Send lawyers, guns and money... - TTG

Pro-Moscow rebels, backed by what NATO says is the open participation of Russian troops, pressed on with their offensive on Sunday after restarting the war in eastern Ukraine with the first all-out assault since a truce five months ago. 

U.S. President Barack Obama said Washington was considering all options short of military action to isolate Russia. The European Union called an emergency meeting of foreign ministers of its 28 member states. "We are deeply concerned about the latest break in the ceasefire and the aggression that these separatists -- with Russian backing, Russian equipment, Russian financing, Russian training and Russian troops -- are conducting," Obama told a news conference during a visit to India. "I will look at all additional options that are available to us short of military confrontation and try to address this issue. And we will be in close consultation with our international partners, particularly European partners." 

NATO accuses Moscow of sending troops to fight on behalf of rebels in territory the Kremlin has dubbed "New Russia" in a war that has killed more than 5,000 people. In some of the strongest language ever from Brussels, Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister who now presides over EU summits European Council president, denounced "appeasement" of Moscow, a word with unmistakable World War Two connotations. (Reuters)

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The Ukrainian army is essentially a ‘NATO legion’ which doesn’t pursue the national interests of Ukraine, but persists to restrict Russia, President Vladimir Putin says. “We often say: Ukrainian Army, Ukrainian Army. But who is really fighting there? There are, indeed, partially official units of armed forces, but largely there are the so-called ‘volunteer nationalist battalions’,” said Putin. He added that the intention of Ukrainian troops is connected with “achieving the geopolitical goals of restraining Russia.” Putin was addressing students in the city of St. Petersburg. According to Putin, the Ukrainian army “is not an army, but a foreign legion, in this case a foreign NATO legion, which, of course, doesn’t pursue the national interests of Ukraine.”

Kiev has been reluctant to find political solutions to the crisis in eastern Ukraine and only used the ceasefire to regroup its forces, the president stressed. “Unfortunately official Kiev authorities refuse to follow the path of a peaceful solution. They don’t want to resolve [the crisis] using political tools,” Putin said, adding that first Kiev authorities had first used law enforcement, then security services and then the army in the region. “It is essentially a civil war [in Ukraine]. In my view, many in Ukraine already understand this,” Putin added. (Russia Today)

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That pretty much sums up where the politicians stand now that last September's Minsk Protocol has collapsed so spectacularly. The Prime Minister of the Donetsk Peoples Republic (DNR), Alexandr Zakharchenko emphatically declared that there will be no more ceasefires. What's happening on the ground? It's difficult to know from day to day. Both sides push their own versions of reality. However, I think the photo at the top of this post sums up the current situation on the ground in Novorossiya. At center front, with his fist in the air is Matros, a company commander in the DNR Sparta Battalion. Behind him and two of his soldiers stand a number of Ukrainian prisoners, probably from the 93d Brigade, the “cyborgs” that held part of the airport since last summer. This picture was taken at the airport a few days ago after it was finally captured by the rebels. This video was probably made shortly after the above photo was taken. The words of Matros ring truer than those of any politician... "It's only the beginning."

Let's listen to words of some of the men at the heart of this battle to better understand  what's going on. In addition to Matros, hear the words of Motorola (Arseny Pavlov) and Givi (Mikail Tolstoy). Motorola is the 32 year old commander of the Sparta Battalion. He served in the Russian naval infantry in the 2nd Chechen War, but was a stone cutter before he joined the fighting last year. Givi commands the Somali Battalion. He served in the Ukrainian Army from 1998 to 2000 as a conscript tanker. After that he worked in a sling rope factory. Neither individual was a professional military man. They fought beside Strelkov at Slaviansk and were instrumental in closing and reducing the Iliovansk cauldron last August.

In this 16 January interview with Motorola, he describes how the Ukies launched an attack on his position at the airport and were repulsed before his battalion began the assault on the new terminal. 

In this 17 January interview Givi describes the airport battles, the importance of suppressive fires and acknowledges the strength of the Ukies and the difficulties of the battles ahead. On 18 January he describes how he repulsed a Ukie attack that attempted to outflank the airport. 

This is an interview with Givi and Matros in a more relaxed moment on 18 January.  Soldier talk. I miss it.

What does the future hold? For men like Givi, Motorola and Matros hard battles are ahead. Putin appears to be solidly behind the rebels military offensive since he is keepng the voentorg supplies flowing. This is more important than any political support at the moment. Perhaps most important is whatever training and advisory support Russia is providing. The polite men in green seem to be going a bang up job and they certainly know how to STFU. I have no proof of this, but my experience tells me it is so. I'm envious of their expertise and success. This clearly contrasts with whatever training and advisory program is in place for the Ukrainian Army. 

How far will Washington and the EU go to support the junta in Kiev? We had Standard and Poor cut Russia's credit rating to junk today. I seriously doubt this move will close the voentorg. If the rebels close and reduce a new cauldron at Debaltsteve, will the Ukrainian conscripts desert and/or defect en masse? Will Pravy Sektor and Svoboda overthrow the current junta in Kiev? Will the US and EU continue to support Kiev in that case? I have a feeling we'll have answers to these questions before General Mud arrives on the steppes of Ukraine.

TTG

 

Comments

[alba etie]

Tyler
I just don't see where any police dept should own a Bear Cat assault vehicle . I further totally support our two best girl friends getting hitched last year in New England - they have been a couple thirty plus years . Finally I particularly can't see supporting neo Nazi's in the Russian Near Abroad . We shall see , ..

[alba etie]

Babak Makkinejad ,
I agree , we have no true strategic interest in mucking around in Russia's Near Abroad.

[The Twisted Genius]

Tyler,

I hope things have reversed, too. Hard to believe things got so bad. Mortars were worshipped in the 25th Division back in the hollow Army days. The rifle company mortar sections had 3 81mm tubes, gamma goat carriers and organic forward observers. The FDC had 2 M-16 plotting boards. Our quarterly mortar qualifications were two days of intense live fire which were always of extreme interest to Division leadership. The goal was perfection and the competition was fierce. During our annual month on the "Big Island," we fired deuce and a half after deuce and a half of ammo.

During one company live fire, my section fired what essentially was a 20 minute FPF with illumination. We cooled the tubes by pouring water on them. We dwarfed the fire of a 105 battery and left the artillery battalion commander in awe. We ended up burning out one tube. The Division Commander said no report of survey will be done. That tube burnt out doing what it was supposed to be doing. He said it was well worth what he just witnessed. Those were good days.

[The Twisted Genius]

crf,

Beyond the symbolic importance of the airport, it was high ground overlooking Donetsk. The Ukies were directing fire on the neighborhoods from the control tower when it was standing. If the rebels do no more than push the Ukies back far enough to stop the shelling of the cities, it would be a huge success.

[Dubhaltach]

In reply to Fred 27 January 2015 at 12:10 PM

Agree completely.

Dubhaltach

[confusedponderer]

The shelling of the cities, i.e. the deliberate and persistent breach of the ceasefire by Ukie forces, is one of the consistently underreported facts about the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.

In Israel, anything Syrians must only look crosseyed at the Izzies and they retaliate against the Syrian army irrespective of the latters involvement or responsibility.

In Ukraine, the Ukies shell Donetzk and other cities daily for a couple months in violation of the ceasefire and when the Federalists do something about it, like by taking the airport to flush out Ukie artillery observers, it is sign of nothing else but Russian aggression and Putin's Russian imperialism.

Because the West is on the side of the angels.

If only they weren't pandering their righteous protection racket so much. But what a deal:

If you're with the US, you can breach ceasefires, kill civilians, perhaps shoot down airliners, lie as if there was no tomorrow (irrespective of plaussibility) and they will root for you anyway!

The US will veto for you, sanction your enemies, apologise for you, block criticism! You will get arms, training and equipment for free! As long only as you oppose Russia (or whatever else enemy de jour) and sumbit yourself to US policy everything goes!

Nazi? Schmazi! They are Ukrainian patriots now, even with swastika tattoos. They're just superstitious and want to improve your odds by wearing the Hindu symbol of auspiciousness!

They're not even Nazis even if they have a Glatze and call them damn moskals vermin that must be exterminated and make their folksy nightly torch marches with their yellow Wolfsangel flags.

Given the chance, they'd probably redefine Hannibal Lecter as a carnivore. As long as he only eats Russians ...

Thus is the US and western monopoly of interpreation.

With current US Ukraine policy statements, Orwell would have a field day.

That said, he'd have one with Russian statements also, but then, with them being the bad guys, they're supposedly supposed to lie, or are they?

[Piotr]

It's your own (American) right to do so, and nobody can stop you if you really want to isolate US from the rest of the world
But do you remember how such isolation finished last time?
Have you heard about S/S Lusitania and Pearl Harbour? (rhetoric question :-) )

It's always cheaper to destroy enemy ships during their building in shipyards, than fighting them on your country's waters,isn't it?
And the basical geopolitical idea for US safety was always to prevent anybody from building the fleet big enough to land on US coasts.
Times changed, ships are replaced by rockets, but the basical idea is the same. How do you think isolated US can prevent it better or worse?

[jld]

"most likely, the coup was not planned by the West or US"

You should look a bit more beyond US propaganda, the coup was so obviously planned that In November 2013 Ukrainian MP Oleg Tsarev denounced it (to no avail) in the Rada amidst a chorus of already active Maidan "revolutionaries"

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y9hOl8TuBUM

[William R. Cumming]

As a reward for what Classical Greece gave Western Civilization why not just have the US Federal Reserve loan the Greeks $200B at no interest since the US Federal Reserve gave the ECB trillions at zero interest?

As to the Ukraine just partition it at the appropriate river!

[Babak Makkinejad]

Send a couple of million dollars of that 200 billion my way so that the public library here could resume operating on Fridays.

What percentage of your pension income are you willing to send to Greece to support Greeks partying?

[Booby]

in reply to Twisted Genius & Tyler:

When I joined a Marine Infantry Battalion in VN as a FAC I thought that I was bringing the gods' gift to war to the field - air power. Within weeks I began to worship the mortars - the 60mm, 81mm & four deuces. In a meeting engagement, the mortars would have steel on target within minutes while I was still on the radio requesting the air support. I once watched a 81mm crew have all 10 rounds of a Double Iron Cross in the air before the 1st round impacted. I watched a 60mm mortarman hand hold the tube & walk rounds up a trail that was ascending a mountain & curving away. The mortar is an awesome weapon in the hands of a great crew.

[William R. Cumming]

No Fifth Century BCE Greeks alive not even the 300 Spartans.

[bth]

The whole Lukashenko interview is about Different Clue, speculate all you want, but read the Lukashenko interview for what it says. The entire article is on Belarus' relationship with Russia so I'm pretty sure he's concerned about Putin. I just thought the whole interview was odd in its timing and its content. Also what happens to Belarus and other Russian satellite states if they've tied themselves to the Russian economy that is now sinking like an anchor? Belarus is going to need to export to other markets or get pulled down themselves. Also I suspect Belarus doesn't want to be a transit point for Russians to attack Ukraine from the north.

[MRW]

Since Greece became the equivalent of the US State of Georgia when it gave up its sovereign currency for the Euro, the rich Greeks were free to move their money to a country like Germany, just like those in Atlanta can bank in New York.

So Greece is (1) not collecting a lot of tax dollars locally, and (2) it does not have the bank deposits or reserves to earn lower interest rates from the bond vigilantes (mainly French banks) who have hovered like vultures and pounced.

The best thing it could do is go back to the drachma. At least, it would be able to pay its own people in its own currency.

[VietnamVet]

different clue,

This is true. But, Western Plutocrats, Neo-conservatives, R2Ps, and Neo-liberals don’t give a damn about the long term consequences of their actions. Yemen, Libya, Iraq, Syria and Ukraine are all disasters because they believe they are the chosen ones. They create their own reality. They are above failure.

[Medicine Man]

A clear false dichotomy: Recognizing that NATO has out-lived its original purpose is not an endorsement of isolationism. Nice try though.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I ask again:

How much money exactly, out of your pension money, you personally are willing to send to Greece to subsidize their fun ways?

[Babak Makkinejad]

Yes, I agree.

Telling people to suffer economically for 7 years with no end in sight is not going to be tolerated; I suppose Portugal, Italy, and Spain are not too far behind.

It as though there is a great god of economics out there that after the obligatory period of penance - as determined by the Germans - is going to bring forward the economic good times.

Greece is as corrupt, as inefficient, as undeveloped, and as nepotistic as any other Middle Eastern country; she never belonged in the EU.

[The Beaver]

@ ex-PFC,

I doubt about France , considering who is the close adviser of F Hollande these days - J Audibert (if there is a French war hawk , he is one). Also , with France's goal to keep a thump in Africa (for the French businessmen), she will need the US to do some lifting for her whenever there is trouble in the African nations ( she is well equipped but the US have more sophisticated arms and cargo planes)

[bwilli123]

Interesting thoughts
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/01/27/in-it-to-win-it/
"The key to Putin’s thinking is that he is betting less on Russian strength than on German and therefore Western weakness. In opposing the consolidation of a German Europe, he is betting on German failure more than he is betting on Russian success. The goal of Russian policy in Ukraine, for example, is not to create a new Ukraine in Russia’s image. It is not to conquer Ukraine–but to demonstrate that the East is indigestible. Germany cannot save Ukraine or organize Ukraine. It doesn’t have the money, the military culture or the political skills to convert this particular sow’s ear into the silk purse of a North Atlantic market democracy. Germany cannot save Ukraine when the price of oil is at $100 per barrel; it cannot save Ukraine when the price of oil is $25 per barrel."

[Babak Makkinejad]

I read it.

I thought it was very insightful.

Had Germany countenanced ECB assuming public debt in 2008, Spain, Portugal, Italy, and Greece would have been in a much better shape.

I agree also with the statement that Germans think culture does not matter; an extremely ironic observation of a people whose best thinkers, writers, musicians and poets spent the better part of 19-th century in creating a German National Culture; a culture that was vigorously being imitated by all the Slavic people of the time.

The disrespecting of history must also be considered as part of that "culture-does-not-matter" fetish - the extension of Western European institutions to the areas outside of the old boundary between Eastern and Western Roman Empires.

Thank for posting this; I estimate that Putin is probably more right than wrong and EU states live in a glass house.

[Tyler]

Alba,

1)Police need Bear Cats when they're dealing with 5000 angry coloreds looking for an excuse to riot, ginned up by 500 professional agitators funded by George Soros.

People wring their hands about police being too "militarized". Then they wring their hands when police say "Okay, you do it" (witness NYC after the execution of Lu and Ramos). Basically police have to be mind readers.

2) Marriage is culturally, traditionally, and legally between a man and a woman for the past 10,000 years. Anything else is a joke at best, an abomination at worst. They have the same rights to be married as anyone else: to someone of the opposite sex. You start making arguments on feels and "two grown adults" and congrats - you've just opened the Pandora's box of perversities.

3) Calling someone a Nazi officially lost all meaning when HilDog Clinton called Vladimir Putin, who lost a brother when Stalingrad was besieged by the mother effin Wehrmacht, a Nazi. If someone starts dropping the N-bomb I immediately suspect their motives.

[Tyler]

TTG,

Always unimpressed with battalion level assets. They tended to be, in my eyes, the fattest and laziest troop, but the best at Spades. In Afghanistan we were rolling around in short platoons on the line (3 sqds with an attached mortar/FO team) trying to draw the Afghanis out to a fight, which with those odds they were usually happy to oblige. You HAD to be a sh-t hot gun team or else someone was going to eat an RPG because we didn't have the luxury of taking cover in a wash. This versus BN mortars who traveled in a platoon with the scout/snipers who weren't out on a hide and the BC's PSD. C'est la vie.

That's pretty impressive about out gunning the battery though. Good DC you had there as well. We have a few of those types running around still, but not as many as we did I reckon.

[Tyler]

Booby,

Thank you. I think a lot of the problems with the mortar come from officers not knowing what the hell they have and how to effectively use it. One PL was amazed we could give him illum, smoke, AND explosives out of it. Most officers seemed to be itching to call in an air strike versus letting their mortars put a few rounds on target and calling it a day. IDK I was just a Spec 4.

[Fred]

Piotr,

Leaving the defense alliance that is NATO will not isolate the US.

"You furnish the pictures and I'll furnish the war" So said W.R. Hearst a century ago. Poroshenko, Obama and others are busy doing the same thing right now. The Russian Federation isn't the Kingdom of Spain circa 1908. Not being in NATO eliminates a big probability of being on the receiving end of those ICBMs you are worried about falling on my country - due to warmongers in Europe. It will also make you and your fellow citizens figure out how to defend your own country without my people doing the killing and dying for you.