Allen's "balloon"

"The US special presidential envoy for the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL said on March 2 that the United States “will protect” Syrian rebel fighters trained and equipped by the United States, adding that a US-enforced no-fly zone or protected corridor is “under consideration,” as reported by Barbara Slavin for Al-Monitor.

The remarks by retired Marine Gen. John Allen suggest a military commitment beyond what is proposed by the Barack Obama administration’s draft authorization to use military force, which is presently before Congress, and may give new life to Turkey’s bid to draw the United States into military action against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad"  Al Monitor

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Once again, let's be clear.  A "no fly zone" necessarily implies a massive and continuing effort to destroy the Syrian Air Force and thereby win the war for the strongest among the rebels.  These are IS and Nusra.  The notion that the unicorn army of Syrian moderate guerrillas would be the beneficiaries is just laughable.  

Turkey and the US Navy would provide the most obvious basing and the UK sovereign basees on Cyprus would undoubtedly be part of the action.

There would be a lot of blood, a lot of bombing and a lot of civilian casualties.  Presumably, the Syrian government would be blamed for all of that.

One might fairly ask (rhetorically) why the Turks do not simply advance into Syria and accomplish Erdogan's heart's desire while sparing the rest of us the trouble?  pl

Read more: http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/03/syria-obama-rebels-no-fly-zone.html?utm_source=Al-Monitor+Newsletter+%5BEnglish%5D&utm_campaign=9124474718-Week_in_review_March_9_2015&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_28264b27a0-9124474718-93066749#ixzz3Ttn28SH0

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

P.L. Thanks for this post! It reveals the almost total bankruptcy of US FP on these questions and policies. IMO of course.

[Fred]

In regards to this (lead) balloon we should ask the same question that General Sosabowski allegedly asked before Market Garden. "Just whose side are you on?"

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Col. Lang,

Here is an unsolicited answer to your (rhetorical) question: Most of the Turks who voted for Erdogan did so for cash, not for ideology. Dying for the delusions of a proven psychopath was not part of the bargain. I would be in support of such action from Turkey if the craven "liberal" cowards who voted for the current bunch of islamists in the name of "democracy", and the said islamists and their families would constitute the expeditionary force.

Ishmael Zechariah

[jld]

Not a very good omen, makes one wonder how many and WHICH people in the US are terminally intoxicated by comics, movies and video games
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u3tC8TPh9oQ
This idiotic video got more than half a million views in less than 4 days...

[YT]

Recall address.

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2015/02/jobs-for-jihadists-by-walrus.html

"1 Ivory Tower Blvd.,
Fantasy Land U.S.,54321"

Explains plenty.

[Jose]

Turks have to counter the Iranians becoming the liberators of Kurdistan...lol

Plus Saudis and Israeli's via US Treasury will pay a good rate...lol

Off topic, what is your opinion of the Tikrit operation?

[bth]

Does Allen have any authority at all to make this commitment?

[turcopolier]

bth

Only what the president gives him when not focused on police racism. pl

[João Carlos]

I think that to give Syria to IS is a very very bad idea... Syrian christian and shia communities will suffer a lot of pain under IS and IS is probable to kill them.

Are these people (Marine Gen. John Allen and others) crazy? There is no one that see what stupid thing they are doing?

[Charles I]

Notice how it wasn't captured before it fell off the 24 hr news cycle?

[Tyler]

So what's the chance of the Russians sending pilot "advisors" to fly with the SAF?

Damn, shades of Spanish Civil War.

[kodlu]

Hear hear! I agree fully.

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Tyler,

Any kind of a no-fly zone will not be able to secure UN Security Council approval. Then, the Russians might provide SAA some operational Antey-2500 units, leading to interesting results. Folks might be trying to start the SHTF epoch, in preparation for the coming of the celestial Hoover.

Ishmael Zechariah

[Will]

Antey-2500 missile advisors

[Tyler]

Ishmael,

True true. I was thinking of the SCW in how it was a testing ground for the tactics and tech of WWII, so might Syria be for WWIII.

[Harper]

Bob Gates can fully corroborate Col. Lang's point re. no fly zones being a full act of war. Gates objected to the no fly zone in Libya, knowing it would mean regime change, not a humanitarian effort to stop the sacking of Benghazi. He left the Administration months before his scheduled departure because he saw the handwriting on the wall, and knew we were lying to Russia and China to get them to abstain at the UNSC rather than veto.

[Castellio]

Your last sentence, Harper, is that known, or conjecture?

[kao_hsien_chih]

Speaking of S-300VM...

http://www.defenceweb.co.za/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=38290:egypt-to-receive-s-300vm-surface-to-air-missiles-this-year&catid=50:Land&Itemid=105

I did not expect that Russians would follow through with the Egyptian order for these buggers (well, they still might not, I guess.) Maybe the liberationista-arms dealers still think the Islamists should have won in Egypt after all...

[robt willmann]

Castellio,

I think that Harper's comment is correct. The U.S. conned Russia and China into not opposing the UN security council resolution about Libya in 2011 by putting in vague language about humanitarian help and protecting civilians, that did not sound like large scale bombing or air support for the so-called rebel groups working to topple the Libyan government. Russia and China did not catch on to the propensity for U.S. lawyers to stretch words way past their breaking point into outright linguistic deception. Since then, Russia and China have made sure that any resolution says expressly that the UN is acting only under the article that does not authorize the use of force.

[confusedponderer]

"I think that to give Syria to IS is a very very bad idea... Syrian christian and shia communities will suffer a lot of pain under IS and IS is probable to kill them."

To the pro-Israel wing of the Western enthusiasts about the idea it is worth it because it breaks the "Shia crescend", and severs Hezbollah's land supply line, so Israel can 'Cannae them' and, finally, achieve a Siegfrieden in which it imposes conditions on all of their neighbours wou will then start to love them in return. They are chasing the mirage of a decisive Israeli victory for decades now.

For the R2P/regime change entusiasts, Assad must go as an end in itself, they have ventured abroad to fand found ind a monster to destroy and they are not going to give in and give the impression of weakness. To them IS is an unwelcome complication, which they resolve with bold meximalism - Assad AND IS must be tackled simultaneously, so that IS will not fill the vacuum left by Assad. One can only marvel at the unadulterated brilliance! That way they can have their cake and eat it too! Ego and vanity IMO play a great role here.

The Turks want Assad gone, ever since Erdogan broke with him. They are happy to see IS cut the Kurds down to size, and sympatise with IS ideologically. My hunch and current working theory is that the reason the Turks abandoned Assad as a friend because of economic Gulfie pressure. The extent to which Erdogan, an Islamist after all, actually sympatises with IS ideologically I can only guess.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-01-230914.html

As far as the Saudis and the Qataris are concerned - the Syrian Christian communites don't matter at all, and the Shia are apostates and have it coming anyway.

In the words of Prince Bandar: "The time is not far off in the Middle East, Richard, when it will be literally 'God help the Shia'. More than a billion Sunnis have simply had enough of them"

As Patrick Cockburn put it "In some areas, being Shia is akin to being a Jew in Nazi Germany".

People like Bandar are not concerned about the atrocities that will come with an IS takeover - they are the very point of the exercise.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/iraq-crisis-how-saudi-arabia-helped-isis-take-over-the-north-of-the-country-9602312.html

It is a height of cynicism or wilfull blindness that, of all people, R2Pers have allied themselves in Syria with the genocidal rabble that Bandar and the Quataris have roused. Because, regime change.

[William R. Cumming]

A very important comment IMO!

[Swami Bhut Jolokia]

I think police racism is a more pressing problem, no?

[Babak Makkinejad]

Those Turks also appreciated that their women folks were not barred from state institutions for weaning scarves or otherwise discriminated against in that regard.

[Fred]

Three days of the Condor Legion?

[Charles I]

So a week ago, it was reported by the BEEB at the outset of The Battle For Tikrit that forces had engaged from the south, supposedly occupying the police station in Al-Dour, outh of Tikrit proper,"while fighting raged" nice little map, I posted the link.

This week no word on the south, but claims of "entering" and "retak[ing]" al-Alam to the north of the city center, as the "springboard" of the liberation of the city proper. It indicates Iraqi government forces control the two airports and a big military base, so maybe they can drive ISIS out.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-31822701