IS and its enemies.

 

"... after the initial crackdown, the group began setting up services and institutions - stating clearly that it intended to stay and use the area as a base in its quest to eradicate national boundaries and establish an Islamic "state".

"We are a state," one emir, or commander, in the province told Reuters. "Things are great here because we are ruling based on God's law."

Some Sunni Muslims who worked for Assad's government stayed on after they pledged allegiance to the group.

"The civilians who do not have any political affiliations have adjusted to the presence of Islamic State, because people got tired and exhausted, and also, to be honest, because they are doing institutional work in Raqqa," one Raqqa resident opposed to Islamic State told Reuters.

Since then, the group "has restored and restructured all the institutions that are related to services," including a consumer protection office and the civil judiciary, the resident said."  Reuters

***************

 "Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said the threat from IS 'requires us to work together and seek common solutions.' It (Iran)  has reached out to Saudi Arabia - the leading Sunni power and Iran's regional rival - and has turned a blind eye to US actions in Iraq, which it has historically opposed.

In Iraq, the Iranians themselves have played a key role in countering IS. Iranian Revolutionary Guards have advised Iraqi security forces, Iranian pilots have carried out air strikes, Iranian-backed Shia militia have mobilised, and Iran says it has been sending weapons and advisers to Iraqi Kurdistan.

The breaking of the siege of Amerli saw US aircraft act in apparent co-ordination with Shia fighters on the ground, despite the deep and longstanding enmity between the US and Iran.

Tehran also joined Washington in withdrawing support for Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Maliki in August, forcing him to step down and allowing a consensus candidate to be named to replace him.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani has said Iran "will not hesitate to protect holy [Shia] shrines" in Iraq, which IS has threatened to destroy, though he has said it would be "very unlikely" Iran would send in its forces."  BBC

-------------------

Kerry will go to the Gulf to seek cooperation against IS.  Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the UAE will all agree and it will mean nothing.  All of these country thingies own a lot of military equipment and none of it means anythng except in commissions paid.  Combat power does not consist in owning a lot of things.  If it did then Iraq would have defeated IS easily.  Armed forces are like plants.  It takes a long time to grow them and most of the plant is in the roots invisible to sight.  Work it out.   At the same time the Arabs just about always agree with you and it usually means little.  They are just being polite.

 It is evident that the Obama Administration in all its grandeur and sophistication has decided to deny the existence of the Islamic State as anything other than a terrorist movement.  Unfortunately, that intent does not match reality on the ground.  As described in the Reuters piece above, IS is not merely a nihilist force as the Obamanites describe it.  IS is creating something.  This something is a salafist state designed to embrace all of the 'umma, the world wide Islamic community.  They are intent on creating such a community in accordance with their idea of what Islam should be.  That idea does not include the existence or inclusion of wealthy Sunnis who are not devotees of the Wahhabi credo.  It does not include any non-Wahhabi variants of Islam; no Sufis, no Shia, no Druze, no Alawis, none. Christians and Jews are to be tolerated as subject people so long as they accept having no official function. "Pagans" like the Yazidis are to be given the choice of conversion or the sword.

At the same time IS is growing the functions, not of a "civil state," but of a theocratic state unified in religion and all aspects of life. Government administration, courts, police, bakeries and the like.  they will not  be able to tax the Muslims in their state but the amount of tithing (zakat) paid will be impressive.  Christians and any Jews around will pay the jizya (capitation tax,) as they have since the seventh century CE.  

IS has money.  It has an army with a  lot of equipment.  It has a population.  It is issuing postage and passports.  it has captured aircraft.  IMO it will soon have an air force.  It even has a flag, and as Eddie Izzard says, you have to have a flag to be a country.

The Obamanite fantasists can pretend that wishing IS gone will make it so, but...  pl  

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29074514

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/09/04/us-syria-crisis-raqqa-insight-idUSKBN0GZ0D120140904 

Comments

[Kunuri]

Well Albayim, how would you advice Al Baghdadi if you were his Chief of Staff?

[kao_hsien_chih]

We have some history doing this sort of thing, unfortunately. The last time a band of strange ideologues took over a country, we took (I believe) more than a decade to recognize that they are an actual country. The country in question was USSR. (One could also count PRC as an example, since we insisted on recognizing the RoC remnants on Taiwan as the legal government of China, not the bad old commies in Beijing, for several decades). Assuming IS can actually last for a number of years, I wonder how long it will take for us to accept that they are not just a transnational criminal gang...

[turcopolier]

kunuri

Memo to Caliph Ibrahim:

- Continue with consolidation of IS institutions with no diminution of our savage IO work.

- Integrate as many foreign jihadis as possible into our combat units.

- Step up training and maintenance on captured artillery, armor and AAA weapons

- Attack Baghdad international Airport when we are ready and capture the US Embassy. Hold all captured foreigners as hostages using them as human shields against re-capture of the airport.

- Defend the LOCs just south of Baghdad against US advance from the south.

- Advance into Saudi Arabia through Arar and vicinity. raise the banner of IS as we advance into SA. Seek mass conversion in the Najd. Bring a lot of foreign human shields with us.

- Take Kuwait in reverse.

- Then offer to negotiate. pl

[Ryan]

This article about the commander of the Quds Force, Qassem Suleimani, from Business Insider also believes the Iranians and the Americans were working together at Amerli. I would hope this would be the case, the Israel firsters be damned.

http://www.businessinsider.com/suleimani-was-present-during-battle-for-amerli-2014-9

I heard some of the talking heads on one of the cable channels talking about Suleimani where a number of uncomplimentary things were said about him.

Because I have a good idea the origins for the claims made about various people my default position is to dismiss 75% of them as politically inspired BS.

The Obama Administration can say what they wish about the IS. It exists whether they like it or not. It will be interesting to see how well The Islamic State gets along with The State of Israel.

[João Carlos]

"- Advance into Saudi Arabia through Arar and vicinity. raise the banner of IS as we advance into SA. Seek mass conversion in the Najd.

- Take Kuwait in reverse."

I am sure oil prices will skyrocket if that happens...

Putin will laugh a lot. Russia will be filthy rich exporting oil. US and Europe and Japan will go to a huge depression if oil prices escalate, making Putin laugh a lot more.

Let's hope IS don't have good military advisers like you.

"- Then offer to negotiate."

IMHO, we will not see negotiation. Iran will go total war against IS if that happens. They know what will happen to shia everywhere if IS have SA and Kuwait oil profits. So, Iran and shia will fight for survival with all strength, they have no option, IS want kill them all. That will be a bloody and long war...

We live interesting times (yes, it is the chinese curse and we are cursed...)

[turcopolier]

joao carlos

I didn't say we would negotiate. we would OFFER to negotiate. when that happens all those who worry about oil prices would press their governments to make a deal with us, any deal. We are not going to invade southern Iraq. We would not need that oil. We will make a hudna with Iran and the other murtadd government in east Baghdad. The terms of the hudna would also cover the status of our Shia mutaddoon mawalis in what had been ARAMCO. pl

[no one]

Sir, is IS really able to be that rational, in the business-like sense that you would recommend, given the dictates of their religious perspective? Are they not compelled, in the long run, to continue to expand to neighboring lands?

If they are compelled to expand eventually, then why not crush them out now, when it is easier? Why would anyone Shia wait while IS grows stronger? I am thinking about Iran and S. Iraq Shia (probably Jordan, too).

[Kunuri]

Tesekkurler Albayim, I had a ting of regret after I posted fearing you would not take my question seriously. But I was serious, we take apart US and the rest of the world strategy on how to deal with ISIS here, but what good can come out of it unless we all put ourselves in place of the adversary best as we can?

I would add a few journeyman suggestions.

Stop messing with the Kurds, leave it for later, don't waste valuable resources and manpower for an impossible task given their strength on international arena at the moment.

Make utmost use of all hostages without causing any more fervor than already created.

Be nice to Turkey, one infidel at a time.

Prevent Sunni tribes changing sides at any cost, offer more money and perks if necessary than the allies. Or more fear.

Use to advantage the short span of attention of Western media, hide in the webs and ride the flows.

Protect LOC s to the borders of Turkey and Syria at all costs.

Increase undercover activity and sleeper cells all around Bagdad to be timed with any overt attack, and keep powder dry.

Improve camouflage, rediscover pony express, dig deep, and don't bunch up.

[turcopolier]

kunuri

you don't like my strategy for IS? pl

[turcopolier]

no one you should not make the mistake of thinking that fanatics cannot be business like. pl

[Kunuri]

Albayim, to comment on "Attack Baghdad international Airport when we are ready and capture the US Embassy. Hold all captured foreigners as hostages using them as human shields against re-capture of the airport."

I don't think IS even has to capture the Green Zone and the Airport, all they have to do is threaten the Airport actively, rendering it too dangerous to operate from. Then it is as good as captured, Green Zone and US Embassy cut off. Even for a short interval, it will have a huge psychological effect. How would an Iraqi Brigade commander in contact with IS feel if he keeps getting reports of helicopters taking off of the rooftops in the Green Zone? IS could have done this easily a month and a half ago when they had great momentum, now it is unlikely, but not improbable.

[turcopolier]

kunuri

If you don't have a lot of infidel hostages then you have no protection from air attack. Your strategy is too much about Turkey. IS is not worried about Turkey. They know that Erdogan is one of them. He just wears a suit. They will keep lines open to turkey. it is their strategic base and depth. If it is not true that Erdogan's Turkey is IS's ally then why is the US not allowed to use Incerlik and Batman air bases? pl

[Kunuri]

It makes sense Albayim, I hope they are reading it and shape their strategy accordingly.

[turcopolier]

kunuri

I don't. they will win if they do. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

In my opinion, Iran has no reason to fight ISIS directly nor will it go into total war.

[Babak Makkinejad]

To capture Baghdad, ISIS would need tanks and aircraft and the most important element: something like what in US is called a Quartermaster Corps.

They have a few tanks and I surmise that they also have a few aircrafts. But they cannot create a Quartermaster Corps quickly, in my opinion.

[turcopolier]

babak

L'audace, l'audace! Toujours l'audace! who dares wins. the airport is hardly defended at present and Baghdad west of the Tigris is full of Sunnis disloyal to the government. IS has enough logistics for this. If they wait too long the situation will change. I am not speaking of taking the whole city. Ever been there? pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

the beaver:

From an earlier thread:

I think of the BBC report as indicative of a tactical cooperation in the field of battle and not much else

Ayatollah Khamenei had alluded to cooperation with US last month in one of his speeches.

Strategic cooperation between Iran & US is out of the question in my opinion; likewise with EU.

[Kunuri]

Albayim, if it is so obvious that Erdogan is one of IS, how come the US administration did not come down on Erdogan like a ton of bricks when things got so serious as of late? And for sure, he had a hand in enabling ISIS, is sympathetic to them, and this is widely known, but underreported. He is no less complacent than the Saudis and the Qataris, and all this was well known for years now. Nobody bat an eye until two idealistic journalists were beheaded and a very visible ethnic cleansing took place. I am not saying somebody created this IS menace, it just happened, but it was allowed to become a real crisis for one reason or another. Like you say, I charge it to sheer stupidity and shortsightedness of all parties involved, nothing more.

I don't subscribe to the theory that IS is an artificial creation of the willing, but more like a series of blunders that created a substance that filled a vacuum. Erdogan committed a good portion of the blunders for ideological reasons, or for just plain ineptitude and greed.

He must have heard an earful in Wales this week, and must respond. IS must be made to feel not so secure on their northern flank and its reliance on the rat line must be diminished. Erdogan must be made to understand the scope of the disaster he created there for whatever reason. He must fess up.

Incirlik is a very active NATO base, I am not sure it is within Erdogan's power to disallow its use, and really, he doesn't need to know the schedules there. I have not read anywhere that Erdogan publicly refused any request to utilize the bases for bombing IS. There is a lot of US personnel traffic to Kurdish areas and it can not all be made from aircraft carriers on the Mediterranean. Incirlik and Batman is operational, Erbil can not be more than hour's worth of helicopter time to reach. If Erdogan refused any public request to use the bases, it would have been reported. Since everything is quiet, there must not be any problems.

[Babak Makkinejad]

No, I have never been to that city; it has never been possible or safe to visit for as long as I have been alive.

Yes, I agree, they can control the West Bank of Baghdad and complete the partition of Iraq into 3 pieces.

[Kunuri]

"L'audace, l'audace! Toujours l'audace!"

George C. Scott, as Patton in North Africa.

Such great moment of pathos, one forgets if it isn't Hannibal reliving his campaign over the Alps.

[Ryan]

"L'audace, l'audace! Toujours l'audace!"

Kunuri,

As a historical note the quote originates from Frederick the Great.

[Kunuri]

Babak Makkinejad,

I respectfully disagree, they will not need tanks to capture Baghdad, in fact it will be a burden for them. What use is a huge tank in narrow streets with a visibility of 50 yards all around, and street corners and rooftops to watch for RPGs, and diehards coming out of doorways serving cocktails.

And how can they operate any aircraft with allied radar umbrella all around? They will not last a second and without anyone spotting for them they will be useless anyway. That is if they can operate and maintain them and that is a big undertaking. Forget the tanks and aircraft, too impractical.

But how about mobile light howitzers, mortar platoons on mechanicals, latest East European anti tank bazookas, MRLs on trucks, lots of mines and IEDs, suicide trucks and bombers, kidnappings and random bombings, mass hysteria and panic... will accomplish much more than tanks and planes, and they know it.

For such light weapons systems you do not need a red ball express, Iraq is full of weapons and arsenals. Food can be obtained locally, as well as medical services. Highly mobile squadrons of well balanced infantry, light artillery, and engineers can defeat forces far greater in numbers and equipment if led ably. Especially if they have local knowledge and support.

[Kunuri]

I don't know, but Iranians can be very practical especially at a time of crisis. Did they not invent chess, where one must sometimes give up a piece or two for the coup de gras?

[Kunuri]

Thank you Ryan, but pop culture gives us an in to real culture. Otherwise I would have never known of the wonderful quote.