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18 January 2015

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William R. Cumming

Tribes waving flags?

Abu Sinan

You beat me to it Bandolero. The Houthis have recently surrounded the presidential residence. One of their main stated goals is more regional rights for their area of Sa'dah. This has lead them to Sana'a where they have pretty much occupied the entire city. It has also lead them to take al hudaydah and battle Sunni militants and AQAP all of the way down.

Sa'dah itself is close to Najran in Saudi. Najran itself was historically a part of Yemen until invaded and annexed to Saudi. The Houthis/Zaidis of Yemen are the only force in the area that is fighting AQAP and having a fair amount of success against them despite AQAP suicide attacks and assassinations of political leaders and members of the Zaidi community.

If ISIL were to try and take the oil fields across the border, or actually did take them, I think we could expect the Houthis and Zaidis in general get involved in the conflict. I think as a fighting force they are a force to be reckoned with. The support would be in the way of troops, equipment and money. I dont believe there is a way that they would allow themselves to be boxed in my ISIL in the north and AQAP in the south.

I believe that the Shi'a of Saudi itself would fight. In the last few decades there has been widespread opposition to the Saudi government and during the Arab Spring there were major protests in which hundreds were killed.

The Shi'a opposition in the area is very divided, but with the specter of whole sale genocide or ethnic cleansing, I think they would make common cause and fight. Between the Zaidis and the Saudi Shi'a, I dont think ISIL would find it easy taking or holding the area.

Charles I

Just a couple of weeks ago, there was a mass casualty suicide bombing that seemed to me to foreshadow further destabilization, I recall posting it somewhere.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/12/houthis-killed-yemen-suicide-bombing-2014123195624881154.html

Charles I

Former colonials now overstepping - overturning - the thin red lines drawn a century ago

turcopolier

Abu Sinan

Yes, but in the cities of the Hijaz there are many migrants from the Najd and Asir. pl

Bandolero

Charles I
One may read the recent string of bombings in Yemen also differently.

I'ld more likely read the recent string of bombings in Yemen more like a helpless counter-reaction from Al Qaeda, because Al Qaeda, it's allies and it's comrades in organized crime in Yemen recently lost significant military battles and strongholds like in Ibb and Raada. So, when reading the situation in Yemen like this, the string of bombings is not a sign of destabilization - whatever that means in a country like Yemen which has a stable presence of Al Qaeda - but as an unavoidable collateral damage when Al Qaedas foothold there is reduced.

Abu Sinan

This is not new. My wife's cousin and her cousin were in Sana'a until last year. It just got too dangerous. Large scale attacks and bombings have become all too common, along with assassinations of politic figures like Dr. Mohammed al-Mutawakel. He was the head of a Yemeni liberal political part. He was murdered the day after his party signed onto an agreement with the Houthis.

turcopolier

all

One must remember that no Yemeni government has ever controlled more than 10% of its territory. IMO that would include the Ottomans in the north and the Brits in the south. pl

M. Oline

January 22

The King is dead. God save the King.

J

Colonel, Adam,

Saudi King Abdullah has now passed on.

Saudi King Abdullah dies, new ruler is Salman
http://news.yahoo.com/saudi-tv-cuts-koranic-verses-often-signifies-royal-231552854.html

Cee

David,

Israel controls the US. They aren't tail wagging the dog now...they are the dog.

Cee

CP,

The current king is dead and it is reported that the successor has dementia, plus, his mother was not a wife but a concubine from Yemen. Family strife coming?

turcopolier

Cee

"The current king is dead and it is reported that the successor has dementia, plus, his mother was not a wife but a concubine from Yemen. Family strife coming?" The Saudi Royal family have little sense of "propriety" in the matter of peoples' mothers. Abdullah's mother was a Shammar beduin woman from the "houses of hair." (buyut as-shar). She grew up in her father's goat hair tent as the tribesmen migrated yearly from SA to Syria. She is reported to have had a nice set of facial tattoos and henna stained hands and feet. This mother gave Abdullah a great advantage n dealing with Syria. A Yemeni slave concubine (jarriya) is not a problem. The Saudis are really parvenu minor leaders from the Najd who "got lucky" in the context of WW1 and the post war turmoil. They are a lot like a dynasty of rich people emerged from a region like the Ozarks. They will patiently wait for Salman to die. pl

William R. Cumming

P.L. and ALL! What are the current links between Yemen and S.A. if any? Cultural, religious, economic, military?

Could this be the center of a world crisis?

turcopolier

WRC

The "crisis" is in the damned media. pl

Thomas

The author of this linked article contends the Sudairis consolidated control and want to move from a Creative Reality policy to a Pragmatic Reality policy. It will be interesting to see if this truly unfolds. Will they offer an olive branch to their cross Gulf rival, such as accepting a deal of de-escaltion?

"Salman moved swiftly to undo the work of his half-brother. He decided not to change his crown prince Megren, who was picked by King Abdullah for him, but he may choose to deal with him later. However, he swiftly appointed another leading figure from the Sudairi clan. Mohammed Bin Nayef, the interior minister is to be his deputy crown prince. It is no secret that Abdullah wanted his son Meteb for that position, but now he is out.

More significantly, Salman, himself a Sudairi, attempted to secure the second generation by giving his 35- year old son Mohammed the powerful fiefdom of the defense ministry. The second post Mohammed got was arguably more important. He is now general secretary of the Royal Court. All these changes were announced before Abdullah was even buried.

The general secretaryship was the position held by the Cardinal Richelieu of Abdullah's royal court, Khalid al-Tuwaijri. It was a lucrative business handed down from father to son and started by Abdul Aziz al Tuwaijri. The Tuwaijris became the king's gatekeepers and no royal audience could be held without their permission, involvement, or knowledge. Tuwaijri was the key player in foreign intrigues -- to subvert the Egyptian revolution, to send in the troops to crush the uprising in Bahrain, to finance ISIL in Syria in the early stages of the civil war along his previous ally Prince Bandar bin Sultan."

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/david-hearst/a-saudi-palace-coup_b_6531246.html

Cee

All,

I neglected to add this after mentioning fairy tales in my last post.
If we stopped believing the myths pertaining to the land of Israel, more Americans would WAKE UP and Israel wouldn't continue to get away with murder.

A senior archaeologist at Tel Aviv University has cast doubt on the alleged Jewish heritage of Jerusalem. Israel Finkelstein's claims have been made in the face of official Israeli and biblical claims to the occupied city.

Professor Finkelstein, who is known as "the father of biblical archaeology", told the Jerusalem Post that Jewish archaeologists have found no historical or archaeological evidence to back the biblical narrative on the Exodus, the Jews' wandering in Sinai or Joshua's conquest of Canaan. On the alleged Temple of Solomon, Finkelstein said that there is no archaeological

https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/news/middle-east/2705-senior-israeli-archaeologist-casts-doubt-on-jewish-heritage-of-jerusalem

William R. Cumming

Thanks P.L.!

IMO the USA could survive the loss of the S.A. oilfields but not S.A. support of the petro-dollar system.

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