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02 February 2015

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Imagine

The Korsun Pogrom bus lynching appears to have been intentionally ignored by the President or his advisers. So I believe it's a proactive push.

Joe100

JohnH -

The plain existence proof is that if Russia had invaded they most probably would have been in Kiev in very short order.

Babak Makkinejad

The Spanish Civil War was described in the same manner by Hitler; he wished for its prolongation.

David Habakkuk

Babak Makkinejad,

It won’t be. As has been crystal clear from the outset, Putin needs the problems of trying to absorb the whole of Eastern Ukraine, let alone the whole Ukraine, like a hole in the head.

It is a problem with American policy towards Russia that very few people in the West have ever understood the strategy of ‘containment’ as its supposed architect, George Kennan, understood it.

A central premise was quite precisely that, in trying to establish Russian hegemony over Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, Stalin had bitten off more than he could chew.

However, as Kennan well understood, the Soviets would have difficulty in withdrawing from Eastern Europe, because to do so would involve raising fundamental questions about the – uncertain – legitimacy of their system in Russia.

So, Kennan reasoned, if Soviet control could be destabilised in Eastern Europe, a process of disintegration could be produced that would collapse Soviet power in Russia, producing chaos ‘beyond description’.

Some Russians understand this strategy rather well. See for example, an acute analysis by Vladimir Pechatnov, available at

http://dspace.khazar.org/jspui/bitstream/123456789/955/1/01.pdf

Absolutely the last thing Putin wants is to repeat Stalin’s mistakes, by trying to maintain control over areas where there is bound to be intense resistance.

The Americans and British may have learnt nothing from the Cold War – Putin has.

David Habakkuk

F.B. Ali,

In recent months he has been an enormous disappointment. I had thought he might both himself represent a return to sanity in the madhouse, and be a harbinger of a wider return.

But his comments about Gaza and relations with Russia make that view very hard to hold.

Joe100

Aka -

I noticed at b's blog that he is finding that EU MSM has shifted significantly since Soros's push for $50 billion at Davos and is now providing amore balanced view of what is really going on in the Ukraine. If this is an accurate comment, perhaps this reflects a growing awareness in the EU that they need to back off their sanctions and demonizing Russia stand.

John Helmer has a good story on the Davos Soros/Ukraine shenanigans (at http://johnhelmer.net/?p=12560), noting that the Ukraine shelling and attacks that initiated the current fighting may have been designed to gain financial bailout support from the EU..

Charles I

Merkel gets it:

http://www.news.nom.co/germany-will-not-send-arms-to-15201572-news/

Britain dunno what its doing:

http://news.yahoo.com/britain-still-exporting-arms-russia-023042537.html

http://www.express.co.uk/news/world/462592/Britain-could-be-on-warpath-with-Russia-to-stop-invasion-of-Ukraine

"Britain could be on warpath with Russia to stop 'invasion' of Ukraine

GOVERNMENT officials in Kiev are claiming Britain must stop Russian troops crossing Ukraine's borders because of an agreement made in 1994."

Babak Makkinejad

I do not think so.

Novo Rossiya will pre-empt the introduction of Western military into Ukraine - the border country.

It is worth it to Russia when there is no other viable choice for the Russians.

David Habakkuk

Apologies for sloppy proofreading -- should have been 24 June.

charly

If Russia is gone split Ukraine it is not along the Dnieper but where Russian speakers* are the majority. This includes the whole South & Kiev. This is why they waited. With luck the river is frozen so blowing up the bridges wont work to stop the invasion/reconquest/liberation/whatever


* Ukraine is mostly bilingual.

bth

This article referenced planned deployment of 173rd AB to Ukraine as trainers. http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/airborne-american-troops-ukraine/2015/01/31/id/621896/

Tyler

ALCON,

I will be surprised if the US does not do something stupid. The Children's Crusade is made up of the same progressive idiots who think blank slate is real and have never heard of Hobbes except as maybe "some sort of racist".

These types can't accept an alternate world view other than their schizophrenic paradigm. Russia and Putin, which increasingly take a tact directly opposed to the West's libertine globalization tyranny. To the Child Crusaders, this cannot be.

kao_hsien_chih

DH, BM,

It almost looks like how things might have been if the British were actively trying to promote problems in Bosnia-Herzegovina so that the Germans could be drawn into some "foolish thing in the Balkans." Not saying that that was how things happened in 1914, but it certainly looks like it is how things are going in 2015, with the American foreign policy leadership doing the engineering.

Thomas

A more likely response would be having those Ukrainian Army units that are fed up with the Kievian Crew and the Oligarch Militias do a counter coup. Probably has been in the planning works for the past several weeks.

Overall, this is another Nouveau Khan Global Game move that will end in complete and utter failure, as always.

MRW

Two fascinating articles about the conflict form Fort Russ website.

(1) "Nikishino: Novorossia's "Extraordinary Force" in Action?" Feb1, 2015 [mentions Colonel Cassad and the new Russian tanks that are not yet in full production. Video link to them.]
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2015/02/nikishino-novorossias-extraordinary.html

(2) "Meet The Pilot Who Shot Down Malaysian Boeing MH-17 - Vladislav Voloshin: 'The Plane Was In the Wrong Place at the Wrong Time'"
http://fortruss.blogspot.com/2014/12/meet-pilot-who-shot-down-malysian.html

VietnamVet

charly,

So far Russia has been coldly calculating; acting like an adult trying to deal with a psychotic off their meds. I can only hope this continues.

For the separatists fighting from the East the Dnieper River is a natural defense line and gives Russia a landline to Crimea. However, the urban warfare of seizing Mariupol may be too difficult and it may end up blockaded until a peace settlement. It also leaves Odessa and the ethnic Russian majority in the south to the tender mercies of Kiev.

http://motls.blogspot.com/2014/02/split-country-understanding-how-west.html

However, seizing Kiev is a bridge too far. Russia could do it in days but rubbing it in the West’s face would incite the hotheads to send in NATO troops. An invasion by Russia or NATO would start with a fight for air superiority between two superpowers. WWIII would be off and running.

D

Serving uniformed officers aren't the only ones loath to comment or be more than silent and invisible when Israel humiliates the US or commits crimes. So are politicians, staffers, bureaucrats, appointed officials, and scholars. Nobody wants to end their career for speaking the truth. It is a terrible thing that has been done to the ability to freely discuss America's interests.

Odin's Raven

Remember back in 1973, when the Israelis had captured or destroyed so much Russian equipment supplied to Egypt and Syria that the Soviet Union was reluctant to supply any more, and told them that it would be simpler and cheaper just to give it to their enemies? Maybe the Americans should hand it directly to the rebels!

MRW

Everyone congressman should read that article. I called mine to say, "Don't show up for that speech."

LeaNder

interesting scenario. Do I get this correctly, the regulations in Brussels may not quite fit, but of course one simply has to knock on the right doors in Bruxelles (?and Strasbourg?) and they will be made to fit?

That's real expert advise.

"Soros told Kiev to sidestep the IMF terms and conditions. He is proposing to raise “the large unused borrowing capacity of the EU itself and find other unorthodox sources to be able to offer Ukraine a larger financial package than the one currently contemplated.” Soros counts $64.3 billion of unused EU funds available for the Ukrainians to spend. “[They] are currently limited to EU member states but could be used to support Ukraine by modifying their respective regulations by a qualified majority upon a proposal by the European Commission.” An IMF rubber-stamp should be preserved, according to the Soros plan: “[the Fund] would remain in charge of actual disbursements, so there would be no loss of control.”

Soros has also proposed avoiding a bond default by asking the mostly American bondholders to accept a stretch-out of their paper maturities in exchange for higher interest rates and larger coupon payments to be covered by the extra cash he thinks the EU should stump up.

Instead of defaulting on the $3 billion bond the Ukraine owes for repayment to Russia this year, Soros says the Kremlin should be given an ultimatum – either accept rescheduling, or if not, the bond contract should be repudiated. “Russia may be willing to reschedule the payments by Ukraine on the bond voluntarily in order to earn favorable points for an eventual relaxation of the sanctions against it. Alternatively, the bond may be classified as government-to-government debt, restructured by the group of nations officially called the Paris Club, in order to insulate the rest of Ukrainian bonds from their cross-default provisions.”

OK the EU pays, the IMF controls so American bondholders are sure they will be satisfied?

How easy it all is. Looks good doesn't it?

FB Ali

Col Lang,

"I, too, now have doubts about Dempsey"

Yes, there appear to be too many things one has to ignore to cling to the old rosy-hued view. A great shame! He was about the only one on whom one could pin one's hopes. There seems to be no one left.

FB Ali

David,

Is it just thick-headed blundering? It seems there is some intent behind all this. There have always been those who wanted such an outcome.

FB Ali

Charles I,

Merkel's actions in the Ukraine imbroglio have puzzled me from the beginning. Failing any other reasonable explanation, I even thought they might be due to US blackmail!

I've recently come across an explanation that might perhaps be the right one; it would certainly explain her actions. Gilbert Doctorow thinks she might be pursuing a MittelEuropa policy

(http://russia-insider.com/en/2015/01/26/2772).

Tyler

I like how Mascha Gedden is basically a modern day version of Hearst's "our man in Cuba".

A honoshonol Jew who has been quoted on record as saying the end goal of gay marriage is to destroy the institution of marriage. If she didnt exist she'd be called an anti-Semitic stereotype.

Castellio

I remember your previous comment, FB, and I read this article with interest. But really, after all the ground breaking work of Brandt...

The article is suggesting that the Germans learned nothing from the two world wars of the 20th century, and are keen to recreate the conditions for the third, both in terms of will to dominate and cultural Russophobia.

True? Perhaps. Wise? Definitely not.

However, I would think the most cogent argument for Germany's actions remains that the German economy and most of its people have felt protected by the US umbrella, and wish to remain there.

The US is pushing a polarization and Merkel has made her choice. I doubt if she sees the need to rationalize it in other terms.

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