Saudi Arabia's Human Geography Trap

Adam L. Silverman

¹

COL Lang wrote about ISIS's probing attack across Iraq's western border into eastern Saudi Arabia. Since then several interesting commentaries have been posted about what ISIS's target is. One argues that ISIS is planning on taking Mecca. Another that the goal is the oil fields. Both authors are correct, but there is a bigger strategic picture that they are missing. ISIS has three strategic objectives that have to be achieved in Saudi Arabia: 1) take the oil fields, 2) seize Mecca, and 3) weaken or overthrow the monarchy. All three of these objectives are related to Saudi Arabia's human geography combined with several other Saudi socio-cultural dynamics, such as the official religion of Saudi Arabia and the politics of and within the House of Saud.

Saudi Arabia's Human Geography Trap

Human geography is how people, places, and physical things, such as infrastrucure interact. In the case of Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province the natural resource of oil, the infrastructure for its extraction and processing, just happen to be where Saudi's Shi'a live. This can be seen in the map above. This confluence of vital natural resource and minority community has proven to be problematic in the past. ISIS's intentions to push into the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia makes this coincidence of collocation into a significant pitfall. As has been seen in Syria and Iraq, ISIS does not tolerate Shi'a Islam. This intolerance is rooted in the exact same Wahabbi Islam that is the officical religion of Saudi Arabia. It is promoted by the Saudi religious authorities, as well as members of the Saudi royal family and government. Wahhabi Islam, the theological and theopolitical offshoot of Hanbali Islam has been the unifying ideational system of Saudi Arabia from the Kingdom's creation. It is also completely intolerant of Shi'a Islam viewing it as a particularly insidious form of apostasy.² 

The trap is the result of Saudi Arabia's Shi'a residing in the same place where Saudi oil can be found. Should ISIS make a push to take the oil fields, they will attempt to ethno-religiously cleanse the area of Shi'a at the same time. This is going to place Saudi Arabia in a far more difficult position than just having to protect the oil fields and infrastructure. They will have to defend the Shi'a as well. Remember, the official religion of Saudi Arabia, which is the same religion that undergirds ISIS (and al Qaeda), is intolerant of Shi'a Islam. This commonality of Wahabbi religious belief makes Saudi Arabians the most easy ISIL information target. The Information Operations (IO) campaign, and the messaging that ISIL will utilize, do not have to be explained or enforced in regards to the Saudis - its the same religious message. The only discordant note, of course, may be dealing with the declared caliphate of al Baghdadi. The sameness of the belief system is what will make defense of the Eastern Province difficult. Protecting it will require that Saudi Arabia either protect the Shi'a - in place or as internally displaced Saudis - or ignoring the plight of the Shi'a who have come under ISIS control and focusing solely on the oil infrastructure and reserves. The former provides an opportunity for ISIS to effectively target Saudi Sunnis and try to pull their support away from the Saudi government through a coordinated, theologically rooted information operation decrying the Saudi government and military for protecting apostates. The latter creates external risks for the Saudis. These include problems with its foreign supporters and patrons, such as the US, who will have human right concerns regarding the protection of the Saudi Shi'a or lack thereof. Another, more regional concern, will be in regard to Saudi's regional rival Iran, which has cast itself as the protector of Shi'a. The combination of Saudi's oil infrastructure and its Shi'a in the Eastern Province is going to add a significant complication.

While Mecca is a clear ISIS target, the real ISIS objectives are capturing the oil fields and if not taking down the monarchy, then seriously compromising it. Taking the oil fields is important as it allows ISIS to add additional petroleum resources to those they have seized in Iraq. This, in turn, will allow for further sales on the black market bringing ISIS increased revenue to fund its expansion, consolidation, and operations. Capturing the Saudi oil fields would also, essentially, destroy OPEC and the global oil marketplace as we currently know it. Saudi's recent driving of oil prices to under $50.00 a barrel had multiple drivers. One was to make it financially unprofitable to extract oil from tar sands. Once the price of oil goes below $60 to $65 dollars a barrel, tar sands extraction just is not worth it. This motivation, however, quickly gave way last Fall to trying to beggar ISIS. The lower the price of oil on the global market, the less revenue ISIS can bring in selling the oil from the seized Iraqi oil fields on the black market. Should Saudi lose control of its oil, it will lose control over OPEC, which is likely to deal a serious blow to the stability of the global petroleum market.

The monarchy is ISIS's other target. It is right now going through a somewhat rough patch. King Abdullah, who is 90, has been recently hospitalized with pneumonia. The succession has been clearly established since 2013. Crown Prince Salman is the immediate heir and Deputy Crown Prince Muqrin is second in line to the throne should something befall King Abdullah. What is interesting here is that Deputy Crown Prince Muqrin is not only the youngest of the Sons of Saud, his mother was also a Yemeni consort/concubine. This has raised some questions, both within and without the Saudi royal family, about his legitimacy. The current line of succession further isolates the remnants of the Sudairi Seven, their sons and grandsons, who had long dominated the politics within the House of Saud. The next succession is also the last one that is solely under control of the king. All future successors after Abdullah's two choices will have to be approved by the Allegiance Council, which is made up of thirty-five senior princes. While the succession has been clearly delineated, the ill health of King Abdullah creates opportunities for ISIS to further their objectives against the Kingdom. 

ISIS has three different objectives it needs to achieve in Saudi Arabia. The first is taking the oil fields, which will provide ISIS with increased revenue on the black market. It will also be an additional economic weapon in ISIS's arsenal in the attempt to consolidate and expand its caliphate. The second is to drive across the country and seize Mecca. Control of the holiest city of Islam will further enhance ISIS's theocratic and theopolitical messaging, justifications, and IO campaign. Taking Mecca would also create an additional opening to further weaken or bring down the monarchy. Saudi Arabia, specifically the monarchy and the religious authorities, have always been the target of al Qaeda. ISIS, as an al Qaeda offshoot, is partially driven by the same theopolitical calculus: that Islam cannot be returned to the straight path until the House of Saud is removed and the religious authority is purged and replaced with a proper Islamic system of governance, religion, economics, and social control. It is perhaps this reality that shows just the extremism and unreality of the reactionary Islam promoted by al Qaeda and ISIS - the belief that Saudi Arabia is not properly Muslim or not Islamic enough!

¹ I found this map of Saudi demographics, as well as the where the oil fields are, here. The bottom righthand corner of the map, however, indicates that it was created by StratFor.

² As`ad Abu Khalil's The Battle for Saudi Arabia has one of the best written and documented histories of the creation, development, politics, and religion of the Saudi monarchy.

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

Tribes waving flags?

[Abu Sinan]

You beat me to it Bandolero. The Houthis have recently surrounded the presidential residence. One of their main stated goals is more regional rights for their area of Sa'dah. This has lead them to Sana'a where they have pretty much occupied the entire city. It has also lead them to take al hudaydah and battle Sunni militants and AQAP all of the way down.

Sa'dah itself is close to Najran in Saudi. Najran itself was historically a part of Yemen until invaded and annexed to Saudi. The Houthis/Zaidis of Yemen are the only force in the area that is fighting AQAP and having a fair amount of success against them despite AQAP suicide attacks and assassinations of political leaders and members of the Zaidi community.

If ISIL were to try and take the oil fields across the border, or actually did take them, I think we could expect the Houthis and Zaidis in general get involved in the conflict. I think as a fighting force they are a force to be reckoned with. The support would be in the way of troops, equipment and money. I dont believe there is a way that they would allow themselves to be boxed in my ISIL in the north and AQAP in the south.

I believe that the Shi'a of Saudi itself would fight. In the last few decades there has been widespread opposition to the Saudi government and during the Arab Spring there were major protests in which hundreds were killed.

The Shi'a opposition in the area is very divided, but with the specter of whole sale genocide or ethnic cleansing, I think they would make common cause and fight. Between the Zaidis and the Saudi Shi'a, I dont think ISIL would find it easy taking or holding the area.

[Charles I]

Just a couple of weeks ago, there was a mass casualty suicide bombing that seemed to me to foreshadow further destabilization, I recall posting it somewhere.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/12/houthis-killed-yemen-suicide-bombing-2014123195624881154.html

[Charles I]

Former colonials now overstepping - overturning - the thin red lines drawn a century ago

[turcopolier]

Abu Sinan

Yes, but in the cities of the Hijaz there are many migrants from the Najd and Asir. pl

[Bandolero]

Charles I
One may read the recent string of bombings in Yemen also differently.

I'ld more likely read the recent string of bombings in Yemen more like a helpless counter-reaction from Al Qaeda, because Al Qaeda, it's allies and it's comrades in organized crime in Yemen recently lost significant military battles and strongholds like in Ibb and Raada. So, when reading the situation in Yemen like this, the string of bombings is not a sign of destabilization - whatever that means in a country like Yemen which has a stable presence of Al Qaeda - but as an unavoidable collateral damage when Al Qaedas foothold there is reduced.

[Abu Sinan]

This is not new. My wife's cousin and her cousin were in Sana'a until last year. It just got too dangerous. Large scale attacks and bombings have become all too common, along with assassinations of politic figures like Dr. Mohammed al-Mutawakel. He was the head of a Yemeni liberal political part. He was murdered the day after his party signed onto an agreement with the Houthis.

[turcopolier]

all

One must remember that no Yemeni government has ever controlled more than 10% of its territory. IMO that would include the Ottomans in the north and the Brits in the south. pl

[M. Oline]

January 22

The King is dead. God save the King.

[J]

Colonel, Adam,

Saudi King Abdullah has now passed on.

Saudi King Abdullah dies, new ruler is Salman
http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-tv-cuts-koranic-verses-often-signifies-royal-231552854.html

[Cee]

David,

Israel controls the US. They aren't tail wagging the dog now...they are the dog.

[Cee]

CP,

The current king is dead and it is reported that the successor has dementia, plus, his mother was not a wife but a concubine from Yemen. Family strife coming?

[turcopolier]

Cee

"The current king is dead and it is reported that the successor has dementia, plus, his mother was not a wife but a concubine from Yemen. Family strife coming?" The Saudi Royal family have little sense of "propriety" in the matter of peoples' mothers. Abdullah's mother was a Shammar beduin woman from the "houses of hair." (buyut as-shar). She grew up in her father's goat hair tent as the tribesmen migrated yearly from SA to Syria. She is reported to have had a nice set of facial tattoos and henna stained hands and feet. This mother gave Abdullah a great advantage n dealing with Syria. A Yemeni slave concubine (jarriya) is not a problem. The Saudis are really parvenu minor leaders from the Najd who "got lucky" in the context of WW1 and the post war turmoil. They are a lot like a dynasty of rich people emerged from a region like the Ozarks. They will patiently wait for Salman to die. pl

[William R. Cumming]

P.L. and ALL! What are the current links between Yemen and S.A. if any? Cultural, religious, economic, military?

Could this be the center of a world crisis?

[turcopolier]

WRC

The "crisis" is in the damned media. pl

[Thomas]

The author of this linked article contends the Sudairis consolidated control and want to move from a Creative Reality policy to a Pragmatic Reality policy. It will be interesting to see if this truly unfolds. Will they offer an olive branch to their cross Gulf rival, such as accepting a deal of de-escaltion?

"Salman moved swiftly to undo the work of his half-brother. He decided not to change his crown prince Megren, who was picked by King Abdullah for him, but he may choose to deal with him later. However, he swiftly appointed another leading figure from the Sudairi clan. Mohammed Bin Nayef, the interior minister is to be his deputy crown prince. It is no secret that Abdullah wanted his son Meteb for that position, but now he is out.

More significantly, Salman, himself a Sudairi, attempted to secure the second generation by giving his 35- year old son Mohammed the powerful fiefdom of the defense ministry. The second post Mohammed got was arguably more important. He is now general secretary of the Royal Court. All these changes were announced before Abdullah was even buried.

The general secretaryship was the position held by the Cardinal Richelieu of Abdullah's royal court, Khalid al-Tuwaijri. It was a lucrative business handed down from father to son and started by Abdul Aziz al Tuwaijri. The Tuwaijris became the king's gatekeepers and no royal audience could be held without their permission, involvement, or knowledge. Tuwaijri was the key player in foreign intrigues -- to subvert the Egyptian revolution, to send in the troops to crush the uprising in Bahrain, to finance ISIL in Syria in the early stages of the civil war along his previous ally Prince Bandar bin Sultan."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-hearst/a-saudi-palace-coup_b_6531246.html

[Cee]

All,

I neglected to add this after mentioning fairy tales in my last post.
If we stopped believing the myths pertaining to the land of Israel, more Americans would WAKE UP and Israel wouldn't continue to get away with murder.

A senior archaeologist at Tel Aviv University has cast doubt on the alleged Jewish heritage of Jerusalem. Israel Finkelstein's claims have been made in the face of official Israeli and biblical claims to the occupied city.

Professor Finkelstein, who is known as "the father of biblical archaeology", told the Jerusalem Post that Jewish archaeologists have found no historical or archaeological evidence to back the biblical narrative on the Exodus, the Jews' wandering in Sinai or Joshua's conquest of Canaan. On the alleged Temple of Solomon, Finkelstein said that there is no archaeological

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/2705-senior-israeli-archaeologist-casts-doubt-on-jewish-heritage-of-jerusalem

[William R. Cumming]

Thanks P.L.!

IMO the USA could survive the loss of the S.A. oilfields but not S.A. support of the petro-dollar system.