Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) - Letter To Angela Merkel Re: Ukraine. Posted by Walrus.

The Veteran Intelligence Professionals For Sanity have written to Angela Merkel, the Germqan Chancellor, regarding the Ukraine situation. Perhaps Col. Lang might like to comment on this matter.

My concern is that NATO is going to tread where angels fear. There was a signifigant body of thought prior to World War One that contended that the world economy was even then so integrated that rational considerations of "trade" would trump the warlike computations of the major powers. British Army uniforms were dyed with German aniline dyes and all that. I suspect that the Washingtonians subscribe to similar assumptions today.

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MEMORANDUM FOR: Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany
FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
SUBJECT: Ukraine and NATO

We the undersigned are longtime veterans of U.S. intelligence. We take the unusual step of writing this open letter to you to ensure that you have an opportunity to be briefed on our views prior to the NATO summit on September 4-5.

You need to know, for example, that accusations of a major Russian "invasion" of Ukraine appear not to be supported by reliable intelligence. Rather, the "intelligence" seems to be of the same dubious, politically "fixed" kind used 12 years ago to "justify" the U.S.-led attack on Iraq. We saw no credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq then; we see no credible evidence of a Russian invasion now. Twelve years ago, former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, mindful of the flimsiness of the evidence on Iraqi WMD, refused to join in the attack on Iraq. In our view, you should be appropriately suspicions of charges made by the US State Department and NATO officials alleging a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

President Barack Obama tried yesterday to cool the rhetoric of his own senior diplomats and the corporate media, when he publicly described recent activity in the Ukraine, as "a continuation of what’s been taking place for months now … it’s not really a shift."

Obama, however, has only tenuous control over the policymakers in his administration – who, sadly, lack much sense of history, know little of war, and substitute anti-Russian invective for a policy. One year ago, hawkish State Department officials and their friends in the media very nearly got Mr. Obama to launch a major attack on Syria based, once again, on "intelligence" that was dubious, at best.

 

Largely because of the growing prominence of, and apparent reliance on, intelligence we believe to be spurious, we think the possibility of hostilities escalating beyond the borders of Ukraine has increased significantly over the past several days. More important, we believe that this likelihood can be avoided, depending on the degree of judicious skepticism you and other European leaders bring to the NATO summit next week.

Experience With Untruth

Hopefully, your advisers have reminded you of NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s checkered record for credibility. It appears to us that Rasmussen’s speeches continue to be drafted by Washington. This was abundantly clear on the day before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq when, as Danish Prime Minister, he told his Parliament: "Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. This is not something we just believe. We know."

Photos can be worth a thousand words; they can also deceive. We have considerable experience collecting, analyzing, and reporting on all kinds of satellite and other imagery, as well as other kinds of intelligence. Suffice it to say that the images released by NATO on August 28 provide a very flimsy basis on which to charge Russia with invading Ukraine. Sadly, they bear a strong resemblance to the images shown by Colin Powell at the UN on February 5, 2003 that, likewise, proved nothing.

That same day, we warned President Bush that our former colleague analysts were "increasingly distressed at the politicization of intelligence" and told him flatly, "Powell’s presentation does not come close" to justifying war. We urged Mr. Bush to "widen the discussion … beyond the circle of those advisers clearly bent on a war for which we see no compelling reason and from which we believe the unintended consequences are likely to be catastrophic."

Consider Iraq today. Worse than catastrophic. Although President Vladimir Putin has until now showed considerable reserve on the conflict in the Ukraine, it behooves us to remember that Russia, too, can "shock and awe." In our view, if there is the slightest chance of that kind of thing eventually happening to Europe because of Ukraine, sober-minded leaders need to think this through very carefully.

If the photos that NATO and the US have released represent the best available "proof" of an invasion from Russia, our suspicions increase that a major effort is under way to fortify arguments for the NATO summit to approve actions that Russia is sure to regard as provocative. Caveat emptor is an expression with which you are no doubt familiar. Suffice it to add that one should be very cautious regarding what Mr. Rasmussen, or even Secretary of State John Kerry, are peddling.

We trust that your advisers have kept you informed regarding the crisis in Ukraine from the beginning of 2014, and how the possibility that Ukraine would become a member of NATO is anathema to the Kremlin. According to a February 1, 2008 cable (published by WikiLeaks) from the US embassy in Moscow to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, US Ambassador William Burns was called in by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who explained Russia’s strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine.

Lavrov warned pointedly of "fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene." Burns gave his cable the unusual title, "NYET MEANS NYET: RUSSIA’S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES," and sent it off to Washington with IMMEDIATE precedence. Two months later, at their summit in Bucharest NATO leaders issued a formal declaration that "Georgia and Ukraine will be in NATO."

Just yesterday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk used his Facebook page to claim that, with the approval of Parliament that he has requested, the path to NATO membership is open. Yatsenyuk, of course, was Washington’s favorite pick to become prime minister after the February 22 coup d’etat in Kiev. "Yats is the guy," said Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland a few weeks before the coup, in an intercepted telephone conversation with US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt. You may recall that this is the same conversation in which Nuland said, "Fuck the EU."

Timing of the Russian "Invasion"

The conventional wisdom promoted by Kiev just a few weeks ago was that Ukrainian forces had the upper hand in fighting the anti-coup federalists in southeastern Ukraine, in what was largely portrayed as a mop-up operation. But that picture of the offensive originated almost solely from official government sources in Kiev. There were very few reports coming from the ground in southeastern Ukraine. There was one, however, quoting Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, that raised doubt about the reliability of the government’s portrayal.

 According to the "press service of the President of Ukraine" on August 18, Poroshenko called for a "regrouping of Ukrainian military units involved in the operation of power in the East of the country. … Today we need to do the rearrangement of forces that will defend our territory and continued army offensives," said Poroshenko, adding, "we need to consider a new military operation in the new circumstances."

If the "new circumstances" meant successful advances by Ukrainian government forces, why would it be necessary to "regroup," to "rearrange" the forces? At about this time, sources on the ground began to report a string of successful attacks by the anti-coup federalists against government forces. According to these sources, it was the government army that was starting to take heavy casualties and lose ground, largely because of ineptitude and poor leadership.

Ten days later, as they became encircled and/or retreated, a ready-made excuse for this was to be found in the "Russian invasion." That is precisely when the fuzzy photos were released by NATO and reporters like the New York Times’ Michael Gordon were set loose to spread the word that "the Russians are coming." (Michael Gordon was one of the most egregious propagandists promoting the war on Iraq.)

No Invasion – But Plenty Other Russian Support

The anti-coup federalists in southeastern Ukraine enjoy considerable local support, partly as a result of government artillery strikes on major population centers. And we believe that Russian support probably has been pouring across the border and includes, significantly, excellent battlefield intelligence. But it is far from clear that this support includes tanks and artillery at this point – mostly because the federalists have been better led and surprisingly successful in pinning down government forces.

At the same time, we have little doubt that, if and when the federalists need them, the Russian tanks will come.

This is precisely why the situation demands a concerted effort for a ceasefire, which you know Kiev has so far been delaying. What is to be done at this point? In our view, Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk need to be told flat-out that membership in NATO is not in the cards – and that NATO has no intention of waging a proxy war with Russia – and especially not in support of the ragtag army of Ukraine. Other members of NATO need to be told the same thing.

For the Steering Group, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity

•     William Binney, former Technical Director, World Geopolitical & Military Analysis, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)
•     David MacMichael, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
•     Ray McGovern, former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA analyst (ret.)
•     Elizabeth Murray, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Middle East (ret.)
•     Todd E. Pierce, MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (Ret.)
•     Coleen Rowley, Division Counsel & Special Agent, FBI (ret.)
•     Ann Wright, Col., US Army (ret.); Foreign Service Officer (resigned)

 

Comments

[Aka]

Walrus,
even if this does not result in a WW III or a Russian invasion, this whole affair would change the way lot of people would look at US.

Colonel says that the things which are happening now are not part of a some "grand strategy". Given his insight, he is most likely correct. However, for the paranoid who's expecting much more sophistication from US policy makers, this may look like a "grand strategy" to protect the US Hegemony.

It would look like US has intentionally created this Ukrainian mess to hamper the growth of Russia and break the relationship between Europe and Russia. Even worse it may look like that US is pushing its Ally (the EU) to a economic abyss just to achieve its goal.

World is never going to be the same. And Russia may assert that the West or US may never allow it to rise up again. They may change their policies according to their new view, finding ways to minimize the US power (mainly economical power).

[turcopolier]

Walrus

I parted company with VIPS a long time ago. pl

[turcopolier]

aka
Your IP address is at 0/0 lat/long. Very clever. I don't like "clever." There is no Grand Strategy. There is only a simple minded belief in American exceptionalism and an ill educated desire to be the boss in everything. These people Obama/Rice/Power/Kerry are incapably of real plotting. They are puffed up children who still think history has ended. pl

[Aka]

dear colonel,
i didn't knew my address would show that. It's probably because of the networks I'm using (wireless dynamic IP & a organizational network). And it has more to do with economics (mine) rather than cleverness. However my country is clearly shown in the map. Since my current e-mail address is given, I did't expect my identity to be a secret.

I'm not disputing what you are saying sir. What I pointed out was for a paranoid mind/ or a less informed person this may look like a "grand-strategy".

This may be a "grand fiasco" but how would Putin or any other interested party see this? Would they see this as a "grand fiasco" or a "grand Strategy"

[Bill H]

Colonel
Given his statement that "Russia is a regional power" and that they "do not want a war with us because our military is much larger," do you think he is operating on the premise that he can function as he wishes because Putin will posture and bluff but will not pull the trigger because he is afraid of us?

[William R. Cumminh]

Walrus, PL, and ALL:

Given its large membership how does NATO gather, collect, process, Intel?

Make DEMOCRACY safe for the WORLD--historian John Lukacs!

[turcopolier]

WRC
NATO does not do intelligence. the member states do. NATO headquarters does write some intelligence documents as part of its normal functions. pl

[turcopolier]

BillH

Obama and pals think that human society is now unified under American leadership and therefore, for them, Russia is a rogue state that must be disciplined. They can't grasp the idea that their view of the world is not accepted by others. pl

[The beaver]

All:

Australia, so far a non-NATO ally and a member of the 'five eyes" ( formerly ECHELON) group has been invited to be a NATO partner.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/02/us-australia-nato-crisis-idUSKBN0GX0BY20140902

and already the Australian FM is seeking to exclude Putin from the G20 meeting.

http://www.news24.com/World/News/Australia-seeks-to-exclude-Putin-from-G20-summit-20140902

[David Walsh]

Well done folks.
Let us hope Angela Merkel will take note.
Otherwise we are blundering into a general war in Europe and very possibly WW3.

This was tweeted by Zbigniew Brzezinski ‏today:
China should firmly warn Putin that his reckless actions threaten global economic stability.

This man is clearly living in a twilight zone of insanity.
The reckless actions of the Washington regime, of which is a senior memeber, are putting our civilisation and our planet at risk. I applaud your courage in speaking out.

[William R. Cumminh]

Thanks P.L.!

[Aka]

David Walsh ,
Well I hope he want hold his breath until the Chinese do that.

After reading about the USG post of National security adviser, I very curious about recruitment criteria. Very few military or intelligence personal has been appointed to this position. Many advisers has been lawyers, academics, congressional aids, campaign aids so and so.

[oofda]

Colonel,
Check the latest map from kot-ivanov, which has been providing interesting maps. The coastal city of Mariopol is now surrounded. If it falls to the separatists, it would be a major blow to the Ukrainian government.

http://kot_ivanov.livejournal.com/

[FB Ali]

Col Lang,

I wonder what kind of reports Merkel is getting from her intelligence people.

I think you once said that the BND was formed from the co-opted remnants of the Gehlen organization. These agencies seem to recruit people similar to their existing cadres (eg, the old MI6). It wouldn't be surprising if they had a neo-Nazi or at least anti-Russia bent. (There was also once an outcry when they appeared to have dropped the ball on some neo-Nazi organizations in Germany).

[kao_hsien_chih]

Brigadier Ali,

I always thought (without expert knowledge admittedly) that the story was opposite. Many German aristocrats, especially Prussians, were Rossophiles (especially vis a vis the old Tsarist Russia--in some sense, the predecessors to today's Strelkovites) and made up a disproportionate share of Germany's "Russia hands," both in their military and diplomatic services. Gehlen was certainly associated with them closely, if not one of them.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Who do they think they are; the Al Mahdi and His Companions?

According to Shia Tradition, the Al Mahdi is supposed to emerge in Mecca, accompanied by Jesus.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Merkel cannot act on her own - she has to conform to what is ordered from DC.

She knows better and is well informed.

[Piotr, Poland]

1 Wonderfull. But do you think that European intelligences really need your letter as epiphany, to understand what happens in Ukraine? They have not their own sources in Ukraine and Russia, and have to rely on Michael Gordon's texts?
Isn't it a kind of patronizing mind?
Just a small example, how proffesional can Europeans be:
This guy from Finland is Russian weaponry expert. He was the first to call publicly Mr Putin's bluff about Crimean "green men":
http://www.suomensotilas.fi/en/artikkelit/crimea-invaded-high-readiness-forces-russian-federation

2 Do you know, in 2013 Russia and Byelarus had common army
exercises where they "practiced" nuclear attack on Warsaw?
Mr Zhyrinovsky, Putin's jester,is used by Kremlin to say things unconvenient to say by those in power. Lately he's told in TV, that Russians need to think seriously about using nuclear power against one of Baltic States and one of Polish cities.
Russian bluffs? We all here hope so and pray being right about it. If not, you'd send us your deepest condolences, we know it, but clouds of dust can't read texts...

3 In 2011 NATO sources in Ukraine reported Russian GRU unusuall activity on recruitment of new ukrainian agents. So what was the first: Ms Nuland stupid words or Russian idea of "preserving Russian order using every means" in Ukraine?

4 Your ground sources about cosiderable suport for "federalists"...Are you sure? Check it up once again please.
I have not proffesional intelligence sources- just a few Ukrainians from Donetsk and Louhansk area, who live in Poland now, but left their relatives there. All say: people in Eastern UKR understand who is agresor and who is defender. Ofcourse bombed house and dead relatives is a personal drama, and it doesn't metter who's shot done it. All my Ukrainian sources (even those speaking only russian!) share feelings from this letter. Sorry, its Russian text, but absolutely worth of reading, if you want to know real sentiments there:
http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/articles/2014/07/14/7031881/

5 Don't know your experiences with Russians. Our, in Eastern Europe is very simple and practiced many times in history.
Want to stop Russian aggresion and save the Peace? Hit Putin between the eyes as fast and as strong as possible. Longer you hesitate and "hamletise" - the bigger the final cost will be. Russians understand the naked power very well - they use it often against us. Every "give Putin the chance" moves they interpreting as signs of weakness.
How to do it? "Use banks - not tanks!" G. Kasparov.
Why the Holy Sh.t US didn't hit Crude Oil prices strongly?
That's enough to stop Putin, before it's too late! Do the same as Reagan in 80's when agreed with Saudis, about big increase of oil production. Now you don't need Saudis you can do it on your own - you have big shale oil deposits!

[turcopolier]

piotr

I did not sign this letter and have not signed any VIPS documents for a long time. This was posted on my site by "Walrus" a guest author who is Australian. pl

[turcopolier]

babak

"what is ordered from DC." Come on! You know very well that Merkel does not take orders from America. I thought you were a rational man. pl

[turcopolier]

piotr

You are new here and so I will explain the rules. This is not "the press." There is no freedom of the press here. This site (SST) is altogether my property. I approve any comments that will be posted before they are posted. those who are guest authors here can approve comments on their own material. The basic rule here is that all discussion must be civil and polite. Sneering, unnecessary foul language and bad manners are not allowed. If you breach these rules repeatedly I will ban you from the site. pl

[Seamus Padraig]

A Ukrainian Pravda article is not going to be a very objective source on Ukraine. What about UN High Commission for Refugees, which recently estimated most people (about 800,000) who are fleeing East Ukraine are fleeing INTO Russia? Although the Ukrainian Govt. has established some corridors for them to flee westward, that number is much smaller and shrinking. So if they were afraid of the Russians, why would they be headed to Russia?

http://www.unhcr.org/540590ae9.html

[Norbert M Salamon]

All:
RT has a note that the M17 preliminary report will be presented next week at the latest, with rest in a year and Dutch investigators will visit the crash site for further investigation- if no military issues there.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Respectfully, I stand by what I wrote.

The Primus has spoken and the Pares have fallen in line.

Merkel - left to herself - could have settled this with Russia - but evidently she was not supported in her efforts.

And she cannot clearly break from whatever political constraint on her as the Chancellor of Germany in an alliance in which she is a pares.

None of the other pares are doing anything to oppose this mad contention for the control of Ukraine.

[turcopolier]

Babak

Deciding to follow DC's lead is not the same thing as being ordered to do so. i imagine she would be popular in Germany for refusing to follow Washington's lead. pl