The South Syria Front

"The southern offensive has been ongoing for over a month. The insurgents went from Jordan along the Golan up to the Lebanese border under cover of Israeli artillery. Whenever they were attacked by the Syrian army they fired a mortar into Israel proper and the Israeli army responded by shelling the Syrian army because, it said, it is the Syrian army's responsibility to keep everything calm. Nice logic ... The move is now into the direction of Damascus but a Syrian counteroffensive is planned and will soon start. These insurgents and all the fighting have been led by al-Nusra while all official mentioning, like in that Reuters piece, claims it is an FSA offensive. It is not. Al-Nusra is clearly in the lead." b -  14 November, 2014 on SST

*********** 

"In early February, an alliance of Iran, the Syrian regime, and Hezbollah launched a major military offensive against rebel groups in Syria's south, close to the borders of Israel and Jordan. This campaign bears potential strategic consequences for Israel and the Syrian theater, and calls for close U.S. and international attention.

Some 4,000-5,000 troops have been massed for the offensive, which focuses on the provinces of Deraa, bordering Jordan, and Quneitra, bordering the Israel-controlled Golan Heights. Combatants include units from the Syrian army; the National Defense Forces, a government militia; an estimated 2,000 Hezbollah fighters, constituting a sizable portion of the group's forces in Syria; and, notably, Iranian military elements including advisors and senior officers. A website close to the Syrian regime posted a photo of Gen. Qasem Soleimani, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force, visiting the area, signaling its importance to Iran.

 

The attacking forces have experienced modest success overall thus far. After capturing several towns and villages and dominating hilltops in northwest Deraa, about twenty kilometers from the Israeli border, they encountered strong rebel opposition and adverse weather conditions. However, with the aid of Syrian airstrikes, they continue to persistently push southward and westward. "  BG (ret) Michael Herzog - former IDF General Staff intelligence officer.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/southern-syria-a-new-front-for-israel

--------------------

Herzog is not being honest in the set-up for his piece.  As "b," the prominent German blogger, (and Berthold Brecht fan) observed on SST in late 2014, this round of combat south of Damascus began with a US attempt to push the FSA to the leadership of some aspect of the civil war.  To that end CIA trained opposition fighters (FSA, Nusra, etc) were maneuvered north from Jordan along the east slope of the Golan heights region  under cover of Israeli artillery and air support and then launched NE in the direction of Damascus some 40 miles away.  Predictably the Nusra front assumed control of this operation while it was under way.  This effectively made the US a de facto ally of the Nusra Front (AQ in Syria).  This political disaster has not escaped notice in Washington and CIA "control" of Jordan based assistance to the rebel menagerie.

Predictably, the Syrian Government gathered its forces and allies for a counter-offensive.  This is now underway.  pl

Comments

[Fred]

Col.,

Does Jordan really want to be complicit in aiding al-Nursa in this effort? Surely the results of the neocon destruction in Iraq is lesson enough? They already have ISIS on one flank.

[turcopolier]

Fred

The Jordanians and their kings have been more willing to trust us than they should have been. pl

[confusedponderer]

"Whenever they were attacked by the Syrian army they fired a mortar into Israel proper and the Israeli army responded by shelling the Syrian army because, it said, it is the Syrian army's responsibility"

Whenever someone other than Hezbollah rockets Israel, they retaliate against Hamas under the same 'logic'.

That they dare do so against a neighbouring state shows that they are certain of their superiority - they know that Syria will just take it in order not to escalate since that would cost them dearly, given Israel's superiority.

Syria is fighting under very difficult conditions. It is remarkable that they persist, but then, they do not have much of a choice. The only choice the US let Assad at Geneva was to step down. Utterly preposterous, given Assad's control over much of the country (what was it - 13 of the country's 15 provinces?). It's fight for survival.

In the meanwhile, the Israelis are clearly well aware of what they are doing, and they do so deliberately. Theay have counterbattery radar and things like that. They know who is shooting at them and from where. They could hit the unicorn army. They choose not to.

I mean, given that IS andthe like are irreconcilably hostile to Israel also, doesn't bother the Izzies because they are not afraid of them (now) and feel that a mess of liquid conflict, in which IS/JAN will live out their genocidal tendencies, beyond their borders is preferrable to the stability posed by intact states?

What a foolish, reckless and shortsighted idea.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I would like to remind you that EU is waging an economic war against Syrian Arab Republic right at this moment.

"What a foolish, reckless and shortsighted idea..."

[confusedponderer]

Banak,
it is one thing to foolishly do that - and another to actually participate in the fighting and shell Syrian positions in a deliberately misdirected response to rebel provocations.

Still, you are right to say that Europe has mindlessly fallen in line behind US, British and French policy on Syria.

Still, while the EU does want regime change - foolishly - they do not want a sea of chaos. In fact, they're aghast at that prospect, and at the prospect of the Great Return of the Jihadis. With Israel, I'm not so sure.

For one, Israel cannot care less about the Great Return of the Jihadis. Domestically that is no threat to them at all.

My impression is that Bibi does think that as long as them Ayrabs kill off each other they'll leave Israel alone, that in the worst case hze can handle any spill-over, and that he prefers a weak Syria, since that will mean that he can keep the Golan in perpetuity (again, this poor dove finds no partner for peace!).

Israeli partisans like Wurmser seem to actually find the prospect of chaos prospect inevitable, and call for the US and Isral to "expedite the chaotic collapse" and have Israel lord it over the rubble if an attempt to shape the outcome fails.

"The issue is not whether Syria in its Baathist form will survive or prevail in the long run. Like communism, Baathism’s days are numbered. The issue here is whether the West and Israel can construct a strategy for limiting and expediting the chaotic collapse that will ensue in order to move on to the task of creating a better circumstance."

Yes, for instance by having a Unicorn army march on Damascus.

http://zfacts.com/metaPage/lib/1996_12_Wurmser_Crumbling_Iraq.pdf

But, amusingly, Wurmser in that paper still dreams of Hashemites kings taking Assad's and Saddam's place when he writes: "The Hashemites alone are adept enough in forging strong tribal, familial and clan alliances to create viable nations in the Levant."

I am sure IS/JaN will choke laughing, reading that. Kings or tribes mean nothing to them except as practical factors. They owe loyalty only to Allah.

[Adam L Silverman]

CP,

This has been one of the consistent components of Israel's responses to strikes into Israel from outside its borders. It was originally developed as a way to punish the neighboring Arab states in order to deter them from tolerating, let alone hosting or supporting Palestinian terrorists. Strikes such as these were a contributing factor to the internal to Jordan tensions that led King Hussein to crack down on the Palestinians in September of 1970, which becomes popularly known as Black September. The efficacy of this type of response has been mixed.

[turcopolier]

Adam Silverman
"one of the consistent components of Israel's responses to strikes into Israel from outside its borders" The contention in this case is that the FSA/Nusra force fired into the Golan in coordination with an Israeli need to justify IDF artillery and air attacks on the Syrian Government's effort to halt an advance on Damascus. We are talking fraud, no? pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

Thank you for your comments.

I read the article you had posted.

A mixture of debatable theoretical musings on the formation of state and nation as well as detailed and accurate understandings of Syria's politics, followed by fantasy about Jordan's capacities and capabilities, ending with really flawed understanding of the Shia in Lebanon, Iran, and Iraq.

Did you notice the formulation "West and Israel"?

I would recommend it for publication in the US Atlantic Magazine, where such pieces can substitute for understanding.

The Economist would be another good place - giving illusion of understanding where there is only propaganda.

[confusedponderer]

You're welcome.

The piece is, in a sense, a neo-con classic. Wurmser wrote it in 1996.

The phrase "expediting the chaotic collapse" is what I always cponect it with. It really speaks volumes. To Wurmser and his fellow travellers history is on the march to its final destination - and he wants to hurry it up!

And I agree, as far as the prospects of the survival of Ba'ath party is concerned, the piece is even pretty prescient.

I think that Wurmser when he speaks of the "West and Israel" means 'Israel' and the west only insofar as he thinks that the interests of both are indeed identical anyway, and when he says 'West' he means America.

That way he can be an Israel-firster and America-firster at the sme time without dissonance.

It only falls part when one allows the idea that the interests of the two are not identical.

[Cee]

CP,

IS andthe like are irreconcilably hostile to Israel also, doesn't bother the Izzies because they are not afraid of them

I disagree.

From a Haaretz headline:

UN reveals Israeli links with Syrian rebels
Reports by UN observers in the Golan submitted to 15 members of Security Council detail regular contact between IDF officers and armed Syrian opposition figures at the border.
By Barak Ravid 06:00 07.12.14 7

From http://beforeitsnews.com/alternative/2015/02/un-reveals-israels-support-for-isis-3108490.html

Israel has been doing more than simply treating wounded Syrian civilians in hospitals, and details direct regular contacts between Israel Defense Forces (IDF) officers and armed Syrian opposition fighters, working closely together in the Golan Heights since the spring of 2013.

Thanks to the American intervention which got rid of Saddam Hussein – and ultimately to the US Jewish neoconservative movement and Israel lobby that instigated it ideologically and politically -, Iraq, once the strongest supporter of Palestinians (yes, contrary to popular Zionist assertions, they do exist), is weak and divided.

So it’s time to turn to another stable player in the region and potential enemy of Israel: Syria. The protracted civil war on the Syrian government is depleting the country’s army and devastating its infrastructure; rebuilding them will preoccupy Syria for a long time and defuse any military threat from it to Israel. Covertly, Israel is a crucial key player in prolonging this war and is the major beneficiary of maintaining what the Israeli pundit Amos Harel called the “stable instability” in Syria and the region.

But several recent developments have exposed Israel’s no longer discreet role, among which the UN documentation.

The new report was the work of the UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF), UN observers in the Golan Heights, and was submitted to the 15 members of the UN Security Council at the beginning of December 2014.

Reports by the UNDOF are regularly submitted to the UN Security Council, and since March 2013 have started to show that Israel admits wounded Syrians into the country for medical treatment in hospitals.

Initially the IDF claimed that this was only for medical assistance for civilians, but then UN observers witnessed direct contact between (((IDF forces and ISIS fighters.)))

The UN reports said that 89 rebels were transported into the Israeli-occupied zone between March and May 2014, while activists in southern Deraa province and in Quneitra quoted in media reports claim that communications increased between rebels and the Israeli military before the eruption of heavy clashes in the area.

Israel’s health ministry says about 1,000 Syrians have been treated in Israeli hospitals.

In answer to a question by i24News on whether Israel hospitalises members of al-Nusra Front (the al-Qaeda terror group in Syria) and Daesh (the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State, or ISIS), an Israeli military spokesman’s office admitted: “In the past two years the Israel Defense Forces have been engaged in humanitarian, life-saving aid to wounded Syrians, irrespective of their identity.”

[Babak Makkinejad]

Yes, and then there is that Israelis like to think of themselves as a "Western" country.

In that they remind me of all these other non-Western people who wish to wrap themselves and to otherwise associate themselves with the very successful and dominant civilization constructed by those people inhabiting the areas West of the Diocletian line.

EU can make a lot of money by issuing "Western" identity papers

[Charles I]

From the north, a harbinger of our, er, success

"One of the first US-supplied and trained Syrian opposition group has fallen apart in the face of stronger groups":

http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-backed-opposition-group-disbands-syria-1834881582#sthash.z4hnwCWY.dpuf

[confusedponderer]

I didn't catch it at first, "West and Israel" - the West and something else indeed.

[confusedponderer]

Cee,
"Reports by UN observers in the Golan submitted to 15 members of Security Council detail regular contact between IDF officers and armed Syrian opposition figures at the border."

I don't deny that. But to the extent that there is cooperation between Islamist and Israel, not to mention IS, I believe it is pragmatic but temporary.

Al Qaeda wants to fight the far enemy, the US. The Jihadis fighting in Syria want to fight the close enemy - Assad - first.

They all want to one day liberate Jerusalem.

The Israelis must know that.