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12 October 2014

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Fred

Request for TC input. - What is the status of the FSA forces? Have there been further arms resupply by the Obama Administration?

turcopolier

Fred

TC Response - FSA in Syria is an inconsequential force by 5 March. what is left of them are defecting to IS or leaving the country. The Plateau of Sheep brigade has had three month training at KKMC. pl

AnonymousB

Colonel, if ISIS wants to keep advancing and take as much land as possible, why would they want to execute 5000 people? Especially since they could use them to their advantage as stated above....

turcopolier

AnonymousB

TC Response - People do not matter. Salvation matters. p[

alba etie

TC
Given this description of events I predict Turkey will be expelled from NATO.

Poul

After Russia's statement that they would not veto a condemnation of Turkey and the unrest among Turkish Kurds.
The Turkish government begin to accused the PKK of launching small scale attacks from Kurdish controlled Northern Syria. If these attacks persist the responds from the Turkish army will be forceful and swift. A protection zone will be established were no one (including IS) will be allowed to posses weapons except for the Turkish army.

Troops are redeployed to the Syrian border near the Kurdish controlled areas. Commentators fear its an excuse to attack and disarm YPG units.

elaine

I suspect a hack attack on the IFF codes but I can't tell where it's coming from. Can anyone verify?

Kyle Pearson

Chinese roundups of Uighurs are limited in scope and concentrated on the leadership and actively armed groups, which are few in number. The roundups include a lot of on-the-ground cooperation from other Uighurs and cross-border spies from Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan. The recent, efficient, largely bloodless arrests of Uighur leaders by the Chinese military, coupled with the cooperation of Chinese media and public institutions to refrain from labeling the agitation as any sort of religious or ethnic-based terrorism, has successfully persuaded most Uighurs in the region that their interests are better served by patriotic work within the Chinese state, rather than attempting to undermine it.

The roundups of extremists within China is quickly completed, and soon disappears from the media as nothing but one more forgotten blip. Investment and diplomacy in Afghanistan and Pakistan is not affected in any way.

rick

TC Question,

JUWTFME ? Joint Unconventional Warfare Task Force Middle East?

BabelFish

TC control request: Based on ISIS lagers of armor, attempting to achieve critical mass to break through the lines around Aleppo, wish to have free and clear to launch a Tomahawk raid on the concentration of troops, supplies, soft skinned vehicles and command centers. This will amount to 40 missiles and will be launched from the USS Ohio. The risk is lack of effectiveness in finding truly concentrated targets.

With that in mind, a further request is a follow up raid by F-15E aircraft, using CBU-97 ord to destroy as much ISIS armor as possible. The risk is the potential for MAPADS to take down one or more F-15Es. This is somewhat mitigated by the strikes being done at night. A further goal is to create a break in ISIS controlled land immediate to the Syrian army, that might be exploited by them to drive ISIS troops further East.

turcopolier

Babelfish

TC Response - Operation approved. Advise of results. pl

turcopolier

rick

TC Response - Yes. You have not read the scenarios, pl

turcopolier

AnonymousB

TC Response - Furthermore IS finds these secularist Kurdish revolutionaries to be particularly unacceptable and would kill them all if they were not useful as human shields. pl

confusedponderer

Input:
Use of CBU-97 with WCMD will mitigate MANPAD threat, allow F-15 E standoff.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wind_Corrected_Munitions_Dispenser

CBU-105 variant probably devastating against vehicle targets.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CBU-97_Sensor_Fuzed_Weapon

Also, further follow-up strikes from America's (far more) numerous (than SSGN) Aegis destroyers possible. SSGN advantages persistence and stealth not necessary against ISIS. Wasted asset. IMO. Arleigh Burke class platforms probably sufficient for task. IMO.

Intense US heavy bomber strikes alternative: "a single B-52 high altitude heavy bomber can destroy an entire armored division with [CBU-97], where in the past dozens of aircraft would have had to drop hundreds of bombs for the same effect." Add JDAM for versatility.

B-52/1/2 strikes distinct possibility to tip balance in emergency if ISIS breakthrough apparent.

Relative greater ease of attacking ISIS in the open, suggests preventive, early use as long as they are on the march.

Intensive use of airpower in built up areas likely devastating with high collateral damage, will 'destroy village to save it'. Probable incentive for Obama to use air power early.

ISIS reacts to threat of US air power by stealth movement and dispersal, or risk anihilation. Any mistakes on ISIS part likely fatal.

BabelFish

Thank you for the insights. To your points:

The USS Florida was used in Libya (96 launches reported). The use was justified by the ability to 'ripple fire' the Tomahawks relatively close together in time, for maximum synchronized effect. The same effect could be produced by multiple Arleigh Burke platforms but the Ohio is already on station and the coordination of the attack only has to be with one vessel, in the case of the Ohio.

The Strike Eagle effort is preferred as the ISIS armor, while clustered in individual lagers, is still dispersed enough to make individual lager attacks desirable. They can be timed nearly together, with greater precision. As to the CBUs, the wind corrected munition effect will, as you point out, probably negate MANPADS ranges of 12,000 feet. The Strike Eagle's LAINTIRN pods can handle drops at height greater than that. This may not be true if visibility becomes an issue and the attacks have to be pressed at a lower altitude.

BDA will be done by drone, in daylight of the next morning. Reaper's can do nearly real time follow up with Hellfires and SDB (small diameter bombs) on individual armor that looks to have escaped the initial attacks.

bth

Americas

The death of Fidel Castro and Cuban economic weakness when Russian and Venezuelan fuel subsidies do not arrive causes chaos. A mass wave of Cuban boat people seeking political asylum floats up to tourist beaches in Florida.

Debate on immigration in the Republican controlled Congress results in a general outline of an immigration policy sponsored by McCain emerges from Republican controlled House and Senate.

Venezuela’s government collapses financially. A new government announces that it will produce relatively high cost heavy oils at record levels but priced at marginal pricing to generate cash.

World prices of oil continue to decline to $60/bbl financially straining Venezuela, Iran, and Russia. US oil companies are sued for overstating their earnings potential and the US O&G industry goes into a slump for the first time in years.

The US dollar continues to remain strong against world currencies. There is a hint of a rise in short term interest rates as bond funds begin de-leveraging and old managers announce retirement in record numbers.

East Asia

Chinese real estate markets continue free fall bringing some private banks down with it. A wave of pro democracy protests are harshly suppressed and Chinese anti-corruption campaigns are put into high gear.

A drone war erupts over the Pacific between Japan and China threatening a general war between these two Asian super powers that could drag in the US. The US negotiates a working arrangement between Japan and China over islands with potential natural gas reserves. Crisis is averted for now. Other maritime disputes are increasingly resolved in favor of China.

South Asia

India and Pakistan begin a violent and sustained tit for tat exchange of mortar and artillery fire along its common border.

This crisis nearly erupts in all out war when a fishing boat detonates alongside a large Indian war ship sinking it as the resulting fire on board was not controlled due to maintenance and training failures.

The US brokers a deal whereby India purchases a helicopter carrier from France, previously to be delivered to Russia, with US government financing. Modi announces a new era of US and Indian relations but most observers are skeptical.

India agrees to joint venture in the domestic production of a large number of Russian designed aircraft.
There are rumors of corruption in the process but those are ruthlessly suppressed by India’s increasingly nationalistic government. Russian workers protest about outsourcing of jobs in a strategically significant industry.

Russia-Ukraine

Russia imposes sweeping price controls and its internal police become repressive in ways not seen since the Soviet era. The Russian public begins to protest in larger crowds around Moscow and St. Petersburg. Mothers of Russian soldiers become the focal point as they protest the use of Russian troops in the Ukraine with rumors of inadequate equipment and supplies similar to US public outcries around 2003.

After a winter of fuel shortages and periodic artillery barrages, the conflict in the eastern Ukraine begins to fissile along current lines of control as all parties face exhaustion. Putin has orchestrated a series of made for Russian TV documentaries showing rebels in eastern Ukraine as WWII era documentaries similar to the siege of Leningrad. However, almost all parties have a general revulsion to continued warfare. There is a rumor that the Ukraine government has begun a nuclear program.

Western Europe

German banking decisions and collapsing economies in Southern Europe cause government financial defaults and a wave of anti-immigration protests. Relations between Turkey and the EU are further strained as Erdogan coaches Turkish immigrants not to assimilate into Europe but maintain their cultural identify.

Iraq-Syria

IS makes good on the use of water as a strategic weapon against downstream enemies.

Refined gasoline remains in short supply near IS territories and electricity faces increasing shortages as power lines are sabotaged by unknown forces in IS controlled territories as summer approaches.

Food shortages begin to emerge in IS territories as farmers decline to plant due to financial constraints and unreliable electricity for irrigation.

Fighting around Baghdad bogs down along ethnic neighborhoods making the city generally unlivable, but the Shia government remains in control. BIA decreases in significance as commercial airlines decline to fly into this dangerous airport.

Kurds begin to press southeast of Kirkuk. A Norwegian company announced construction of a small refinery in Kurdish territories.

Iran

Relations with the US continue to improve if informally. Israel threatens to destroy Iran’s nuclear program and begins a covert plan to disrupt improving US-Iranian relations. The US signals that a nuclear agreement is now possible and Europe concurs. Iran opens supply routes for the US to remove equipment from Afghanistan. Prices of gasoline rise regionally but investments are made in gasoline refinery capacity in Iran. Real estate prices in Tehran increase on speculation of decreased sanctions. Kurdish separatist activity falls to zero in Iran but rises in eastern
Turkey.

Turkey

Erdogan announces public concerns about US policy toward Kurds in Iraq and elsewhere. US public sympathy toward Kurds is at all time highs and begins to drive policy decisions in the White House toward recognized independence. Anti-US protests emerge in Turkey but are not supported by students and urban populations. IS consulates in Turkey are bombed perhaps by Kurd terrorists.

Africa

Ebola remains simmering but increasingly under control as seasonal factors and improved public health actions show results. Economic investment into Africa are at all time lows and capital flight out of Africa causes near financial collapse in many areas. Riots become common and tribal warfare not seen in several decades begins to re-emerge.

Babak Makkinejad

They already have said as much "Kurds are Iranian Magus and must convert to Islam..."

BabelFish

Operation Report, Striking ISIS with Tomahawks and Strike Eagles

A wave of Tomahawk missiles is launch from the eastern Med early in the morning of March 21st. The date is only significant due to various assets confirming enough concentration of ISIS targets, including armor, to justify the attempt.

The 40 Tomahawks make their way to their targeted points without mishap and detonate. While a significant amount of ISIS material and personnel are damaged/killed, that is by no means as devastating as the loss of communications and control.

With the shock and awe and confusion caused by the missile attack, the Strike Eagles attack in less than 20 minutes afer the last Tomahawk warhead detonates and find ISIS SAM teams caught flat footed. Most of the ord drops are done above MANPAD altitudes and devastate the ISIS lagers. However, one tandem of F-15Es finds their radar warning sets screaming at them. An ISIS captured SA-6 unit has been turned on and is trying to lock up the Eagles. This threat is quickly extinguished when an escorting F-16D fires HARMs at the threat and it eats both of the missiles.

Early morning BDA reveals a serious degradation of ISIS formations in the strike area. The Syrian army responds by moving out in company strength into the ‘gap’ and begins to attempt to roll up both newly created ISIS flanks. ISIS units fight hard but their movement is now being tracked by JSTARS and Rivet Joint aircraft and they are under constant attack by various coalition aircraft. Due to the need to concentrate to stop the Syrian Army, they can not successfully disperse, their prior strategy to air interdiction. The Syrians are only stopped by logistics and lack of effective units to throw into the fray.

bth

On 21 January 2015 at the beginning of the Davos world economic forum it is reported that Soros and several US investment banking houses made billions shorting the ruble and hryvnia. Soros donates hundreds of millions to socially responsible NGOs and political action committees. US and UK financial houses report Russian computer hackers are disrupting financial records necessary to issue year-end bonuses to executives.

BabelFish

To specify, the target areas were around the Aleppo perimeter.

The Twisted Genius

The flow of supplies and recruits from Turkey to IS controlled areas are being increasingly plagued by YPG ambushes and interdiction by increasingly effective U.S. airstrikes. By the end of June, urban areas as far south as Raqqah and Hassakah are seeing IS paymasters, recruiters and local leaders assassinated at an alarming rate. Dispersed IS supply caches are being raided. By mid-June IS is forced to withdraw some of its forces from the Aleppo front to address the growing attacks across Kurdish Syria.

The SAA solidifies its hold on the Aleppo area and the few remaining besieged neighborhoods of Aleppo itself. SAAF interdiction of rebel supplies and reinforcements from Jarabulus and other nearby border crossing points north of Aleppo is persistent and effective. Russia accelerated its shipment of Yak-130 light attack jets to Syria. They are already involved in the northern interdiction campaign as well as providing ground support to the SAA. On 30 June Assad restates his promise of two years ago of giving autonomy to the Kurds in Syria. YPG fighters from the Afrin area are also increasingly aggressive against IS north of Aleppo. Curiously this is not part of JUWTFME activities. There are rumors of contacts between US DOD and Russian MOD back in May including a long meeting the evening after the 2015 Victory Day Parade over a bottle of fine scotch between Generals Dempsey and Shoygu. It is further rumored that Shoygu presented Dempsey with a particularly fine katana.

elaine

The French craft Charles de Gaulle R 91 has been scheduled for a much needed overhaul meant to be inactive 2015-2018 system failures in game 3 are probable.

IFF codes are under attack not by ISIS but U.S. resulting
in collision between between French aircraft & Syrian.
M.B operatives in the Pentagon seize opportunity to declare rumped up hostility on Damascus. Somehow the majority of perfumed princes are able to put the genie back in the bottle.

The liberal media turns it's focus away from the ISIS conflict(s)...(i.e. no one in D.C. knows how to declare war... )by intense coverage of Missouri. Note also the near scrub job done by the media after the massacre of the 5,0000 Kurds after Kobani falls. The media is now under intense pressure to tap down sympathy for the Kurds.

Any U.S. force presence in Mecca & Medina no matter how needed will not be tolerated by the Nursa/A.Q. gang. The Kingdom titters.

Turkey actually comes closer to receiving an invite into E.U. as this has not been so much about widespread conflict
between nations or religions as an attempt for world government by any means necessary. Everyone hopes the alligator will eat him last.

Bandolero

My turn - Forecast of events until 4 July 2015

Kobane Front
Due to IS mass killings after the fall of Kobane, there is a high public pressure on US and western governments to do "something" about it. The things just starts to get messy on the question what is that "something" that should be done. There is absolutely no unity in in the US and western countries regarding that question. As the least common denominator it seems to come out a consensus in the US that the US shall intensify it's aerial campaign against IS, throw more bombs at IS, to kill more IS fighters and thereby weaken IS. Besides IS, Erdogan and the Turkish government will be singled out by western pundits and politicaians to carry the blame for the "genocide of the people in Kobane."

Aleppo front
In April 2015, a desperate effort of a new rebel group calling itself "The Sultan's army" - consisting of about 10.000 well-armed insurgents of all kinds - going via Bab Al-Hawa crossing, Idlib province and the southern countryside of Aleppo to break the "siege of Aleppo" from the southern side failed with desastrous losses for the attacking rebels. The rebels claim, instead of the expected Syrian army forces, they encountered surprisingly large and strong Iranian IRGC groups, and accuse the US of betrayal, because by bombing IS the US took pressure from the forces of Assad and the Iranians, and that was what led to the failure of this last rebel effort "to save Aleppo." After that the Syrian government in April 2015 manages to get reconciliation agreements with two so far rebel-held areas in the eastern part of Aleppo city that allows the Syrian army to deploy into these areas without much fighting. That cuts the rebel-held part of Aleppo effectively in three distinct and isolated pockets. The Western/GCC-backed FSA/IF/JaN rebels in the countryside north of Aleppo bordering Turkey were exterminated. Either they were killed, they defected or they fled the battlefield. All the northern Aleppo countryside bordering Turkey, they held for the last years, is, as of July 4, 2015, either controlled by IS, the Syrian army or Kurdish YPG in cooperation with the Syrian army. The focus of the Syrian army in north-western Syria has shifted from Aleppo to US-backed rebels in the countryside bordering Turkey to the west of Aleppo and Idlib province. As the Syrian army makes now slow but steady progresses in that area, by July 4, 2015 the battlefield situation in that area looks like that the Western/GCC-backed FSA/IF/JaN rebels in that areas face total extermination within the next 12 months, too. The official US strategy to use "rebels" as ground troops against IS and Assad is in a shambles. There are almost no "moderate rebels" left in Syria, and even these few, who still hold out, don't want to fight as ground troops of the US, last not least due to the US "betrayal" of the "Sultan's army" in the "crucial" battle to break the siege of Aleppo in April 2015. Turkey got known that YPG Kurds work not only with the Syrian army, but that the YPG are also supported by secret US special forces. In May 2015, Erdogan publicly calls out the US for secretely helping "Assad's YPG & PKK lackeys", thereby collaborating with "dictator Assad" and calls this "further proof" that the US conspires against Turkey and that the US - while publicly claiming a policy of regime change in Syria - secretely supports "Assad's genocide" of the people of Syria and Aleppo. The US denies "any US collaboration with terrorist groups like the PKK and their splinter groups", but many people in Syria and elsewhere - with the exception of most PKK/YPG supporters who accuse the US instead of having let them down when facing IS genocide - believe that the US indeed secretely collaborates with the YPG.

Turkish Front
Erdogan blames the coup attempt effectively on the US, calling it a "conspiracy led from the US against Turkey." While Erdogan's language is so, that it may well be understood that he means US-based cleric Gülen was behind the coup attempt, his accusation is vague enough to be also understood as blaming the US government. After Samantha Power expressed US government opposition to a UNSC resolution to condemn Turkey Ayatollah Khamenei publicly warns the US not to proceed with a resolution requiring Turkey to open it's bases and airspace for forces against IS, because Iran is fundamentally opposed in foreign meddling in the region and such strikes, anyway, would only serve as a cover for attacking Syrian government positions. Since the Obama administration and Ayatollah Khamenei to such a move, AIPAC sucessfully lobbies US Congress to ask the Obama administration to do exactly that: get done a UNSC resolution to obliege Turkey to open all it's airspace and bases for the anti-ISIS-coalition, in addition to increase funding, training and arming "moderate rebels" in Syria to overthrow Assad. Sec Kerry instructs Ambassador Power to take Russia at it's word and prepare such a UNSC resolution. Ms Power does that and, on May 5th, 2015, files a draft for vote in the UNSC, that requires to Turkey to open it's airspace and NATO military bases for use in the aerial combat of the ISIL terrorist group, threatening Sacntions under Chapter VII if Turkey does not abide. Russia keeps it's word and abstains. However the UN Security Resolution fails, because China, in a rare move, goes alone to veto it. The Chinese UN ambassador says after the vote, he got last minute instructions from Beijing to do so over grave concerns over the violation of the sovereinity of independent UN member countries affected by the resolution which would "contradict long-standing principles" of Chinese Foreign policy. Russian UN Amb Churkin after the vote offers the Turkish people the apologies of Russia, saying Russia wasn't happy with the motion against it's Turkish friends, but Russia had given her word not to veto the motion, and as Russia is a country abiding by her word, Russia didn't veto this "humiliating motion" against Turkey. The Obama administration blames the obstructionism of China for the failure, and asks Amb Power to resign, for her "lack of professionalism" in the preparation of the UN Security Resolution. Kerry explains, in difference to previous administrations, the Obama administration holds those, who fail, accounable for their failures. Turkish president Erdogan announces, later that evening, a historic speech to the people of Turkey for the next day. In that speech, Erdogan announces, that yesterday's vote in the UNSC finally uncovered, for all to see, the true nature of the great US-led conspiracy against the honor, the independence and souvereignity of Turkey. He declares the upcoming Parliament election in Turkey a referendum on Turkey's honor defended by the vanguard and savior of Turkish honor, the AKP, and declares, that after the AKP won this election, Turkey will leave NATO and close down all foreign bases in Turkey. After his speech, he demonstratively puts in front of TV the final sign under the long-range missile defense contract selecting the FD2000 from Chinese US-sanctioned company CPMIEC as supplier. IN the elections in June 2015, the AKP wins again.

Kurdish Front
After the loss of Kobane the Kurds understood that they need strong partners and can't go it alone, and in cooperation with the Syrian and Iraqi army, advised by the US staff, hold their ground. PKK fights with the Turkish army in southeast Turkey.

JUWTFME Activities
Rumors of US secret activities make it into various media. The US denies these rumors, but many people don't believe the US. IS accuses the US and their collaborateurs to wage a convert war against the muslims with such secret activities. As one of the Sunni Arab tribal allies of the US worked as a double agent of IS and blows himself up in a suicide attack against his US military handlers and the US casualities couldn't be hidden, the US government find it increasingly difficult to explain what it is doing. Protests in Jordan, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni countries in sympathy with IS occur, demanding the end of their government's collaboration with all "forces waging war against the Muslims" - meaning primarily the US.

Terrorism Front
Terrorist activities against GCC government targets and US targets in the region further increase.

Anbar front
IS controls Anbar completely, and though under US-led air strikes, IS implements state-like authorities there.

China front
Though some sporadic terrorist acts in the countryside of Urumqi occur, a very heavy presence of Chinese security forces from all provinces prevents the situation in Xinjiang to spiral out of control.

turcopolier

Bandolero

TC Input - The US has a long history of successful conduct of covert operations by both CIA and the mllitary that do not leak to the press. That is why you don't know about them. The reason for separating JUWTFME operations from other USSF activities (white ops - training advising, etc.) is specifically to shield such activities and make them deniable as possible obstacles to other policy driven activities. Casualties in such operations are concealed and not reported openly. Captured personnel cannot expect to be "ransomed." The press, and any and all media, are denied access to anyone in an activity like JUWTFME. Personnel assigned to such activities do not leak to the press or anyone else. I was assigned to an activity of this kind (USMACVSOG) that conducted operations for 11 years without ever being more that a rumor to the media or anyone else and we had 10,000 native troops and what amounted to our own air force. It was only long after the war that references to this unit began to appear in the media, fueled by the psycho fantasies of people who needed attention. The "tailwind" story fiasco stumbled into by CBS was one such. BTW, nothing in the CBS story was true except that the operation was in Laos. Your assumption that such an activity as JUWTFME would not be deniable is wrong. Regional statements by local players would simply be ignored and denied. pl

William Fitzgerald

TC REQUESTS
1. On15MAR evacuate the US Embassy. The Military Advisory Grp HQ and essential diplomats move to re-located Iraqi Government at Nasiriyah.
2. In late MAR make the following appointments:
Wesley Clark to National Security Advisor
Amb. Charles Freeman to Asst. Sec. of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
Colin Powell to Sec of State
Someone like W.P. Lang to DNI
3. On 27MAR convene a secret meeting between high level DOD and State Dept. officials with influential senior officers in the Turkish Army.
4. After consultations with the Hashemite Kingdom, move 1 Bde of the FR Foreign Legion to the vicinity of Azraq. Eta of the main body in mid-April.

WPFIII

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