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16 September 2014

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confusedponderer

I confess to have been shamelessly plagiarising the term for its hilarity.

lally

Col.

This Reddit Q&A with Eliah Magnier may be of interest to you and the SST community at large. Because of the open nature of the format, it is somewhat random but does contain some gems. This one, in particular, seems suited to this thread:

"Hello Elijah, Besides training militias what role is hezbollah playing in Iraq? Do you see them increasing their role as in taking part in combat against IS? also America plans to start training the Iraqi Army again, how will that work if hezb is training them as well? thank you for your time
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[–]ejmagnier[S] 1 point 51 minutes ago
Hello. Hezbollah role in Iraq is indeed increasing in number, training officers and above that level as well. Hezbollah is leading some combat ops in Iraq and is involved in training and boosting the ideology. Iraqi are the one who will fight not only in Iraq but also in Syria. The number of Iraqi is so high that is impossible for Hezbollah to match. therefore, these will be seen, starting form next year, fighting IS in Syria as well."
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From an 8/26 Guardian article about Iraq shia militia , one Iraqi fighter described the training regimen of Hezbollah: "We are a resistance faction that have been sent to at least three outside training camps in Iran and Lebanon under the supervision of Hezbollah. Each lasted for two months. Do you know what it means to go for 60 days under constant grueling by Hezbollah? You come back as a new person. You can't compare us with those soldiers who joined the army for money."

Fred

Tyler,

"Secular Calvinism is the name of the game."

On that note you'll be glad to know that Pussy Riot is still on the liberal academia gravy train. They are in Ann Arbor Michigan tonight courtesy of the Univeristy of Michigan. I wonder if they would have been invited had they held that anti-Putin "protest" in a synagogue?

mo

DH,
HA have not left Syria. You are probably confusing them with Kataeb Hizballah of Iraq who say they will not fight if the US is involved. HA's involvement in Syria is too important for Lebanon for them to abandon the fight there

DH

cp, within the last three weeks or so I have recommended that a red line be established to preserve Damascus' Christians, Jews, Alawites, and pro-Assad Sunnis. I am pro-Assad for the practical reasons of preserving the cosmopolitan essence of the Damascus/Aleppo corridor. But I'm guessing the capitol of the first Caliphate is too juicy a plum for the FSA to pass by.

I'm stating that IMO it is do-able, as far as waiting for ISIL, FSA, al-Nusra (in collaboration) to take out Assad, and then for the Coalition to bat clean-up. That is, aiding indigenous Iraqis and Syrians in whatever manner they need to put down ISIL.


DH

Thank you, mo, that is correct. I read so many links here I sometimes lose the thread.

Charles Dekle

VV,
I know a little something about modern engineering and I am afraid that I agree with your assessment.
Regards,

Charles Dekle

GereldH,
I had forgotten about that incident. Thank you. It reminds me of how well the Brits vetted Kim Philby and his cohorts.
Regards,

 Ishmael Zechariah

Col. Lang, SST;

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141848/kenneth-m-pollack/an-army-to-defeat-assad

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/mistakes-excuses-and-painful-lessons-from-the-iraq-war.html

Words fail...

Ishmael Zechariah

Tyler

Fred,

As you well know, there are two sets of rules: One for the Chosen and one for the goyim. Much like how Israel is allowed to have borders but any other country wanting to preserve its identity is literally Hitler.

Mascha Gedden must be furiously looking up from her plate of foreskins and wondering why we haven't started WWIII with Russia yet every night. The fact that Pussy Riot isn't at the bottom of a hole courtesy of Comrade Makarov is a poor balm.

confusedponderer

DH,
I'm pro-Assad for the same practical reason.

Like you, I don't think a red line is feasible because it won't mean anything to ISIS.

As for waiting for JAN and ISIS to take out Assad ant to then go in and clean up the mess will mean full occupation.

Aiding indigenous Iraqis and Syrians won't do, because, to bring down Assad, JAN and ISIS will fight the very people who are curently the only ones to offer them stiff resistance, and hat is the Syrian army and militias and Hezbollah types.

Looking out fo those other indigenous, secular and anti-Assad Iraqis and Syrians to then fill the vacuum is akin to Pyle looking for his "Third Force". I don't see it materialising.

Fred

IZ,

Yes, Mr. Pollack helped cheerlead America to the great victory in Iraq. What we need is another regime change - in Syria - based off his advice. It worked so well last time.

Misanthrope

I was wondering when Israel was going to pipe up. They've been remarkably quiet over the whole ISIS thing. Considering how much fuss they make over Hamas, who have little more than firecrackers and AKs for weapons, you would have thought they would be absolutely apoplectic over the prospect of a large number of liver-eating head-chopping Wahhabi fanatics close to their borders, equipped with lots of heavy weapons seized from the Iraqi and Syrian armies. But no, they still want Assad ousted from power in Syria. Anyone can see, surely, that if that were to happen, ISIS would just take over the whole of Syria. Unless, of course, Israel wants more Lebensraum and decides to annex part of it for itself.

I'm having a hard time believing this is all just incompetence since it is so obvious that damaging Syria makes ISIS stronger. I still reckon ISIS is a put up job. It's possible that they might have deviated from the script they were given. But surely if they're as much of a problem as we're led to believe, it would be worth reaching an arrangement with the Syrians to help get rid of them.

Origin

CP and All,

Whatever "Third Force" must be deeply Muslim and cannot be western in its essence. Any western occupying force will fail.

Turkey seems to be the only rational and available "Third Force". KSA is too Wahhabi to enable any preservation of minorities. On the other hand, Turkey has a long tradition of "somewhat" protecting its minorities.

Do any of you in the Committee see Turkey as a real possibility of saving this thing over the next decade?

turcopolier

Origin

"Do any of you in the Committee see Turkey as a real possibility of saving this thing over the next decade?" No. pl

Origin

Col.

Do you see Turkey destroyed in the conflagration?

turcopolier

Origin
"Destroyed" Probably no, but I could easily imagine civil war. pl

Babak Makkinejad

Did you like Nixon any better?

FB Ali

I don't know much about the internal situation in Turkey, but my sense is that before it gets to the "civil war" stage there might well be one or more coups or coup attempts.

turcopolier

FB Ali

I don't know why people are so shy over the term "civil war." It seems to me that a coup or attempted coup in Turkey is very like civil war. pl

DH

cp, I've read in these pages or elsewhere speculation about a war using mainly Special Forces. I cannot see sending ground troops into that morass, it's just too soon and too fruitless. As has been said here, our presence will only bring in foreign jihadis, so I hope they will be largely left to figure it out among themselves.

DH

Origin, cp, lally, I'm thinking it will be Iran and Hezbollah to help the indigent Sunnis stop Isil, along with our Special Forces, I mean SOF, and air support.

confusedponderer

I agree with DH that Turkey, at least under Erdogan, won't be taking up that role, IMO at leasst as long as Assad remains in power.

If one accepts that - elected and relected or not - Erdogan is a Sunni Islamist in a business suit then the Shia, Alawis, Alevis, Yezidis are anathema to him, and so will be any solution that empowers or preserves any of these groups. He also appears to have problems with Sufis of the Gulen type.

What would IMO be a natural preference for him is to reassert Turkish dominance over these former dominions. He must be sure though that this would meet violent resistance.

He isn't symathetic to the Kurds either: In my reading has offered them peace under the rubric of them all being muslims. That is IMO essential. To me that means he does not accept their irredentist tendencies.

The beaver

Colonel

Latest news:
The 49 hostages have been released:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29291946

different clue

confusedponderer,

Yesterday in the New York Times I saw a small ad taken out by Fethula Gulen condemning ISIS in every possible very strongest way.

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