2014 Election Projections

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dre/politics/election-lab-2014

OK.  Name your poison.  pl

Comments

[steve]

Doubt if anything will change in Washington with a republican Senate. One interesting thing will be to see if the Senate changes the filibuster rules.

Imho, Obama has already checked out and that would be true regardless of who held Congress.

Beyond that, he didn't seem to care much when the dems lost the House--it took pressure off to do anything.

Can't imagine any October surprise, but who knows.

[William R. Cumming]

52-48 REPUBLICAN!

UPSETS OFFSETTING!

[Nancy K]

I can only hope the predictions are wrong, but if they are right than I plan on drinking a nicely chilled chardonnay or sauvignon blanc as I watch the republicans in the house and senate cannibalize themselves, I will then look forward to 2016.

[Laura Wilson]

Nancy…but what about all the poor women who can't afford wine? Seriously, you are right and they will cannibalize themselves. Unfortunately, they may take many rights and opportunities and throw then into the stewpot as well.

I'm ever so grateful that I live in California where the Minority Leader in the House is so completely out of step with his state…if it weren't for the old white agribusiness dudes, McCarthy wouldn't be in Washington. Demographics (I hope) are destiny.

[Matthew]

Nancy K: If the Republicans regain the Senate, expect two years of constant investigations, threats of impeachment, and gridlock.

If President Obama knows it's over, he just might abstain when the Palestinians bring their 3-year-to-statehood resolution to the UN Security Council.

[Cee]

All,

The Hispanic, Asian and African American turnout are key to kicking the GOP to the curb. Will they represent?

I think the Democrats will hold on.

[alba etie]

All
I predict the Democrats will hold the Senate . Why- because of unexpected wins in Georgia for Ms Nunn & in Kentucky for Ms Grimes .

[Fred]

Laura,

"Demographics (I hope) are destiny."

You mean we will no longer be considered "all created equal"? My, my.

[Nancy K]

Laura, I moved to NC from CA 2 years ago. You may be grateful that you live in a Democratic state however the states between the East and West coast still have a vote and they seem to be voting Republican, God knows why.
A little side about the coast of wine. My 89 year old mother who recently moved here from CA just informed me she bought some wine at Walmart for $2.87 a bottle. I think that may be cheaper than a bottle of water in CA.
I believe I have read many times on this site that a Democracy deserves the government it has. If we all don't register and vote than we can't really complain. We need to start making sure that all of those without photo ID's,get them, and people who have a hard time getting to the voting polls, need to be given a ride.
Our country is too great and too important, to be bought by those with so much money they don't even know what to do with it, and a Supreme Court that thinks a Corporation is a person.

[different clue]

Steve,

If the Republicans take the Senate, Obama will try yet aGAIN to conspire with them to destroy Social Security. Obama will check back in to do that. (He will also check back in to try advancing TPP, TTIP, and the Free Trade Conspiracy against America in general). But that is sort of a conditional prediction as to what Obama will try to do if the Rs take the Senate. I have no sense of whether they will or not.

If Republicans take the Senate, Social Security's only hope is that so many Republicans hate, loathe, and despise Obama so deeply that they would delay their natural drive to destroy Social Security in order to prevent Obama from getting credit for being the Great Historical Democrat who Went To China on Social Security.

[different clue]

Matthew,

I hope you are correct. My deepest fear is that Obama will conspire with the R majority to destroy Social Security and pass his Free Trade Agreements.
I hope the Rs feel too much hatred for him to join him in these projects.

[Tyler]

Lol the best thing about these threads is just by reading I can figure out who's wrong, who's right, and who's outta f-cking touch with America. Nancy and Laura, again, never fail to disappoint in that last category.

Alba, I think you're off base though. Grimes is polling horribly and her transparent attempts to portray herself as anything other than yet another Dem party appendage who will vote with the President 99% of the time are crashing and burning. I think she was going to lose anyway, but Project Veritas' video taping of her donors saying "Eff Coal" was the nail in the coffin. O'Keefe gets another scalp to mount on his wall. Good for him.

Nunn is going to lose despite the best attempts of the Democratic Party to gin up another "War on Blacks/War on Wimmen" narrative in order to turn out the vote since identity greivance politics is the modus operandi of the Progressive Marxists. A run off is not fatal for the Republican in this case.

I've had a good laugh watching these Dem Senators, who had Axelrod's hand up their keister, all of a sudden try to present themselves as some sort of independent party buckers. Top lol indeed. Don't get me wrong, the Republican Party has done its level best to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory with its total tone deafness on how America feels about the Treason Lobby and their amnesty. They should probably thank Dave Brat that they didn't get what they wanted; I don't think any of them see themselves ending up on an OIF style deck of cards after the USA falls apart. The people are going to blame someone for the destruction of America's civil society and transformation into an Ottoman bazaar with a song and a piece of cloth, after all.

Dave Brat crushing Cantor was the kick in the head for a lot of people, and kept the Republicans (by and large) from doing something retarded like running to the Left on immigration, the fools. I know Laura and the other Nice White Ladies like her (who only know coloreds through carefully screened Minority Playdates and the docile hired help) see the rise of the Populist Wing as a Very Scary Thing, but most of us aren't in a position to where importing a zillion foreign low IQ laborers won't affect us.

The indentured Republicans (I.E the make pretend moderates who think being more like the Left is the way to victory) will, of course, claim that they were the reason for winning and that the Party now must unite around their banner. The Populists are going to be more entrenched and well armed after this election, and unwilling to compromise with the go along to get along Democrat lites.

All the same, I'm still of the attitude the best we can hope for is a dead cat bounce to prepare for the velvet divorce. Right now law is created in one place: the Ninth Circus Court. Unelected federal mandarins deciding if we're wise enough to rule ourselves because muh 14th Amendment (which means whatever I want it to mean whenever I want it to mean it).

That these idiots don't know when to leave well enough alone is a great reason to make sure you're squared away and know your battle drills, just in case.

[Fred]

DC,

I have the same SS fear you do. Seems like some MD Democrats are tired of the same old lines out of the limousine liberal:

http://freebeacon.com/politics/rally-attendees-leave-event-after-obama-began-speaking/

[Cee]

Nancy,

Please let your mother know that Walmart is no longer providing any health insurance to their part time employees in spite of the billions they rake in.
I've never shopped there and see myself going without before I ever darken their threshold. I have friends and a very few relatives who still shop there who tease me about something they bought there because they know it will make me go off on a rant.

The following is another reason that people need to get out and vote. This man will take a paycheck from the government that he hates and will probably try to shut down, while hating poor people. Let me remind everyone that many of those poor people are VETERANS!!

http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/06/indiana-gop-candidate-no-one-has-the-guts-to-let-poor-people-wither-and-die/

[shege]

Regardless of who wins a majority in the Senate the business of the People will not get done. I believe members of Congress do not represent society at large; they represent the extremes of both parties who turn out in primaries, and once elected they cannot back down from their stated positions for fear of losing re-election. This will continue until demographic trends force a change in the behavior of politicians, and indeed the voting public. Until then we're in for some cruise-control government, absent a major emergency that brings everyone together.

Hunker down and ride out the next 8-12 years.

[steve]

different clue,

"Social Security's only hope is that so many Republicans hate, loathe, and despise Obama so deeply that they would delay their natural drive to destroy Social Security in order to prevent Obama from getting credit for being the Great Historical Democrat who Went To China on Social Security."

The dems are no more interested in preserving social security than the repubs.

He had enough dem votes last go around to do it, but the repubs back then had the same attitude you describe--they didn't want to give him credit for any Grand Bargain. You raise the question, would that change with a Senate controlled by the republicans? I don't know.

Also, the issue of increased taxes on upper incomes was a no-go for repubs. Would that be a factor next time? Again, who knows.

As I said, many of the Senate dems were for it last time, so imho looking at a dem Senate to "save" social security is thin ice. Unless you think the dems would have the cajones to filibuster an Obama proposal--if that's still an option.

[Fred]

The war on women will claim another victim: Terry Lynn Land. Of course it will be a Democrat who'll manage to do that. Though how she can lose to Gary Peters just proves that even an experienced politician can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

[steve]

Nancy K,

Imho,the country is bought regardless of which party wins. I think it's wrong to believe otherwise and wrong to believe that the dems are somehow less pernicious than the repubs.

By far, most important issues--war, surveillance, the support of narrow business interests (pharma, banking, insurance, the defense industry) over the general welfare of citizens have solid bipartisan support. They only differ on who can manage those issues better, not change them.

It was Obama who ruled out single-payer and a public option for healthcare and gave us the Heritage Foundation plan.

[SteveG]

Matthew

Obama like the Clintons before him knows
that to cross the Lobby his "speaking "
engagements and fees will evaporate
beginning immediately after January 2016.
His spine is shrinking at such an exponential
rate he will leave office standing at 4'11".

[Valissa]

People think their opponents are hate-filled—unless you pay them money; Cash for accurate judgments keeps people from thinking the opposition hates them. http://arstechnica.com/science/2014/10/people-think-their-opponents-are-hate-filledunless-you-pay-them-money/

Yes, money talks! Explains why lobbyists are so effective at getting bipartisan support for their overlords.

Personally I am surprised that so many people think it makes much difference who gets elected. The US is now, after all, officially a plutocratic oligarchy, AKA kleptocracy.

The only thing that keeps me voting is ballot questions. Plus I enjoy voting for independent and third party candidates. It's the only way I know how to say NO to the political duopoly. Real change will never come from voting for either the Democrat or Republican parties.

[SteveG]

Matthew
Correction. End of January 2017.

[curtis]

Senate 50-50

[GulfCoastPirate]

Tyler wrote:

'Lol the best thing about these threads is just by reading I can figure out who's wrong, who's right, and who's outta f-cking touch with America. '

Indeed. Thanks for all the laughs that followed. I especially liked the part about 'Populist' Republicans. Do you mean the anti-science, anti-knowledge, anti-women, anti-minority of any kind blowhards who are going to be up for reelection in 2016? The landscape for them is going to be looking very bleak in a presidential election year meaning even if the Republicans take the Senate not much is going to happen as everyone jockeys for position in 2016.

We'll all find out in 2016 which way the country is going to go.

[William R. Cumming]

WOW! That would really make the President of the Senate [Joe Biden] important. See Article I Section 3!

[Will Reks]

Maybe the easy answer is the best one in Land's case. She's not a very good politician and she's run a poor campaign. The war on women isn't less effective as an attack just because it's a woman on the other side. People are voting against the party these days. On the other hand, the woman in Iowa has a much better chance of winning.