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13 October 2014

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Edward

Israel is probably desperate to prevent a U.S. rapprochement with Iran. Obama may be desperate enough to fight ISIS to form an alliance of necessity with Iran. Would Israel do this without U.S. permission?

Cee

All,

The writing is on the wall and Israel has become more desperate and will do ANYTHING to keep us entangled in their madness.

http://www.jewishjournal.com/opinion/article/indyck_cracks_the_whip_on_israel

Israel has gotten away with murder and mayhem for decades. Time for the mad dog diplomacy and blackmail to end. Moshe Dyan thought that would continue to work. Well, now WE shouldn't bother.
I hope that the back-channel talks with the US and Iran continue. I also hope the Kurds don't continue to trust them to help bring about their dreams of a Free Kurdistan. Israel is a global liability.

Cee

All,

I forgot to add that Israel wants to US to do their fighting. The following article is also quite interesting

http://www.turkeyagenda.com/why-israel-is-a-strategic-liability-for-the-us-1224.html

BabelFish

I wish someone here with BDA experience could render an opinion of the before and after pics. I'm not smart enough to know the details in these pictures that would be telling.

http://abuyehuda.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/10/parch.jpg

turcopolier

Edward

You think they are looking for US permission? How quaint. pl

Edward

I probably am being quaint, but I was under the impression that Israel sought U.S. permission/agreement for actions like this. I think this impression was created by something I read stating that Ariel Sharon received permission from Bush to attack Gaza when Sharon was Prime Minister.

turcopolier

Edward

That was then. This is now. pl

different clue

Since tensions are stretched drumhead-tight between israel, Iran and Hezbollah; any such small-bombing within Iranian territory would reasonably attributed to Israel. Which means that if somebody else did the bombing, somebody else could sit silently back and see the bombing attributed to Israel.
It would be the logical attribution to make in this context, a context of tension which the Greater-Revisionist coalition governments have worked very hard to create and maintain. Would the Greater Likudistani leadership (as opposed to the Lesser Israeli opposition remnants) be sorry to find themselves blamed for somebody else's bomb? Would it make them rethink their Prime Directive of Keep Up The Tension?

Edward

On the other hand, it is also true that a U.S. military official (an admiral?), had to travel to Israel to warn them against creating an incident that would drag the U.S. into a war with Iran.

turcopolier

Edward

Once again, that was then. This is now. They have been becoming more and more uncontrollable. which is it W&L or VMI? If you don't want to accept what I said, get lost and leave me alone. pl

Piotr, Poland

It's probable. The basic question is how advenced were Iranians in gathering of pure U235 isotope? If they were very advanced then Israeli air attack is very probable.

Last ten years Israeli secret services organized many attempts of assassination of Iranian atomic scientists some with success, so Israelis are very serious about Iranian atomic programme, and are ready to use any needed measure to stop it or at least to slow. Maybe they are even ready for the war vs Hezbollah, as a consequence.

Not surprising to me at all, if done by Israelis.

Piotr, Poland

ISIS (not IS) report on satellite images of Parchin:

http://isis-online.org/uploads/isis-reports/documents/Parchin_Explosion_Site_October_8_2014.pdf

 Old Gun Pilot

BabelFish
BDA or bomb damage assessment is a report by a FAC (forward air controller) to the attack aircraft grading their attack. It's given in a fraction of bombs on target over percentage of target destroyed. For example 80 over 100 means 80% of bombs were on target and 100% of target was destroyed. The BDA says nothing about the value of the target. Looking at the pictures I see nothing that indicates this is a high value target. Nuclear development sites look like industrial complexes and nuke storage bunkers are deep underground. This looks nothing like intell photos of nuclear development sites that I saw while on active duty. The bunkers you see in these photos look like those seen on any military installation where conventional ammo is stored. Any bomb targeted for a nuke bunker would have delayed fuse for ground penetration. As for the bomb damage, the lower right picture shows no cratering which means either any cratering has been filled or there was an above ground blast. This is the kind of damage you'd see from a 1000 pounder (Mk 83)fused for above ground burst. If there is a target in this picture it would be the large building on the right. I'm unimpressed by these photos.
OGP

blowback

The Iranians had a real accident at Parchin which is a weapons research site and not a nuclear facility (otherwise, the IAEA could visit any time they liked) and the Israelis are using the "evidence" for propaganda purposes. This is just more Israeli BS like the Syrian "reactor" which site has been "bombed" again BTW.

https://maps.google.co.uk/?ll=35.707819,39.833041&spn=0.001769,0.002374&t=h&z=19

BTW, if I was the Iranians, I would stage an "accident" at such a site and then wait for the Israelis to claim responsibility before revealing the event as a hoax and the Israeli government as the liars they are. Actually, I seem to recall that the Israelis claimed the Iranians were up to something nefarious when it turned out to be nothing more than a film set.

different clue

Blowback,

Would the Israelis really be this loud honkin' stupid as to claim they diddit if in fact they did not? Given world opinion's negative reaction to an Israeli bomb-strike on Iran at this time, would the Israeli leadership really be so aggressively beYOND stupid as to expose themselves to that?

But yes . . . if Iran had an lab accident there and sat back and let Israel claim that Israel diddit . . . with Israel's mighty invincible omnideterrent airforce . . . and then produced courtroom quality evidence that it was a lab accident . . . . that would make Israel look stupid. It would call to mind the French diplomat's statement that "it was worse than a crime, it was a mistake". And a double mistake to claim a crime where no crime was, if no crime was there.

We would have to invent new words for "beyond stupid", words like "reverse-intelligent" or "negative-smart" or some such.

What does Herzl's ghost think?

Cee

Piotr Poland,

Richard is on point.

http://www.richardsilverstein.com/2014/10/09/did-israel-bomb-irans-parchin-nuclear-facility/

Imagine

Nima Shirazi reports comprehensively that recently
http://www.wideasleepinamerica.com/2013/09/rouhani-affirms-iran-will-never-seek-nuclear-weapons.html
and consistently for the past 20 years
http://www.wideasleepinamerica.com/2012/10/the-goldberg-predilections-ignoring.html
Iran has repudiated the building and use of nuclear weapons as being morally reprehensible and strategically useless.

Realpolitik analyst Bruce Bueno de Mesquita completely ignores this, and Ahmadinejad's assertion that "anyone who talks of nukes is mentally retarded", but in a 2009 TED talk comes to a similar conclusion: based on his group game decision theory, he predicted that the stable minimum energy for the Iran hardliners vs. the doves would be to build nuclear processing plants that could in theory allow nuclear breakout in two years, but in practice would never get there, since it would cost too much politically to actually have nukes and the Iran doves really are truly opposed to it. Hilariously, he states in 2009 that the situation will resolve itself stably in a couple of months in the case if Iran is left alone. However, if the State Dept. pokes Iran, it could take much longer to resolve.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts5MKtXNpMQ

Not one American politician has mentioned Israel's nuke-armed submarines, would cause too much cognitive dissonance:
http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/germany-may-sell-2-more-dolphin-subs-to-israel-for-117b-01528/
http://news.yahoo.com/israel-takes-delivery-hi-tech-german-sub-181148663.html

We are in trouble, though. Senate Resolution SR65 from last year states that protecting Israel is the national interest of America; that Iranian nuclear /capability/[sic] is cause for a war against Iran; that, when Israel attacks Iran in "self defense", Congress will give them the green light; will follow them into war; and will give them all the Pentagon backing and money they need, because it is the "constitutional responsibility of Congress to authorize the use of military force, diplomatic, military, and economic support to the Government of Israel in its defense of its territory, people, and existence" [sic]. I do not see anywhere in MY Constitution where it is the responsibility of Congress to take care of Israel, but then, I'm not a Senator. This passed unanimously.
http://legiscan.com/US/bill/SR65/2013

"Nuclear weapons capability" is code for "having a nuclear energy program". Iran has had nuclear weapons /capability/ for decades, as have Japan and Canada. This means we can legally bomb Iran any time the Senate feels it can get away with it.

Also see "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu gets 29 standing ovations from Congress" on strategic causes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=asGvjbfIASA

Everyone wants peace. I disagree with the way Israel's trying to achieve it. I believe that Israel, and the world, will be safer when Israel starts treating other human beings like neighbors (cf.Hillel), and not cockroaches to be exterminated; and when Israel mans up and joins the NPT, like practically the entire rest of the world (including Iran!) except North Korea. Peace through honesty and integrity. God bless us all.


confusedponderer

To 'bomb' as a term suggests an air raid.

Not necessarily so. The Israelis have in the past also conducted sabotage of the cloak-and-dagger type, much what the SOE did in occupied France (planting bombs and assassinating people). I junderstand that the last time something blew up big time in Iran it was something of that sort and not an Israeli air strike.

Second hunch, satellite pictures I saw indicate to me that what blew up was probably a missile and nothing per se nuclear related.

As for cloak-and-dagger - the Israelis would have in this case probably used some Iranian assets. The MEK comes to mind as the obvious recruitment pool for such people.

The timing is curious.

It was probably the Isralis also helped create inidenct in which a number of Iranian Quds force generals was assassinated, which famously led to the end of an apparent warming between the US and Iran in the Bush years.

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israeli-mossad-agents-posed-as-cia-spies-to-recruit-terrorists-to-fight-against-iran-1.407224

http://www.salon.com/2012/02/10/israel_mek_and_state_sponsor_of_terror_groups/

Another thing, as underlined by the comment sections of US newspapers who reported the story, is that the incident 'awakens' the assertions that Iran has a secret nuclear weapons program. By and large, the pro Israeli commenters take this as a given.

Put in the context of the negotiations that the US has with Iran, it means that the Izzies try to have their water carriers in the US reinsert the condition that Iran proves a negative ('absence of evidence is not evience of absence'), namely that it does not have a secret nuclear weapons program.

After all, that tactic worked so well in preventing any reasonable conversation with Iraq, or the IAEA (the latter, as a result of the last two decades of having been instrumentalised as an embargo justification machine, must by now be thoroughly penetrated by Western and Israeli intelligence agencies).

As a scenario it would make sense:

The Izzies are dismayed to see the US and Iran collabotrating in face of ISIS and try to poison the atmosphere with spoiler attacks.

LeaNder

Thanks, BabelFish,

that helped me to understand what this is about. Or at least got me slightly closer. ...

The claim that Iran ordered Hisbollah is of course a very, very convenient narrative even more considering the state of affairs East of Tel Aviv or Jerusalem.

Considering the images. One would need more, images of the complex from slightly different perspective, more knowledge about the debate, its genesis and ideally understand the technical context. I doubt your author ever wondered if he should know all these things.

Personally, I would at least like to know something about the "real" dimensions. II would assume these images come along with technical details like coordinates and angles. You need to know that to understand the shadows or bunkers, I guess. That would help even a layman like me. There is a difference, but I do not quite understand it. Are these taken by different satellites?

http://abuyehuda.com/2014/10/was-the-parchin-explosion-an-israeli-air-strike/

thanks, interesting:

http://abuyehuda.com/2014/10/was-the-parchin-explosion-an-israeli-air-strike/

From Wikipedia: Parchin to The Stockholm International Peace Research Institut:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Parchin#cite_note-6

"] Since 2005, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has requested further inspections of the site, but has been denied access by the Iranian government.[5] One nuclear expert suggested that the IAEA was "stretching its mandate to the limit in asking for access to a military site based on tenuous evidence."[6]"

http://www.sipri.org/media/expert-comments/18jan2013_IAEA_Kelley

http://www.sipri.org/search?SearchableText=Israel

steve

clue,

Why would Israel care about world condemnation? They haven't in the past.

As for Iran producing verifiable evidence that Israel did this, verifiable evidence of Israeli war crimes against civilians hasn't seemed to matter to Israel, at least in any significant way that I can tell.

Cee

Different clue,

Israel doesn't give a damn. They think they own the US and act accordingly.


“I’ve never seen a President — I don’t care who he is — stand up to them [the Israelis]. It just boggles the mind. They always get what they want. The Israelis know what is going on all the time. I got to the point where I wasn’t writing anything down. If the American people understood what a grip those people have got on our government, they would rise up in arms. Our citizens certainly don’t have any idea what goes on.”--Admiral Thomas Moorer, former Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff

They have the audacity to be angry about all of the foreign aid being given to rebuild Gaza and have said they were going to invade again so the money was wasted.
We've wasted aid on them too and I'm sick of them. They have now formed an alliance with the Saudis against our interests. Neither are allies.

BabelFish

Thanks, Old Gun Pilot:

I came to the same but not in any way expert opinion. We had bunkers at Lockheed Martin (Orlando) to store Patriot and Hellfire birds and they resembled the structures in the picture.

I had to assume they were commercial sat photos and that it appeared that construction work had been done to 'smooth over' the destroyed buildings. It is also very hard to see any collateral damage to the other buildings.

I keep on coming back to the thought that this is an accident site but that makes it hard to explain the exact picture.

David Habakkuk

All,

Not really off topic, I think.

Last night, the Commons voted, by 274 to 12, in favour of a motion to the effect that 'this House believes that the Government should recognise the state of Palestine alongside the state of Israel as a contribution to securing a negotiated two state solution.' More than half of MPs absented themselves, but it is striking that so few voted against the motion.

Extract from the speech given by the (Tory) chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee, Sir Richard Ottaway, a lifelong supporter of Israel, in support of the motion:

'The annexation of the 950 acres of the West Bank just a few months ago has outraged me more than anything else in my political life, mainly because it makes me look a fool, and that is something that I resent.'

(His speech is quoted in full in the report by Philip Weiss – see http://mondoweiss.net/2014/10/parliament-overwhelmingly-palestinian .)

Another strong Tory supporter of the motion, the former International Development minister Sir Alan Duncan, gave a speech today to the Royal United Services Institute. Extracts from the concluding paragraphs, in reverse order:

'Anyone who supports illegal Israeli settlements in Palestinian land is an extremist who puts themself outside the boundaries of democratic standards. They are not fit to stand for election or sit in a democratic parliament, and they should be condemned outright by the international community and treated accordingly ...

'For far too long, those who have made a moral stand against Israeli misconduct and in favour of justice for Palestinians have been trashed, traduced and bullied. This, and the character assassination of critics, cannot be allowed to continue...

'We need British Jews for the Conservative, Labour, or other UK parties; not the Israeli lobby for any party. The time has come to make sure above any doubt that the funding of any party in the UK is clearly decoupled from the influence of the Israeli state...'

(See http://www.alanduncan.org.uk/articles/alan-delivers-speech-on-israeli-settlements .)

Babak Makkinejad

I doubt seriously that they - the Israelis - have nuclear-armed submarines.

In a public disclosure, Bruce Riedel stated that they have 10 nuclear bombs - probably plutonium ones - which they would have to make small etc.

I suppose all of this is to persuade others to remain in awe of plucky little Israel.

curtis

Mere posturing for public effect. Action speaks so much more that words.

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