ME Diary - 14 September 2014

 

Summoned to the battle

It should be clear by now that IS is inviting the US to return its forces to the ME.  That is one of the main purposes of their  media operations and most especially the beheadings recorded for all to see.  Why, one might ask would a nascent state with 30,000 odd fighters want to directly engage a military power as destructive as the United States? 

IMO there are two reasons for this seemingly irrational behavior:

- If you accept the idea that the psychological impact of the horrible videos is deliberate, then it must be said that this tactic has been effective.  American popular interest in seeking the destruction of IS has soared with the progressive revelation of mass murder of prisoners, many of whom were really not opponents of IS.  These deaths prepared the way for the three beheading rituals staged thus far.  BTW, has anyone here watched these videos in their entirety?  I have not and will not.  Do they actually show the head cutting?  It is difficult to cut a man's head off with a knife that size.  There is all that muscle, tendon, windpipe and spine to get through.  There would be an awful lot of blood since the heart continues to pump throughout the process.  In any event, the effect of the campaign of media horror has been to focus the US, French, UK and Australian governments on the matter.  It appears to me that IS wants the US to come fight them.   They may well believe that the US and its Western allies will collapse under the stress as Bin Laden believed we would.

-Secondly, these are mightily potent weapons in the struggle for control of the collective Sunni mind.  The gesture of defiance explicit in the deeds appeals greatly to people who seek an absolutist answer to the riddle of existence.  Fighters and money seem to be joining the cause and the horror of IS actions contributes to that achievement.

The "Coalition"

Kerry is blowing smoke up our collective fundaments.

-  With their diplomatc hostages in IS hands, the Turks have a perfect excuse to avoid active participation.  With this in play, they can simply refuse to allow their airfields to be used for strikes against IS.  The use of Incerlik for surveillance drone operations is a minimum sop to NATO. Erdogan is playing with fire and he may well be burned before this ends.

- Marwan Mo'asher, a former foreign minister of Jordan said today that his country will not use its ground forces in this matter.  He would not say that if the palace disagreed.

- The Gulf States want us to go fight for them and to that end will put money in the game and in SA's case let their big sandbox be used for training "moderate" Syrians.

- Egypt will take our money and that is about all they will do.

- Iraq.  A laughable idea.

What coalition?

 Abadi

He has yet to name a Defense or Interior (police) minister.  He has now ordered the Iraq Air Force to stop hitting targets in populated areas.  That is exactly what IS wants him to do and why they are increasingly positioning themselves in populated areas.  He will soon tell the US to desist from air operations in populated areas.  That will be a very tough thing to overcome.

The Good Guys (FSA)

Some parts of the Free Syrian Army have now made agreements with IS that will call a halt to fighting between them so that the FSA can concentrate on fighting Assad's forces.  The Nusra Front (AQ) brokered the deals.  US delivery of weapons to the FSA will be just a way station in delivering this materiel to IS. 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/iraq-pm-orders-halt-to-air-strikes-of-civilian-areas/article20592975/

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/14/world/middleeast/kerry-visits-egypt-seeking-aid-in-isis-fight.html?_r=0

http://www.dailystar.com.lb/News/Middle-East/2014/Sep-12/270497-syria-rebels-isis-in-non-aggression-pact-near-damascus.ashx#axzz3DIJZXxym

 

Comments

[FB Ali]

Col Lang,

You are right: the IS is deliberately trying to get the US (and the West) to engage in war with it. It is bin Laden's old plan to start a war between 'Christendom' and Islam.

Bush Jr's GWOT following 9/11 created all these anti-West armed movements throughout the Muslim world; the West's reaction to the IS bait is likely to reinforce this trend. Whatever governments in Muslim countries might say, there is already a lot of anti-US sentiment among their populations.

[William R. Cumminh]

Thanks for this informative post PL!

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Col. Lang.

According to Aydinlik Daily, The Turkish Armed Forces announced that they would not contribute combat forces against Daash, and that they were against letting Incirlik be used for combat ops by USAF. Off the record, they indicated that they did not trust the Americans. (http://www.aydinlikdaily.com/Detail/Turkey-Declines-Hagel-Coalition-Offer-Against-ISIS/4468 ). Other articles state that tayyip has agreed to "help" (In Turkish: http://www.aydinlikgazete.com/mansetler/51309-tayyip-erdogandan-suriye-saldirisina-destek.html). Aydinlik is one of the few publications for the secular Turks. Its articles are usually correct.

While all of this is going on the USA Consul in Adana is touring all districts claimed by the Kurds, probably preaching "patience", while making sure not to meddle in other internal affairs ( http://adana.usconsulate.gov/ ; http://www.aydinlikgazete.com/guendem/51397-abdli-espinoza-gulen-hakkinda-yorum-yapmiyoruz.html ).

Finally a WSJ editorial wants a US air base in "Kurdistan" ( http://online.wsj.com/articles/our-non-ally-in-ankara-1410561462 )

The same interests that helped tayyip to power are now against him, it seems. A complicated game is unfolding. Peace in the ME might be elusive for a while.

Ishmael Zechariah

[Cee]

All,

Not another US penny or life for this!!

http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/140912/syria-rebels-non-aggression-pact-near-damascus

[Anonymous]

American plans against IS seem to hide the expectation that the Czech Legion will eventually pop out from inside some iraqi sands of time storm. But even with such strong foes (meaning the Czech Legion, of course,) this Caliphate seems counterfeit to me. If only Col. Lang would put aside his loyalty to this american republic thing, he would make a far more formidable Caliph than all the available candidates past or present. With his vision and knowledge he could, instead of trying to repair the foreign policy of a failed republic, drive the Middle-east towards a true islamic renaissance. SO much for the flapping idiocies of the pidgeon-in-chief and his phd-pidgeonry-in-arms. It's about time someone with capability takes the lead. If not in the USA, then in the Caliphate.

[Herb]

Is it oversimplified to say IS has adopted a "tar baby" strategy?

[Cee]

All,

I'm telling you that the old Oded Yinon and PNAC plans are driving us to ruin

http://mycatbirdseat.com/2014/07/the-unfolding-of-yinons-zionist-plan-for-the-middle-east-the-crisis-in-iraq-and-the-centrality-of-the-national-interest-of-israel/

http://www.oldamericancentury.org/pnac.htm

http://www.activistpost.com/2014/08/why-does-isis-fit-in-so-perfectly-with.html

Israel can’t do without US Jewry

Op-ed: Without American Jews' support, which Israelis find so obvious, Israel could be facing a real existential danger today.
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4570817,00.html

[CTuttle]

Interesting events developing in the I/P...

1) "The Israeli military on Sunday sharply criticized a conscientious objection letter sent by 43 veterans of an elite intelligence unit who refused to serve their duty due to Israel's surveillance and information gathering tactics.

Military spokesman Brig.-Gen. Moti Almoz wrote online on Sunday that the group used their military service "to express political opinions" in the letter sent last week, saying "disciplinary treatment would be sharp and clear."

"There is no place for refusal of service in the Israel Defense Forces. There are disagreements and there are political views," Almoz wrote, adding that the military takes a "severe" view over what he said was "exploitation of military service to express a political stance."

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/world/2014-09/15/c_133642319.htm

2) Israeli air force chief: We may have to send planes to Iran tomorrow

"Speaking about the imperative for the government to allocate additional funding to the armed forces, Israel Air Force chief Major-General Amir Eshel declared that “there’s no one in this room who’d be prepared to ride in a car as old as our planes. I’m telling you, no-one. Yesterday these planes were in Gaza, and tomorrow we may send them to Tehran.” The remarks were not delivered in the tone of a threat, but rather as a statement about a possible mission that would require up-to-date equipment.

Eshel’s comments, broadcast Sunday on the local Channel 2 News, came as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Finance Minister Yair Lapid sparred over the national budget, with Netanyahu earlier Sunday asserting that, in the wake of the summer’s 50-day Israel-Hamas conflict, “We need a significant increase of several billion in the defense budget.”

http://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-air-force-chief-we-may-have-to-send-planes-to-iran-tomorrow/#ixzz3DLOzqqml

[FND]

They want the US to fight them so that more middle easterners join their side. US is a good bad guy for them. And because we are so high tech, our wars cost us tremendously. So they may also believe it may help to destroy our economy. The most horrifying thing to ISIS would be if Turkey, a Sunni country, and Iran, a Shiite country attack them with no US help.

If the US were to stay out of it, I believe Turkey and Iran would eventually have to wipe ISIS out once they became a threat to them. For Turkey (and Saudi Arabia), it would be the classic case of a snake biting its handler.

[Aka]

FND ,
ISIS desperately need a "crusade" so that it can declare a "proper" jihad. But other than few beheading (of jurnos or aid workers), ISIS can't really bring a war to the western world (europe, US or isreal). So they want US to bring that war to them.

Because killing fellow muslims in the name of the jihad does not really sound like a very sustainable strategy.

[Aka]

dear colonel,
I haven't watched this particular video but I have seen previous videos from Iraq. I have seen them using even smaller blades (not very sharp ones either). But it took more than one to hold the person initially, there was lot of blood (as i can remember they put a cooking pan to collect the blood) and head wasn't actually "chopped" off. They sort of wring it to "take it off" (and I'll probably remember that sh#t to the day i die).

interesting article by Alistare Crooks.

It seems ISIS does not threaten the west directly. Rather, its aiming at its "ideological" sponsors, The Saudis.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/alastair-crooke/isis-aim-saudi-arabia_b_5748744.html

[b]

"BTW, has anyone here watched these videos in their entirety?"

There is a bit of mystery about these videos. Until the first of these three came up there were dozens of full beheading videos available on Youtube and Liveleak. ISIS or some guys killing Iraqi and Syrian soldiers and civilians. All were full gore showing the actual beheading.

When the Foley video came up things change 180 degree. The videos were banned from Youtube and Liveleak. Anyone who tweeted a link to the video was banned from Twitter! The videos and their stories were distribute by SITE, a neocon shop related to Israeli intelligence. None of the videos showed the actual beheading. For what we know from these videos the three people may still be alive.

What the explanation for this?

[Mark]

On the subject of actually watching these execution videos.
I regret to say that I have had to ( for professional reasons) watch some of them.
Yes you can do it with a knife that size it is horrific. The sort of sight which once you have seen can keep coming back to you
Yes there is a lot of blood.
The recent IS videos do not actually show the killings just a grotesque before and after.

[mo]

I have watched the videos and both the last two show a marked difference in that IS is suddenly squeamish about showing a beheading. They both stop at the moment the knife is placed to the throat and cut to a dead body in the sand.

IMO, IS have done nothing so far to quell my belief that they are fifth column, albeit a very well funded one, whose sole purpose is to embroil the Resistance Axis of nations in a costly and drawn out battle that will sap it of resources.

The rush by the West to "attack" them only happened when they threatened the Kurds. Yet, I am of the belief that this so called war on IS will be symbolic and will concentrate on Syria.

It is very convenient since it was public opposition that stopped a US attack on Syria, that IS have come along and provided that necessary public backing to an attack on IS "no matter where they are".

As usual, the UN (and its rules) will be by-passed and the sovereignty of another Arab nation will be transgressed against.

The fact that IS grew so quickly by being so well funded and fully purports to follow the Wahabi doctrine makes its backers more than obvious. How much Obama and Co. were in the loop when it came to this Bandar-Plan is most likely moot.

As an aside, I wonder if the Syrians will have their hand forced in terms of using any advanced Anti-Aircraft weaponry they may have acquired.

[confusedponderer]

The Turks are the one country best positioned to undo ISIS militarily, given their proximity and military strength.

I gather ISIS would probably meet its match in a turkish NATO trained and modern equipped mechanised brigades.

Alas, there is no political will in Turkey to do so as Erdogan is sympathetic and supportive of ISIS.

Erdogan must thinks of ISIS as Pakistani ISI segments think of the Taleban - a useful proxy.

In that role, ISIS would handily solve no less than three apparent Turkish objectives in one swift stroke:

* ISIS cuts the Kurds down to size
* ISIS has severely weakned the Shia government in Iraq
* ISIS has severely weakened Assad

In relation, Turky's position is stronger than ever. Which also suggests that US leverage on them has actually decreased.

They wouldn't be he first government to think they can handle such people. I think they are also mistaken.

[The beaver]

@ b

Rita Katz is not to be trusted. Remember her OBL's video tapes which surfaced at some crucial times - even when OBL were nowhere to be seen or heard ( that is hiding in Pakistan).
She managed to con the CIA for funds.

These days, apart from the sugar daddy in Israel, it would be interesting to know who really is financing her hobbies.

[Aka]

b, mark & mo,
about ISIS not showing the actual beheading.
After ISIS captured Mosul, it released a 1 hour long high quality video depicting its actions. It contained lot of blood (obviously) and disturbing things (people pleading, crying before getting shot). But there was only one beheading. According to the video it was of a Iraqi SOF Major. It too didn't contained the actual "head cutting". Just the beginning and the aftermath.

I just found something (strange) which may explain it. According to the following text, beheading should be done swiftly (minimize suffering). Could the ISIS be trying to provoke west (with a slow suffering death) and trying keep its image as the one and only caliphate (by following the Islamic way of capital punishment) at the same time?

http://www.orthodoxislam.org/beheading-in-islam.html

[The beaver]

Monsieur Flamby est dans un big doodoo at home and guess what he organised in Paris:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-29201317

Yep, his govt paid ransoms to have the French journalists freed (same journos who were with Fowley) and now this conference (similar to the 100+ Friends of Syria back in 2011 under Sarko). The French are very buddy with Qatar , the same Qatar who paid up the ransom to Al-Nusra to free the other American journalist Leo Curtis- couple of weeks ago.
http://www.latimes.com/world/middleeast/la-fg-american-released-syria-peter-theo-curtis-padnos-20140824-story.html

The same Qatar who negotiated and paid the ransom for the release of 43 + Fiji UN Troops if we go with what is being said at Turtle Bay.
The same Qatar which has got the UNSG eating in its hands since it does provide a jet to the SG to fly like a prince when he goes to these conferences wrt Syria and the ME ( which the spinmasters refuse to acknowledge and to answer questions)
The same Al-Nusra who sold Sotloff to IS and is brokering deals with other Jihadists not to fight IS.
Like they say in French : Trouvez l'erreur.

On the other hand, not too much in the media about this:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/09/05/us-plane-iran_n_5774742.html?cps=gravity

[Babak Makkinejad]

That is my sense of it as well in regards to ISIS.

And one has to include Turkey in this too.

[Charles Dekle]

All,

It seems that General Zinni has all of the answers:
"Zinni, on tour promoting his latest book, “Before The First Shots Are Fired”, says he would put as many as 10,000 U.S. troops in Iraq, that the U.S. should hit IS targets in Syria and that he would support the use of special operations forces or CIA operatives on the ground there to get detailed intelligence needed to locate those targets if necessary."
http://tbo.com/list/military-news/former-centcom-leader-questions-obamas-iraq-approach-20140903/

Of course the article does not mention that the General is a former Co-CEO of BAE Systems, Inc. and currently serves as Outside Director to the same company. I wonder if that little inconvenient fact is influencing his advise to POTUS. His list of board memberships and other affiliations is amazing. I have heard him interviewed by talking heads many times since the 2003 invasion of Iraq and not once has anyone revealed his outside commitments. Oh well. Same as it ever was.
http://www.govconexecutive.com/2009/07/tony-zinni-of-bae-smart-power-is-the-future-of-government-contracting/
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/people/person.asp?personId=1799911&ticker=BA/:LN

Regards,

[Medicine Man]

CP: I think this is an astute set of observations. Thanks for sharing them. I also agree that Erdogan is playing with fire.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Turkey was required to support the destroy-Syria-to-wound-Iran policy.

She was also humiliated by Israel.

And her MB friends were ousted from Egypt via help and persuasion from Saudi Arabia.

Now, ISIS is evidently a threat to SA.

Why should Turkey help SA?

There is no reason.

[turcopolier]

babak

"... required to support the destroy-Syria-to-wound-Iran policy." I don't think they were "required" to do anything of the sort. you have an exaggerated idea of the power of the US. Erdogan was quite happy to seek Sunni triumphalism in Syria. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

The political question then is "ISIS" an species of MB?

Is that why Erdogan has been supporting it?

[confusedponderer]

It gets even more fun when one assumes Erdogan is playing a REALLY deep game:

* Have ISIS lure the US in and have the US follow their compulsions and off Assad.

* Then direct ISIS at Saudi Arabia and take revenge for the Gulfies toppling that other pillar of the MB project in Egypt.

But even without any of that supporting ISIS has the aforementioned immediate benefits for Turkey.

Going out on a limb, I can't think why Turkey would be happy that the Saudis use their money to take influence in Lebanon, which a neo-Ottoman like Erdogan would probably consider a traditional Turkish sphere of influence.

Given that the US support Sisi just like the Saudis, it is unrealistic to assume that Erdogan has much sympathy left for them; he must feel betrayed by the US.

ISIS could offer a chance to break the Saudis and remove one of Erdogan's headaches.

And if the west becomes all too annoying, Turkey is still left with the option to leave NATO and ally with Russia, which Russia should be weary of. Ignoring Erdogan's obvious rather pan-islamist tendencies, there are still some pan-turks out there.