with MH17 is pure supposition. I doubt it would fool the US for long, but fooling Kolomoiskyi with such tactics is quite possible. His reach and capabilities within Ukraine are impressive and rival the power of Kiev. If not for the backing of the US, I don’t think the junta could stand up to Kolomoiskyi for long. Given all that, I do believe Kolomoiskyi could have downed MH17 without the knowledge or assistance of the Kiev junta.

[Fred]

TTG,

Are our Foreign Policy people so naive as to not see this possibility and its consequences? (just a rhetorical question). I begin to see just what the col. means when he referred to some of our elected officials as "parvenu".

[anna-marina]

Kiev-backed torturers in East Ukraine: http://thesaker.is/arms-to-the-sadists-us-congress-urges-pres-obama-to-provide-ukraine-with-more-torture-techniques/