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02 September 2014

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ex-PFC Chuck

Babak,
Cynic that I've become as my country has devolved these past few decades, I can't help but hypothesize that the information the NSA has been vacuuming up on our allies (not to mention the rest of us) has come in very handy when applied to the task of keeping the "pares" in line.

turcopolier

ex PFC Chuck. You have seen too many movies. pl

Aka

Piotr,
1.First of all I don't think you understand the meaning of the word bluff.

"an attempt to deceive someone into believing that one can or is going to do something."

So whatever putin was doing, he wasn't bluffing. He did "annexed" crimea and supported a insurgency in Ukraine.

2. Poland and Baltic states are NATO members (Unless you have already forgotten what NATO is).

And he (Zhyrinovsky) also "proposed to sell the disputed Kurile Islands to Japan for 50 billion USD". Does that sound something that any Russian government would do?

3. What exactly was NATO doing in Ukraine? As Colonel mentioned earlier, NATO don't have a intelligence gathering arm of its own. And if a essential neighbor is going to join a hostile military alliance, wouldn't Russia be worried about that?

4. Well some would feel that but many others would feel the other way.

5. If you a really desperate for WW III there are much easier ways to start it. Make a declaration of war and start it. Then you wouldn't have to worry about selling your apples.

Overall I felt that EU & NATO were in a too much hurry to accept these former Warsaw pact members. Other EU countries had very little beef with Russia for many decades. But former Warsaw countries given their recent experience (with USSR) had lot of resentment towards Russia.

NATO is not organization for concurring Russia (or starting a war with Russia). NATO is a organization for AVOIDING a war with Russia. Many seems to have missed that point.

About LNG (shale gas) in US, reading typical western news (or any news media in the world) is not going to give you any real facts. Try these.

http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2014/03/ukraine-russia-and-nonexistent-us-oil.html

http://resourceinsights.blogspot.com/2012/09/tar-sands-oil-shale-and-heavy-oil-why.html

Robert44

You needn't worry Walrus, Angie knows all of this and actually has an intelligence department of her own.

Her problem is how to do what is right for her country while still being occupied by the United States.

Her answer has been to publicly read whatever script she is given by the State Department, while quietly working with whatever discretion she has to distance herself from the policies of the Obamanation creating space for Germany to wheel and deal particularly within Europe.

She is really quiet adept at doing this.

pit

I must agree with Babak nad Chuck, recent developments in Polish politics, clearly shows that Germany - Russia alliance, comes to its end. The new strongest Force settles the game and its neocon US unfortunately...

Kyle Pearson

I am curious, Colonel, if the parting between you and VIPS was amicable, or was there some underlying point that pushed you to part ways with them?

proximity1


I put a great deal confidence in the views publicly expressed by William Binney.

So, as I understand you and the team behind the open letter, the photos shown to the press to support the claim of Russian prep. for a possible invasion ---have been deliberately faked? Is that right?

Ulenspiegel

IIRC Gehlen did not even speak Russian. He got his job as head of Fremde Heere Ost because he was the least of some evils, not because he had special knowledge.

The predictions of Fremde Heere Ost were usually not very good, therefore, I find it a little bit puzzling that Gehlen was able to sell his stuff to the allies in 1945 for a quite high price.

proximity1


Your letter means, then, that the supposedly supporting arial reconnaissance photos were faked?

Patrick Bahzad

I would say, this statement about Merkel having to conform to DC is ridiculously overstated.

Ulenspiegel

@Robert44, B. Makkinejad,

I think you both misinterpret Merkel:

Merkel had no problems not to follow the USA in Libya, if she really thinks a non-confrontational approach would work with Putin, she would at least have said so. We saw or heard nothing.

Quite contrary, some of her remarks in the last weeks, statements of her foreign minister, and the interesting speech, that president Gauck gave in Poland without any "corrections" from Merkel's team afterwards(!), IMHO clearly point to the conclusion, that Merkel does see Putin's actions as the major issue in this mess and that she is willing to pay for an economic punishment of Russia.

OTOH the German government has opposed almost all military actions like deployment of NATO ground forces to Poland or Baltic states or delivery of weapons to Ukraine.

turcopolier

All

Gehlen was an officer of the army general staff. his assignment to head the foreign armies east staff section was altogether a matter dictated by general staff assignment decisions. He never pretended to have any special knowledge of the USSR. That was not his function. At the end of the war he was clever enough to make himself and his staff people attractive to a US Army coming to the realization that the USSR was going to be the next "real enemy." The US had no intelligence files or collection capability against the USSR. When you have nothing, something, anything looks good. pl

turcopolier

All

As I have said several times recently I have not been associated with the VIPS group for four or five years and I had nothing to do with the Merkel letter. We parted company when it became clear to me that the group had become more and more an instrument of egotistic self satisfaction. pl

Patrick Bahzad

Im not sure I'm following ... several points:
a) regarding Lybia, Germany didn't follow the US, they actually chose to abstain during a decisive vote at the UN Security Council, which caused a lot of bad blood with several NATO partners (especially given the akward statements by German FM Westerwelle);
b) regarding the whole Russia-Ukraine situation, we have to consider the statements made by various political figures, producing a certain narrative, and put that into context with the actual policies and measures taken on the ground.
Only if you put at least these factors in the balance, can you draw a more global picture of the German attitude towards Russia and Ukraine. This is why it is fundamentally wrong to see Merkel as a partisan of a confrontational approach with Russia. But she has to balance the benefits of reassuring Estern European nations and building up their confidence as the leading European nation against the back-ground of the absolute necessity of a deescalation of the conflict and a normalisation of relations with Russia, which is of paramount importance to the Germany in many regards.
This is why Madam Merkel always has to walk the fine line between not being perceived as an appeaser towards Russia and not antagonize the Russians too much, in order to keep her status as "honest broker" as intact as possible.
This is independent of her personnal opinion about Putin as responsible or not for the current crisis, and is dictated by the geopolitical dynamic of the crisis and its implications for both Germany and Russia, as well the most of Central/Eastern Europe.
In short, she's following and pursuing a policy that accomodates German interests first and foremost, just as it should be for any head of government.

Patrick Bahzad

Not saying there is no NeoCon agenda for Ukraine, but your statement as it stands is a dystopian view of the ongoing conflict that is both misguided and ill-informed.

Patrick Bahzad

FB Ali and kao_hsien_chih:
Don't read too much into events that dictated the creation of the BND. this happened more than half a century ago, and while there has been both pro- and anti-russian schools of thought in Prussia and Germany, what is happening today has nothing to do with that.
As far as recruitment goes, I'm not sure what you're trying to say and anyway, the BND has never been very good at HUMINT. They are however quite efficient at certain forms of SIGINT (i'm over-simplifying deliberately to give you an idea).
Regarding the influence BND sitreps have on Chancelor Merkel's decisions, i would be very cautious as well ... I'm pretty sure what German corporation bosses say, carries much more weight with her than any intelligence estimate the BND might come up regarding ukraine.
finally, the thing about dropping the ball with some neo-nazis in Germany did not involve the BND, but the "BfV" domestic security and intelligence agency.

Babak Makkinejad

2 Months ago, Putin was pleased enormously with Merkel - why was not Merkel's idea taken up by the entire NATO?

No my friend, directive has come from DC and all the allies are falling into place.

Madhu

That is a very interesting comment. So, if Putin would stop with the proxy and border stuff, some sort of deal with the Ukrainians could be had in that estimation?

I really find that point about Merkel interesting, it does seem that she is sticking to the point with sanctions; being firm without being escalatory regarding military actions? The internal politics of NATO and its various constituents always fascinates me as an American because they seem far more nuanced and complicated than the way in which our media generally discusses them, so many factions with so many different ways of thinking about the world.

I have to drag up a forgotten nineties book I'd once looked up about group dynamics between leaders in NATO countries and how forms and habits develop from a sort of Brussels interaction....

NIce comment.

Madhu

Yes, thank you. Interesting comment. Given the internal and external politics of NATO, this must be a very interesting process.

Babak Makkinejad

From Australia:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-29/dal-santo-we-must-heed-kissingers-prophecy/5704704

Babak Makkinejad

Putin had been pleased with Merkel's ideas which they had discussed several times by phone.

Why were those ideas not taken up by the rest of the alliance?

Why is no one among European leaders opposing this mad dash for control of Ukraine - the Border Country?

Ukraine is too far from Spain, Portugal, UK, and France.

Why are these European leaders acting as though Ukraine is next door to them?

Are Spaniards, British, French, Portuguese ready to die on the steppes of Ukraine - like Italians, Germans, Romanians, and Hungarians did during World War II?

Evidently the answer is "Yes."

Else they would have accepted Putin-Merkel ideas.

Babak Makkinejad

I do not buy the idea of "Neo-cons", the alibi of so many brain-damaged policies.

Please take the trouble of explaining to myself and others in what manner this policy of tweaking the Bear's nose was formulated across 28 countries and put into operation?

Who is responsible, do you know, across 28 countries?

Babak Makkinejad

What policy except appeasement is possible against Russia in her near-abroad?

If Russian leaders determine that the occupation of the 3-Baltic states is a matter of state survival for the Russian Federation, what can NATO do?

Piotr, Poland

OK, Sorry. I'll be more polite next time.

Aka

All,
Is anyone watching the news about Ukraine ceasefire cause things are confusing at best.

Poroshenko seems to have announced a "permanent ceasefire", then edited the "permanent" part out and the Kremlin has announced that Putin can't agree to a ceasefire because Russians are not officially involved in this conflict and any negotiations should be between Kiev and Pro-Russians (Putin's original position).

Also Kremlin has "officially" threatened the European Commission President over the leaked "kiev in two weeks" remark that unless the EU president makes his objections they would release the full transcript.

http://rt.com/news/184548-putin-barroso-conversation-kiev/

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