Open Thread - 21 September 2014

Have a good day.  I like the painting.  pl 

Comments

[J]

Colonel,

A sad day for Scotland, once again it has been bought and sold for English gold.

[J]

Colonel,

I like the painting also, thanks for sharing it with us.

[FB Ali]

I am puzzled by one aspect of the ongoing East-West tussle over Ukraine - the role of Merkel and Germany.

In the early stages one read about Merkel's special relationship with Putin, and the frequent phone conversations between them. Then, as Germany joined in the EU sanctions, it was said that Merkel was being forced into it by the US. Finally, it appears that when the latest EU sanctions were being considered, and several countries urged waiting to see how the ceasefire turned out, it was Merkel who insisted on their immediate imposition.

According to Alastair Crooke, it was this that finally swung Putin to abandon any hopes of a Western orientation for his country: ".......Germany’s readiness to support sanctions that has so shocked the Russian leadership – and actuated a fundamental re-think about how the Russian state should protect itself". http://tinyurl.com/m25mc6l

What is Merkel's motivation? Cold warrior? Ideological affinity with the Neocons? Internal pressures? Germany's interests? NSA blackmail?

I would be glad to hear any views on this puzzle.

[kao_hsien_chih]

Brigadier Ali,

I wonder if there is an analogue between this and Erdogan's Turkey. Some years ago, Erdogan was promoting good commercial relations with Iran and Syria, only to toss it away by supporting Sunni rebels against Assad, notwithsranding huge economic costs and political backlash. Could Merkel be aspiring to be the future Caliph of Godless Capitalist West, the way Erdogan might be with Sunni Islam?

[FB Ali]

KCH,

There certainly are similarities in the turn away from a former course that made strategic sense into a seemingly senseless path. But in Erdogan's case there are some grounds for believing that he could perhaps pull it off some day. Not so in Merkel's case.

As Crooke says in the same piece, what she has done is to throw Germany into the clutches of the US global monetary system, fed continuously with fiat currency, whose aim is to support US military domination of the world. Far from any hope of becoming a Caliph she has become a handmaiden to Washington's policies, reducing Germany to a vassal state as part of the powerless, dependent EU.

[turcopolier]

FB Ali

"... she has become a handmaiden to Washington's policies, reducing Germany to a vassal state as part of the powerless, dependent EU." Oh, come on. Anyone who cooperates with the US is our servant? pl

[the Unready]

All,

Does anyone know why the IS has not been stopped from (almost) taking Kobani? Where are the airstrikes?

[FB Ali]

I was essentially quoting Crooke's view, a view that I find quite plausible. It seems to fit the general course of events better than any other alternative explanation.

The power imbalance, military, economic, financial, between the US and most of the world's countries (including those in the EU) is so great that one can hardly call it cooperation. (Crooke's thesis is that, by throwing away all its links to Russia, Germany lost whatever leverage it had to maintain some degree of independence, both for itself and the EU).

[turcopolier]

Aethelred

They are not through yet. The Turks have begun using water cannon and teat gas to drive the Kurds back to the slaughter. Obama/Kerry still nurture the illusion that the Erdogan government is a NATO ally. pl

[turcopolier]

FB Ali

IMO Crooks is yet another anti-American Brit still festering over the loss of empire and the ascendancy of the US in its stead. pl

[Tyler]

Sir,

I think you might enjoy this bit of art as well.

http://imgur.com/mxpoR8g

[Ingolf]

Like FB Ali, I've also been puzzled by Germany apparently ceding so much strategic flexibility. If you're willing to share them I would be most interested in your thoughts.

[JLCG]

The President of Switzerland visited Putin. What does the Helvetic Confederation does but keep sordid money stashed away. The Swiss told Putin that his money would be revealed. That is what in my view kept Putin quiet soon after he had obtained Crimea. Thenhen the horrible crime of downing the airliner happened and Putin having the information as to the perpetrators has kept them submissive.
On the other hand Merkel knows that the USA has the information as to her activities within the Democratic German Republic and if she acted contrary to the wishes of the USA that information might be revealed. That keeps her quiet.
This is let's say my clinical analysis of the situation. Poroshenko the EU and Obama are kept quiet because of the downing of the airliner.

[the Unready]

Colonel,

The thought had occurred that Kobani was a good swap for the hostages, particularly as no ransom was paid...

[Bandolero]

All

Poroshenko today confirmed in a TV address equipment losses in the range of 60 to 65% of the Ukrainian military. Reuters reports - quote:

... The Ukrainian leader, in a televised question and answer session with a group of Ukrainian journalists after returning from the United States, acknowledged that Ukrainian troops were still being killed but he said the death rate was 'ten times fewer' than before.

"It's not possible to win ... purely by military means. The more Ukrainian army battalions or brigades are brought up, the more troops there are from the Russian Federation," he said, adding that 60-65 percent of Ukraine's military equipment on the front-line had been destroyed. ...

Source:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/09/21/uk-ukraine-crisis-idUKKBN0HG0ES20140921

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Col. Lang,SST;

Both Turkish and foreign press are reporting that the fleeing Kurds are being permitted to enter Turkey.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/turkey/144710/turkey-open-borders-for-fleeing-syrian-kurds-updated

Their "forces" are no match in open battle for mechanized infantry as most here have stated.

I have been reading an interesting book about the Muslim Brotherhood (Devils Game, R. Dreyfuss http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/61485/l-carl-brown/devils-game-how-the-united-states-helped-unleash-fundamentalist- ). I would appreciate your opinions about it.

Ishmael Zechariah

[Babak Makkinejd]

Erdogan had been promised easy and quick victory. That was his miscalculation.

He has succeeded in compartmentalizing Turkey's commercial relations with Iran and her policies regarding Syria.

[Babak Makkinejd]

Germany is not even a vassal state; she would have been called a satrapy in the days of the Great King.

UK is a vassal state, or Spain.

[Babak Makkinejd]

Well, some are rented "servants", like Pakistan.

[Trillium]

All,

I am considering taking up some sort of martial art to improve my self-defence abilities and as a hobby. I'm not looking for a sport, but something simple and easy to remember/use in a fight. There seem to be a myriad of options. Does this committee have any suggestions?

[Trillium]

Colonel,

how is "So Long to Learn" coming along?

[Fred]

TTG,

Thanks for the canoe suggestions on a prior thread. I wish I had that one seater during my last trip to sunny Florida. It would have been a bit easier to handle than the rental. Enjoy a few minutes of my trip. All I lost was a great deal of stress and a flip (or flop).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-wxU1vpNhm4

[SteveG]

Tyler

Facebook Wallpaper?🐰

[LJ]

John McCain in contact with ISIS in his own words. What is to be made of this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5-51-wLVG0

[Bandolero]

FB Ali

I'ld see this mainly as a PR move by Merkel. Being seen as "tough on Russia" strengthens her transatlantic credentials.

In reality the economic effect of the new round of sanctions seems to very marginal. It's even disputed whom this round of sanctions will hurt more: Russia or Halliburton?

For more on this see "Times of Moscow" - a Russian outfit which is usually quite distanced from Putin. Quote:

Sanctions Squeeze Western Oil Service Companies Out of Russia

... "Halliburton has already left the market and Schlumberger is likely to follow, to be quickly replaced by Russian service companies," said Rustam Tankayev, lead analyst at the Russian Union of Oil and Gas Producers.

He said Russian companies have developed similar technology to their Western counterparts but were struggling to gain contracts because oil majors chose firms like Halliburton or Schlumberger for their top quality and reliability — even though they come at a higher price.

Other analysts agreed that Western companies are likely to gradually leave Russia, saying this will only benefit domestic service providers. ...

Source:

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/sanctions-squeeze-western-oil-service-companies-out-of-russia/507136.html