Situation as of 5 November 2014
Diplomatic Front
Russia, France and Turkey have agreed to a one time exception to the Montreux Convention to allow positioning of the French Navy De Gaulle carrier battle group in the eastern Black sea for the purpose of air operations against IS in Iraq. France does not want to participate in Syrian operations. France does not want to lured into overflying Syria. Turkey will allow overflight of eastern Anatolia to and from Iraq. Turkey will also allow forward positioning of French naval SAR at Batman and emergency landings at Batman, Mus and Erzurum as necessary. Russia has offered the French battle group port privileges at Sebastopol for ship chandler and re-fueling operations. France has yet to respond to this offer.
Turkey continues to deny the US the use of its airbases for offensive operations in either Syria or Iraq. Turkey seems to believe that it has enough leverage over US to force US ground participation in decisive campaign against the Syrian government as well as in establishment of a "no fly zone" in Syria that would inevitably result in direct combat between US and Syrian air forces.
Iranian assisted Pesh Merga forces in eastern Iraq continue to receive US air support. This unacknowledged cooperation between Iran and the US is effective.
Syria's foreign minister stated once again on 1 November that Syria is pleased with US intervention against IS forces and positions. Syrian and US aircraft are carefully avoiding each other by mutual consent.
Terrorist Front
In Jordan, IS sympathisers attacked and killed two American tourists at Petra on the 20th of October. Three French tourists were kidnapped on 25 October from the vicinity of one of the Ummayad hunting lodges in the eastern desert near Azraq air base. The kidnappers were Saudi beduin who took the French back across the border into the northern Najd where they have posted Utube videos demanding multi-million Euro ransoms for each one. They state that if their demands are not met they will begin beheading the captives in the name of the Caliph Ibrahim. The Saudi government has made no effort to rescue these people.
German police have apprehended an Al-Qaida affiliate cell in Hamburg. The group was well advance in planning a bombing attack against the NATO headquarters in Brussels.
Political Front
The US mid-term election resulted in Republican gains in the House of Representatives and control of the senate by the GOP 53-47. On 5 November, Senator McConnell, the presumptive next majority leader, demanded that President Obama take firm and decisive action against Islamic terrorism and IS in particular or face decisive action with regard to failure to "defend the United States." A large group of Republican senators voiced immediate agreement. Washington is overflowing with media hyped rumors that Obama is about to seek a new civilian national security team.
By 5 November a dozen new Ebola cases had appeared in the US causing a serious distraction from foreign affairs. Many more had appeared by then in Europe. Media personalities excoriated public health officials on both continents. In west Africa the first cases of US military personnel displaying signs of what might be Ebola had appeared by 5 November.
President Obama had not, by 5 November, authorised a US ground presence in Iraq or Syria other than as operations advisers, trainers and guard for the embassy in Baghdad. As a result the nearest US ground combat units were in Kuwait and Jordan.
Kobane Front
By 5 November IS had taken 90% of the town, in spite of the large number of coalition air strikes, many of them flown, at Kurdish request, by US heavy bombers against targets inside Kobane. These had failed to halt IS' advance but killed many Kurdish defenders and destroyed much of the city. On the 2nd of November IS brought a hundred Kurdish prisoners to the Turkish border where they were executed for the TV cameras. This was staged for network news. In the fighting for Kobane throughout the latter half of October the IS used suicide truck bombers as part of their attack fire plans, rolling the trucks forward through their infantry lines to detonate them just before assaults.
Aleppo Front
More and more IS fighters have returned to the Aleppo area for the purpose of trying to stop the Syrian Army's finalization of the encirclement of the old city. US air activity has followed them and as a result, US aircraft are now (5 November) flying missions against ground targets presently engaged by the Syrian Army.
KAR front.
US aircraft are now operating from several KAR airfields. Erbil, Suleimaniya, etc. USArmy's first SFGA is present in increasing numbers in the KAR. They are returning to the region with many of the people who were instrumental in the "awakening." Contacts are being re-established and these SF soldiers are returning to the tribal areas behind IS lines. Most of 1 SFGA are engaged as adviser/trainers with the Pesh Merga.
Anbar Front
Nearly all of Anbar Province was in IS hands by 5 November. Captured M198 155 mm. howitzers have been emplaced in camouflaged singleton positions within range of BIA. "Searching fire" against the airport began in late October. Two HE shells landed on the apron in front of the passenger terminal on the 25th. The dozen airlines that had been operating through BIA then "suspended' operations until safety could be assured. In the last week of October, IS artillery fire against the airport improved in accuracy. The reason for this was revealed when several airport employees were arrested by the secret police and charged with spotting for IS artillery and reporting by cell phone. These arrests were followed the next night by a ground suicide bomber attack on aviation fuel stores at the airport. It had been hoped that the provision of counter-battery radar to Iraqi Army artillery would enable them to suppress IS artillery, but, in the event, Iraqi Army artillery commanders have declined to advance to firing positions from which they could be effective. IS sympathisers in the area report Iraqi Army firing positions by cell phone and the resulting fire is more than than the Iraqi Army want to experience.
Baghdad Front
Large numbers of Shia have begun to leave the area of Baghdad west of the Tigris. More and more arms caches in that part of the city are being discovered by the police.
----------------
Based on this statement of the situation as of 5 November- 2014, forecast your views as to what is likely to occur between 5 Nomber, 2014 and 1 March 20.
Real world time for inputs for this turn will expire at 1600 GMT, 12 October 2014.
DO NOT FIGHT THE PROBLEM. The game is intended to be a pedagogic tool for sharpening our understaning of outstanding issues. IT IS NOT intended to be predictive of the future. pl
Request for TC Input
Regarding Aleppo, given is: "More and more IS fighters have returned to the Aleppo area for the purpose of trying to stop the Syrian Army's finalization of the encirclement of the old city"
As real life situation currently appears to look like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cities_and_towns_during_the_Syrian_civil_war
it's not clear to me where IS will be in the Aleppo area by Nov 5, how did they go there, and who are their allies there and where are the IS lines of communication.
Could TC give further explanation of where exactly IS are located in "the Aleppo area" by Nov 5, how did they get there and where, if any, IS ammo supply etc from these IS in the Aleppo area are going to their main forward bases in Raqqa etc?
Did IS by Nov 5 go back into Aleppo city? If so, how? Have rebels north of Aleppo - eg FSA/IF Tawheed, who hold the relevant ground to go into rebel held Aleppo city parts - joined IS? Or did IS battle the FSA/IF Tawheed in front of he Syrian army positions to gain that ground? If so, how has the Syrian army reacted? Or did IS smash through Syrian army held territory east of Aleppo? Or shall in "the Aleppo area" just mean, that IS by Nov 5 attacks Syrian army positions east of Aleppo from outside of the Syrian army's ring around Aleppo?
I have find it hard to see any way IS can return to the Aleppo area for the purpose of trying to stop the Syrian Army's finalization of the encirclement of the old city by Nov 5 other than by the means of deus ex machina. Could TC elaborate further on this?
Posted by: Bandolero | 10 October 2014 at 06:24 PM
Bandolero
Movement is by infiltration in small groups. Ludendorff and Giap would have approved. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 10 October 2014 at 07:32 PM
The French quickly run out of money, as they did in Mali. They ask for financing from the international community, but little is forthcoming. Rather than stop the air missions, Hollande asks for big budget cuts. This stokes huge protests across France, threatening Hollande's ability to finish his term.
Since their was no "October Surprise" attack on Azraq or King Playstation, an attack does occur in early November. No one of any significance gets hurt. No one claims responsibility, fueling suspicion that Israel and/or the US had staged a "false flag" attack to convince the Saudi royal family that their lives are in danger and the American public of the seriousness of the ISIS threat. In response, the Saudi Air Force bombs Houthi positions in Sanaa, Yemen. (Go figure!) Iraqi refugees in Syria are placed under suspicion, rounded up and put into camps.
Ebola cases begin to appear among West African emigrant populations in Morocco, Tunisia, Libya and Istanbul. A few emmigrants make it to Spain and Italy and bring Ebola with them, fueling anti-immigrant anger and threatening cross-Medirranean commerce. The cases in Istanbul, an unusual immigrant destination, fuel speculation about whether they were "plants," designed to distract Erdogan from problems in Iraq and Syria. Tourism, a major source of Turkish income, totally dries up, bringing the country close to bankruptcy.
Conflict in Lebanon heats up. The press is reluctant to call it civil war, but Tripoli, South Beirut, and the Bekaa become separate enclaves with the Lebanese military afraid to intervene to assert government authority.
The election past, Obama announces an agreement with Iran over the nuclear issue. This paves the way for increased trade and investment by the EU in Iran, stronger diplomatic ties, and a more overt cooperation in dealing with ISIS.
Posted by: JohnH | 10 October 2014 at 07:49 PM
Baghdad Front:
An eerie calm descends over the city as the fighting over the next month seems focused more in Syria and the Kurdish areas as ISIS looks to consolidate control. That clam is shattered, however on Thanksgiving when ISIS and Shiite sympathizers launch a series of suicide attacks in the city, targeting the Green Zone and other spots like hotels where Westerners frequent. Although most of those against the military sites and governmental buildings are thwarted, some get through due to the lowering of defenses for the holiday and insider help. 47 people perish when the main hotel is bombed with another 100+ wounded.
At the same time, ISIS launches a wave of attacks against BIA and the airport comes under heavy artillery files, preventing reinforcements from being flown in. The US military has no choice but to redirect the air campaign in a desperate last ditch effort to keep it from being overwhelmed, but after fighting for a couple of days, Iraqi army troops fall apart and abandon the airport.
Obama is forced to committed a brigade of troops in early December to keep the land route open for evacuation to Kuwait, resisting calls from Republicans to send in a massive force to try and reoccupy the country. A deal is cut with Iran to keep Shia militias at bay while the evacuation occurs.
Although the right call, Obama's legacy is tarnished by the images evoking Saigon '75 and as the President who lost Iraq.
Posted by: Vanasek | 10 October 2014 at 08:58 PM
On the terrorism front-
The winter of 2014/15 sees the first biological warfare suicide attacks, as Islamist suicide squads deliberately expose themselves with ebola in Nigeria, and travel through Spain on easily falsified documents. From there they travel throughout the European rail system in an effort that infect as many as possible in as many countries as possible. Infections are actually relatively low considering the intent, and contained by a vigorous and very cooperative response by WHO and national health organizations. Although the resulting casualties number no more than a few dozen out of nearly a hundred infected, the impact on the European and global economy and the impact on societal views of security and freedom to travel are on the same order of magnitude as 9/11.
Posted by: herb | 10 October 2014 at 11:30 PM
Request for TC input.
CENTCOM, JSOC and the IC jointly request Presidential authority to provide covert military support to the PKK and YPG to ensure these forces are armed and supplied to continue operations against IS. Support will include SF trainers/advisors. Implementation of this plan will not be acknowledged.
Risk vs. gain: Both Turkey and Iraq would strenuously object to any direct support to either the PKK or YPG. Acknowledgement or revelation of our support to these groups could stop any Turkish support to the fight against IS. However, the PKK and YPG forces have proved to be the most motivated and competent fighters against IS. They have also proved they can work with the Peshmerga and the FSA. The addition of better equipped and supported PKK and YPG units fighting the Is on their northern flank would outweigh the loss of Turkey’s rather halfhearted and ineffective support.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 11 October 2014 at 12:33 AM
Russian naval build up in the Mediterranean & Caspian,
aircraft carrier & nuclear sub. U.S. also has naval build up in proximity. Situation is high alert.
Bagdad under sporadic ISIS attacks being defended primarily by Iranian ground forces. Bagdad airport severely damaged.
ISIS spies have been executed.
Ebola epidemic continues. Moderate Tunisians hold their own against Salifes, although it is touch & go. Aleppo decimated by Syrian army. Damascus hit by suicide attacks.
Obama's 5,000 "Free Syrian Army" completes training in S.A.
Russian economy in trouble, ditto U.S. England & France, Spain, Greece.
Posted by: elaine | 11 October 2014 at 03:27 AM
US Political Front:
President Obama is further retreating in to his bubble. He does not want to get seriously involved in another middle eastern war (for what ever reason. Whether there is a actual need or not). US government actions are largely symbolic. Obama refuses to allow US air campaign to expand significantly.
Population is largely distracted over Ebola with new cases is US and Europe (However it has not gone to the level of a pandemic). There are large number Ebola cases in Nigeria and it has now spread to India (though Liberia and Nigeria).
Kobane front no longer exists as of March. ISIS has fully captured it, has carried out the executions and now a part of ISIS territory.
In the Aleppo front the SAA (Syrian army) has fully encircled the city and is laying siege to it. So far opposition attempts to break the siege has resulted in failure. SAA has not tried to take the city and is hoping to play the Homs scenario in Aleppo.
US aid the KAR has incresed significantly and the Kurds have successfully repulsed several incursions by the ISIS. Kurds are now on the offensive to re-take some of the Kurdish "territory" lost to ISIS in Iraq (with US support).
BIA is no longer doing to role of a civilian air port. Flights have ceased and artillery attacks are not uncommon. There seems to be a strong presence of ISIS spotters.
Large ISIS attacks has captured significant amounts of Iraqi military hardware and prisoners. ISIS is using some Iraqi prisoners as slaves for their military activities (maintenance of equipment). ISIS has still not made its move in to Baghdad but is moving in to towns in south of baghdad (quietly encircling the city). Iraqi government is secretly considering shifting its location (like in Libya) in the near future.
Terrorist Front
More and more public demonstration of support of ISIS in Jordan while the number of attacks inside Jordan is increasing.
First ever suicide bombing (after years) inside Saudi Arabia has occurred targeting foreigners (Christians) and a member of the saudi royal family who has resided in europe for years.
Posted by: Aka | 11 October 2014 at 06:49 AM
Terrorist Front
Reacting to ISIS assault on Kobani, street riots erupted in Celle, Hamburg, Stuttgart between Kurds and Islamists in the vicinity of local losques in which participants brought iron bars, machetes and knifes. Riot police used tear gas to separate the factions.
Tensions remained, and subsequently more riots took, finally involving fatalities. An Islamist imam and a few followers were killed, a dozen Kurdish protesters, and three policemen. Scores more were wounded.
A few days later an islamist mosque in Hamburg was firebombed and an attempted attack on a Turkish consulate near Cologne failed, when molotov cocktails failed to penetrate the barred windows and burned off outside the building, causing only minor damage.
A week later Kurdish cultural center in Munich was blown up by a car bomb, killing 5, wounding 31 and causing substantial property damage to the building. An Islamist group calling itself the 'Abd-ar-Rahman brigade' claimed responsibility in a youtube video.
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/politik/proteste-gegen-is-messerstecherei-zwischen-kurden-und-islamisten-in-hamburg-1.2164057
Diplomatic Front
Erdogan demanded in harsh terms that Germany better protect Turkish institutions. German authorities increased police presence around Turkish consulates and the embassy.
Merkel sharply criticised Erdogan, suggesting collusion between Turkey and ISIS and demanded that Turkey acts against ISIS and protects the Kurds. German politicians expressed disgust at Turkey 'exporting it's self-created domestic problems, and then making demands on the host'.
Erdogan scolded Merkel and Germany for 'arrogant meddling in Turkey's internal affairs'.
Turkey
In Turkey proper, massive riots between Kurds, Islamists and Turkish security police erupted. Turkish authorities cracked down violently. Eventually a number of Kurds at Kurdish gatherings in support of the defenders and refugees of Kobane were killed in terrorist bombings.
In the following weeks it came to terrorists attacks against Islamist mosques and Turkish police stations, resulting in stronger and stronger calls on Erdogan to do something 'on the Kurdish question'.
KAR front
The Turkish army finally received orders from Erdogan to enter into Syria and northern Iraq.
They attack Kurdish areas and Kurdish forces, effectively supporting ISIS strategic goals, with ISIS and Turkish forces converging from north and ISIS from west and south, first on Irbil, then on Kirkuk and Sulaimania, in which subsequently the defenders are encircled and put under siege. The Turkish army cuts off these cities, and leaves much of the urban fighting in eliminating the pockets to ISIS.
Aleppo and Baghdad Fronts
With their back secured ISIS then concentrates on operations against Aleppo and Baghdad.
Posted by: confusedponderer | 11 October 2014 at 07:16 AM
Addendum:
With Erdogan ordering the Turkissh armend forces to attack Kurds in northern Syria and nothern Iraq, he declares a no fly zone over these areas, attacking Syrian aircraft, and obstructing NATO flights.
Turkish air force flies attacks in effective support of ISIS.
Major tensions between Turkey and her NATO allies ensue. Tensions escalate as Turkish F16 attack a Pershmerga unit using US supplied JDAM, killing five American advisors.
Posted by: confusedponderer | 11 October 2014 at 07:29 AM
Request for TC Input,
Tacit cooperation between Iran and US in support of Pesh Merga forces is effective
Please define effective. Effective at allowing Pesh Merga to maintain control over their territory, effective at US and Iranian support does not lead to US-Iran conflict, but Pesh Merga lost territory. or Pesh Merga expand their area of influence?
Second, have their been any incidents (discovery and capture by IS, tribal allegiance shifts with declarations of new loyalties?) regarding SFGA efforts to re-open contacts from the "awakening"? If any incidents, were they public?
Posted by: ISL | 11 October 2014 at 08:30 AM
All
Real world time for inputs for this turn will expire at 1600 GMT, 12 October 2014. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 11 October 2014 at 09:07 AM
TC Control request:
USAF deploys all available JSTARS aircraft to the appropriate air bases in the Gulf, to provide C3I and better real time targeting data for use in and around Erbil and potential raids around Mosul and Anbar province. These are to be escorted by Navy EF-18G Growler aircraft to help jam ISIS communications and to guard against ISIS acquiring and using SAMs beyond MANPADS. The Growlers are based in Kuwait, having shorter legs. RC-135 Rivet Joint aircraft are also deployed to support C3I activities.
US Navy: The USS Ohio - SSGN-726 is assigned to patrol as near to the Syrian shore as possible. While not disclosed, a second SSGN is also patrolling in the Gulf. Each has 154 Tomahawk land attack missiles. The intent is the ability to launch them in a concerted wave,to degrade any concentration of ISIS equipment or logistics chains. There is no set date for their use.
Posted by: BabelFish | 11 October 2014 at 09:20 AM
ISL
TC response: "Effective" is here defined as increasing the combat power of Pesh Merga forces. Pesh Merga/US Army 1 SFGA/Quds force combination is gaining ground slowly against IS in restoring the area of previous KAR control. US and Iranian weapons and logistical deliveries are continuous. US NCA (WH) has complained to DoD of unauthorized US SF liaison with Quds force in Kurdistan. USSF suspects CIA operatives of "ratting" on them to gain turf advantage. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 11 October 2014 at 09:22 AM
Babelfish
TC response: Requests are granted subject to National Command Authority permission for each SSGN strike to include targets. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 11 October 2014 at 09:26 AM
US: Joint Chiefs demand, and are granted, 100% relief from the sequester control of spending. This, in turn, assists them in being bolder in requesting deployment of more assets to the ME. Ebola control is effective, the the CDC running an solid program of education of the medical provider community, airlines and the TSA, to provide functionality as lines of defense. These two items prevent the GOP from considering a government shutdown over provisions of the Affordable Care Act that require funding to reimburse insurance companies for losses at the exchange level.
Europe: Germany's government hangs on through the crisis over the state of their military but the Engle government is further weakened and is predicted to fall within the year. They provide no significant assistance during this time.
Iraq: With tacit help from Iran, the Peshmerga begins to be provided with a weapons suite comparable to the needs they have in fighting ISIS. There is difficulty as the weapons are not mix and match and logistic support is sketchy. The source of many of them becomes undeniable when observers note that they are Chinese origin.
Posted by: BabelFish | 11 October 2014 at 09:38 AM
TTG
TC response - CENTCOM is directed to form a Joint Unconventional Warfare Task Force (JUWTF) for CENTCOM AOR. SOCCENT will be controlling headquarters for JUWTFME. USSOC will be supporting command for JUWTFME. The JUWTF headquarters and subordinate support facilities to be located in KAR territory. JUWTF will be operated as a black (unacknowledged) activity. Personnel will be attached from US Army Special Forces Command, or JSOC. JUWTF will assume command and control of covert UW support to PKK and YPG forces to maintain their ability to defend territory and population against IS and Turkish armed forces as necessary. JUWTF will assume command and control of ongoing 1st USFGA operations with Arab tribes in Iraq with mission to form effective anti-IS forces. All JUWTF personnel in the field will be unacknowledged as US armed forces. Priority of support for this activity is directed for all major commands. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 11 October 2014 at 09:47 AM
babelfish
TC Response - Fortunately 1st USFGA Green Berets are good at teaching amalgamation of various types of weapons in a foreign force. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 11 October 2014 at 09:50 AM
How do the infiltrators and the already present real or potential supporters meet?
Posted by: LeaNder | 11 October 2014 at 10:02 AM
TC Control request:
What's in your "diplomatic front" scenarios for any of the parties? I. e. Russia, Turkey, France.
Posted by: Dave Schuler | 11 October 2014 at 10:29 AM
Love the scenario, TTG. ...
Posted by: LeaNder | 11 October 2014 at 10:48 AM
"There are large number Ebola cases in Nigeria and it has now spread to India (though Liberia and Nigeria)."
From Nigeria to India. How comes?
Posted by: LeaNder | 11 October 2014 at 11:41 AM
LeAnder
How do they meet? I presume you mean around Aleppo. They meet as best they can. That is what the military art is all about. Some of these groups have existing contacts among them. Others do not. If they cannot "meet" then the SAR is advantaged. Sometimes you eat the bear. Sometimes the bear eats you. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 11 October 2014 at 11:50 AM
elaine: "Russian naval build up in the Mediterranean & Caspian . . "
Did you intend to mention the Black Sea instad of the Caspian? The latter is not only land-locked but, IIRC, bordered either by overt Russian allies or by countries that share their interests in this situation.
Posted by: ex-PFC Chuck | 11 October 2014 at 11:50 AM
Hmm? How come Celle entered your scenario?
Posted by: LeaNder | 11 October 2014 at 11:54 AM