"General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iraq's government must be ready to arm Sunni tribes as a precondition for getting outside advisers into the western Iraqi province.
Washington hopes Iraq's government can rebuild the shaky alliance with Sunni tribes, particularly in Anbar which is now mostly under the control of Islamic State.
Asked about recent gains in Anbar by the militants and their executions of tribesmen in the past week, Dempsey said: "That's why we need to expand the train, advise and assist mission into ... al Anbar province."
"But the precondition for that is that the government of Iraq is willing to arm the tribes," Dempsey told a Pentagon news conference." Reuters
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Is this a joke? The world seems to reflect the projections in the first SST war game.
The Shia government in Baghdad that the US created in the aftermath on our invasion NEVER HAD A RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SUNNI TRIBES OF ANBAR. US Special Forces and USMC had the relationship, one that the arch courtier Petraeus latched onto when he saw it worked. The post-grad students running foreign policy in Washington pissed that relationship away when they abandoned the Sunni tribes as part of their dream-world fantasy of a united Iraq, bound together by the results of purple thumbed elections.
Now, the ISniks are hammering home the lesson of their remorseless reaction to resistance. They are teaching through terror that the tribes should not expect help from the US. They teach that lesson by murdering all who in any way displease them. How many hundreds of men, women and children have they killed in the last week? The lesson is clear. Submit or die.
While this goes on, the Obama Administration dithers and waits for a miracle to occur, a miracle in which the Shia decide to share power with the Sunni Arabs. This miracle will NEVER happen.
How long does Dempsey think he has before all is lost in Anbar? How long? pl
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/30/us-mideast-crisis-usa-iraq-idUSKBN0IJ2ML20141030
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"The United Nations has warned that foreign jihadists are swarming into the twin conflicts in Iraq and Syria on “an unprecedented scale” and from countries that had not previously contributed combatants to global terrorism.
A report by the UN security council, obtained by the Guardian, finds that 15,000 people have travelled to Syria and Iraq to fight alongside the Islamic State (Isis) and similar extremist groups. They come from more than 80 countries, the report states, “including a tail of countries that have not previously faced challenges relating to al-Qaida”." Guardian
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IMO there will be a larger and larger stream of such mujahid wannabees. This is something like the flocking of leftists to Spain in the 30s for the purpose of fighting for the Spanish Republic and against Franco's brand of right wing nationalism. In IS a lot of disoriented young Muslims see a chance to fight for something they find compelling. In a world-wide population of over a billion and a half Muslims, even a very small percentage will produce a few hundred thousand volunteers. Britt Hume, the faux news anchor, asked me soon after 9/11 how many suicide bombers the jihadis could muster. I told him "thousands." He scoffed. pl
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/30/foreign-jihadist-iraq-syria-unprecedented-un-isis
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"Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman of Israel said in a statement Thursday that the decision by the Swedish government to recognize a Palestinian state was unfortunate and would strengthen radical elements and Palestinian recalcitrance.
“The Swedish government must understand that relations in the Middle East are more complex than one of Ikea’s flat-pack pieces of furniture, and would do well to act with greater sensitivity and responsibility,” he said.
Israel said it was recalling its ambassador to Sweden to Jerusalem for consultation, according to Paul Hirschson, the Foreign Ministry’s deputy spokesman. “It’s an expression of a certain level of upset from our side,” he said." NY Times
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They are upset? Soon they will be far more upset when France recognizes Palestine and then others across the world follow. This will surely be followed by pursuit of action by the State of Palestine in the international courts against the State of Israel and named persons for war crimes and crimes against humanity. Indictments would result in travel difficulties and the possibility of arrest on non-Israeli territory. pl
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/31/world/europe/sweden-recognizes-palestinian-state.html?_r=0
Sir,
Indictments, travel probs, arrested Israelis outside of Israel? Wow! Consider this girl's mind completely boggled!!
Seriously though, I do feel that if this were to happen, then prominent American pols would intervene on behalf of their friends in Israel and the Israelis targetted by foreign countries. I do not think they should but I have a feeling they would intervene.
Posted by: Marcy | 31 October 2014 at 12:25 PM
""Israel said it was recalling its ambassador to Sweden to Jerusalem for consultation, according to Paul Hirschson, the Foreign Ministry’s deputy spokesman. “It’s an expression of a certain level of upset from our side,” he said." NY Times""
I worked with Swedes for many years. They are usually in another universe of their own making. But they also surprised me frequently with a pretty sane view of the world. And, they do have the courage of their convictions. I guess they are still too polite to wish said Ikea furniture hit the Izzy ambassador's touche on the way out of the country.
Posted by: BabelFish | 31 October 2014 at 12:54 PM
How can we call Obamas strategy a flop when we do not know if he even has a strategy? My feeling is that he has decided that the US will leave the ME soon and he is just giving lip service to the problems so we can bug out.
I just finished Bacevichs' MOOC course on "War for the ME". The simplest solution is pack up and go home.
Posted by: r whitman | 31 October 2014 at 01:27 PM
On Iraq:
The Sunni are some 20% of the population but demand 40% of the budget.
The Kurd are some 15% of the population but demand 25% of the budget.
The Shia are 65% of the population and ask why they should cope with only getting 35% of the budget.
I have no idea how to solve that. Partition would hit the Sunni the most and therefore not solve the IS problem. Also the Kurds would start fighting each other as soon as they would have some more autonomy. They would lose their new loot in Tikrit and Kirkuk and would be pushed back into the mountains.
On Obama's plans:
There is a lot of pressure for Obama to hit the Syrian government. If he does so the Islamic State would soon rule in Damascus. In yesterday's Haaretz an Israeli senior officer said that he would like to see the U.S. to hit Assad first and only thereafter the Islamic State. That sounded like he would want to fight down to the last American soldier.
But the only sane solution against the IS is to collaborate with Assad (and Iran). Obama can not do that openly or he would loose the "coalition" and anti-IS support from the GCC states. Hence some "to be trained" new Fee Syrian Army as the carrot to keep the GCC and Turkey in the row.
Obama seems to want to punt those problems to the next president.
Posted by: b | 31 October 2014 at 01:43 PM
b
It has been so long since a reliable census in Iraq that nobody knows how many of each there are. pl
Posted by: turcopolier | 31 October 2014 at 01:44 PM
If our stated mission truly is to degrade and destroy ISIS, then we better get busy degrading and destroying and count our allies as those who have the stones to join in the degrading and destroying. That would put us in league with Iran, Assad's Syrian forces, Hezbollah and the Kurds including the PKK and YPG. As my father would often say, "Shit or get off the pot!"
Our so called allies of Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Israel clearly have different priorities. Fine, that's their prerogative. Just live with the consequences.
Posted by: The Twisted Genius | 31 October 2014 at 02:05 PM
I think ISIS is thriving on the collective disposition of the Arabs in Eastern Syria and Western Iraq. I think only the federalization of Iraq could potentially address that situation - after ISIS is destroyed (over the long term).
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 31 October 2014 at 02:06 PM
I think all those things pale in comparison to the colossal failure of acceptance as a legitimate state in the Middle East and by the wider Muslim World.
All of the power of US and EU failed in that project and I think in the years and decades ahead its ramifications will sink in.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 31 October 2014 at 02:09 PM
What time we live in when the basically undemocratic state of RF has been gaining an upper hand morally over the Western world? Putin is a ghastly figure, but he seems a head taller morally than the DC politicians that are bought thoroughly by the financiers and war profiteers. The DC has no humanistic ideas to uphold and defend. All what is left is the "baseline." Here is a black eye to Obama (and other bloviators about various "values"):
http://www.unz.com/proberts/vladimir-putin-is-the-leader-of-the-moral-world/
Posted by: Anna-Marina | 31 October 2014 at 02:14 PM
I always reckoned the US strategy in the Middle East to make the world safe for Israel. In that case, Obama has done just as well as his predecessors, if not better. The complete destabilization of Syria, a pro-Israeli (i.e. pro US money) junta in Egypt, and the participation of the Gulf 'leaders' in same, coupled with the usual cravenness in support of Israeli transgressions, have been quite effective.
Feces pullus, to give the epithet the decorum and dignity worthy of the office.
Posted by: jr786 | 31 October 2014 at 03:29 PM
Col: Chas Freeman tees it up. See http://chasfreeman.net/the-collapse-of-order-in-the-middle-east/
Susan Rice isn't just incompetent on Syria and Iraq; she has also been called a "gladiator" for Israel at the UN. See http://www.wideasleepinamerica.com/2012/12/susan-rice-israels-gladiator-at-un.html
Posted by: Matthew | 31 October 2014 at 04:19 PM
r Whitman: And put all those think tankers out of work?
Posted by: Matthew | 31 October 2014 at 05:11 PM
ISIS is a magnet for every disaffected Muslim in the world. Every Muslim in any country who thinks they have been abused since 9/11.
Every Muslim who has had to tolerate the snide comments at work or school. The jokes about suicide bombers. The abuse in the streets over Burkhas and such, the endless unfair commentary in the mainstream media. The sober Christian commentators denigrating their religion. Then Al Ghraib, Falluja and the rest. Total disrespect for Islam and Arabs.
Does everyone understand the appeal of ISIS to any Muslim who wishes to think that they have had a bad treatment from some part of the West? If I was a Nineteen year old muslim with failing grades at school I'm sure I could.
I'm waiting for ISIS to start throwing our own commentary back in our faces; how do you say "kill them all and let Allah sort them out" in Arabic?
This conflict, which we brought on ourselves, is not going to end well for the West.
Posted by: Walrus | 31 October 2014 at 05:26 PM
Colonel,
Gen. Dempsey and the JCS really need to put you into their speed-dials.
Posted by: J | 31 October 2014 at 05:29 PM
Being in league with Iran is possible but that would require the United States to accept all Iranian nuclear activities within the boundaries of NPT.
That will not happen and thus there will not be "being in league" with Iran.
US has spent too much now to call that quits over ISIS.
Posted by: Babak Makkinejad | 31 October 2014 at 05:45 PM
My assessment is that the Israeli political leadership believes ISIS/Al Nusra and Syria in chaos can be handled. It might result in some mortars being fired across the border or some suicidal infiltration attempts - all that can be handled and turned into political lemonade, proving once again that Israel is under attack and the only democracy in the ME etc. With a Syria in chaos or dominated by islamists there can be no question about returning the Golan heights, and oil, gas and water exploration can proceed.
To add - today the relations between Al Nusra etc and Israel seem quite cordial.
All that is good, and then there is the great bonus of reducing Hezbollah, and the strategic threat Syria's and Hezbollahs missile forces represent.
Posted by: FkDahl | 31 October 2014 at 06:09 PM
Colonel,
There is a plan. It is designed with four components that have been in place since 2001. First is to be Israel’s puppet. Second is to make money off of war and chaos. Third is to make Muslims the Others to scapegoat for the destruction. Fourth is to prop up the House of Saud and pump their oil. There is no American strategic plan to bring peace to the Middle East or contain the violence because the USA government is controlled by transnational plutocrats who are out to benefit only themselves and don’t give a whit about the American people.
Posted by: VietnamVet | 31 October 2014 at 06:41 PM
Post Tuesday's election could get "interesting".
Secondly the idea of ISIS serving as a magnet for "mujahid wannabees" doesn't seem such a bad idea to me as it collects them in one area.
We shall see.
Posted by: curtis | 31 October 2014 at 08:05 PM
"Putin is a ghastly figure"
Why? He is a Russian leader who is doing the best he can for his country. What is "ghastly" about that, unless you are referring to the fact that he has successfully checkmated the US in its attempts to reduce Russia to a vassal.
Have you read the link you have given at the end of your comment? I don't see anything there to suggest that Putin is "ghastly".
Posted by: FB Ali | 31 October 2014 at 10:40 PM
Why, pray tell, is Putin a "ghastly figure"? Please be specific and make reference to the Russian historical experience. Start with the period 1941-1945 and go backwards. And is the "western World" really "democratic". Please reduce your Koll-Aid intake.
Posted by: Burton50 | 31 October 2014 at 10:55 PM
"...the existing political geography of the Arab world – not just the map drawn by Sykes-Picot – faces progressive erosion and ultimate collapse" (Chas Freeman).
The neocons' dream has become true. If only the neocons (and their enablers) were summoned and sent to this paradise that was accomplished thanks to an immense financial infusion from the US (to the delight of war profiteers and to the sorrow of those who paid with their limb&blood for the stupid imperial Doctrines).
The Teeth of Dragon have been sown.
Posted by: Anna-Marina | 31 October 2014 at 11:03 PM
All,
"on “an unprecedented scale” and from countries that had not previously contributed combatants to global terrorism."
how many countries have saudi and other gulf funded madrasas preaching Wahhabi ideas?
While this is was not in western msm, this outcome is not unexpected.
Posted by: Aka | 31 October 2014 at 11:31 PM
"While this goes on, the Obama Administration dithers and waits for a miracle to occur, a miracle in which the Shia decide to share power with the Sunni Arabs. This miracle will NEVER happen."
No. This is not dithering. Recognition of the FU has dawned (time period when unknown ATM). Now its an exercise of "pass the parcel" to the next administration, which MO has been practiced by POTUS for the past 30 (?) years.
It is a long two years to go tho...
Posted by: Mac | 31 October 2014 at 11:44 PM
Walrus,
in addition to those with failing grades at school are that fraction of idealistic ones at school right along with new converts who are more Muslim than those raised with the religion.
Posted by: Fred | 01 November 2014 at 12:54 AM
Colonel,
On another note, Turkmenistan celebrated their Independence day on the 27th of October when they declared their independence from the former Soviet Union on 27 October 1991.
Notice how they pattern their parade after their former Soviet overlords.
It's been kind of bland there since the demise of the late Turkmenbashi Saparmurat Niyazov.
Enjoy.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=473xmdqnsx4
Posted by: J | 01 November 2014 at 12:57 AM