Send lawyers, guns and money... - TTG

Pro-Moscow rebels, backed by what NATO says is the open participation of Russian troops, pressed on with their offensive on Sunday after restarting the war in eastern Ukraine with the first all-out assault since a truce five months ago. 

U.S. President Barack Obama said Washington was considering all options short of military action to isolate Russia. The European Union called an emergency meeting of foreign ministers of its 28 member states. "We are deeply concerned about the latest break in the ceasefire and the aggression that these separatists -- with Russian backing, Russian equipment, Russian financing, Russian training and Russian troops -- are conducting," Obama told a news conference during a visit to India. "I will look at all additional options that are available to us short of military confrontation and try to address this issue. And we will be in close consultation with our international partners, particularly European partners." 

NATO accuses Moscow of sending troops to fight on behalf of rebels in territory the Kremlin has dubbed "New Russia" in a war that has killed more than 5,000 people. In some of the strongest language ever from Brussels, Donald Tusk, the former Polish prime minister who now presides over EU summits European Council president, denounced "appeasement" of Moscow, a word with unmistakable World War Two connotations. (Reuters)

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The Ukrainian army is essentially a ‘NATO legion’ which doesn’t pursue the national interests of Ukraine, but persists to restrict Russia, President Vladimir Putin says. “We often say: Ukrainian Army, Ukrainian Army. But who is really fighting there? There are, indeed, partially official units of armed forces, but largely there are the so-called ‘volunteer nationalist battalions’,” said Putin. He added that the intention of Ukrainian troops is connected with “achieving the geopolitical goals of restraining Russia.” Putin was addressing students in the city of St. Petersburg. According to Putin, the Ukrainian army “is not an army, but a foreign legion, in this case a foreign NATO legion, which, of course, doesn’t pursue the national interests of Ukraine.”

Kiev has been reluctant to find political solutions to the crisis in eastern Ukraine and only used the ceasefire to regroup its forces, the president stressed. “Unfortunately official Kiev authorities refuse to follow the path of a peaceful solution. They don’t want to resolve [the crisis] using political tools,” Putin said, adding that first Kiev authorities had first used law enforcement, then security services and then the army in the region. “It is essentially a civil war [in Ukraine]. In my view, many in Ukraine already understand this,” Putin added. (Russia Today)

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That pretty much sums up where the politicians stand now that last September's Minsk Protocol has collapsed so spectacularly. The Prime Minister of the Donetsk Peoples Republic (DNR), Alexandr Zakharchenko emphatically declared that there will be no more ceasefires. What's happening on the ground? It's difficult to know from day to day. Both sides push their own versions of reality. However, I think the photo at the top of this post sums up the current situation on the ground in Novorossiya. At center front, with his fist in the air is Matros, a company commander in the DNR Sparta Battalion. Behind him and two of his soldiers stand a number of Ukrainian prisoners, probably from the 93d Brigade, the “cyborgs” that held part of the airport since last summer. This picture was taken at the airport a few days ago after it was finally captured by the rebels. This video was probably made shortly after the above photo was taken. The words of Matros ring truer than those of any politician... "It's only the beginning."

Let's listen to words of some of the men at the heart of this battle to better understand  what's going on. In addition to Matros, hear the words of Motorola (Arseny Pavlov) and Givi (Mikail Tolstoy). Motorola is the 32 year old commander of the Sparta Battalion. He served in the Russian naval infantry in the 2nd Chechen War, but was a stone cutter before he joined the fighting last year. Givi commands the Somali Battalion. He served in the Ukrainian Army from 1998 to 2000 as a conscript tanker. After that he worked in a sling rope factory. Neither individual was a professional military man. They fought beside Strelkov at Slaviansk and were instrumental in closing and reducing the Iliovansk cauldron last August.

In this 16 January interview with Motorola, he describes how the Ukies launched an attack on his position at the airport and were repulsed before his battalion began the assault on the new terminal. 

In this 17 January interview Givi describes the airport battles, the importance of suppressive fires and acknowledges the strength of the Ukies and the difficulties of the battles ahead. On 18 January he describes how he repulsed a Ukie attack that attempted to outflank the airport. 

This is an interview with Givi and Matros in a more relaxed moment on 18 January.  Soldier talk. I miss it.

What does the future hold? For men like Givi, Motorola and Matros hard battles are ahead. Putin appears to be solidly behind the rebels military offensive since he is keepng the voentorg supplies flowing. This is more important than any political support at the moment. Perhaps most important is whatever training and advisory support Russia is providing. The polite men in green seem to be going a bang up job and they certainly know how to STFU. I have no proof of this, but my experience tells me it is so. I'm envious of their expertise and success. This clearly contrasts with whatever training and advisory program is in place for the Ukrainian Army. 

How far will Washington and the EU go to support the junta in Kiev? We had Standard and Poor cut Russia's credit rating to junk today. I seriously doubt this move will close the voentorg. If the rebels close and reduce a new cauldron at Debaltsteve, will the Ukrainian conscripts desert and/or defect en masse? Will Pravy Sektor and Svoboda overthrow the current junta in Kiev? Will the US and EU continue to support Kiev in that case? I have a feeling we'll have answers to these questions before General Mud arrives on the steppes of Ukraine.

TTG

 

Comments

[Tyler]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-25/out-my-face-please-why-are-us-soldiers-mariupol

Incredibly relevant. PMC, USSF, or SAD?

[The Twisted Genius]

Tyler,

Probably PMC or some soldier of fortune type looking for kicks. You know about that Swedish sniper Mikael Skillt serving in the Azov Battalion. Now that you mention SAD, that's a real possibility. The CIA most likely runs the Ukie service.

[Tyler]

TTG,

I thought either option 1 or option 3. Leaning towards 3 cause of the totality of the kit versus the standard mercenary grab bag of chest rig, geared out M4, and operator beard.

Maybe the PMCs learned something about covertcy but the guy looks too damn neat tbh.

[The Twisted Genius]

Tyler,

I think all the US arms, EU uniforms and equipment and non-Ukrainian reading material found in the ruble of the new terminal at the Donetsk Airport is more relevant than that "outa my face" dude in Mariupol.

[Paul Escobar]

To all,

A reliable bookmark to share with you all:
https://twitter.com/BradCabana/

When TTG goes radio-silent, I turn to Mr. Cabana for a solid North American view of this conflict. His Twitter collects real-time updates, while his blog provides contextualization & analysis. He has been critical of the NAF where it counts (handling of POW's). But, like many of us here, he is no fan of Nuland's "revolution".

Best,
Paul

[Tyler]

TTG,

Agreed. Both just go to show how wrecked everything is in general.

[trooper]

Dunno--Putinism seems to threaten Lithuanian sovereignty in the short run. I'm not so allergic to nationalism; leftists seem a lot worse, so I kinda like the "Ukie junta" even though I'm not a reflexive anti-Putin guy.

[confusedponderer]

The ukies are what they are. I just read a western LGBT activist expressing her horror at right sector thugs in camo torching a movie theatre in which an LGBT movie had been shown. The bottom line was that the Ukies dislike gays ... like the Russians!

"KIEV, Ukraine — It was a quiet evening in late autumn, perfect for going to the movies. Kiev’s Zhovten (October) theater, the oldest one in the city and a favorite with art-movie buffs, was showing a new French film called Les Nuits d’Été (Summer Nights), about a [transvestite]. The screening was part of Ukraine’s annual Molodist film festival, which included a selection of queer-themed features, and many in the audience — about a hundred people in all — belonged to Kiev’s LGBT community.

Twenty minutes into the movie ... a loud noise, like exploding firecrackers, came from the back seats. Panic broke out, as people rushed toward the exits. By the time the fire engines finally arrived, flames had already engulfed the roof of the theater, and the Kiev sky was lit up by a wild blaze. The fire was eventually put out, but much of the cinema was destroyed. An incendiary smoke grenade was deemed the most likely cause; fortunately, there were no casualties.

The official investigation has yet to close, but two suspects were apprehended, reportedly confessing that they had aimed to disrupt the event and “express … contempt for LGBT people.” Two days after the fire at Zhovten, about a dozen men in camouflage and the insignia of the ultranationalist group Right Sector tried to shut down another LGBT film screening, calling it “amoral.” Asked at the recent Eurocities Conference how he would support human rights after the Zhovten homophobic attacks, Maidan’s hero and current Kiev mayor Vitali Klitschko said he considered human rights a good thing, but would “not stand up for gays and lesbians.”
...
Ironically, incipient Ukrainian nationalism has closely mirrored its Russian counterpart, along with the emphasis on cultural orthodoxy and prescribed gender roles. As a result, vulnerable groups, like the LGBT community, have been caught in the middle.

“I believe we are in between two evils: Russian homophobic culture and Ukrainian homophobic intolerance,” says Olena Semenova, an LGBT activist."

https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/01/19/dashed-hopes-in-gay-ukraine-maidan-russia/

So that aversion against gays in Ukraine is cultural after all and not something foul that crept from the darker receses of Vladimir Putin's pitch black soul and is geographically thus limited to his evil empire? The horror.

Just wait, since thug is as thug does, probably, the next time the right sector thugs will do what hooligans do, and beat up movie goers.

This disillusionment about what the Maidan and its 'victors' were about underlines that the west in the Ukies prefers to see what they rather want to see.

[Imagine]

Aleksander Kwaśniewski, 10-yr former President of Poland, is another Director of Burisma. So at least one Polish oligarch has skin in the game.

[VietnamVet]

TTG

A full blown civil war has reignited on Russia’s border. Hiding the news from Ukraine on page 10 of the Washington Post and blaming Vladimir Putin for everything, doesn’t mitigate the incredible ease with which this war can get out of hand.

First this a conflict between two peoples, each with their own version of Orthodox Christianity and generations of ethnic hatred; compounded by thousands of dead already. Second, Western leaders decided to provoke a regime change in the Kremlin to prevent Russia from joining with China to form a new economic/political block. The West is providing direct financial and military support to Kiev and will not back down. Western Contractors are in the fight. Finally, Greece just voted to put an end to Eurozone Austerity.

I don’t see a peaceful resolution, countless more deaths will be the cost of trying to prop up a dying Empire and to shield the vast fortunes of a very few.

[Piotr]

Putin says: "The Ukrainian army is essentially a ‘NATO legion’ which doesn’t pursue the national interests of Ukraine"

In dictatorships what dictator says (and Russia is dictature now, after being halfdemocracy for a few years) is not really important. WHY he says so is really important!

What Putin wants to justify, using his words about NATO legion?

Further expansion of the Russian military presence in Donbas? Maybe...

Making land corridor to Crimea? Concentrating the power of the attack on Mariupol makes this goal probable...

Russians still can't supply Crimean Peninsula with food and energy, Crimea depends mostly on Ukrainian supply. And the bridge Kerch-Kavkaz, promised by Putin himself to Crimeans is not even in plans. Kerch- Kavkaz ferry line is too little for normal functioning of Crimea in Russian borders.

Look like the bridge was never in plans, unlike the land corridor through Mariupol

[Piotr]

The question where did western arms on Donetsk Airport came from is still opened:

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2015/01/19/how-did-american-weapons-end-up-at-donetsk-airport/

[Joe100]

SAD?

[The Twisted Genius]

Joe100,

CIA's Special Activities Division. Their paramilitary force..

[Aka]

Piotr,
Putin did not say Ukrainian army is a NATO legion. He was referring to the those "volunteer nationalist battalions (100% non-Nazi, non-oligarch private armies. certified by EU and WH and State department if anyone is worried)".

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/26/us-ukraine-crisis-military-idUSKBN0KZ0L920150126

http://rt.com/news/226319-putin-nato-russia-ukraine/

[jld]

You may be right. So? What's your point?

[Aka]

Piotr,
and putin does have a point. Ukraine can't win this war quickly and Ukraine is facing bankruptcy.

And there are few things that US can do without threatening WW III (even that may not work).

[Joe100]

TTG -

Given the nature of conflict in Ukraine - fairly large scale and somewhat balanced armored operations, no air cover for either side, "traditional" ground conflict (dug-in defenses, lots of artillery, etc.) I wonder how capable current/former PMC, SAD types or US advisors are given that such conflict would seem pretty far from likely combat experience over the past couple of decades??

[The Twisted Genius]

Joe100,

This combined arms conventional warfare is definitely something our military has not practiced since the start of the GWOT (global war on terror). Judging by some of Tyler's stories about Iraq and Afghanistan, our ability to use artillery and mortars has seriously atrophied. SAD, of course, doesn't know its ass from a hole in the ground when it comes to this kind of warfare.

[Joe100]

TTG -

Thanks for confirming my guesses on this. It will certainly be interesting to watch.

[bth]

If the US or a Nato country like Poland were to supply the Ukrainians with weapons and other assistance to prevent the Russians from taking Mariupol in coming months, what would that equipment or aid consist of? What is it that is needed?

[Aka]

dear TTG,
with trend of outsourcing intelligence related activities to private companies, is it possible that the SAD activities are also outsourced?

[The Twisted Genius]

Aka,

SAD has hired contractors for at least as long as I've been familiar with them.

[anna-marina]

Actually, there is an ongoing comprehensive preparation for "acquisition" of other peoples' mineral resources by the billionaires' club. The ordinary people in the US and EU have not been asked. You can read below the painfully contortionist "reasoning" by Stratfor' analyst that, in order to justify the US "defensive" measures thousands miles away from the US, distorts facts and lies about the chronology and rationale of events in Georgia and Ukraine.
http://us4.campaign-archive1.com/?u=74786417f9554984d314d06bd&id=8555517255&e=8c7a8a339f

Note that the puppeteers do not care whether the puppets (Nuland, Brennan...) are exposed as agents of the empire's aggression.

[anna-marina]

The civil war is part of overall strategy: http://us4.campaign-archive1.com/?u=74786417f9554984d314d06bd&id=8555517255&e=8c7a8a339f

No wonder that people in Russian Federation and Ukraine are scared of another war. Russia has too much natural resources and makes too many annoyances for the leading financiers, oilmen, and large corporations