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02 October 2014

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Lamoe2012

Col Lag,

First I would like to thank you for this blog. Second the Ebola hype is just that. I would urge people to read some of the very good books on the 1918 pandemic. If Ebola had been an airborne virus the number of infected would be in the hundreds of millions and the dead in the tens of millions by now.
There is something about these times that people look for something to panic about. I remember the hysteria over Fukushima. The northern hemisphere or everything west of the Rockies was suppose to be a radioactive wasteland depending on what wild eyed blog you read. Or the Gulf oil spill that was suppose to end all life on the seas. Last time I was at Costco there was plenty of sea food for sale.
I would urge people to relax there are enough real dangers out there.

VietnamVet

Colonel,

The US government has been flushed down the toilet. It can’t protect the White House. An Ebola patient is released back into the community. No quarantine has been established for air travelers from western Africa. It is unwilling to work with Russia, Syria and Iran to curb the Islamic State.

This has to be due the shortsightedness of a small cabal of extremely wealthy families that includes Israel Firsters, Oil Sheiks and the Davos Elite who control the West. Their one and only goal is grabbing any wealth anywhere by any means necessary no matter the risk to mankind, including starting a civil war in Ukraine, supporting puppet jihadists in the Middle East, or fracking in the face of climate change.

Ebola is a natural response to too many humans, too close together, in concert with the triumph of greed over commonsense and decency.

Lars

Ebola sounds like something you get on the Internet. For more info, go to: chickenlittle.com

james jordan

Erm .... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/ebola-virus-could-become-airborne-in-nightmare-scenario-un-mission-chief-warns-9770496.html

Tyler

Lamoe,

There's an absolutely massive gulf between the twin poles of "we're absolutely fine" and Infowars trying to sell us water filters in between telling us how doomed we are.

Using hyperbolic examples of people making idiotic predictions in the past doesn't change a few key facts in this example.

One, we still aren't really sure how doctors wearing full HAZMAT positive pressure suits ended up catching the disease. That means we don't have a real grasp on what the transmission vectors are, which is a huge problem. Contra this with the happy talk coming out of the former Bloomberg Group doctor (and current CDC head) Doctor Freiden.

That schmuck engaged in a song and dance routine when he couldn't answer a question from the most milquetoast of interviewers, Sanjay Gupta, in regards to if sneezing, coughing, or handshaking could transmit Ebola. He could only repeat over and over like a broken record how "everything was under control"!

Obviously he's been told to toe the damn line and put a big smiley face on everything. The Democrats have a Senate to keep, and the fact that they've basically ignored and hand waved the INA and inadvertently let a pandemic event into the country might put a kink in those plans, by Science!

You think because those idiots from Sam Purse turned out alright, that if this starts spreading everyone else will turn out okay? Ahahaha. Go into a Level One Trauma Center on a holiday weekend and look at the chaos THAT is. And those guys can expect that sort of event! Now imagine that area of Dallas, with 33 different languages being spoken at a local school (!!!), all that vibrant diversity coughing, spitting, and bleeding everywhere demanding to be treated. It'd make Ferguson look like a Mormon Pancake Breakfast.

But hey, if you want to play blasé, go right ahead and take your chances with a VHF that has a 70% lethality rating. Its easy to play cool kid on the internet and claim everyone is in tin foil hat land except for you. Its much harder to look at the tragedy of errors that have unfolded and the willful idiocy of the "experts" in this situation and realize that we are in some trouble if this goes kinetic.

Also Fukushima is by all accounts a disaster and it seems like there's a new lie about how much radiation has really been released. But hey, you're too cool for that.

Tyler

We haven't instituted a travel ban from the West African countries, we've stated that we're not going to deport Liberians, and we're giving that idiot from that benighted country top class medical care.

I'm sure no one is going to follow in his footsteps. Nope.

Fred

Col,

Ebola fun in Atlanta:
http://www.ajc.com/news/news/doctor-boards-flight-in-ebola-protection-suit-to-p/nhZk8/

Just what is going on inside the CDC and the Administration? It seems like some bad IO operation or just plain incompetence.

Anna-Marina

I am afraid you underestimate the stupidity of trusting for-profit-only heath care system. When government is detached from the majority of people and functions almost exclusively for the benefits of the mighty "haves," the whole system is in continuous misfiring. The "haves," of course, expect that altruistic "simpletons" will be at hand to save the world:
"officials admit they failed to clean apartment where Ebola patient was staying:" http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/02/ebola-patients-waste-remained-texas-apartment-two-days
As far as Fukushima, it has been heavy smoking and spreading radiation by air and water (you may enjoy your fish, but perhaps you should not give it to your children). To get the perspective on the ongoing tragedy of Fukushima, it is helpful to see the data on Chernobyl'.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/new-book-concludes-chernobyl-death-toll-985-000-mostly-from-cancer/20908
http://www.foe.org.au/anti-nuclear/issues/nfc/power/chernobyl
To get a glimpse of what radiation can do, try to visit oncology department for children with thyroidal cancer. Note, that the Chernobyl reactor had got a sarcophagus pretty quickly, whereas relying on the supposed virtues of corporate statehood brings Fukushima site to nowhere.


Clwydshire

If our public health officials turn out to be as marvellously incompetent, out of touch with reality on the ground, and arrogant in pursuit of political correctness and careerism as our foreign policy elite, we might find ourselves in more trouble than we anticipate.

Given the size of the epidemic in Africa, and the facts of international travel, the current case in Texas is likely just the first of many isolated occurances that will leak into the United States, and the rest of the world. I will get worried when American public health officials start talking about confidence building measures, or if the epidemic spreads to China, where the close association of humans with ducks and pigs has often provided an environment where viruses can mutate very rapidly, possibly in unexpected ways. And China is busy in Africa these days, buying up land and access to natural resources.

G. I. Hazeltine

In my youth I had some friends who were climbing in the Canadian Rockies. Descending, they were confronted with the choice of crossing an avalanche chute, or not. Conditions were marginal. The option was a day's trek around. They attempted to cross. They died. Very bright and promising fellows, at nineteen or twenty.

Small risk of catastrophic consequence is the issue. What if Ebola does become airborne?

The effects of the 'Spanish flu' in our world - can someone in the committee tell us what they would be?

To me the non response to this is a test we have failed. Sure, it may fade away. Or like my friends, high odds of surviving didn't warrant arrogance. In their case it was three.

With Ebola?

Walrus

An acquaintance of mine is an expert on pandemic modelling who recently "retired" to Australia.

Four weeks ago he was sent for post haste, family and all by the CDC to model Ebola. Draw your own conclusions.

CDC are now in a very delicate position; to much information and the public may panic, too little and needed precautions aren't taken.

For example, all elective surgery at Presbyterian has been cancelled for 21 days, all blood samples confiscated by CDC and God knows what else, but you won't read about it.

The danger to any society comes when the health system is overwhelmed and the canary in the coal mine is sick healthcare workers, as is the case in Africa now.

The only defence against this thing where we have an advantage in the West is in public education and obedience to the rule of law by the majority of the population and efficient public administration, that is all.

If Africa ignites, there will be a lot of expats running home and bringing Ebola home with them. Now think about contact tracing and quarantine in Shanghai, Rio, Bombay, Karachi, Mexico City and the remainder of the mega slums. Then of course there is the Haj.

A virus with a 50% case fatality rate may solve our over population problems if we don't stamp it out in Africa

jonst

He Himself--and maybe the Dems too-- have been Carterized after this week. And so has the nation, as a matter of fact.

blue

Lamoe, Our host is Colonel Lang. Our home planet has lost 50 to 70 percent of its wildlife since the 1970's. (This assertion can be taken with a grain of salt or rebutted or reinforced in accordance with the individuals world views, no matter.) I personally have done more than my share of killing in regards to this current state of affairs. I will take no solace from your assertion that there is little or lite concern to be taken for our futures. Now days i remain here in waiatarua and venture away only to hunt our four legged friends. My gratitude to our host and his correspondents. Kind regards Blue

Marcello

I would note that people had just the same attitude a few months ago when they said "Don't worry it will burn itself out after few hundreds of dead". It hasn't and the graphs are increasingly looking like an exponential function.

Besides it is not like we are dumb africans, obviously all the posssible precautions are being taken to contain this:
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2014/10/workers-spray-ebola-patients-vomit-sidewalk-pressure-washer-protective-clothing-photo.html

JJackson

The Ebola outbreak is not hype. It is a very real problem for West Africa at present and will get a great deal worse.

The rate of growth in the outbreak is not being matched by the response. While odd introductions to the US may be reasonably quickly snuffed out that will not be the cases in low income countries with very large populations like Pakistan or Indonesia.
The case numbers are growing exponentially with a doubling time of under a month. To stop this interventions need to keep pace but are so far behind the curve as they are implemented they are immediately absorbed by those awaiting treatment and not even scratching the surface. Please do not underestimate the economic effects of loss of containment on another continent.
I have been a moderator on an infectious disease forum for about a decade and have been following zoonotic emergence closely and mistakes in early containment have made the scale difficult to see a feasibly implementable solution.
Time will tell if I am being alarmist but I urge you all to take a little time to research this epidemic, there is plenty of hype but there is also genuine reason for concern. The posts on this site have frequently lamented the ignoring of sound intelligence data, the heavy weight virologists and epidemiologist are warning you please do not make the same mistakes in public health.
A single post is far to short to cover this adequately but I can supply any numbers you like to back this up and links to the best available data.

Anna-Marina

A warning:"the humanity is racing against the clock in its fight with the Ebola outbreak as the deadly virus can mutate any moment to become airborne, making it much harder to defeat"
http://en.ria.ru/world/20141002/193575730/UN-Ebola-Mission-Warns-Lethal-Virus-Could-Become-Airborne.html

Nancy K

I agree with both of the above posts. Greed is destroying our planted, but I don't blame the wealthy completely, we don't have to buy all the crap they sell, but the prices at Walmart are so cheap. We also don't need to buy gas guzzling cars, trucks and boats, but we do. I think the powers that be like us to ignore what is destroying our world and focus instead on scaring us. Oh no the Africans are coming to give us Ebola, ISIS is crossing the border to chop our heads off, etc etc. Not that ISIS is not a horrendous group and a grave danger to the ME, but they most likely would not be a force to be reckoned with if we had not invaded Iraq under the guise of bringing democracy to the area.

John Minnerath

This is the situation that has given epidemiologists nightmares for decades. Our CDC is as disfunctional as any other Federal bureaucracy.
Time will tell how this plays out.

JJackson

The spectre of airborne transmission has been badly overplayed by those who should know better. It is not impossible given sufficient time and transmission but is highly unlikely as it needs many intermediate stages all of which need to be viable against the prevailing wild type virus. Other forms of genetic change which increase transmission rates are much more easily achieved. Adaptions which allow pre-symtomatic infectiouness or a change from vomiting to projectile vomiting would greatly aid spread and are far less difficult to achieve. There has never been a recorded case of any virus changing its primary route of transmission.

Origin

Walrus and All,

Perhaps your friend is one of these doctors. http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/su6303a1.htm?s_cid=su6303a1_w

According to this CDC study, the infections in West Africa are doubling every 20 days or so and 1.8 additional cases result from each new case. The effective time between exposure and symptoms is about a week with 99 percent of the exposed getting their symptoms within 21 days.

While for a time we, here in the West where there is an established and extended advance health system, in vast reaches of the world, the health infrastructure is very fragile and, like in West Africa, will collapse when a few thousand Ebola cases arise.

It seems almost certain that infected travelers will be arriving and spreading the virus to the third world very soon and that new reservoirs of infection will be established in Asia and the Americas. Bodies are most dangerous just after death. Cultural practices such as body washing and prohibitions on cremation will exacerbate the spread in the third world. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_funeral One can expect that infected persons are today arriving in third world countries, exposing their families, and starting pockets of infection across the globe. In each of these pockets, the infection rates will probably mimic those of the CDC study cited above.

At special risks are the conflict areas of MENA where infection control will likely prove impossible and the toll will be catastrophic. Once a few cases hit Syria and Iraq, the issue of IS state's warring, together with IS's strict adherence to primitive Islamic Laws, will result in a rampant spread of the disease and the issue of the warring will probably fade to insignificance as the world tries to prevent the elimination of half of the population there and total societal collapse from the epidemic.

As the scourge spreads, there will inevitably be Ebola refugees seeking to get into the U.S. and other developed countries for their own safety. Some of these refugees will be infected and we will have to care for them or suffer a pandemic on our shores.

The current USG propaganda seeking to reduce panic will be a prime example of government intentions versus outcome and will conform to the Walrus Rule. If the government were wise, instead, it would be mobilizing the masses to care for massive numbers of infected persons in the scale of the millions. That tactic probably would also conform to the Walrus Rule because instead of treating millions, the epidemic would be averted. Certainly, afterwards, when millions of beds and treatment facilities remained unused and the economy stimulated by the spending and activity, the Republicans would condemn the administration of over-reaction and waste. Such is the reality of governance.

Swampy

Ebola has been made to be airborne - under laboratory conditions, of course.

http://www.laboratoryequipment.com/news/2014/09/airborne-transmission-ebola-possibility

"The idea of the Ebola virus becoming airborne is not far-fetched as its ability to enter cells that line the trachea and lungs has been shown under controlled laboratory conditions, a Purdue Univ. virus expert says."

Hope they don't misplace that sample!

SteveG

All

Read years ago the AIDS virus mutated itself.
Instead of going from Hiv status to AIDS it
would go to a dormant state so not to kill all
it's hosts. This could be what is happening
with Ebola. Is airborne transmission next if
not already as linked above. The incubation
time frame also seems to be changing. From
21 days to 2-21 days according to some sources.
Agreed we must stop the travel of all from these
source countries. Anyone have any current info on
the deployment of our 3000 sacrificial lamb troops?
Will they return infected.

Fred

Tyler,

One important point you left out is that the diverse population in Metro Dallas are not all going to seek medical help in Dallas; add in Fort Worth, Houston, and even back home in Mexico.

ISL

Lamoe 2012

Glad you feel that way - at some time look into the medical literature for Italy. The estimates are tens of thousands are dying per year due to Chernobyl. The patterns match wonderfully with where the clouds went. Officially, there is nothing outside the medical literature. Cesium was measured in the us (37 year lifetime) while the official story was only the iodine was here (8 day lifetime). Funny, the two were released together. Sure, relax, but if your kid develops thyroid cancer in a decade, will you ask the doctor to do cesium tests on his/her hair, or just tell your kid to relax?

Did you know that last summer the entire north gulf of mexico was closed to fishing for months due to BP spill oil on the beaches? it was in the Louisiana Picayune, what you don't read that? Tell your story to fisherfolk in the bayou, where I was visiting. Going to costco to buy Chinese seafood is meaningless. Sure life is great in the beltway bubble.

Tyler: right on

John

We send troops, the Cubans send doctors. America wets itself in Ebola hysteria. The 165 Cuban doctors are going to learn a lot about this disease.
Mr. Market will fix Ebola as soon as he finds the profit center. Maybe sell Ebola riders on our larcenous health insurance policies. Whoa, that will show that Ebola.

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