Sic Semper Tyrannis

Obama's ME Strategy is a flop.

"General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. military's Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Iraq's government must be ready to arm Sunni tribes as a precondition for getting outside advisers into the western Iraqi province.

Washington hopes Iraq's government can rebuild the shaky alliance with Sunni tribes, particularly in Anbar which is now mostly under the control of Islamic State.

Asked about recent gains in Anbar by the militants and their executions of tribesmen in the past week, Dempsey said: "That's why we need to expand the train, advise and assist mission into ... al Anbar province."

"But the precondition for that is that the government of Iraq is willing to arm the tribes," Dempsey told a Pentagon news conference."  Reuters

-----------------------

Is this a joke?  The world seems to reflect the projections in the first SST war game.

The Shia government in Baghdad that the US created in the aftermath on our invasion NEVER HAD A RELATIONSHIP WITH THE SUNNI TRIBES OF ANBAR.  US Special Forces and USMC had the relationship, one that the arch courtier Petraeus latched onto when he saw it worked.  The post-grad students running foreign policy in Washington pissed that relationship away when they abandoned the Sunni tribes as part of their dream-world fantasy of a united Iraq, bound together by the results of purple thumbed elections.

Now, the ISniks are hammering home the lesson of their remorseless reaction to resistance.  They are teaching through terror that the tribes should not expect help from the US.  They teach that lesson by murdering all who in any way displease them.  How many hundreds of men, women and children have they killed in the last week?  The lesson is clear.  Submit or die.

While this goes on, the Obama Administration dithers and waits for a miracle to occur, a miracle in which the Shia decide to share power with the Sunni Arabs.  This miracle will NEVER happen.

How long does Dempsey think he has before all is lost in Anbar?  How long?  pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/30/us-mideast-crisis-usa-iraq-idUSKBN0IJ2ML20141030

**************

"The United Nations has warned that foreign jihadists are swarming into the twin conflicts in Iraq and Syria on “an unprecedented scale” and from countries that had not previously contributed combatants to global terrorism.

A report by the UN security council, obtained by the Guardian, finds that 15,000 people have travelled to Syria and Iraq to fight alongside the Islamic State (Isis) and similar extremist groups. They come from more than 80 countries, the report states, “including a tail of countries that have not previously faced challenges relating to al-Qaida”."  Guardian

-------------------

IMO there will be a larger and larger stream of such mujahid wannabees.  This is something like the flocking of leftists to Spain in the 30s for the purpose of fighting for the Spanish Republic and against Franco's brand of right wing nationalism.  In IS a lot of disoriented young Muslims see a chance to fight for something they find compelling.  In a world-wide population of over a billion and a half Muslims, even a very small percentage will produce a few hundred thousand volunteers.  Britt Hume, the faux news anchor, asked me soon after 9/11 how many suicide bombers the jihadis could muster.  I told him "thousands."  He scoffed.  pl  

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/30/foreign-jihadist-iraq-syria-unprecedented-un-isis

**************

"Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman of Israel said in a statement Thursday that the decision by the Swedish government to recognize a Palestinian state was unfortunate and would strengthen radical elements and Palestinian recalcitrance.

“The Swedish government must understand that relations in the Middle East are more complex than one of Ikea’s flat-pack pieces of furniture, and would do well to act with greater sensitivity and responsibility,” he said.

Israel said it was recalling its ambassador to Sweden to Jerusalem for consultation, according to Paul Hirschson, the Foreign Ministry’s deputy spokesman. “It’s an expression of a certain level of upset from our side,” he said."  NY Times

----------------

They are upset?  Soon they will be far more upset when France recognizes Palestine and then others across the world follow.  This will surely be followed by pursuit of action by the State of Palestine in the international courts against the State of Israel and named persons for war crimes and crimes against humanity.  Indictments would result in travel difficulties and the possibility of arrest on non-Israeli territory.  pl 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/31/world/europe/sweden-recognizes-palestinian-state.html?_r=0

Holder runs Missouri government?

"Asked at an event in Washington on Wednesday about reports that Chief Jackson might be leaving, Mr. Holder said: “It’s pretty clear that the need for wholesale change in that department is appropriate. The exact form of that change, I think we’ll wait until we complete our inquiry.”

Brian Fallon, a Justice Department spokesman, said the attorney general was not arguing for replacing the chief, but was referring to fixing structural problems he had identified when the investigation was announced earlier this year.

In Ferguson, firing a police chief requires a two-thirds majority vote at a hearing of the City Council. The chief could be fired only if he was guilty of certain violations described in state law, including committing a felony or endangering public safety.

Mark J. Byrne, a member of the Ferguson City Council, said there had been “no discussion whatsoever” of Chief Jackson’s resignation among council members. He also said that dissolving the police force had never been considered as an option among council members and that he would be strongly opposed to such a move."  NY Times

----------------------

Someone explain to me by what legal authority Eric Holder proposes to re-organize the government of Ferguson, Misouri.  pl

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/us/holder-adds-fuel-to-debate-over-fergusons-police-department.html?_r=0

"Team of Bumblers" Politico

"... But it’s clear the finger-pointing between the White House and Pentagon reflects no mere technicality. Both examples cited to me by well-placed sources close to the Defense Department offer new evidence of a criticism that has dogged this administration for most of its six and a half years: that Barack Obama’s White House is so insular and tightly controlled it often avoids “outside” consultation—including with its own cabinet secretaries and agencies. That’s especially true when the issue is one of this president’s least favorite things: opening up new hostilities in foreign lands. To his critics—and I spoke with several for this article inside Obama’s administration as well as recent veterans of it—it’s all a reflection of the slapdash way a president so vested in “ending wars” has embraced his new one.

Indeed, the Syrian-rebel incident recalled a more famous instance of White House surprise tactics a year earlier, when after a stroll on the White House lawn with chief of staff Denis McDonough, Obama embarrassed Kerry by abruptly deciding to ask for congressional approval for bombing the regime of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad—only hours after Kerry had publicly declared that Assad was facing imminent action. Ironically, Congress quickly balked at approval, humiliating Obama," Politico

------------------------------

These two articles encapsulate the criticism circulating in Washington with regard to the ineptitude of Obama's government in the foreign policy field.  Examples of the childish naivete of this administration are many and quite a few are recorded in these articles. 

As I have written many times, this is a foreign policy team dominated by inexperience and/or an obsession with academic thinking derived from too much time spent in college and not enough real world time on the ground in the places they theorize about.

Martin Dempsey is the one shining exception in this government.  God help us when he leaves.

pl 

Read more: http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/10/susan-rice-chuck-hagel-team-of-bumblers-112208.html#ixzz3HdYc76wI 

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/world/middleeast/mounting-crises-raise-questions-on-capacity-of-obamas-team.html?_r=0

 

Open Thread - 28 October 2014

Busy.  pl

US strategery and the restlessness of the natives.

"What we would like to see is for the FSA and the forces that we will
ultimately generate, train and equip to become the credible force that the
Assad government ultimately has to acknowledge and recognize. There is not
going to be a military solution here [in Syria]. We have to create so much credibility within the moderate Syrian opposition at a political level . . . that they earn their spot at the table when the time comes for the political solution. Now,
there could be FSA elements that ultimately clash with the regime, that may
well be the case, as they seek to defend themselves and those areas that they
dominate and as they seek to defend their families and their ways of life . . .
it could be an outcome. But the intent is not to create a field force to
liberate Damascus—that is not the intent. The intent is that in the political
outcome, they [the moderate Syrian opposition] must be a prominent—perhaps the preeminent voice—at the table to ultimately contribute to the political outcome that we seek."  Allen

----------------------------

Sweet 'Issa!  Has anyone run this "plan" by Lord Palmerston or Marshal Lyautey?  They actually knew something about colonial strategery.   So, we are going to make the phantom unicorn army of the FSA into something that will "earn its place at the table," and be "perhaps the preeminent voice" in the "political outcome that we seek."  Marvelous!  That should take a few decades but after that a mere ten or fifteen thousand US combat troops in real units (infantry, armor, aviation, etc.) will suffice to make it stick.  Maybe we could create ethnic/sect pure Syrian colonial units who would police the "peace."  What do the marines here say about this guy?  Is he another polished staffie like Perfect Peter Pace?  PL

http://www.aawsat.net/2014/10/article55337867

************************

“Based on past conflicts,” said one senior American military official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss delicate intelligence assessments, the missiles “are game changers out there.”

The proliferation of antiaircraft weaponry has also heightened concerns about the vulnerability of Iraq’s airports, particularly Baghdad International Airport, the country’s most important transportation hub and a lifeline for military supplies and reinforcements to Iraq.

 

 

Obama Vs. Putin, Platitudes Vs. Facts? - Walrus

I read President Obamas speech to the U.N General Assembly on 24th September and all I think I heard was platitudes and nominative langauge that can mean whatever a person most wants it to mean in their own mind.

For example; what does passage from the speech really mean?

"But we welcome the scrutiny of the world -- because what you see in America is a country that has steadily worked to address our problems, to make our union more perfect, to bridge the divides that existed at the founding of this nation.  America is not the same as it was 100 years ago, or 50 years ago, or even a decade ago.  Because we fight for our ideals, and we are willing to criticize ourselves when we fall short.  Because we hold our leaders accountable, and insist on a free press and independent judiciary.  Because we address our differences in the open space of democracy -- with respect for the rule of law; with a place for people of every race and every religion; and with an unyielding belief in the ability of individual men and women to change their communities and their circumstances and their countries for the better.

After nearly six years as President, I believe that this promise can help light the world.  Because I have seen a longing for positive change -- for peace and for freedom and for opportunity and for the end to bigotry -- in the eyes of young people who I’ve met around the globe.

 

"Who dares wins."

"Iraqi government forces retook four villages on Sunday near a mountain ridge overlooking Islamic State supply lines, security officials said, in a campaign which has struggled to make advances against the Sunni Islamist insurgents.

Iraqi security forces backed by Shi'ite militias gained some momentum on Saturday in their bid to loosen the grip of Islamic State, which controls large swathes of territory in the north and west of the country.

After months of fighting they drove Islamic State militants out of Jurf al-Sakhar, just south of Baghdad, while Kurdish fighters regained control over the town of Zumar in the north.

Sunni insurgents have been moving fighters, weapons and supplies from western Iraq through secret desert tunnels to Jurf al-Sakhar, Iraqi officials have said."  Reuters

------------------------

"Secret desert tunnels?"  They built those?  Wow!

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/25/us-mideast-crisis-iraq-idUSKCN0IE0I820141025

******************

"SAS and American special forces are working with Kurdish fighters on the Iraqi   front lines as part of a major offensive to push Isil jihadists back and   relieve pressure on the besieged Syria town of Kobane, senior Kurdish   military officers have disclosed. 

The Kurdish forces launched attacks just before dawn on three fronts - Rabia,   on the Syrian border, Zummar, a town near Mosul Dam, and a number of   villages near Daquq, south of Kirkuk. 

SAS and American special forces were working along these battle zones as   observers on the front lines as well as training Kurdish troops. Brig. Gen.   Hikmet also said that discussions were under way to give them a dedicated   base near the Kurdish city of Dohuk. 

"The [US and UK] special forces have been so effective for us,"   Brig-Gen Helgurd Hikmet told the Telegraph. "Their special forces don't  take any part in the fighting. They are only taking a role in training and   teaching, and also as observers. As observers they go to the front line, but   don't do any fighting.""  Telegraph

--------------------------

 Yes!  Yes!  De Oppresso Liber  pl 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/11131948/British-special-forces-join-fighters-on-Isil-front-line.html 

 

"An Unbreakable Bond"

"Israeli-U.S. relations are in terrible shape. Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Obama had a bad meeting this month. During the Gaza operation, for the first time, missile shipments didn’t go through automatically.

The issue of Hellfire missiles has been solved. It was a bureaucratic issue. 

It doesn’t look like an unbreakable bond if, in the middle of a war, the administration decides to review what has always been military-to-military arms transfers.

I can tell you that between the Pentagon and the Israel Defense Forces there is an unbreakable bond. 

What about the politicians?

We have disputes."  Weymouth in the Post

-------------------------------

"An unbreakable bond?"  There should be no unbreakable bonds between countries.  Countries exist to promote the interests of the state and its citizens.  Is Yalon saying that there are bureacrats in OSD who have been placed there and well dug-in so as to insure that Israel's interests will always be served no matter how offensive and arrogant Israel's policy and actions may be?  pl 

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/an-interview-with-israeli-defense-minister-moshe-yaalon/2014/10/24/4b44a218-5aca-11e4-8264-deed989ae9a2_story.html

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/oct/25/israeli-defense-minister-crisis-with-the-united-states 

http://www.timesofisrael.com/lapid-we-must-repair-relations-with-washington/

Related articles

"In the End, We Should Be Able to Defend Ourselves by Ourselves"

Obama and Netanyahu discuss ISIL, Iran

Obama team warns Israel over settlements

Revealed: U.S. Cut Off Arms Supply to Israel During Gaza War

Obama And Netanyahu's Tense Relationship In The Spotlight

"The March of Folly Redux" by Jack Connor

A century ago, a single act of terror struck down the established order of Europe. The act was not intended to reorder governance in the world’s great powers, but in spite of its original intent the world was never the same again.  Most especially for the millions of combatants who ended their lives in the mud. 

Once again the world is confronted with outrage by the barbarism of zealots.  Once again the great powers are being goaded into action.  And, once again there appears to be no clear vision regarding the probable outcome. Much like the military tactics of today, some may see the current strategy as coherent from 50,000 feet, but it is tangled beyond comprehension on the ground. 

The contradictions are beyond explanation. Funding Kurdish and Shiia groups in order to attack Sunni areas of Iraq in the hopes of uniting the country.  Expecting that a second Sunni awakening will occur as these communities are bombed from above, attacked on the ground, and absent the insurance of outside forces were able to play in 2006 - 2009. Supporting a “Free Syrian Army” that appears to be more myth than fact.  Identifying “secular moderates” in a country that has (at least by one estimate) 1,500 militias. All the while attempting to negotiate improved relations with Shiia theocracy, while using selected military forces from the Sunni monarchies as a fig leaf. 

This time the Western Powers are not being guided by the hubris that marked the First World War or even the second Iraqi war. At least hubris gives one a temporary confidence that “someone-up-there” knows what they are doing. Now we are being “led from behind”, embarrassed by the media’s fixation on disaster and horror.  But of course, the media’s fixation than has since moved on to Ebola, Ferguson, Ottawa, and all the other ADD moments of the 24 hour news cycle. 

As we enter yet another important election season, reasoned political debate has been replaced by sound bites, “gotcha” moments, and unending drivel and spin.  An honest comment is considered a gaff and the opposition is anything but loyal. 

Our fundamental weakness, in our celebrated and evolved “multicultural” society, is that we do not truly understand the ties of tribalism, clan, and blood. Ties that have governed human society for the millennia prior to the modern nation-state. Unfortunately, "the US is stepping into an extremely bloody, complicated civil conflict ....  taking sides in a sectarian and ethnic conflict, supporting some extremist groups against other extremist groups.”* It seems extremely doubtful to me that this experience will ever be considered another “Great" war and I suspect that it will be quite a while before we can reuse our "mission accomplished" banners. 

Quote from Raed Jarrar, Iraq political analyst*  http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/faultlines/2014/10/iraq-divided-fight-against-isil-2014102094753560718.html

Oh Canada ...

"Mr Baird said he was "tremendously concerned about the number of Canadians who are radicalised and are fighting in Syria or Iraq, but we don't have any evidence to link the two at this stage".

"Reports suggest that well in excess of 100 Canadians have gone to fight jihad in the Middle East and that's a huge concern," he said.

Mr Baird also said Zehaf-Bibeau could have done much more damage than he did.

"For several minutes it was complete horror, complete terror, we didn't know whether the door was going to be kicked in, whether there was one or a group of people," he said."  BBC

"Zehaf-Bibeau's mother, Susan Bibeau, told the Associated Press that she had lunch with her son last week - their first meeting in five years.

She said her son seemed lost and "did not fit in".  BBC

"Can you ever explain something like this?" she said. "We are sorry." BBC

---------------------------------

"Terre do nos aieux."   I offer my condolence for this terrible thing, particularly terrible in a land that has tried hard to become a peacable kingdom that is welcoming to people from across the world.

A few points:

- This dirt bag was not an immigrant.

- The idea that it is significant that he was not "linked" to IS, AQ or some other organized jihadi group is ludicrous.  THE CONNECTION IS IN THE MIND!!  You don't have to be a group member to have that connection.

- The video of the parliament's sergeant at arms walking down a corridor pistol in hand looking for the dirt bag is impressive.  IMO this man deserves a decoration for setting an example of courage and dignity under fire.

- The corporal who was killed at the war memorial was a reservist.  Why?   The Old Guard (3rd Infantry) at Arlington has no reservists in it.  Is this emblematic of the extent to which Canada's army has been bled dry of funds?

- Where did the dirt bag get the gun?

- The mother's simple statement has great dignity.  One can imagine the parents' pain.  pl  

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29752077

The Ferguson grand jury will not indict.

"Seven or eight African American eyewitnesses have provided testimony consistent with Wilson’s account, but none have spoken publicly out of fear for their safety, The Post’s sources said.

The St. Louis County Police Department and the FBI are investigating the shooting, and evidence gathered by both agencies is being presented to the grand jury, which started meeting in mid-August and is expected to conclude its work early next month.

The evidence the grand jury is reviewing is voluminous. From the beginning, St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney Robert McCulloch decided jurors would hear and review all credible and reliable evidence, including testimony from each eyewitness."  Washpost

************

"Dr. Judy Melinek, a forensic pathologist not involved in the autopsy, told the newspaper that the finding “supports the fact that this guy is reaching for the gun, if he has gunpowder particulate material in the wound.” Melinek also told the newspaper that the autopsy did not support witness accounts that the fatal shot, later, was fired while Brown was running away from the officer or had his hands up.        

The Post-Dispatch also reported Wednesday, citing an unnamed source with knowledge of the matter, that Wilson has told investigators that Brown pressed the barrel of the gun against Wilson’s hip during a struggle inside the officer’s SUV."  nbcnews

--------------

I am not a lwayer but have served on two grand juries, one state and the other federal.  IMO, no grand jury will indict Wilson.  Based on the above, there is not "probable cause" to believe that Wilson's killing of Brown was unjustified..  There is now witness testimony from several people that Brown tried to seize Wilson's sidearm and was shot in the process.  He then fled and Wilson shot him as was his duty in the case of a fleeing probable felon.  (attempted murder). 

The demonstrators want Wilson lynched.

There will be intense and widespread violence after the jury does not act.  This will be accompanied by the usual cheerleading of; the media, the Reverend Al, and the Jesse man.  What the Obama Administration will do is impossible to predict.

Get ready Missouri.  pl 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/new-evidence-supports-officers-account-of-shooting-in-ferguson/2014/10/22/cf38c7b4-5964-11e4-bd61-346aee66ba29_story.html?hpid=z6

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/michael-brown-shooting/report-autopsy-suggests-michael-brown-reached-ferguson-officers-gun-n231391

Kobane, Air Drops and the Turks

"The chilling sight of the Islamic State's black jihadist flag is still visible in  Kobane - despite Kurdish territorial gains and  weeks of sustained airstrikes by American and Arab warplanes.  The terrorist group was thought to have been pushed out of the centre of the besieged Syrian city after hundreds of brave Kurdish resistance fighters coordinated fierce street battles with coalition bombing raids - forcing the well-equipped jihadis to retreat into the outskirts of Kobane.  But this morning the group's black jihadist flag could clearly still be seen inside city, raised over a multi-storey building just a few hundred feet away from where the yellow, triangular flag of the Kurdish People's Protection Unit (YPG) could be seen fluttering above a largely destroyed housing complex.  The image emerged as American and Arab jets launched fresh attacks on ISIS positions in the north of Kobane - with pyrotechnic tracer ammunition lighting up the night sky and coalition warplanes destroying ISIS-held buildings with a barrage of air-to-surface missiles." Daily Mail

--------------

Well, pilgrims:

-  IS just retook a key hill on the west side of Kobane.  This elevation has changed hands a number of time during what the press mysteriously calls a "siege."  It seems more like the battle of Pork Chop Hill in Korea or any number of face to face serious fights that I can remember.

- I really feel for the poor bugger shepherd that you can see in one of these pictures taken from the safety of the Turkish side of the border.  His chance of keeping those sheep alive is slim.

- So far, the Kurds in the town rate the value of the supply drops as next to zero.  As someone on SST commented, "looks like an airborne trash delivery."  If we are going to do this, then we should stop playing the game of clearing everything with Baghdad and Ankara and just take charge ourselves.  Get some useful weapons; claymore mines, personnel and anti-vehicle land mines,  a lot of crew served machine guns,  a heap of plastic explosives, the aforementioned shoulder fired recoiless rifles a mountain of ammunition and medical supplies, some 81 mm mortars and go drop the stuff low, at night and as close to the Turkish border as you can manage.  I'll be glad to ride along as an in the way bundle pusher (term of art). There are others here who would also volunteer.  For god's sake, if this battle is going to be a symbol, let's not lose it because of the timidity of cookie-pushers in the WH and at State.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2804365/The-black-flag-ISIS-flies-Kobane-Chilling-sight-jihadists-emblem-just-streets-away-Kurdish-stronghold.html#ixzz3GywbI0Z4 Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

*************** 

"The attempted abduction, reportedly carried out by Turkish gang members whom the Islamic State enticed with a promise of $500,000, targeted a popular Syrian rebel commander who had crossed into Turkey seeking refuge from ongoing violence across the border, according to a report by the Washington Post. It was a close call for the commander, who was shot in the stomach before managing to escape — and the clearest indication yet that the Islamic State has established a potent network inside Turkey, the Post reported.

The incident occurred in Sanliurfa about 220 miles east of Incirlik Air Base, which is home to thousands of U.S. airmen and their families. Air Force personnel also are stationed in Ankara and Izmir, and the Army maintains two Patriot missile batteries — a rotational force of about 250 soldiers — in Gaziantep, about 150 miles west of Sanliurfa."  USATODAY

----------------

Once again, pilgrims this is serious business.  We have lots of military personnel in Turkey.  They are spread across the country.  pl

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2014/10/22/kidnapping-plot-in-turkey/17756353/

 

 

 

"The tenacity of Israel" By Richard Sale

If you enjoyed the first part of this piece, its excellence is not my doing. The asides and reflections are my own, but the text has mainly been based on a magnificent book, “Fortress Israel: the inside Story of the military elite who run the country – and why they can’t make peace,” by a former colleague and friend, Patrick Tyler. There are a lot of books on Israel lodged in my library, but Tyler’s is one of the best. 

It is history of the first distinction – accurate, incredibly well researched and brilliantly written. The excellence of his retailing certain incidents, his keen insights into the personalities of the actors, his talents of staging and his sense of connection with what he relates to a broader framework of cultural reference -- are all first class. 

But to return to the narrative. 

By 1956, in Israel, Nasser had become, “Hitler on the Nile.” This clearly displays a lack of proportion and certain hysteria, but it was a widespread Israel’s military. Egypt’s large, formidable army and its leader threatened Israel’s existence and France and Britain also shared this view. 

It was Egypt’s nationalization of the Suez Canal that led to a secret alliance between the British and the French whose purpose was to destroy Nasser his armies.

 

Syria/Iraq Diary - 21 October 2014

- I think it was the Beirut Daily Star that yesterday ran a story on its site that the US is sharing the fruits of air reconnaissance over Syria with the Syrian government.  The mechanism is supposedly through liaison contacts with the Russian and Iraqy governments.  The subject matter is IS movements and observed order of battle.  I can't find the article now.  Evidently The DS took it down, but the story makes sense to me and we know that Russia and the US are cooperating in the intelligence field.

- The US is making re-supply drop over Kobane using C-130 Hercules for the drops.  As an old paratrooper I can tell you with certainty that the drop altitude must be under 1,000 feet.  If it is above that the bundles will end up very scattered and IS is likely to recover some of them.  The danger to cargo aircraft making drops in daylight at that altitude is significant.

- Abadi, the new Shia friend of the US who is prime minister in Baghdad has now announced that he will not ask for the assistance of foreign ground troops because "no country on earth who has its forces in your territory will ever give you back your land."  Well, knothead, that is exactly what the US did and the president of the US has paid a high price for respecting your wretched sovereignty.

-  Business Insider reveals that the target intelligence on which US anti-IS strikes are based is so thin that they are largely ineffective and nobody has any real idea how much damage is being done to IS.  Is this true?

- Washpost has a story linked to below that details the level of IS massacres of Sunni Arab tribesmen who try to revolt against them  One tribal told a reporter that they saw what the US had done for the Yazidis and the Kurds and had hoped for something similar.

- "ISIS's core advantages which are strong battlefield leadership, significant tactical autonomy and aggressive tactics. Their battlefield tactics are somewhat reminiscent of the German Blitzkrieg campaigns in the early part of World War II. They use fast, well-coordinated forces with vehicle support to attack enemy weak points in strength under the cover of long range artillery and mortar fire.  A particular speciality is outflanking defensive positions and then mopping up defenders who attempt to retreat. The tactic is as much psychological as it is kinetic, and is greatly magnified by the horrendous and public brutality ISIS has systematically exhibited wherever it has gained control."  Auftragstaktik.    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mission-type_tactics

- What exactly is in the weapons bundles the US is dropping on Kobane?  Steve Clemons said "heavy weapons" on the tube this AM.  I don't believe that.  What exactly?   pl 

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29698930

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-airstrikes-in-syria-are-based-on-startlingly-little-intelligence-2014-10

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/syria-tribal-revolt-against-islamic-state-ignored-fueling-resentment/2014/10/20/25401beb-8de8-49f2-8e64-c1cfbee45232_story.html

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20141020/DEFREG04/310200024/Iraq-PM-Rules-Out-Foreign-Intervention-by-Ground-Forces

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/10/17/opinion/bronk-isis-guerillas/index.html?hpt=hp_c2

2014 Election Projections

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dre/politics/election-lab-2014

OK.  Name your poison.  pl

Syria/Iraq Diary - 19 October 2014

"...  two Islamic State car bombs hit Kurdish positions on yesterday evening, leading to casualties. A cloud of black smoke towered over Kobani on Sunday.

A fighter from one of the female units of the main Syrian Kurdish militia in Kobani, YPG, said Kurdish fighters were able to detonate the car bombs before they reached their targets.

“Last night there were clashes all across Kobani ... this morning the clashes are still ongoing,” she said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

The Observatory said 70 Islamic State fighters had been killed in the past two days, according to sources at the hospital in the nearby town of Tel Abyab, where Islamic State bodies are taken. These reports could not be independently confirmed due to security restrictions."  Irish Times

--------------------------

 General Austin, the CENTCOM commander, used much the same kind of figure the other day in a press briefing at the Pentagon.  IMO, nobody knows how many men IS is losing at Kobane.  How would they know?  I expect that they are using Syrian opposition reports as facts because we have no independent sources of data.  This has been a problem throughout the Syrian civil war.  Neocon entities like ISW and AEI have continuously used opposition reporting as though it were something other than propaganda. 

It appears that IS has "gotten the word" about the symbolic value of victory or defeat at Kobane and is reinforcing its efforts there.  Kobane may have begun as a diversion for IS but the battle now has a life of its own.

"Fortress Israel" (Part One) By Richard Sale

“British parliament’s decision this week to grant ‘Palestine’ diplomatic recognition is essentially a symbolic move since Britain’s government, headed by Prime Minister David Cameron, is not obligated to translate it into actual government policy.

“Passage of the motion, in contrast, legitimates (sic) the position that Israel is to blame for the conflict and that Palestinians are the weak side, in need of international support for their cause.” So said a recent article in The Guardian. 

 This new fact deserves some consideration and to understand it, we need to peruse an earlier time. 

The Jews of Europe had long been bossed, exploited, mistreated, humiliated, persecuted, and murdered. The Jews were among the best and brightest of the European peoples.  Nietzsche with great eloquence stomped on the anti-Semitism of his day by asserting just that, but clearly the Jews have had a tragic history. They had been thrown out of Spain; there were pogroms that targeted the Jews in Russia, and the culmination of Europe’s anti Semitism came with Hitler’s homicidal plan to murder them in an industrial scale, a crime so horrible that to think of it floods one’s heart with grief. That vast Nazi massacre destroyed the members of a benevolent, talented and optimistic culture and left the survivors with a sense of having been deeply wronged that nothing could make right.  “One can do nothing before the permanent soul of a race,” said Gustav le Bon, and that race not only survived, it flourished by establishing its own state in Palestine. 

“Nothing is more terrible than a body of men who have been afraid and are afraid no longer,” said Gustave le Bon.  The new state of Israel was not simply going to be settlers; they were going to be conquerors as well engaging in a constant battle to survive. 

In 1948, Israel had won its first war against the ill-disciplined, poorly trained Arab armies. Now, conscious of their uncertainty of their fate in the region, the Israelis spoke as masters of the situation.  Suddenly there was no one more aggressive in war than Israel’s military. They were aware of the helpless and slaughter by the Germans, but unfortunately, the wounds to self-love are the most difficult to heal.  Israel’s military were going to triumph at whatever cost and they would triumph because of their unending pugnacity and intellectual resourcefulness.  Their aim was to make the Zionist enterprise to succeed at all costs. “We will make a cemetery of France,’ said Carrier, “rather than fail to regenerate it in our own way.” 

Or as Robespierre put it, “The republic is the destruction of everything opposed to it.” That was the attitude of Israel’s military culture. It was to be inexorable, tireless, and endlessly devious. 

Israel knew that its neighboring Arab nations were resentful and very hostile, but their armies were divided, amateur and poorly trained, and Israel’s military was on the march. From the first, Israel’s military tried to concentrate the entire nation’s power in itself. The people is of a nation are far less excitable than a crowd; but certain events – national insults or threats of an invasion – can arouse it instantly. It is not always easy to explain the acceleration of certain sentiments under the influence of a constant, exciting cause but the Arabs provided the acceleration. Constant cross border attacks had killed any sympathy between the two groups, and to Israel, the presence of Arabs and the threat they posed could rouse Israel’s military in an instant. A lot of Israel’s aims embodied a desire for vengeance or conquest. This feeling can be seen in Israel’s unending pugnacity. Within just a few years after the victory of 1948, Israel became cocky and believed that it owed nothing to anybody. Being the Chosen to rule the nations of the Earth thanks, to a biblical promise, apparently exonerates you from playing by rules unless they are gamed on your favor. 

To take an example. 

 

"Boko Haram offers to swap kidnapped Nigerian girls for prisoners" Reuters (Republished 18 October 2014)

 
In light of the announced deal between the Government of Nigeria and Boku Haram this seems an appropriate thing to re-post. This was originally posted on SST in May.

"The leader of the Nigerian Islamist rebel group Boko Haram has offered to release more than 200 schoolgirls abducted by his fighters last month in exchange for prisoners, according to a video seen on YouTube. About 100 girls wearing full veils and praying are shown in an undisclosed location in the 17-minute video in which Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau speaks. Boko Haram militants, who are fighting for an Islamist state, stormed a secondary school in the northeastern village of Chibok on April 14 and seized 276 girls who were taking exams. Some managed to escape but about 200 remain missing." Reuters

----------------------------------

This has been a tragic event and the worldwide frenzy over it is also terrible. 

What a crock all this is!  Is it not clear that this whole thing has been a sophisticated ploy on the part of Boku Haram to "spring" their comrades from Nigerian jails?  And for this Michele Obama makes a continuing spectacle of herself on television and the 24/7 newsfreaks whip up their usual hysteria?  It's a damned good thing that this Shekaku fellow released his video before Michele succeeded in pressuring her husband into doing something foolish.

You can be sure that the girls are dispersed for the purpose of making operational planning difficult and that by now the Stockholm Syndrome has set in.  Trying to get them all onto the buses to leave Boku Haramian Islam would be a real task.

I suggest that a tri-partite delegation consisting of the Reverend Al Sharpton, the Reverend Jesse Jackson the elder (his son being otherwise engaged), and former everything Bill Richardson be sent to negotiate the release of the damsels in distress.  Perhaps Michele could perform an oversight function in this matter.  But, then, Kerry's interests should be considered.  That Nobel has proven elusive.  And then there are the electoral concerns of the old lady from South Carolina.  This could be a game changer for him.

We are the world!  We are the children!

pl 

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/12/us-nigeria-girls-idUSBREA4A0B620140512

http://time.com/3516883/boko-haram-cease-fire-nigeria-school-girls/

 

Some Good News From Iraq.

"Iraqi MPs have approved new defence and interior ministers, completing a unity government that is battling the spread of Islamic State militants.

Mohammed Salem al-Ghabban, a Shia, was appointed interior minister, while Khaled al-Obeidi, a Sunni, was confirmed as defence minister.

IS controls large parts of the country, and has been making gains despite US-led coalition airstrikes.

On Friday, a curfew was imposed in the city of Ramadi amid fierce fighting.

The vote by Iraqi MPs will be a big relief both inside and outside Iraq after weeks of wrangling, says BBC Arab affairs editor Sebastian Usher.

A more inclusive cabinet is seen as an essential first step in countering IS fighters, particularly among Iraq's Sunni minority, our correspondent adds."  BBC

----------------------------

This is truly hopeful.  The Iraqi Army is now trying to move north from Baghdad against Tikrit and the Beiji refinery.  We will learn something from ther success or failure.  West of Baghdad the government and IS are still fighting over control of Ramadi.  This is another key fight that will have a major psychological effect on the outcome of the war.  pl

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29674440

Related articles

Curfew in Iraqi city amid fears of advance by Islamic State

Iraq MPs approve two key ministers

Skype

I have decided to do Skype.  Any of you who want that contact with me can send a contact request for walter.lang73  I will approve some of them.  pl

"Plague and Ebola" by Richard Sale

I came across this in Daniel Defoe's book on the Great Plague in London. I always remember Napoleon who went among his stricken soldiers in Egypt. RS

"The net effect was more people living in crowded and insanitary conditions than ever before, alongside a thriving population of rats, whose fleas carried the plague virus.

The outbreak was believed to have started in December 1664 after goods imported from Holland were carried to a house in Long Acre. Initially deaths were few and restricted to the St. Giles and Long Acre areas. By June however, there were signs it had spread to the City and after sixty-eight deaths in St. Giles, the hope it would be short-lived and parochial was shattered: 'Now there died four within the city, one in Wood Street, one in Fenchurch Street and two in Crooked Lane'." Defoe

The author, a well-connected city merchant, locates his address with characteristic exactitude: 'I lived without Aldgate, about midway between Aldgate church and Whitechapel Bars, on the left hand or north side of the street'. (Whitechapel Bars marked the eastern boundary of the City’s liberties at the junction of Aldgate High Street, Whitechapel High Street and Petticoat Lane).

"A Caliph in a wilderness of mirrors" by Pepe Escobar

"In Kobani, the former third-biggest town in Syrian Kurdistan, in the far northeast, The Caliph also wins big. Another biblical exodus has reached 300,000 refugees - and counting, with over 180,000 headed to Turkey. 

The Caliph counts on indirect help from The Sultan (or alternate Caliph), aka Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. Tehran is - rightfully - furious, as it sees the "West" - and Turkey - betraying the Kurds all over again. It's no secret Sultan Erdogan is doing nothing because he wants to screw the guerrillas of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and the Syrian-Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD); let them die instead of repelling The Caliph and then be strong enough to threaten Turkish domination of those huge, essentially Kurdish patches of Anatolia. Thus the only thing Sultan Erdogan does support is aimless bombing by the Pentagon cum coalition of the clueless-cowards.

Anybody who believes the US Central Command's spin that House of Saud and United Arab Emirates fighter jets conduct "bombing raids" on the outskirts of Kobani gets a one-way ticket to Oz. Imagine these clowns being able to deploy precision-guided bombs or trained laser spotters. To start with, the Pentagon has zero local intel - as in zero operatives able to paint lasers on targets. Thus the "coalition" can barely hit the odd tank (out of 25 around Kobani) or Humvee out of 2,000 crammed in a valley for almost two weeks now. "  Pepe Escobar

-------------------------------

Just  take the time to read it.  It's a great read!  pl

http://atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-01-151014.html

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 3b - Summary of Game Situation as of 4 July, 2015

By the 4th of July, 2015:

NW Syria Front.

SAR forces have consolidated control over Aleppo and are re-occupying border posts to the north and west of the city.  IS forces have withdrawn to the NE of Aleppo under severe pressure from SAR ground forces as well as SAR air force and US combat aviation.  The US continues to deny the obvious tacit cooperation with Syria,

KAR Front.

PM forces with support from both the US and Iran have advanced to positions in which they control Kurdish populated  areas in Iraq.  The KAR government states that it does not intend to advance further into IS controlled areas.  The KAR government does not believe that it has the strength that would be needed to retake Mosul.  There has been a large scale evacuation of Kurds from all the areas of northern Iraq.  These Kurds are fleeing into the KAR.  The KAR government states that it will not attempt to take any action in Syrian Kurdistan but that refugees who make their way to the KAR will be welcomed.  Delivieries of US supplied equipment to the KAR continue through Iranian ports and are tranported to Suleimaniya by Iranian transport.  Obama Administration efforts to bring 1 USSFGA de facto liaison to an end have failed.  There have been several instances of violent confrontation between CIA and Green Berets over this issue.

Anbar/Baghdad Front.

The Iraqi/Abadi government "suspended" most governmental functions  in Baghdad as of 1 May 2015.  The government is moving to Nasiriya far to the south.  In response, the US Embassy has largely abandoned its compound on the west bank of the Tigris and is moving to co-locate with the government at Nasiriya.    Some US military functions continue at the former embassy.  AH64 Apaches are operating from within the compound.  A battalion of USMC have been airlifted into the embassy compound to join the battalion + already on the scene.  BIA is entirely in the hands of IS.    All of Anbar is under IS control.

Jordan Front.

 Jordanian Army has deployed to combat ready positions in the north and around Ma'an in the south.  There is now a combined division sized armored task force in position at Azraq Air base in eastern Jordan.  TF  Hashemi consists of two US Stryker brigades, a French light armored brigade, and the Jordanian 40th Armored Brigade.  TF is OPCON to Jordanian Army.  A prince of the royal house is in nominal command.

 

Open Thread - 14 October 2014

pl

Did Israel Bomb Parchin?

"Iran instructed Hezbollah to attack Israeli forces on the border with Lebanon in retaliation for the “bombing” of Iran’s Parchin nuclear facility, a Kuwaiti newspaper reported.

The report Friday in the al-Rai newspaper cites high-level Washington-based European diplomats, who said a “foreign country” was responsible for the bombing of the military base and suspected nuclear facility."  JTA

-------------------------------

Bibi likes to say that Israel reserves the right to act in its own self defense.  IMO Israel could manage a small scale air attack of this sort.  The problem is that such an attack would be an act of war.  Does Israel really want war with Iran and/or Hizbullah?  pl

Read more: http://www.jta.org/2014/10/10/news-opinion/israel-middle-east/report-iran-ordered-hezbollah-to-carry-out-attack-on-israel-over-nuclear-facility-bombing#ixzz3G2FMFAGM 

 

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 3 - Forecast of events until 4 July 2015

Summary of events in game world/game time from 5 November 2014 to 1 March, 2015.

Kobane Front.

In spite of increased US air support Kobane was totally in IS hands by 15 November.   Several thousand residents fled across the border into Turkey before the end came.  Over the next several weeks IS staged several execution dramas for the TV cameras waiting on the hillside across the border from the city.   The UN estimates the number of executed to be more than 5,000.  IS has kept several more thousand residents alive and display them on roof tops for the benefit of US air reconnaissance. This has effectively stopped US air attacks on the city.  IS forces previously concentrated in the action at Kobane have moved to other positions along the border or to the Aleppo area.  Kurdish rioting has built steadily in Turkey since the fall of Kobane.  These riots have been put down with severity by the Erdogan government's police.  There have been numerous instances of intercommunal conflict across Turkey between ethnic Turks and Kurds.

Aleppo front.

SAR forces completed encirclement of Aleppo before the end of the battle at Kobane.   IS forces returning to Aleppo have repeatedly tried to break the Syrian lines of circumvellation but have failed in spite of heavy employment of suicide truck bombers as part of their fire plans for attacks.  Syrian and US air attacks are occurring in close proximity to each other against much the same IS forces who are trying to break the SAR siege.

Turkish Front.

In December, Turkey announced its revocation of permission for the French Navy carrier battle group's presence in the Black Sea as well as for over flight clearance for anti-IS air operations in Iraq.  Turkey stressed that emergency landing rights for damaged French aircraft would still be available at Batman.  France withdrew from the Black Sea in January re-positioning the battle group in the Mediterranean Sea NE of Cyprus where it began air operations against targets in northern Iraq.  Syria's foreign minister expressed satisfaction with that as well as blanket overflight clearance for French aircraft from the De Gaulle to and from Iraq.  Syria also offered to exchange IFF codes with France to prevent accidental engagements.  It is believed that France responded favorably to the offer.  In February a group of active and retired senior Turkish Army officers attempted to depose Erdogan's government.  The attempt failed when Turkish Jandarma units loyal to Erdogan blocked the attempt of a Turkish Army brigade to occupy the capital, Ankara.  The brigade has been disbanded and many of its officers and soldiers arrested and held for trial for treason and mutiny.  The generals and colonels who instigated the coup attempt have fled into hiding within Turkey.  The government accuses the Army of hiding them within Turkish Army cantonments.  In March Erdogan allowed IS to open two more consulates.  One is in Antakya and the other in Erzerum.  This action and the cancellation of the waiver for France in the Black Sea has caused backchannel discussions in NATO of the possibility of expelling Turkey from NATO. Russia has made it clear that it would not veto a resolution condemning Turkey in the Security Council so long as the resolution includes economic sanctions.  China has not expressed an opinion with regard to such a resolution.  Ambassador Samantha Power has made a public statement that the US opposes such a resolution.

Kurdish Front.

Covert and unacknowledged US/Iranian cooperation has continued in building up the Pesh Merga. US aircraft are now operating in significant numbers from KAR airfields.  Equipment and supplies are now arriving with Iranian cooperation in overland deliveries from Gulf ports.  These deliveries have enabled a steady build up in PM capabilities.   The KAR government has made it clear that it has no interest in advancing its forces beyond what it considers to be authentically Kurdish territory.  The KAR government has made it clear that it will not attempt to relieve Baghdad or any other area under Iraqi covernment control if such operations endanger Kurdish forces.

 

"A Brief Note on Islam" by Richard Sale

 The U.S. media constantly belittles, derides, or haughtily stares down its nose at Islam when it doesn’t slander it, and the media does these things hour by hour, day in, and day out.  Almost all the judgments of Islam in the media are political judgments which have no basis in fact. They are made in ignorance and one wonders such judgments can be made with such facility since there has been no attempt by reporters or commentators to inform themselves of the facts of the world’s great religions. American reporters describe Islam as a shadowy, vaguely criminal menace whose reach extends to the edges of the Earth and whose presence darkens the light of the sun.  It is a system that desires to enslave free men, they say. No distinctions are made between the bloodthirsty, predatory fanatics in Iraq and Syria who use Islam to gain their own self-interested ends, and a religion whose goal is to improve and enlighten human conduct and perfect the human mind. In other words, it’s a bit like saying that the Sicilian Mob is merely a form of Capitalism. 

The so--called “Christian Right” in America, whose main motive is to inflame its own sense of self-righteousness, displays very little, if any, sound understanding of Christianity, and they by instinct deride Islam, and their preachers appear to be cut from the same coarse cloth of ignorance, rigid bigotry, hostility and inane dogmatisms that inhabit much of the media. I listened very briefly to a local TV broadcast where a Christian preacher described Muhammad as a kind of Arab Hitler gobbling up the countries of Belgium and Holland. Everything was conquest, everything was consolidation and slavery. My jaw dropped as I listened. Clearly, there is not in this man’s Christian nature, any hesitancy, any caution, nor any sign of wanting to respect what he did not know. His vulgar goal was to cry up Christianity and cry down Islam. One wonders what was the effect of this ignorance had on his followers. It clearly would not be a good one. 

This mischaracterization of Islam is truly disgusting to anyone with any mental integrity. 

One of the most interesting expositors of Islam was Sayyid “Ameer Ali (1849-1928) He makes it clear that Islam was based on sound ethical and metaphysical principles. It believed, he said,” in the unity, immateriality, power, mercy and supreme love of the Creator.”  It believes in charity and brotherhood among mankind; it believes in subjugating the passions; its followers are to manifest an outpouring of gratitude for what God as created and given them since is God s generous and good; it believes in the accountability of human behavior in reference to an afterlife.   (The good in God’s eyes goes to heaven, bad goes to hell.) 

 

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 2 (Forecast to 1 March 2015)

Situation as of 5 November 2014

Diplomatic Front

Russia, France and Turkey have agreed to a one time exception to the Montreux Convention to allow positioning of the French Navy De Gaulle carrier battle group in the eastern Black sea for the purpose of air operations against IS in Iraq.  France does not want to participate in Syrian operations.  France does not want to lured into overflying Syria.  Turkey will allow overflight of eastern Anatolia to and from Iraq.  Turkey will also allow forward positioning of French naval SAR at Batman and emergency landings at Batman, Mus and Erzurum as necessary. Russia has offered the French battle group port privileges at Sebastopol for ship chandler and re-fueling operations.  France has yet to respond to this offer.

Turkey continues to deny the US the use of its airbases for offensive operations in either Syria or Iraq. Turkey seems to believe that it has enough leverage over US to force US ground participation in decisive campaign against the Syrian government as well as in establishment of a "no fly zone" in Syria that would inevitably result in direct combat between US and Syrian air forces.

Iranian assisted Pesh Merga forces in eastern Iraq continue to receive US air support.  This unacknowledged cooperation between Iran and the US is effective.

Syria's foreign minister stated once again on 1 November that Syria is pleased with US intervention against IS forces and positions. Syrian and US aircraft are carefully avoiding each other by mutual consent.

Terrorist Front

In Jordan, IS sympathisers attacked and killed two American tourists at Petra on the 20th of October.  Three French tourists were kidnapped on 25 October from the vicinity of one of the Ummayad hunting lodges in the eastern desert near Azraq air base. The kidnappers were Saudi beduin who took the French back across the border into the northern Najd where they have posted Utube videos demanding multi-million Euro ransoms for each one.  They state that if their demands are not met they will begin beheading the captives in the name of the Caliph Ibrahim.  The Saudi government has made no effort to rescue these people.

German police have apprehended an Al-Qaida affiliate cell in Hamburg. The group was well advance in planning a bombing attack against the NATO headquarters in Brussels.

Political Front

The US mid-term election resulted in Republican gains in the House of Representatives and control of the senate by the GOP 53-47.  On 5 November, Senator McConnell, the presumptive next majority leader, demanded that President Obama take firm and decisive action against Islamic terrorism and IS in particular or face decisive action with regard to failure to  "defend the United States." A large group of Republican senators voiced immediate agreement.  Washington is overflowing with media hyped rumors that Obama is about to seek a new civilian national security team.

By 5 November a dozen new Ebola cases had appeared in the US causing a serious distraction from foreign affairs.  Many more had appeared by then in Europe.  Media personalities excoriated public health officials on both continents.  In west Africa the first cases of US military personnel displaying signs of what might be Ebola had appeared by 5 November.

President Obama had not, by 5 November, authorised a US ground presence in Iraq or Syria other than as operations advisers, trainers and guard for the embassy in Baghdad.  As a result the nearest US ground combat units were in Kuwait and Jordan.

Kobane Front

By 5 November IS had taken 90% of the town, in spite of the large number  of coalition air strikes, many of them flown, at Kurdish request, by US heavy bombers against targets inside Kobane.  These had failed to halt IS' advance but killed many Kurdish defenders and destroyed much of the city.  On the 2nd of November IS brought a hundred Kurdish prisoners to the Turkish border where they were executed for the TV cameras.  This was staged for network news.  In the fighting for Kobane throughout the latter half of October the IS used suicide truck bombers as part of their attack fire plans, rolling the trucks forward through their infantry lines to detonate them just before assaults.

Aleppo Front 

More and more IS fighters have returned to the Aleppo area for the purpose of trying to stop the Syrian Army's finalization of the encirclement of the old city.  US air activity has followed them and as a result, US aircraft are now (5 November) flying missions against ground targets presently engaged by the Syrian Army.

KAR front.

US aircraft are now operating from several KAR airfields. Erbil, Suleimaniya, etc.  USArmy's first SFGA is present in increasing numbers in the KAR.  They are returning to the region with many of the people who were instrumental in the "awakening."  Contacts are being re-established and these SF soldiers are returning to the tribal areas behind IS lines.  Most of 1 SFGA are engaged as adviser/trainers with the Pesh Merga.

Anbar Front

Nearly all of Anbar Province was in IS hands by 5 November.  Captured M198 155 mm. howitzers have been emplaced in camouflaged singleton positions within range of BIA.  "Searching fire" against the airport began in late October.  Two HE shells landed on the apron in front of the passenger terminal on the 25th.  The dozen airlines that had been operating through BIA then "suspended' operations until safety could be assured.   In the last week of October, IS artillery fire against the airport improved in accuracy. The reason for this was revealed when several airport employees were arrested by the secret police and charged with spotting for IS artillery and reporting by cell phone.  These arrests were followed the next night by a ground suicide bomber attack on aviation fuel stores at the airport.  It had been hoped that the provision of counter-battery radar to Iraqi Army artillery would enable them to suppress IS artillery, but, in the event, Iraqi Army artillery commanders have declined to advance to firing positions from which they could be effective.   IS sympathisers in the area report Iraqi Army firing positions by cell phone and the resulting fire is more than than the Iraqi Army want to experience.  

Baghdad Front

Large numbers of Shia have begun to leave the area of Baghdad west of the Tigris.  More and more arms caches in that part of the city are being discovered by the police.

----------------

Based on this statement of the situation as of 5 November- 2014, forecast your views as to what is likely to occur between 5 Nomber, 2014 and 1 March 20.

Real world time for inputs for this turn will expire at 1600 GMT, 12 October 2014.

DO NOT FIGHT THE PROBLEM. The game is intended to be a pedagogic tool for sharpening our understaning of outstanding issues.  IT IS NOT intended to be predictive of the future.  pl 

 

SOF is Oversold. - Mass Counts

(RT Alaska's pocket badge is an example of SOF humor)

It has become clear that media hype over such operations as the Bin Laden raid has created a false impression of the value provided by such military entities as the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), US Navy SEALS, and US Army Special Forces (Green Berets).  Many people now seem to think that these highly specialized, lightly armed and thinly manned units are the equivalent of line infantry (to include the sub-categories of ranger battalions and parachute infantry), artillery and armor

In fact, mass matters a lot in warfare.  SOF units do not have mass.  They have great skill in prosecution of the missions for which they were designed:

-  In the case of counter-terrorist commandos such as Delta, SEALS, and their supporting air and HUMINT units, the mission is raiding and killing or capturing enemy terrorist targets.  This mission is much like that of US domestic civilian police Special Weapons and Tactics units.  Such units are inherently small, lightly armed and largely untrained in the business of engaging a larger, determined enemy in a prolonged engagement.   Nevertheless, the image that has been formed of these units is that of super-soldiers who, by their existence, make conventional ground forces obsolete,   The Rumsfeld regime in DoD contributed mightily to the formation of this image through its negative attitude toward conventional ground forces.  Larry de Rita, Rumsfeld's fair haired boy once told me that their ambition was to make the whole US Army more like SOF.  I tried to explain to him what a bad idea that would be but his eyes quickly glazed over.

 - US Army Special Forces (Green Berets) I was one (am one).  Although GBs can do raids with the best of skills, their real expertise is in training and in some cases leading foreign irregular or counter-guerrilla forces.  Such activities are normally conducted by small teams of highly qualified soldiers who are expert in dealing with foreign people and who exhibit a talent for that activity.  Such men do not "grow on trees" and they should not be wasted by committing them to battle as though they are infantry.  There have been occasions in which GBs or GB like soldiers have generated large formations of what came to be very like conventional forces when given artillery support.  US resistance forces in the Phillipines in 1944-45 were very like that.

IMO the US Army has been wise in struggling to retain a balanced conventional force as the basis of the Army structure.  The big units will always be needed in a serious land mass fight.

USMC and CIA capabilities are similarly limited in scope.  I may write about them in the future.    pl 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_forces

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Forces_(United_States_Army)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Special_Operations_Command

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 1b - Forecast of events until 5 November 2014

Move 1b. 

With this move we transition from yesterday's effort to describe the present real world situation to a more expansive sense of the nature of this game.  

From this point forward in the game we will operate in the context of scenarios written by Turcopolier Control.  These scenarios will be generated for each turn on the basis of the initial scenario (given below) as modifed by Turcopolier Control (TC) on the basis of your various situation inputs.  Scenarios will reflect both real world factors and TC opinion as to the meaning of some of the data.

Remember - No Sasquatch marines (an interesting thought) or return of the Mahdi to judge us all.

SCENARIO 1 - game date 7 October 2014

Kobane front.

Turkey continues to be the anvil in the hammer and anvil IS operation at Kobane while Turkish forces stand by observing the slaughter of President  Erdogan's Kurdish enemies in the city. Turkish forces continue to block movement of Kurdish fighters into the city from the north as well as free evacuation of Kurdish farmers and their animals across the border into Turkey.  Riots have begun to break out in SE Turkey cities like Diyarbakir but also in Istanbul and Ankara. 15 people have been killed thus far by Turkish security forces.   Unrest among dissident elements of the Turkish population is spreading across the country

 

IS/Coalition War Game - Move 1, The Situation as of 7 October 2014

We are going to play a game on SST.  This game will be a miniature version of the large scale politico-military games played by a number of corporations under contract to government entities in Europe and the United  States.  This game is based on the general principles of government gaming and does not derive from any company's proprietary interest.  The purpose of this game will be educational for all of us participants rather than implied policy prescriptions as in many government contract games.  These threads (each move) will not preclude other threads in parallel. 

The subject of the game will be the probable course of military and geopolitical events in the war between IS and the anti-IS coalition constructed by the United States over the next six months. Although IS and the coalition are the principal players, all those parties whose interests are involved in the contest can be introduced as additional players by participants.  Diplomatic, economic, political and military elements of the situation are to be included in the play.

The game will be played in "turns."  W. Patrick Lang (turcopolier) will act as umpire, omniscient observer and control for the game as Turcopolier Control.   The period of time available for completion of a task will be stated when each sub-part of a turn is posted.

The first turn will consist of two parts:

- A data call from players for statements of the real world  situation as of this date - 7 October 2014.  Estimates will be submitted to SST as comments on this post.  24 hours from time of posting for this sub-part will be allowed. After that time has passed Turcopolier Control will issue a consolidated situation statement based on the inputs and his judgement.

- Based on that new situation statement the players will be asked to forceast events for the next month for all the parties portrayed in the game.

In the second turn, Turcopolier/Control will issue a new scenario based on the results of Turn One:

- Based on that revised scenario participants will be asked to forecast additional play for the parties to the game for two additional months.

The Third Turn will be a continuation of this process.  The game will continue until it is judged to no longer be fruitul.  Participants are cautioned that fantasy inputs will not be tolerated or accepted, i.e, intervention by God (deus ex machina), beings from outer space or the like.

In any turn following the initial situation assesment, participants may request diplomatic talks with a player or a specific information input. Such information may or may not be available.  In all such exchanges, Turcopolier Control will be the actual interlocutor.

These rules are subject to revision mid-game by Turcopolier Control. The game is proprietary to SST.

Turcopolier Control looks forward to your inputs.

Game play begins now.  pl

War Diary ME - 6 October, 2014

- IS now holds the eastern part of Kobane.  IMO they will hold the rest soon but will not try to cross into Turkey.  IMO Erdogan made a deal with IS over trading captives and a present abstention from violence on the part of IS in Turkey.  IS already has a large fifth column in Turkey.  The Turkish Army forces on the border at Kobane are there as a reminder to IS of the nature of the deal.

- Joe Biden's frank remarks concerning Gulfie and Turkish early support of Islamist groups in Syria and Iraq were important.  Biden may be a blowhard but he is certain to be well infomed of the Obama Administration's understanding of the situation.  What is revealed in his remarks about Turkey is that the Obama Administration still thinks of Erdogan as an ally and relies on his word.  This is foolish.  Erdogan continues to block US combat use of Incirlik and Batman air bases.

- As I have written before, US air was remarkably ineffective in interdicting IS BEFORE they penetrated Kobane.  With IS in the town the air will be even more ineffective.  Some of this has been caused by USAF/CENTCOM chain of command problems brought on by tight ROE.  Some may result from Turkish pressure for us not to help the Kurds.

- The Syrian Armed Forces continue their drive to encircle Aleppo on the northern side of the city.  They are having considerable success.

- The IS effort to wreck the Iraqi government at Baghdad continues. The US is now employing AH 64 Apache gunships to try to hold back IS who are approaching BIA from the west (Abu Ghraib).  A lot of the New Coalition activity and billeting is on the west side of BIA and inside the wire/berm.  IS has a lot of AA weapons now. we may lose some aircraft.  I wonder who/what are defending the perimeter at BIA  pl  

http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/03/world/meast/syria-civil-war/

http://original.antiwar.com/updates/2014/10/04/baghdad-surburb-of-abu-ghraib-falls-to-isis-228-killed-across-iraq/

http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2014/10/05/242220_us-helicopters-pressed-into-combat.html?rh=1

"U.S. strikes in Kobane fail to stave off militants, face limitations" Al Bawaba

 

"Without forward air controllers in Kobane, fighter pilots likely find it difficult to distinguish friend from foe, particularly as the IS militants seek to move among civilians to conceal their location, said Ben Connable, a retired Marine Corps intelligence officer.

"We probably don't have good enough intelligence to separate all the prospective targets from friendly fighters," Connable, now a senior anlayst at the RAND Corporation think tank, said.

Even with the advanced cameras and sensors on US warplanes, clearly identifying an enemy target remains difficult, and even more challenging in poor weather, Connable said.

"It's hard to tell," he said. "You may think you have identified something in a video, but you may not have."

But Kurdish leaders and some critics in Washington have accused President Barack Obama of taking an overly cautious approach, arguing that US air strikes could stop IS extremists in their tracks if it the full potential of American air power was unleashed.

Retired US Air Force lieutenant general David Deptula said the air crews flying the combat missions are hampered by cumbersome procedures and restrictive approval rules for strikes that are undercutting the impact of the campaign.

"There is a sense and there is feedback that there are too many people trying to micro-manage the application of air power," said Deptula, who oversaw air campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan.

In Kobane, "there needs to be 24/7 constant overwatch, and every time there are ISIL (IS) troops, vehicles, weapons that are observed -- they need to be hit immediately," he said." al-bawaba

---------------------------

Some things change little over time.  This is often little appreciated among the bird men.   Boring Anecdote:  I was sitting in the day's ops briefing in Tay Ninh Province CORDS Headquarters one day in 1968. The ops adviser's deputy, a captain, was briefing the days events. The Province Senior Adviser (PSA), a USAID civilian, was sitting in front of him, looking glumly at the floor. 

The briefer droned on.  "And at coordinates -----, a light fire team from the umpty umpthed Attack Helicopter Battalion engaged 4 large yellow stake bed trucks and enemy troops.  The trucks were left burning and six KIA were visible on the ground."  

The PSA looked up.  "Say that again."

The nervous captain read the item again.

"God damn it! I just gave that logging company a permit to work in there.  God damn it!"

The representative of the helicopter unit looked both defiant and defensive.  "We don't know anything about that..."

Those of you inclined to think that incidents like that are/were rare or peculiar to American efforts are just wrong.  Personally, I have always been fearful of "friendly" air when they were going to hit anything near me.  

Nowadays we are told that the airmen have such wonderful instruments as JSTARS and the F15E Strike Eagle that, taking its data from JSTARS, can magically fire missiles and guided bombs at targets with pinpoint accuracy and then just turn away letting the gadgets take over.

Well, boys and girls, "it ain't necessarily so."  As was so beautifully explained in "Jurassic Park," in regard to chaos theory, if there are a lot of moving parts in any phenomenon, something will inevitably go wrong.  In air attacks the consequence is often a lot of dead civilians or meaningless strikes.

We have a lot of very brave and capable men in the Green Berets who are quite willing to take their chances with the Kurds in Kobane or in other places.  Their use as JTACS forward controllers would greatly improve the effectivenes of US air.  pl 

http://www.albawaba.com/news/us-strikes-kobane-fail-stave-militants-face-limitations-610011

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northrop_Grumman_E-8_Joint_STARS

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McDonnell_Douglas_F-15E_Strike_Eagle

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_terminal_attack_controller

"Syrian army fights for last major rebel route into Aleppo" Reuters

 " ... clashes were ongoing in the villages of Sifat and Dowir al-Zeitoun, around eight kilometres (5 miles) north of Aleppo.

Civilian Abdullah Qatmawi, 30, said he was unable to drive directly to Aleppo because of the blocked road. "When we arrived to the northern countryside (of Aleppo) we felt there was a problem on the road and when we arrived to Handarat there was fighting," he said.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which tracks violence in the country, said the army was not yet in control of the main road but that clashes centred around Handarat, a northern Aleppo district, had blocked the route.

"If the army can take and hold Handarat, then Aleppo will be under siege," Observatory head Rami Abdulrahman said by telephone."  Reuters

-----------------------------

We have all been focused on Kobane on the Turkish border far to the east of Aleppo but that is nothing like as important as this encirclement and coming siege of Aleppo.  As is often said, Aleppo is the second largest city of Syria.  The central parts of the town have been in rebel hands for two years and a kind of pseudo-normality had returned.  There is actually a theatrical production underway in the rebel held area.  

If the Syrian Army succeeds in surrounding the city, then as RE Lee said of  his ill prospects after the lines firmed up at Petersburg, "it is only a matter of time."

The war against IS will go on for a long time but the loss of Aleppo would be a severe blow to the rest of the rebels.  A lot of non IS jihadis are now deserting to join IS.  This would accelerate the process.

In the meantime the Turks continue their passive-aggressive behavior and IS prepares for something big in Anbar.  A great mystery (to me) is the ineffectiveness at Kobane of US air.  IS artillery is sitting out in the open there.  pl  

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/03/us-syria-crisis-road-idUSKCN0HS0V820141003

"ALLARD: An open letter to the Director of National Intelligence" Washtimes

"Jim, you were selected as DNI because of your reputation as the kind of leader people instinctively trust. More than anyone else, you also understand that the president is responsible for the nation’s intelligence system, his decisions and preferences inevitably determining the quality of intelligence he receives. If the chief executive deliberately averts his eyes from the real world, then the fault rests neither with you nor the intelligence community. Presidents are accountable for the advice they take as well as what they choose to ignore, including ISIS. But if he won’t listen, then why should you stay?

My friendly suggestion is that you and the nation’s other top generals step away from this president, letting history decide his fate. A generation ago, your predecessors failed to confront their president over his leadership of the Vietnam War, thus sharing full responsibility with LBJ for every subsequent tragedy in that long debacle. The vital lesson from their example: Far better to resign with honor rather than to let down the American people who pay your salary."  Allard

------------------------------------

I don't believe I know Allard. 

pl

Read more: http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/oct/2/allard-open-letter-director-national-intelligence/#ixzz3F81psvLO Follow us: @washtimes on Twitter

 

IS holdings on the ground.

There is a dearth of reliable or even plausible information about the ground combat situation in Syria, Iraq and the greater Middle East.  Let us make a thread here that publishes such information in detail.  pl

"... a battalion of tanks"

"Ramadi / NINA / A security source in Anbar operation command announced that the Islamic State (IS) controlled all surrounding areas of Hit district, west of Anbar. 

The source told the reporter of the National Iraqi News Agency / NINA / "The elements of the (IS) attacked, at dawn today, Hit district from three directions , the first is the military headquarters and checkpoints internal and external, the second direction is the main roads to cut off military supplies to the district, and the third attack is to targeting the checkpoints with 3 car bombs, which led to stagger the armed forces defending the district as a whole. 

The source added, "The number of martyrs and wounded in the ranks of the security forces reached 74 in the primary outcome , including 42 martyrs and dozens missing, and the elements of the (IS) captured a battalion of tanks, the headquarters of the Infantry Regiment, the headquarters for the leadership of the border guards of the Fourth Region, the Police Department of Hit and 5 police stations in the district, stressing that the battles are going on between security forces and elements of the (IS) ."  NINA

 --------------------------------

In the Iraqi "army" a battalion of tanks is what?  35 Russian made T-72s or older?  54 US made M1A1s?  Presumably they captured the Heavy Equipment Transporters (HET) as well?  It used to take me an hour or so to drive from the Rashid Hotel near the present US Embassy to the Club Med type resort on the NE shore of Lake Habbaniya.  That distance was about 50 miles.  Hit is not far from there to the NW on good, hard surfaced roads.  That is probably another 50 miles.  Saqlawiya Camp is closer to Baghdad than the Club Med place and it is in IS hands.  

The method of these attacks is interesting.  Supposedly, first they go for C&C objectives, then they cut the roads leading to the east and possible support, then they attack roadblocks with vehicular suicide bombers.  It must be convenient for a commander to have a few human bombs available for jobs like this.  The suicide attacks demoralize.   On a humorous note one must wonder how they pick the suiciders.  Perhaps they have a company formation and the first sergeant calls out "All those not wanting to be a rolling martyr bomb at Hit tomorrow take one step backward!  Ah, not so fast Bilal!"  That was a joke, people.  pl 

http://www.ninanews.com/english/News_Details.asp?ar95_VQ=HHDKME

*******************

""BAGHDAD / NINA / Baghdad Operations Command announced the seizure of a number of improvised explosive devices, and materials involved in the manufacture of improvised explosive devices and the arrest of wanted persons in different parts of Baghdad during the past 24 hours. 

The Command said in a statement today that "the security force seized, based on the confessions of one of the terrorists, sticky bombs, lighters bombing, and Mobile a number of Kalashnikovs, in Dora district, while another force seized an explosive device, seven mortar rounds , and materials involved in the manufacture of improvised explosive devices, in one of the bricks factory, south of Baghdad. "

The statement added that "the forces arrested a number of terrorists in different parts of Baghdad over the past 24 hours ." "

------------------------

Needless to say, I have been anticipating something like this.  IMO this is the Sunni 5th column making preparations for action in western Baghdad.  pl

 http://www.ninanews.com/english/News_Details.asp?ar95_VQ=HHDLGD

Ebola

You all are desperate to have an Ebola thread.  I have dumped your OT comments on this in the interest of keeping my records sorted out.  pl 

"America’s Never-Ending War in the Middle East" by the Leveretts

"While President Obama continues – at least for now – to resist redeploying large numbers of U.S. soldiers to fight the Islamic State on the ground, the military components of the anti-Islamic State strategy he has laid out effectively recommit the United States to its post-9/11 template for never-ending war in the Middle East. In the end, such an approach can only compound the damage that has already been done to America’s severely weakened strategic position in the Middle East by its previous post-9/11 military misadventures."   Leveretts

----------------------------       

That is an interesting picture.  I am not quite sure who in the ME has flamethrower tanks built on an American chassis.

The Leveretts are correct in estimating that the US is embarked on a suicidal voyage in the Middle East but I have some doubt as to whether or not bin Laden conducted the 9/11 attacks for the specific purpose of luring the US into self-destructive wars in Islamdom.   In the old movie "Fort Apache"  Lt. Col. Owen Thursday responds to an assertion concerning his Indian opponent's cleverness with "and at which staff college did Cochise study?"  Thursday learned that day that Cochise did not need to attend a staff college but bin Laden would have benefited from the experience.  If bin Laden really did have that in mind, he and his colleagues and the Taliban have paid a very high price for his cleverness.  

Be that as it may be, the main point of the article is certainly correct.  The US will wreck itself if it continues to fight these ruinously expensive wars against the jihadis.  IMO the IS wants to build a salafist state across the Middl East and South Asia.  To that end they must achieve control of the assets now possessed by Saudi Arabia.

Would IS welcome a chance to inflict as many casualties on the US as possible?  Certainly they would but that would be a means to an end and not the end itself.  pl

 http://www.worldfinancialreview.com/?p=2906

The end of the beginning of the end?

"The prime minister’s body language was that of a man suffering intestinal discomfort. As soon as the cameras went on for the brief “pool spray” (a pre-meeting photo op with a small group of journalists), Netanyahu uncrossed his legs and tugged at his lapels. He placed his left palm on his left leg and appeared to drum the fingers of his right hand on the chair. Netanyahu nodded as Obama extolled the U.S.-Israel relationship, and an “mmm” of agreement was audible when Obama said Americans “should be very proud of the contributions that we made to the Iron Dome program to protect the lives of Israelis.”"  Dana Milbank

*************

"Through 2014 the United States has provided Israel with at least $115 billion in economic and military aid ($239 billion, adjusted for inflation). American financial, diplomatic, military and intelligence support for Israel is not only massive and unconditional, it has accelerated since the early 1970s. Some attribute that acceleration to Israel becoming a Cold War regional force. However 1970 was also a turning point for U.S. Department of Justice enforcement of the 1938 Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA). The Justice Department abandoned all serious attempts at enforcing FARA on Israel ‐linked entities after losing large battles with charities lobbying for aid, including the Zionist Organization of America, the Jewish Agency's American Section (which now receives U.S. taxpayer funding) and the American Zionist Council (which transformed into the American Israel Public Affairs Committee six weeks after a 1962 FARA order). 

Israel is now the largest cumulative post‐war recipient of U.S. foreign aid."

Grant Smith

----------------------

Rather than provide the Zionophile community an opportunity I will let you contemplate this without my editorial help.  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/dana-milbank-another-awkward-obama-netanyahu-meeting/2014/10/01/89948a20-49ad-11e4-891d-713f052086a0_story.html

http://www.irmep.org/09302014_USFATI.pdf

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Israel%E2%80%93United_States_military_relations

 

Movement by infiltration and the defenses of Baghdad

The assumption that IS cannot move its forces because of coalition air action is widespread.  IMO that is an over simplification.  If that were true then why is it that IS continues to capture bypassed Iraqi garrisons in Anbar as well as continuing the siege of Kobane on the Turkish border?  At Kobane IS artillery is active in shelling Kurdish defenses.  Artillery pieces are easy to see from the air and IS are the only people using artillery in the Kobane area.  Therefore ...

The truth appears to be that the amount of available coalition air is insufficient to "shut down" IS activity.  Sortie rates, distances from launching air bases, availability of ordnance must all be factors. If the Turks decide to enter the war on the side of the coalition, this situation would improve greatly.

As things now stand I would agree with TTG that a well scheduled program of movement by infiltration would likely "swamp" the available air resources to such an extent that a lot of materiel would arrive at intended destinations.  Combined with traditional Maskirovka activity the effect could be dramatic.

This brings into focus the defenses of Baghdad itself.  IMO disruption of GoI activity has to be the most important intermediate objective for IS before they move on to SA.  Anbar Province to the west of Baghdad is largely in the hands of IS.  The Iraqi military have proven themselves incapable of correcting that situation.   American military personnel are engaged in guarding the US embassy and presumably in providing some security at Baghdad International Airport west of the city proper.  Most of the American soldiers on the ground are in staff jobs that do not directly contribute to the defense of the city/airfield.  That defense rests on the shoulders of the much defeated Iraqi Army.  Defeat is a habit that forms in the minds of the much defeated.  Weapons do not fight.  Soldiers fight. Would these Iraqi soldiers fight well this time or would they once again flee?  pl

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maskirovka

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Zone