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16 February 2015

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bth

Would this be a bad thing?

turcopolier

bth

It would be just fine for me. The question is whether the Egyptian could do it successfully. I doubt it. pl

Babak Makkinejad

Even if they could, who will pay them to occupy Libya and administer it for 2 or 3 decades?

The Beaver

France will find a way ( with the help of some of the GCC countries)

BabelFish

Not quite on topic but I can't help but notice that the F-16 is having quite a heyday in all this. For an airplane the Air Force didn't want and Gen. Buster Glosson was dismissive about, it has become ubiquitous in the images of air strikes being launched by Jordan, Egypt, etc. That will be a bar for the F-35 crowd to measure themselves against.

FB Ali

They could take a few cities (Benghazi etc), but will then be bogged down in an unending guerrilla war. Ultimately, they'll have to pull out with their tail between their legs.

If Sisi has any sense he'll stick to these air raids - until a plane crashes and the bailed-out pilot is beheaded on camera!

João Carlos

"Will Egypt seek to occupy Egypt [...]? "

Wait, I am sure that Egypt occupy Egypt now since they are not more an english protectorate, maybe you wanted to say Egypt seek to occupy Libya.

If they can or not to occupy make is not important, the things are going be interesting, like the Chinese old say: "can you live interesting times"...

turcopolier

Joao Carlos

"...they are not more an english protectorate." You are fifty years out of date. pl

John Minnerath

All
Would they even want to? Harsh retribution and lasting damage to the threat next door might be all the Egyptians plan.
ISIS might be on a roll, but as more Arab nations suffering their atrocities drop the hammer on them that'll lessen.

r whitman

Libyan oil is very high quality, easily refined, in great demand and located very close to southern European refineries. I can see the Egyptians using this to pay for occupation and administration.

Charles I

Revenge is cheap and popular, clear and hold a nightmare of diminishing returns and will.

Swami Bhut Jolokia

The Beaver: And the deep pockets of the USA, of course.

Swami Bhut Jolokia

PL, I think he was pointing out the typo in the second paragraph of your comment. Should read "...Will Egypt seek to occupy Libya..."

In any event, a little war with a neighbor can often help boost patriotism and marginalize dissenters, and perpetuate an authoritarian regime.

Not that I'm suggesting Sisi would ever be so cynical, of course.

Medicine Man

That game plan sounds terribly familiar.

Babak Makkinejad

So, Egyptians become colonial masters of Libya?

Rather doubtful; 44 tribes in Libya and 14 of them are of account - unless the Egyptians can be as brutal as Italians under Il Duce, I do not think this will come to pass.

The Beaver

Sarko's reason to get the UK ( was already in) and the US involved in the first place ( Qatar was the influencer and KSA didn't peep because the Late Abdullah and Gaddhafi didn't see eye to eye).

Total S.A. was butting heads with one of the sons ( the greasing of his hands was not enough)

Laguerre

I'd be very surprised if Egypt entered Libya, other than air-raids. That would be problems Egypt can't cope with.

Poul

Is there an element of strategy in these beheadings?

http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2015/02/16/employment-status-egyptians-returning-libya-unclear/

Scaring off thousands of Egyptians workers should put extra pressure on the Egyptian economy. Less money being sent home.

A poor economy has always made a government less popular.

João Carlos

Sadly, satire is a dead art. Yes, I was pointing a mistake at the text, not at the title. And using some irony because Socrates lives between the clouds... well, it is all greek to me (or greek plays), including the greeks starting the end of EU.

I am sure we will live interesting times, something like the two
Great Wars, when the old Empire dies and the new Empire takes its place. If they add a pandemic (ebola?) it will be like the Hundred Years War.

The bad thing about Chinese curses is that they are very bad to the cursed ones, that are we westerners if you think about it.

William R. Cumming

IMO Egypt should occupy Libya!

The Beaver

All

Interesting article in the New Yorker:

http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/02/23/unravelling

Edifying paragraph on the $--t disturber pseudo-philosopher BHL.

Wonder if he has ever worn his uniform for the French Military service or he went overseas as a cooperant instead.

russ

Something on the order of the 1977 Egyptian incursion into Libya should still be possible. Perhaps even easier today now that there is no Libyan government or regular army.
Russ

Charles I

You need to read this complete article that someone here, can't recall who, kindly linked to, if you did not already.

http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

The beheadings are in complete accord with the Koran, 7th century warfare and the drive for the apocalyptic Battle of Dabiq at which Jesus shall return to help a small band of true Muslims defeat the apostate invader armies.

They are also in accord with precepts of war and politics calling for shock and awe as a cowering potential and surefire way to wrest civic control, end local hostilities and reduce the overall death count a less resolute tactic may have lead to over a longer period of warfare, and as such a Mercy from Allah.

Think saving lives by dropping nuclear bombs.

Charles I

"no regular army" is the problem, look how well Bremer's folly worked out in Iraq.

John Minnerath

Islamic State militants 'burn to death 45 in Iraq'

How much further will they go?

russ

Charles,
An incursion is not an occupation. A regular army might be capable of mounting some sort if defense against a major Egyptian attack as the Libyan army tried to do in 1977. ISIS not so much. A punitive Egyptian ground operation would be hard to resist effectively. A prolonged occupation is another matter
russ

Charles I

My point is that punishment absent subjugation or reformation is not working.

Trillium

All,

Any thoughts on the claim that ISIL plans flood Lybia with men to send onward as "migrants" to operate in Europe? If there is something to it, how should the West mitigate the threat?

Would it be feasible to work through the tribal networks to combat it (though I'm not sure why tribal leaders would trust the West)? Or would it be more practical to try and make migration from Lybia to Europe more difficult?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11418966/Islamic-State-planning-to-use-Libya-as-gateway-to-Europe.html

Charles I

Read this and you'll find that apparently they wish to go all the way to Armageddon, and why they perpetrate the acts they do..

http://www.theatlantic.com/features/archive/2015/02/what-isis-really-wants/384980/

Poul

I would look at the French example from the Ivorian Crisis in 2010-11.

Here the French helped defeat the Presidential Guard of Laurent Gbagbo, a task the Muslim militia of Alassane Ouattara were not up to. However the militia could keep the peace once the guard was out of the way. So overall a successful intervention.

The Egyptians could try something similar. Help defeat the Salafist forces in Eastern Libya and then pull out. The Tobruk government should have enough loyal forces to enforce a peace.

What you want to avoid is the French results in Mali where they are still suck due to a lack of local forces strong enough to take over.

William R. Cumming

Wikipedia extract:

Libya (Arabic: ‏ Lībyā; Berber: Libya, ⵍⵉⴱⵢⴰ), officially the State of Libya, is a country in the Maghreb region of North Africa bordered by the Mediterranean Sea to the north, Egypt to the east, Sudan to the southeast, Chad and Niger to the south, and Algeria and Tunisia to the west. The three traditional parts of the country are Tripolitania, Fezzan and Cyrenaica. With an area of almost 1.8 million square kilometres (700,000 sq mi), Libya is the fourth largest country in Africa, and is the 17th largest country in the world. Libya has the 10th-largest proven oil reserves of any country in the world.

The largest city and capital, Tripoli, is located in western Libya and contains over one million of Libya's six million people. The other large city is Benghazi, which is located in eastern Libya.

Libya has been inhabited by Berbers since the late Bronze Age. The Phoenicians established trading posts in western Libya, and Ancient Greek colonists established city-states in eastern Libya. Libya was variously ruled by Persians, Egyptians and Greek-Egyptians before becoming a part of the Roman Empire. Libya was an early center of Christianity. During the 7th Century, invasions brought Islam and Arab colonization. In the sixteenth century, the Spanish Empire and the Knights of St John occupied Tripoli, until Ottoman rule began in 1551. Libya was involved in the Barbary Wars of the 18th and 19th centuries. Ottoman rule continued until the twentieth-century Italian occupation of Libya and large-scale Italian immigration. Italian rule ended during the Second World War, during which Libya was an important area of warfare. The Italian population then went into decline. Libya became an independent kingdom in 1951. In 1969, a military coup overthrew King Idris I, beginning a period of improved living standards and brutal suppression of dissent. Within a year, the 20,000 remaining Italians and 37,000 Jews had been expelled. The most prominent coup conspirator, Muammar Gaddafi, was ultimately able to fully concentrate power in his own hands during the Libyan Cultural Revolution.

Muammar Gaddafi remained in power until the Libyan Revolution of 2011 overthrew his regime. Protests in Benghazi on 15 February 2011 led to clashes with security forces and ultimately escalated into an armed conflict. The United Nations Security Council authorized the use of force in United Nations Security Council Resolution 1973. The subsequent intervention by NATO and some Arab states ensured the fall of Gaddafi. Since then, Libya has experienced instability and political violence which has severely affected both commerce and oil production.

Libya is governed by two rival governments since August 2014, one in Tripoli and one in Tobruk. The Council of Deputies elected in the June 2014 elections was declared unconstitutional by the Libyan Supreme Court in November 2014, but it rejected the ruling and has continued to claim legitimacy. However, its control of the country is severely limited by the current civil war against an Islamist rival government, which has controlled Tripoli since August 2014. The rival government presents itself as a legal continuation of the General National Congress, which was elected in July 2012 and was set to dissolve following the June 2014 elections, but reconvened after Islamists rejected the results. This New General National Congress meets in Tripoli, while the Council of Deputies meets on a car ferry in Tobruk harbour.

William R. Cumming

ALL: IMO the UN Charter rests on the foundation of a nation-state system. Although clearly some UN members are not really nation states. So the primary purpose of the UN IMO is preservation of that nation-state system. So the UN needs to address both failed states and non-state actors both of which continue to undermine the nation state system.

There should be a UN adopted standard for defining a nation-state and address through conventions and other means what it expects of its members in policing non-members and failed members.

And of course two direct threats exist to the nation-state system. First the free flow and frauds involved with bytes and bits. Second the failure of border policing!

William R. Cumming

Charles I! Thanks for the link to the ATLANTIC. IMO a very useful article and should be mandatory reading for ALL!

russ

Charles,
Your point does not really apply to the point I was making. However, to address your point the Egyptians seem to have done rather well dealing with the Muslim Brotherhood at home and might if that is their goal have more success in dealing with ISIS in Libya than others have had elsewhere. I doubt they could or would try to absorb the whole country. It will be interesting to see how they handle Sinai which was already proving problematical before ISIS appeared on the scene.
russ

Charles I

I agree, it made a lot of sense to me and at the very least rendered outlandish current events somewhat more comprehensible. I must thank whatever member of the Committee posted the link to it last week somewhere.

Charles I

Do we have any hard facts on the "Tobruk government" - the will to power, discipline and resources available to it?

Charles I

absent some central powers with interest in national or territorial control and the monopolies on the use of heavy weapons to maintain order I do not see the situation changing.

russ

Charles,
Your latest post may be valid but again it does not address my point. Put simply Egypt has the capability to inflict pain on ISIS.
russ

William R. Cumming

IMO ISIS is an existential threat to a modern secular Egypt! Whatever Egyptian capability.

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