Sic Semper Tyrannis

Stephen Cohen makes sense. He always did...

"...  diplomats cautioned that stumbling blocks remain , including the highly charged issue of whether recent land gains made by separatists would be recognized as part of a cease-fire agreement. And there is skepticism that Moscow and the separatists would adhere to a deal . A previous accord reached in Minsk last September — which aimed to create a demilitarized zone and deliver more autonomy for the rebel-held lands — was routinely violated before largely breaking down in recent weeks."  Washpost

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Stephen Cohen was on GPS this Sunday.  He shared a panel on Zakariya's show with several "squirrels" who were quite infected with the delusion that the US rules the world as the manifestation of man's future perfection and destiny.  They asserted confidently that Russia must be pressured by the US and Europe until it submits to a brave new world order in which armies, air forces and navies are mere instruments of diplomacy used to push errant childlike states into line. The assertion was heard once again that spheres of influence are things long past in the 21st Century.

Cohen, with his usual perspicacity and determination refused to accept this baloney and pressed the "squirrels" to contemplate the size of Russia's nuclear capability and the risk of backing such a power into a corner from which it cannot escape except through lashing out at its tormentors or falling to its knees in submission.

The Germans and the French have wisely refused to participate in placing such pressure on Russia.  Merkel says that under no circumstances will Germany arm the Kiev government.  This must be a great cause for frustration for Victoria Nuland and other such people who think of international relations as a schoolyard game of domination among cliques.

Merkel is here in Washington now to try talk some sense into "Obama's Girls" as SWMBO calls Obama's clique.  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/joint-summit-on-ukraine-crisis-could-herald-breakthrough-on-peace-deal/2015/02/08/82df7f4e-af8f-11e4-854b-a38d13486ba1_story.html

Assad should NOT go.

One reason involves a pragmatic recognition of reality, in that Assad’s departure is simply beyond the ability of the United States or any player inside Syria to bring about any time soon (barring a full-scale U.S. military intervention, which would be folly for a host of other reasons). There are soft and brittle parts in this regime, but it would be useful to recall how many predictions of the regime’s demise since the Syrian war began have proven to be wrong.

A second reason is that in most conflicts it would be a prescription for failure, and/or for embarking on an incredibly costly enterprise, to take on simultaneously two different antagonists who are fighting against each other. Think about what World War II in Europe would be like if the United States had tried to take on Nazi Germany and the Stalinist USSR at the same time.  Pillar

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 "A third reason is that collapse of the current Syria regime under the pressure of war could easily mean the loss of the only structure separating Syria from anarchy that would be even worse than what exists there now. We should have learned some lessons in this regard from what happened in de-Baathicized Iraq and what is still happening today in Libya.

In recent months the Obama administration appears to have accepted an understanding of these realities and talks less than it did earlier about the ouster of Assad as a policy priority. Because of that, it has been criticized by some other governments in the region who have different priorities.

The United States needs to consider its own interests in setting its own priorities rather than bowing to the priorities of others. "  Pillar

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 Paul Pillar is right in all of that, but as we know well on SST, he is still swimming against the tide of deep inner yearnings of the Obamanites and the Ziocons who continue to have great influence in US foreign policy.   Their influence is so great that a forthright statement that America should look to its interests first will probably have a significant price tag for Pillar.

The tyranny of special interest domination of the media continues to dictate the narrative for the self serving ideologues and careerists who are powerful players in the big game.  That narrative requires absolute condemnation of the Syrian government and the continuous application of crude but effective propaganda techniques that reek of big money applied to US PR companies.

Among the most egregious features of the PR campaign is the theme that declares that the Syrian Government and Assad personally are responsible for the existence and rise of the jihadi factions (Nusra and IS).  The supposed logic in this claim insists that if Assad had resigned at the very beginning of the civil war in Syria, he would have been succeeded by an administration of enlightened Westernized liberals who would have presided over a secular Syria friendly to Israel.    

This is an interesting argument.  One of the things it demonstrates is the inability of the Ziocons and the Obamanites to learn from experience.  Egypt, Iraq, Libya, these are  all examples of Arab states that failed when "summoned" to exactly the same kind of unrealistic projects of transformation. Tunisia is an exception so far but the balance now existing has been very difficult to reach.  How long will the Tunisian success last?

Are heads of state and government to be condemned for not surrendering to rebels and foreign enemies?  Such surrenders might prevent death and destruction. Should Lincoln have accepted Southern secession?  Should FDR have accepted the Japanese attack in Hawaii and sought peace with the attackers?  Should the French government have accepted the German invasion in WW I?

Any and all  of these "policy  decisions" would have saved life and property?  pl  

https://consortiumnews.com/2015/02/05/why-syrias-assad-must-not-go-yet/ 

"Moments in History" on The Athenaeum

   

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2015/02/httpwwwliveleakcomll_embedfd6d9d5385aee.html

pl

"The Rise of Yemen’s Houthis" by Michael Horton

 "Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi has emphasized that the Houthis do not want to rule Yemen. Given the moves on the ground this may be somewhat disingenuous, but Abdul Malik al-Houthi is an astute strategist who realizes that officially taking up the reins of power in Sana’a could well be ruinous for the Houthis. While the Houthis have broadened their power base to include many Sunni tribal leaders and politicians, both in the north and the south, they are still viewed by most Yemenis as a Shi’a organization. A Houthi led government would be viewed as a return to the Zaidi dominated imamate that ruled north Yemen up until the 1962 revolution, and, as such, it would be deeply unpopular with the majority of Yemeni who are Sunni. While senior Houthi leadership undoubtedly recognizes the dangers of officially leading some kind of future government, Hadi’s resignation and the power vacuum in the nation’s capital may leave the Houthis with no choice."  Horton in Counterpunch

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I knew their fathers or perhaps now their grandfathers well.   Spectacularly gifted in field craft, endowed with a wry, dry sense of humor and fiercely independent among the clans and against whatever government might be, these perpetually armed little hill men make good friends but bad enemies.

They fought the internationally sponsored Sunni based government?  For me there was never any doubt that they would do anything else.  They fought the Egyptian Army for five years in the early sixties when Nasser sought to dictate the course of events in Yemen.  There is a large and well "stocked" Egyptian military cemetery in Sanaa.  The mountain road from Sanaa to Hodeidah on the Red Sea coast is marked every few miles with the carcasses of Egyptian armored vehicles where desperate men from Cairo and the Nile Delta fought to save themselves from Zeidi Shia tribal ambushes.  They still sang of these battles when I lived in Yemen.

 Now they have deposed the government.  IMO there should never have been a unified Yemen government.  The Yemen Arab Republic (YAR, i.e., north Yemen) was and is a distinctly different and authentically Arab country and it should have stayed that way, separate from the former British domain centered on what had been the Crown Colony of Aden and then the British attempt to create the Federation of South Arabia, a "country" that had territory extending to the east from Aden to Oman and filled with a wondrous mosaic of petty sheikdoms, emirates, sultanates and the like.  Just about everyone in that swath of land along the Arabian Sea was Sunni.  The British had sent many people from Aden to England to study, many at the London School of Economics and just about all of them returned transformed into communists and filled with contempt for the Zeidi tribesmen of the north.

For some reason hidden in their psyches all Yemenis, north and south yearned for unity, for creation of a country that had never existed and after the fall of the Soviet sponsors of the Peoples Democratic Republic of Yemen (PDRY - south Yemen) unification was achieved.  A Walloon once asked me what I thought of Belgium.  I replied that it had been an idea.  "Yes," he said, "but a bad idea." This was similar.

The Houthi descendants of my old acquaintances are not servants of Iran.  They are not dangerous to Western interests.  They are dangerous to AQAP.  Get it?  Salih will return.  pl 

http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/02/03/the-rise-of-yemens-houthis/

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/yemen-houthi-rebels-coup-sanaa-dissolve-parliament-form-transitional-council/

Sunset Clause ALL the AUMFs

 "A sunset clause precommits Congress and the President to revisit the nature and scope of the very diffuse war against Islamic terrorists on a regular basis.  It pressures the President on a regular basis to explain the nature of the conflict and the reasons why it must continue (and how), and it pressures Congress to exercise its constitutional and democratic responsibilities to deliberate about and vote on (or at least face) the issue.  A sunset clause poses risks.  The President could argue after three years that he can continue to fight the Islamic State under Article II without Congress’s imprimatur.  But while this argument might be available, it is more of a legal stretch, and certainly politically riskier, for the president to justify the entire conflict on the basis of Article II than it is for him to use Article II to extend the war a bit beyond what Congress authorized (either geographically or in terms of ground troops).  There is also the danger that Congress will not renew the authorization, or not renew it to the President’s liking, thus forcing the President into an awkward Article II posture or into narrowing the conflict further than he would like.  I doubt any of these outcomes will occur, as it should not be hard for the next President to make the case for renewing authorizations for war if such authorizations are plausibly warranted.  But in any event, as a nation we should not shy away from these possible consequences of democratic deliberation on a vital question like war.

In short, a sunset clause is the one provision that a Congress seeking to reassert its constitutional prerogatives should insist on in a new AUMF."  Goldsmith in Lawfare

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 The great danger that we face in the US is that of an unending war against any or all forces that a president can describe as being of hostile intent and capable of carrying out kinetic attacks on the US or powers friendly to the US.

The AUMFs have become the functional equivalents of declarations of war.  Under their authority the president and commander in chief can wage war with little restriction on his Second Amendment powers as Commander in Chief of the armed forces.

Unless these powers are limited in some meaningful way we are watching a transformation from Republic to Principate.  pl  

http://www.lawfareblog.com/2015/02/why-a-sunset-clause-is-important-in-any-new-aumf/

Mars or bust!

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/the_athenaeum/2015/02/mars-or-bust.html

pl

Syrian casualties are evenly divided.

 "Al Jazeera journalist Nir Rosen reported that many of the deaths reported daily by activists are in fact armed insurgents falsely presented as civilian deaths, but confirmed that real civilian deaths do occur on a regular basis.^[20] A number of Middle East political analysts, including those from the Lebanese Al Akhbar newspaper, have also urged caution.^[21][22][23]

This was later confirmed when in late May 2012, Rami Abdulrahman of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is one of the opposition-affiliated groups counting the number of those killed in the uprising, stated that civilians who had taken up arms during the conflict were being counted under the category of "civilians"."  Wiki on casualties

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 Government forces[edit]

Pro-government combatants	Casualties
Syrian military and police	52,290–79,874 killed[3][4][29]
Shabiha and National Defense Force	29,495–43,495 killed[3][4][29]
Lebanese Hezbollah	628 killed[3][4]
Non-Hezbollah foreign fighters	2,453 killed[3][4]

 

Anti-government combatants	Casualties
Syrians	61,809–92,809 killed[3][4][29]
Foreign fighters	23,892 killed[3][4]
Kurdish YPG	956–1,125 killed[50]

 wiki on casualties

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"The United Nations stated that by the end of April 2014, 8,803 children had been killed,^[5] while the Oxford Research Group said that a total of 11,420 children died in the conflict by late November 2013.^[12] By the end of December 2014, the opposition activist group Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported the number of children killed in the conflict had risen to 10,515, while at the same time 6,682 women were also killed."  wiki on casualties

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 For the sake of discussion let us take SOHR's numbers with regard to child and woman fatalities as fact.  This is a generous assumption since SOHR is a rebel propaganda organization.  One can take it for granted that SOHR's numbers will reflect the high end of numbers unfavorable to the Syrian government.  On that basis we can believe that by 1 January, 2015, 10,515 children and 6,682 women totaling 17,197 had been killed in the war by someone, someone.   None of the statistics that I have seen indicate who killed these people and how many were killed by which side.

The data that I have found here indicates that on the low side 84,866 fighters have been killed on the government side and that 86, 657 fighters have been killed on the anti-government side.

These numbers can only be regarded as approximations because as Nir Rosen writes above many of the deaths of armed insurgents are "counted" as those of civilians.  Well, pilgrims, a civilian who is armed and participating in the fighting is not a "civilian."

This morning General (ret.) Barry McCaffery was on "Morning Joe"  where he labeled Bashar Assad as the killer of 200,000 Syrians.  Is it McCaffery's belief that the Syrian Arab Government killed 84,866 fighters who were government forces or allies?

The whole public discourse with regard to the civil war in Syria is dominated by such propaganda nonsense.   What is McCaffery's motivation for mouthing such an untruth?  What?  pl 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Syrian_Civil_War

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syrian_Civil_War#Deaths

 

"Convicting Sterling to Chill Whistleblowing" Norman Solomon

"Prosecutors defamed Sterling’s character in opening and closing arguments, but few CIA witnesses had anything bad to say about him. The notable exception, CIA official David Cohen — who ran the agency’s New York office when Sterling worked there — testified that “his performance was extremely sub-par.”

Cohen’s affect on the stand gave new meaning to the term hostile witness. He exuded major antipathy toward Sterling, who had been one of the CIA’s few American-American case officers. Sterling filed a racial bias lawsuit before the agency fired him.

“In the wake of 9/11, Cohen moved from the CIA to the NYPD,” Marcy Wheeler wrote. “In 2002, he got a federal court to relax the Handschu guidelines, which had been set up in 1985 in response to NYPD’s targeting of people for their political speech. … After getting the rules relaxed, Cohen created teams of informants that infiltrated mosques and had officers catalog Muslim-owned restaurants, shops, and even schools.”"  Solomon

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It was an amazing spectacle.  Jury selection was the most unimpressive phenomenon of all.  In spite of there having been a lot of people of color in the prospective jury pool, the final jury was altogether white and most were women.  pl

https://consortiumnews.com/2015/02/04/convicting-sterling-to-chill-whistleblowing/

The Head of al Azhar Issues a Condemnation of ISIL's Execution of Lt. al Kasaesbeh

*

Adam L. Silverman

Reuters is reporting that Ahmed al Tayeb, the Grand Sheik of al Azhar University has not only condemned ISIL's burning of Lt. al Kasaesbeh, but has stated that "such a form of killing, is abhorrent under Islam, no matter the justification". In fact Sheikh al Tayeb went so far as to state that those who committed such acts deserved to be: "killed, crucified or to have their limbs amputated.

Al Azhar is the oldest, continuously operating Sunni Muslim school of higher education. It will be interesting to see exactly what, if any, effect Sheikh Tayeb's stance has. Reuters' report also includes reaction from senior Sunni clerical authorities in other parts of the Muslim world, both Arab and non-Arab. Click over to read the whole report.

* al Azhar Crest was found here: http://www.cicot.or.th/2009/images/stories/200px-Al-Azhar_University_logo_svg_png%20(PNG%20Image,%20200x287%20pixels)_1268135062853.jpg

Let's treat Kasaesbeh's death as an opportunity...

 
Lieutenant Kasaesbeh death was a terrible thing.  IS went to a lot of trouble to stage manage his "trial" and murder.  we should not let the production values of the video obscure the simple truth that IS and its medieval fanatics are the enemies of right thinking people pf all nationalities and faiths.  I do not agree that their fortunes are trending downward.  If left to fester across the world they will make more and more trouble and commit more unspeakable crimes everywhere they can reach.

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McCain was on the tube today with his usual nonsensical statements concerning the "need" to crush the Syrian government in response to IS executions of prisoners.  Perhaps he has missed the fact that it is IS who has executed these prisoners and not the Syrian government. It seems that this is an obsession that he and his office wife will die with.  The neocons and their foreign friends have a lot to answer for in this particular craziness of American policy.

IMO, there should now be formed a coalition of anti-IS and Nusra that consists of anyone who will fight the jihadis.  I mean really fight, not just talk about forming an "army" of Syrian unicorns who might or might not ever amount to anything.

Jordan, The US, Britain, France, the Syrian government, Hizbullah in Syria, the "nine brigade new Iraqi army," Iran, Pesh Merga, the other Kurds, (the ones the Turks hate so much) the UAE air force, cats and dogs (you name it).  I would become a co-belligerent with anyone who will fight the jihadis,  Anyone!

I do not mention Saudi Arabia, or Kuwait because IMO they lack "the right stuff."  I do not mention Egypt because IMO their military has little combat value.  They are really asphalt soldiers.

Jordan's forces are quite small in this time long after the treaty with Israel.  They will need a lot of help logistically, but IMO the US will have to accept that there will must be a conventional US ground component in the fight.  If there is not, then this war will last a long, long time.  There is a sizable US force in Kuwait.  They can be moved NW on the Tapline Road to Azraq Air base in Jordan.  More troops can be air transported to that base.  A supply line can be opened through the port of Aqaba.

Let us get on with it.  pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/04/us-mideast-crisis-killing-idUSKBN0L71XE20150204

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Jordanian_Army#Current_Command_Structure

"Inside The Army’s Spectacular Hidden Treasure Room" Buzz Feed

http://www.buzzfeed.com/bennyjohnson/inside-the-armys-spectacular-hidden-treasure-room

 

pl

Jordan will exact a high price...

""The revenge will be as big as the calamity that has hit Jordan," army spokesman Colonel Mamdouh al Ameri said in a televised statement confirming the death of the pilot, who was captured in December when his plane crashed over Syria. 

A government spokesman said in a statement that Jordan would deliver a "strong, earth-shaking and decisive" response. 

The fate of Kasaesbeh, a member of a large tribe that forms the backbone of support for the Hashemite monarchy, has gripped Jordan for weeks and provoked rare protests against King Abdullah over the government's handling of the crisis. 

The king cut short a visit to the United States to return home."  pl

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 Well, pilgrims, these fellows are really something.  I told Japanese TV a while back that I thought he might already be dead but I did not expect this.  It is an unusual but not unknown punishment under some concepts of Islamic law.  This is usually reserved for those who try to proselytize Muslims or whose actions severely endanger the Islamic State ('ummah). 

He was probably a Beni Sakhr beduin.  This action by IS will consolidate tribal support for King Abdullah.  Indeed. IMO it will consolidate opposition to IS across the Islamic World.  It is sad that some good will come of this.

These IS crazies remind me of the Reiver characters in the SciFi TV series  "Firefly."  Those madmen had been driven insane by experimental government behavior changing drugs.  These madmen are driven insane by the drug of their form of religion.

Tell me again what the argument is for not cooperating with the Syrian Arab Government in destroying this pestilence.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/03/us-mideast-crisis-killing-idUSKBN0L71XE20150203

"U.S. Considers Supplying Arms to Ukraine Forces, Officials Say" - TTG

WASHINGTON — With Russian-backed separatists pressing their attacks in Ukraine, NATO’s military commander, Gen. Philip M. Breedlove, now supports providing defensive weapons and equipment to Kiev’s beleaguered forces, and an array of administration and military officials appear to be edging toward that position, American officials said Sunday.

President Obama has made no decisions on providing such lethal assistance. But after a series of striking reversals that Ukraine’s forces have suffered in recent weeks, the Obama administration is taking a fresh look at the question of military aid. Secretary of State John Kerry, who plans to visit Kiev on Thursday, is open to new discussions about providing lethal assistance, as is Gen. Martin E. Dempsey, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, officials said. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, who is leaving his post soon, backs sending defensive weapons to the Ukrainian forces. In recent months, Susan E. Rice, Mr. Obama’s national security adviser, has resisted proposals to provide lethal assistance, several officials said. But one official who is familiar with her views insisted that Ms. Rice was now prepared to reconsider the issue.  (NY Times)

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Shaved apes! My old mentor, MSG Albert H. Rivers, told me all these politicians and generals could easily be replaced by shaved apes. Take a few grey rock apes out of the zoo, shave 'em and put 'em in suits. You'd never know the difference.

The NYT reporters leave the impression that, according to anonymous officials, all the government officials and military leaders mentioned are leaning towards providing arms to the Kiev junta. Breedlove, Kerry and Rice - yeah, I can see it. But General Dempsey? Say it ain't so!  An NBC article suggests the Pentagon is not that keen on the idea. "The Pentagon is reviewing the question "cautiously," one official said. There is concern that providing heavy weapons to Ukraine would only escalate the fighting and increase instability. For that reason, "As of now no one here is pounding the table to provide heavy weapons," the official said." I hope the Pentagon retains its caution and well founded misgivings.

There are no shortage of shaved apes cheerleading for jumping into the war in Ukraine with both feet.  Several "think tanks" just put out a paper entitled "Preserving Ukraine's Independence, Resisting Russian Aggression: What the United States and NATO Must Do." Good Lord, the title alone conjures up images of a troop of howler monkeys flinging their poop from the tree branches. Among the points made in this report is that one of the rebel advantages is air superiority since they "have denied Ukrainian forces the ability to attack, collect intelligence, maneuver and resupply their forces in Ukraine's sovereign airspace." The report calls for equipping the Ukrainians with counter battery radars and medium range/medium altitude UAVs and armored humvees.  The Ukies already have counter battery radars and UAVs. I seriously doubt armored humvees are up to the muddy steppes.

The Ukies may have already received heavy weapons from NATO countries. I'm not talking about the small arms and artillery ammo. This video suggests they are using M-109 Paladin SP artillery systems. When did they come from? No matter. The Ukie forces are close to moral collapse. Their leadership is inferior at all levels. The conscripts are beginning to desert and cross over to the rebel side. Regular Ukrainian army units are fighting the Svoboda and Pravy Sektor filled national guard units. The Aidar Battalion is in Kiev calling for Poroshenko's head. All the humvees in the world aren't going to fix that.

Our best bet is to suck it up. Accept that Sevastopol will never become NATO's Subic Bay on the Black Sea. Don't listen to the shaved apes and walk away from World War III.

TTG 

"Christian Idiots" by Richard Sale

I am not familiar with Christians United for Israel, but I am not in the least surprised by the zealous fervor of groups like it.  

In late 1980s and early ‘90s, I was told by senior CIA officials, that for many years, American “national grassroots movements focused on building support of Israel” had been secretly funded by Mossad, whose purpose is to reinforce the strain of Christian fundamentalism in America, a group that displays no knowledge of the Bible and who thinks that the earth is only 6,000 years old. Such groups are now building big churches that teach Creationism, apparently taking great pride in being absurd. 

Mossad used to fund pilgrimages trips to Israel and other events, these officials said.

Has that funding stopped?

Probably. A keen-eyed observer commented, “Certainly Israel (Mossad?) funds hundreds (thousands?) of trips to Israel each year. But I wonder how covert Israel needs to be in funding Zionist Christians?  They've got lots of money and lots of natural fervor, and, though they may not really like Jews, they have deep ideological commitment to the return of all Jews to Israel. (Of course something like two thirds of all Jews will be killed upon the apocalypse, and the remaining converted to Christianity.”

On its web site, CUFI proclaims,

“There is a new Hitler in the Middle East—President Ahmadinejad of Iran—If we learned anything from the Holocaust, it is that when a madman threatens genocide we must take him seriously.^[“

At a CUFI gathering in Washington, John Hagee, the head pastor, said, "President Obama is not pro-Israel."

And on the question of an undivided Jerusalem, Hagee said, "Turning part or all of Jerusalem over to the Palestinians would be tantamount to turning it over to the Taliban.”

Hagee also denounced climate change as a fraud, plus he opposes abortion, gays, etc.

Such views dumbfound us or make us gape and scratch our heads at the very least. CUFI seems to be in the forefront of every backward movement.

American Religious Right

One wonders if the Christian Right has spent much time reading the Bible. Are they aware that are two accounts of creation in Genesis or that there are two accounts of Saul being made king?  David is twice introduced to Saul. There are two accounts of David having spared Saul’s life. We also read that Goliath was killed by David, yet in another account names Elhanan is the giant’s killer.  Clearly there are two different writers at work writers with different intonations, phraseology, methods, styles, talents, and differing sets of facts and legends brought to coherent meaning by marvelous skill. 

It is somewhat suspicious to current scholars that the pharaoh that oppressed the Hebrews is not ever named in the Old Testament. Many scholars used to think that it was Ramses the II who died about 1225 BCE. It has become the habit to date Exodus about 125- BCE. Moses is credited with writing Exodus, Numbers, Deuteronomy, but doubts arise. We read about the death of  Moses, and clearly he wasn’t able to write about his own demise. So someone else was writing his biography. 

The “Pro-Iranian Faction” on Gary Sick’s site. 

I am a bit put out by remarks on Sick's site about the pro-Iranian faction on Gary’s site.

The word “faction” seems to denote something conspiratorial. 

Who belongs to “the pro-Iranian faction on GGS 2?” What is it? The phrase sounds full of shadowy menace… “The sneaking pro-Iranian, faction whispered last night...”  Orrin sees the pro-Iranian faction as misguided, faintly corrupt, intellectually misinformed, a renegade faction that has closed its mind to the truth. Apparently, this group cannot reason coherently or uprightly. It suffers from the defect of a disfiguring bias.

I do not belong to any faction. “I like to be first and alone on any road I travel,” said a great American poet. Having sympathies is personal, not communitarian. Unfortunately groups are always home to mediocrity so one avoids them. If my personal opinions happen to coincide with others, it is not a conspiracy. It makes for the pleasure of agreement, that happy surprise that occurs when we find another who thinks a bit like ourselves.  That agreement does not make a faction either.

In any case, what does the “bias” consist of? Is it an inclination, propensity for, a predilection, a leaning whose goal is to promote what is untrue about Iran? In my case, I am a patriotic American who deeply loves my own severely flawed country, and who simply wants justice to be done to the Iranian people. We ordinary Americans, what do we gain by loving Iran and admiring its people? We gain a great deal – knowledge of the Persian Empire, the conquest of Persia by Alexander, knowledge of the wars of the Greeks and Persians, and most valuable of all, we get to know the great Persian poets and Persian epics. Is their any poet more delightful than Sadiq?

We want to obtain a measure of justice for the people of Iran, that desire in no way supports or sympathizes with the country’s oppressive regime.

With greetings to all, and wishing everyone a wonderful, spiritually enriching New Year. 

Richard Sale

"Is U.S. coalition winning war vs. ISIS?" CNN

"... ISIS's influence keeps growing around the Muslim world. In the past six months, ISIS has drawn into its fold some dozen militant groups from Algeria to Pakistan.

These affiliates aren't wasting any time in carrying out attacks in the name of ISIS. On January 27, gunmen claiming to be affiliated with ISIS attacked the Corinthia Hotel in Tripoli, Libya, which is favored by government officials and foreigners. They killed 10 people after storming into the lobby and firing guns at hotel guests. Five of the victims were foreigners, one an American.

Two days later, at least 32 people were killed in a series of attacks on soldiers and police in Sinai in eastern Egypt. The terrorist group known as the Province of Sinai has claimed responsibility for the attacks and had pledged allegiance to ISIS in November.

ISIS has recently claimed even more recruits, as it moved into new territory in Yemen, competing there with al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP).

A Yemeni official who spoke to CNN in January said that the AQAP cadre still significantly outnumbers those in ISIS, but the move into Yemen is significant for the group as it a country where al Qaeda has maintained a presence for more than a decade."  CNN

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CENTCOM believes that it is winning a war of attrition against IS, but the authors of this piece point to the continuing flow of recruits going to "the caliphate" to seek martyrdom.  IMO CENTCOM has no real ability to estimate the casualties they are inflicting on IS.  They are probably guessing  based on pilot reports of the damage done.  Well, pilgrims, I've been there and done that...  Pilots always pad their BDA reports.  It is in their DNA to do so.  I remember what one unit commander told me when I challenged him on this phenomenon.  "The guys have to feel they are doing something worthwhile."  OK, but that general tendency leads to unreliable data.

And then there is the continuing spread of IS outside the Syria/Iraq area.  The IS leadership calls this "annexation" of bits and pieces of jihadiland. 

Bergen doubts that the Kurds and the nine brigade new Iraqi army can re-take Mosul this year?

So do I.  pl

http://www.cnn.com/2015/02/01/opinion/bergen-state-of-isis/

"Menendez blames everyone but himself ... " Mulshine

 "But how could he have known the effort to depose Assad would go so horribly wrong and lead to the rise of ISIS?

Uh, by reading my columns. When it comes to foreign policy, I seek out the people who understand the Mideast. See my prior columns warning of the folly of  "liberating" our enemies here. These are not politicians. I've yet to meet one who had even the vaguest notion of who's fighting whom in that neck of the woods.

Instead I seek out ex-CIA agents like Bob Baer or ex-Green Berets like Pat Lang.  These guys saw this fiasco coming from the very beginning."  Mulshine

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Interesting.  pl  

http://www.nj.com/opinion/index.ssf/2015/01/menendez_blames_everyone_but_himself_for_the_mess.html

Open Thread for Super Bowl day.

  pl