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10 October 2014


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Dave Schuler

TC response - Do you have a specific request? Do you want a meeting with one or more of these parties? If you do you must come to the meetings with specific point or questions and be prepared to deal with the other party's points. pl


Request for TC input.

What is the probability of NGO staff and/or corporate executives/contractors working in the Ebola zone contracting Ebola and returning to US/EU countries without detection?

Have SF contacts with tribes in Iraq had further success? (in addition to the Al bu Nimr and Shamar previously reported on forecast 1b). Are similar contacts in other ME countries being established or already in place?



Stop mixing reality with the game world. STOP FIGHTING THE PROBLEM!!! pl



TC response - Ebola continues to kill in Africa and to spread panic in the Europe and the US. Public does not trust opinion of the medical community in this matter. They consider themselves to be sheep led to the slaughter with soothing words. The probability of undetected return of the infected is unknown. All the Sunni tribes who worked with US forces in the awakening will be contacted, developed and trained by JUWTFME. Jordanian Army SF is acting in this matter as part of JUWTFME. Similar efforts are underway in SA and Jordan. pl


The article in the Süddeutsche Zeitung noted "In Celle greifen Jesiden und Muslime die Polizei an, berichten lokale Medien.".

"In the city of Celle yesidis and muslims attacked police, local media report."


Question for TC:
Why would a French Battle group need to be stationed in Eastern Black Sea, resupply in Sebastopol, and create an unnecessary precedent for an exception to Monteux treaty? Or owe a favor to the Russians? Iskenderun and Ceyhan have port facilities in Southeastrn Turkey, and closer to Incirlik for supplies,and main Turkish Navy bases in Southern Turkish Coast. From there, it is a far shorter flight to Northern Syria and Iraq. Assuming Incirlik is operational for NATO by then, and Turkish Government is cooperating, as they would have to be in Monteux option.



Someone is trying to stop any cooperation...


Most citizens aren't going to panic about Ebola or any false flag attacks, no matter where they occur, and stop paying attention to what really needs to be done to stabilize the neocon screw up in the region.


Request for TC Input:

"All the Sunni tribes who worked with US forces in the awakening will be contacted, developed and trained by JUWTFME." Barring this input, I presumed such efforts were largely unsuccessful due to the lack of a government in Baghdad to align with. Is a replacement Iraqi Sunni government being formed in exile in Jordan? If so, is the US or other countries doing the formation.

Other than training, are the Sunni tribes breaking with IS at this point, or just receiving covert support?



TC response - In TC experience of UW with tribes, the issues of: tribal leadership, re-supply, finance and quality of SF leadership outweigh nationalist ideology. The tribes seek their own welfare and are willing to assume that some better political regime (for them) can be constructed. Better to wait to the end of the war before supporting a replacement government. Such a government is likely to be a nuisance, try to assert "national" sovereignty; Quezon, Darlan, Karzai, Maliki, etc. pl



The scenario exists to stimulate discussion as it has stimulated yours. your real world opinions are largely irrelevant to the game. pl

Ishmael Zechariah

1-Ebola outbreaks stall the global economy, ushering in a world-wide recession.
2-The Turkish economy takes a nose dive, causing significant unrest in the general population. This is exacerbated by a decrease in natural gas supplies from Russia, and a concurrent decrease in trade with Iran.
i-Turkish Economists tell the tayyiban that the Turkish Treasury cannot afford war.
ii-Violent Kurdish demonstrations in Turkey (molotov cocktails, looting, etc.) come under live fire from non-government entities, causing significant casualties.
iii-Separatist Kurds in southern, northern and western Turkey, in fear for their lives from the general population, start decamping.
iv-TSK tells the tayyipists to send their own kids to the front and refuses orders.
3-The "awakening" tribes cite the Kurdish role in Fallujah to decline any support for the Kurds, who have become the second most hated ethnicity in the ME.
4-The islamist cells in Europa, who have been supported until quite recently for "democratic ideals" repay their hosts by massive terror strikes.
5-A world-wide campaign is started to get Obama's Nobel Peace Prize rescinded.

Veritas diaboli manet in aeternum


Ishmael Zechariah

different clue

Diplomatic Front . . .
Someone must have brought extreme pressure to bear upon the Erdogists to force them to submit to grudging cooperation
with France and Russia. The Turkish armed forces are happier to cooperate, in part because this may strengthen their position politically a little in case of future power re-conquest struggles against the Erdogists. The Turkish Armed Forces may consider this important enough to contain their distaste for now with anything which helps Kurds. As they see more Kurds becoming anti-Erdogist over Erdogan's support for ISIS, they may wonder whether Turkey's Kurds may become useful fellow-travelers of convenience for a time in future power struggles against the Erdogist regime. So the Turkish Armed Forces will try to make this cooperation as fruitful, non-hostile, and non-grudging as they can in the teeth of Erdogan's efforts to keep the cooperation for "show", not for "real". The TAF will want to make the cooperation "real" enough that Russia and France seek a 6 month extension of the agreement.
The US accepts many insults and injuries from the Erdogist regime in hopes that keeping Turkey in NATO for longer and longer buys more time for Turkish Armed Forces to rebuild political power and link up with other counter-Erdogist forces to take the Erdogists down.
That the Syrian foreign minister would state IN PUBLIC his pleasure at American actions against ISIS indicates that he and his government feel America is committing itself aWAY from working to overthrow the SAG. The headchopping livereater opposition within Syria hears and sees this and begins losing some heart. Some start losing their taste for head chops and liver and begin feelering for how to approach the SAG.
The Saudi bedouin kidnapping is accepted as genuine and not US or Israeli false flag due to unlikeliness of US desire or Israel ability to find false-flaggers with authentic Saudi bedouin accents and knowledge of getting around in Najd needed to do this. KSAgov refuses to try rescue out of fear of being unable to do it and losing face in public. They fear their whole regime might look like a House of Glass Cards ready to crumble, shatter and fall if they are seen to lose that rescue-battle with their own internal ISIStas.
When Obama hears McConnell say "oppose Islamic terrorism and especially ISIS or else" . . . Obama has enough sly cunning to note that McConnell says noting about opposing Assad. Syrian "regime change" has quietly crept off the table and has become the dog that isn't barking. That large group of Republican Senators is willing to isolate McCain and de-support his ever shriller demands to focus on Assad.
As Americans see the DC Government do precisely nothing to quarantine Ebolastan till the epidemic burns itself all the way out, more Americans begin to feel towards "Washington" the way more Kurds begin feeling towards Erdogan. As India, China, and others join East Africa in banning travel to or from Ebolastan, American supporters of such a quarantine gain loudness and exposure in the debate over quarantine. It becomes harder for the Government spokesfolk and race-card players to claim quarantine is racist when everyone can see East Africa, China, India, etc. imposing such quarantine. (Would such quarantine mean that our American soldiers in Ebolastan also can't come back till the epidemic is burned all the way out? Unless the ebola treatment infrastructure in the three Plague Countries is made so good and thorough that American politicians would be willing to go TO them to get treated for ebola, the armed forces won't stand for such a "you-stay-right-there" quarantine extended to American soldiers).
KAR front . . .
This much airfield support for US aircraft signals that Iran, Russia, etc. constructively support American air operations strictly against ISIS. Yet more indication that overthrowing Assad is now off America's table.
November 5th and Kobani is STILL 10% UNconquered? The Kobani Kurds understand that the US means well and really tries. The Kobani Kurds know very well the difficulties all derive from Ergogan's embargo against other Kurds joining the battle to begin with. All the other Kurds know it very well too. Even if ISIS can take that last 10%, the Kurdish defense of Kobani will echo down the halls of memory along with the Alamo and Xenophon and give epic inspiration to the Kurds for a long time.
ISIS gets irritated and frustrated about spending so much effort against Kurdistan when there is easier meat and money to be conquered in other directions. They and their Baathist allies begin holding serious conversations about what the long range vision is and isn't.
Large numbers of Shia are leaving West Baghdad? If those weapons-caches were Shia caches, would the Shia just leave them behind? If they are pre-positioned ISIS caches, who is revealing them to the police and why? Are some of the urban and urbane Sunnis of West Baghdad unwilling to cooperate in an ISIS conquest of West Baghdad, even if they are afraid to oppose it overtly? Who gets the arms once the police discover them?
Someone was able to insert a small sharp bamboo sliver just a little way up under the CIA's pinkie-fingernail and CIA accepts it has lost this particular turf battle for now. The various ABCALCs (Acronym-Bearing Command And Leadership Centers) work very well together and achieve what they set out to achieve within the imposed limits of political permission.



I think this would send a message to the Ukrainians (both sides), the backers of the coup government both in the US and EU. Given the potential for civil unrest in Turkey (as noted in the scenario) the risk of violence against Coalition personnel on R&R in Turkish ports is high. There is also the chance of IS sympathizers within the Turkish Navy or AF taking action against French ships in port (or at sea). This could include something like the attack on the USS Cole or use of torpedos, anti-ship missiles, or bombs from a patrol boat or an aircraft. During the Falklands War a number of Royal Navy ships were sunk or damaged by both Exocets and bombs. Does the Coalition still consider Turkish aircraft IFF as friendly?


Different Clue:

When a people lose everything (Kobani) with 100% ethnic cleansing, they have two choices, blame others or accept responsibility (for their fate). My read of human nature is that in such circumstances, Kurdish leaders will blame everyone, including the US.


The Maliki Government asks for American ground troops to defend Baghdad:


The negative response triggers a "sauve qui peut" response among Shia politicians. Who besiege the American embassy asking for American Visas, multiple ISIS suicide bombers target the queues of waiting Iraqis. Suicide bombers also target the Baghdad bridges, creating log jams as Shia Iraqis attempt to flee East.

In Washington, London, Ottowa, Paris, Berlin and Canberra the shrill pleas from the "responsibility to protect" advocates regarding the "humanitarian disaster" are echoed through the Murdoch press, only to be met with stony silence.

It is a German commentator who launches the first Jeremiad against the R2P NeoCon worldview under the headline: "wenn Sie in einem Loch sind, ist es am besten, hör auf zu graben" (when in a hole, stop digging) that echoes throughout the West. Voters begin to reflect on exactly who has gotten them into this current situation.

In Australia there is no electoral support for additional military action in the Middle East and the Left continue demonstrations exhorting the Government to bring our forces home. Demonstrations continue outside Army bases while at the same time random attacks against mosques and identifiably Muslim women intensify.



james jordan

Ebola spread by a religious fanatic ... its not much different from the scenario envisaged by the BBC with smallpox (especially if ebola goes airborne). https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2wJouUfdY0M sorry I cannot find the full version when the culprit is revealed at the end


You're correct. My bad.


I am fighting the problem? ...

Aye, aye Sir!


My turn - Forecast to 1 March 2015

Diplomatic Front
Russia, Iran and Syria will politely express verbal opposition to the US-led campaign against IS in Syria, while at the same time hinting that they are fine with it, as long as such strikes are coordinated with the Iraqi government and targets are only ISIS, Jabhat Al Nusra and similar groups linked to Al Qaeda, but targets in no way the Syrian army. In January 2015, Alexey Pushkov, chairman of the Russian State Duma Foreign Affairs Committee, jokes on Twitter, that "Russia did also permit the US" to strike the "Islamic Front and the FSA, but for some reasons unknown to him the US didn't make use of that Russian permission to strike these terrorist groups in Syria, yet." The GCC countries take that Tweet as an excuse to stop any military cooperation with the US in the US-led campaign against IS. Australia and Canada offer to fill the marginal void in military terms, but Jordan is the only arab country left to give the US bombing campaign against IS an "arab cover."

Putin reprimands Pushkov for that "stupid Twitter joke", but the atmosphere between the US and Russia is seriously poisened and therefore no major diplomacy breakthroughs regarding Syria occur. But, on the Iranian front, a G5+1 deal with Iran regarding the Iranian "nuclear problem" is cut, albeit some days behind the deadline in December. While the POTUS Obama, EU, Russia and China are fine with the deal, Netanyahu is very angry about it. The Republican US Congress announces it will not remove any sanctions from Iran to legitimize this scam deal and announces legislation with new sanctions on Iran. Obama declares he has to abide by Congress decisions, but he will do what is in his authority to abide by the deal. It boils down to that Obama uses his authority as POTUS to agree to remove the UN Security Council sanctions against Iran. Iran makes a bit noise but essentially agrees to the deal in this form. China and Russia declare to ignore any US secondary sanctions against Iran and threaten to file WTO complaints against the US if it applies them. As the sanctions of the US Congress are partly secondary sanctions against Iranian business partners, and the EU countries are due to a lack of growth very eager to close new deals with Iran to counter the fallout of their sanctions against Russia, the situation leads to high tensions between the US and the EU. The EU threatens the US with counter sanctions if the US follows through with secondary sanctions against EU business interest due to business with Iran. In the US, decisions to place foreign companies under sanctions due to their business with Iran, are deferred.

Meanwhile, in a geopolitically more important development than anything the Middle East offers, Aecio Neves, the US backed surprise winner in Brazils recent presidential election against incumbent Dilma Rousseff, who was, after he won the election, widely expected to take the B away from BRICS, is seriously frustrated by "a lack of interest of the US in Latin America" and turns to China to get some investments to stimulate the flailing Brazilian economy. Hardly anybody in the US takes notice of this.

Terrorist Front

In the beginning of the year 2015 it becomes public knowledge that IS has got a serious presence in Daraa and Quneitra provinces of Syria bordering Jordan and Israeli-controlled Golan heights. Israel announces, it can't explain how the terrorists came in control of these positions, that this it is further proof that most Muslims are extremists, the problem should be dealt with by someone, but, as Israel's security isn't concerned by this, Israel will stay out of the fray. Jordan's king Playstation announces, last not least in reactions to the kidnappings in October/November 2014, after consulting with Israel and the US, that Jordan will fight the ISIS terrorist "to the last man", and regularly flies, in cooperation with the US, bombing missions against, what it believes, are IS targets in the Syrian Daraa province. IS and the Nusra front declare war on Jordan's king because he is waging "a war on the muslims." Despite hevay repression, demonstrations in favour of IS and the Nusra Front occur in many Jordan towns. Suicide bomb attacks in Jordan by IS supporters become regurlar events. In Saudi Arabia, there also occur some signs of sympathy for IS, but not many bomb attacks, because Saudi Arabia pulled back from supporting the US-led effort against IS in Iraq and Syria, and Saudi Arabia did nothing to confront kidnappers of western hostages. Saudi Arabia comes under increased diplomatic pressure from some Western countries for "not doing enough to contront terrorism."

Regarding the terrorist plot prevented in Hamburg, the German Interior ministry will give a statement, declaring, that last not least due to good international cooperation the German police has prevented a horrendous materialization of the dangers present in the totalitarian ideologies of Commusmism, Islamism and Nazism - in that order. Later in the day chancellor Merkel will annouce that she sucessfully opened the doors to negotiations with the Communist Party of China, that were fruitful to let Volkswagen built two new car factories in China and thereby save 2000 VW jobs in Germany for the near future. The German public will react in opinion polls by a 2% increase in the popularity of the German government due to it's further proven "competence in affairs of security and economics."

Political Front
Obama will react to demands of Congress of being tougher against IS by deploying more ships, jets and cruise missiles into the theater and let them fire more of what they have. As the target information didn't improve in the same way as the strike capability, the range of targets was increased and includes more and more targets of Jabhat AL Nusra in Syria. More of the bombing raids and cruise missile attacks hit empty buildings, civilians and allies of the FSA, but the US firepower used to engaged the IS terrorists is very impressive. The US public and Congress are quite satisfied with that show of US power and discusses steps to further the effectivity of the use of US power in the region. Some members of Congress demand that Obama also gives order to target the Syrian army, but Obama doesn't give in to that, knowing that Iran and Russia would retaliate if he did so.

Regarding Ebola, many defense experts discuss how making more usage of the military can be seen as helping to contain the growing threat of Ebola. However, as no country wants to risk the life and health of it's military medics in a battle with no obvious geopolitical gains looming, the discussions remain inconclusive.

Kobane Front
Kobane falls to IS by mid November, the western public is shocked and demands more bombings against IS. The US does more bombings in Iraq and Syria, but they are poorly targeted. The EU countries do some bombings in Iraq, but are continiued to be afraid of a serious confrontation with Russia if they fly bombing raids in Syria. Instead, they demand a UN Security Resolution for bombing IS in Syria, which doesn't come forward because Russia and China threaten to veto it in any way that would be acceptable for the EU countries. The European left will blame the US for bombing IS in Syria without having a proper UNSC authorization to do that.

After Kobane fell to IS in November, IS will move on to the east, smoke up the FSA/IF front in Marea north of Aleppo and threaten the northwestern Kurdish enclave of Afrin. As of March 2015, IS didn't conquer Afrin yet, but Afrin is under heavy pressure from IS. There will be international outrage that someone shall do something against the fall of Afrin and IS-made genocide there. As the Syrian army will have connected Handart and Nubol in the meantime and therefore has a supply line to Afrin by then, the Syrian army will in cooperation with the Hezbollah and IRGC forces stationed in Nubol save Afrin from the IS onslaught. The YPG and the western public will have long discussions whether it was a good thing for the Kurdish people of Afrin to be saved by the Syrian army and Hezbollah. there will be some crazies saying it would have been better for the Kurds of Afrin to have been slaughtered by IS then to be protected from IS by the Syrian army, Hezbollah and the IRGC, but all in all the discussions remain unconclusive.

Anbar Front
By March 2015 IS controls all of Anbar, but Baghdad is sucessfully defended by a mixture of the Iraqi army, IRGC and Shia militia. As IS controls all of Anbar including all the borders with Jordan and the Saudis, the rulers of these countries are very scared and increase security levels.

Baghdad front
BIA is not operable anymore, but Iran supplies the forces defending Baghdad via overland routes. The area of Baghdad west of the Tigris which were left by Shia are populated by Shia radicals found in Karbala. Sunnis are frightened and Wahhbia leaders claim ethnic cleansing of these regions. The western public is outraged about this proof of evil sectarianism of the Shias.


Under intense public pressure after the Nov 2 beheading of Kurds outside Korbani and the devastating election results of November 4, Pres. Obama issue a last minute order for an airdrop of supplies to Kurd fighters in Syria. An American transport plane is shot down by an IS launched surface to air missile. The plane crashes near the Turkish border and all crew killed. On November 9 the New York Times releases a transcript of an intercepted phone call from a Turkish government source alerting local IS commanders of the time and place of the parachute resupply drop. Korbani is fully overrun by mid-November and declared the Kurdish Alamo by Fox News. Captured female Kurd fighters are barbarically treated by IS. American public opinion shifts almost over night toward recognition of Kurdish independence and against Erdogan. Riots in Turkey are viciously repressed and a full internet blackout is announced in Turkey.

Ishmael Zechariah


One does not have to be an ISIS supporter to detest the French government and its policies.

There are very, very few, if any, Daash supporters among officers and non-coms of all TSK branches.

We are not too fond of separatist Kurds either, or of the tayyip and his bunch of kleptocrats.

Ishmael Zechariah


Terrorist front:

Attacks on NGO aid organizations in Western African countries of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia including a car bomb attack at a Médecins Sans Frontières facility. US troops stop truck bomb attack on their facility. Terrorists claim Western aid groups are spreading Ebola to attack Muslims. Local politicians begin denouncing the US and EU for using their people as laboratory guinea pigs for the testing new drugs. In January a major pharmaceutical company announces record profits for 2014.

Syrian front.
Syrian Army continues fight against IS and returned jihadists in Aleppo. The ongoing coalition air strikes serve to assist these actions. Russia supplies additional helicopter assets to the Assad regime.

Baghdad front.
Multiple car bombings in Shia areas of Baghdad as well as Karbala precede IS attempts to capture BIA and Green Zone.

Anbar front.
Efforts for a new 'awakening' bring in new intelligence allowing improved though limited airstrikes on IS targets. IS continues consolidation efforts.

Eastern Iraq.
Pesh Merga capabilities increase with Iranian assistance and US supplies. Limited attacks by IS in region.

Political Front

IS funds from oil sales continue even with increased efforts to curtail this by both military action and restrictions on the international banking sector. Civil unrest continues in Turkey. Erdogan government continues to deny use of air bases for operations against IS in Syria and Iraq.

US Civil rights groups denounce the racial profiling of Africans over the Ebola scare.
A student from Liberia attending UC Berkley is hospitalized with ebola and dies. Multiple students become sick and are hospitalized. Doctors provide experimental drugs only to "select" patients due to limited supply. University officials defend these actions. State politicians are besieged by thousands of outraged parents. Fear spreads across college campuses. Other Universities nationwide are flooded with calls from worried parents and legislators demanding an end to liberal enrollment policies that endanger their children's lives. Resort communities in Florida and Texas are fearful of the impact of an "Ebola Spring Break".

Leaked TSA documents reveal the existence of an "Ebola List". List includes all service members assigned to units that had been in both Liberia and Iraq as well as the staff of many evangelical Christian aid groups working in the region; also included are a number of congressman and congressional staff. No State Department officials or employees are on this list. House Homeland Security Committee Chairman McCaul demands an explanation from the Administration on how these details were obtained and why. Secretary Johnson refuses to provide details claiming executive privilege.

Veterans groups denounce Obama administration over the outrageous treatment of service members he ordered into foreign countries for "humanitarian" efforts. Media groups excoriate government actions.


One correction.

I wrote:

"After Kobane fell to IS in November, IS will move on to the east, "

But I wanted to write:

"After Kobane fell to IS in November, IS will move on to the west, "

Sorry for confusing left and right. The locations I named is what I meant.


In Lebanon clashes between Hezbollah and Sunnis increase significantly. The ISIL headchoppers have made recruiting gains among the disaffected in Lebanon due to their advances in Syria and Iraq. Several civilian Shiites are beheaded including a cleric. That plus car bombs and suicide bombers are having an effect on Hezbollah and cause them to pullback some of their “volunteers” from Syria.

With the capture of most of Kobani, ISIS reinforcements start to flow to their forces in and near Manbij and Al-Bab. These reinforcements (and resupply) come from Al-Raqqah in a plan to build up a force capable of taking on SAA outposts near Aleppo. They also attack isolated FSA enclaves in this area. This squeezes those FSA groups between Assad’s barrel bombs and ISIS truck bombs. France and Turkey declare a limited no-fly-zone over FSA enclaves with complicit US assistance.

YPG units from the Syrian Kurdish Canton of Cizire overrun ISIS forces in Tal Abyad. They are armed and resupplied by PKK elements in Iraqi Kurdistan with support from PUK faction of Iraqi Peshmerga. Elements of the KRG faction of Iraqi Peshmerga aid this effort but only surreptitiously in order not to damage KRG/Turkish relations.

In the Mosul area Peshmerga advance and take the majority of the east bank aided by US advisers and TACC and the Nabi Yunis Brigade 5th column inside Mosul. Sinjar is retaken from ISIS by Peshmerga and their Yezidi recruits. Peshmerga advance on Tal-Afar from the west.

ISIS in Jalalawla is finally starved out by the siege and stages a last ditch break which fails. The majority of Diyala Province is now quiet. Credit for this strategy is given to former Iranian Quds Force Commander Soleimani. However it is suspected that ISIS in Diyala is not defeated, but just gone to a low profile rebuilding effort. ISIS elements in Kirkuk Province are also quiet. But there is an increase in firefights between Peshmerga and Shia militias there. This causes increased friction between Baghdad and Erbil.

Large swaths of Salahuddin and Anbar provinces remain under ISIS control.

Car bombs and suicide bombers continue in Baghdad. Many civilians abandon the city But Shia militias resume their 'interrogations-by-electric-drill' and take out a major ISIS bombmaking cell. US Air and Army helos destroy several ISIS artillery pieces threatening BIA but lose at least one Apache to a AAA/MANPAD trap. Several more IQAF MI-17s are also shot down.

alba etie

TC Control Request ( hope I am not past deadline been out working Austin City Limits Festival -)
Request that the former leaders of the Anbar Awakening pre Maliki meet with the Nasdhqbandi Leader al Douri , and all former SF officers that worked with the Anbar Sheiks to defeat AQI and kill Zawhari - to discuss terms for a political solution to the IS Caliphate attempt.
The meeting could measure how wedded the Nasdhqbandi Brother is to al Baghdadi, and what it would take to have the Baathist military cadre disavow Daash/IS . Further request that the SAR, Iran , Russia and Kurdish representatives also be present as observers to the meeting between the al Anbar tribal leaders , former SF officers that helped defeat AQI and kill Zawhari & Leader al Douri - The observers would be there as support for a transparent political solution to 'degrading & destroying" the liver eaters et al . This meeting assumes that all attendees see IS as a 'clear & present danger' and will come to this meeting with that in mind.

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