A Strategy of Hopes and Dreams

 

 

(Sean Connery and what's his name in "The Man Who Would be King.)

Marty and Chuck were up on the Hill today before the Senate "Committee On The Conduct Of The War" (oops, wrong war) to explain the modalities of the US led coalition's coming degradation and then destruction of IS at the hands of the "Coalition of the Feeble Arabs."  Their pleadings matched up well with my post of a few days ago entitled "Too Many Moving Parts, Too Many."

Chuck called him Marty on TV today, so I will also.  Sorry, general.  I thought you were the professional head of the US armed forces but your boss thinks you are "Marty."  I suppose that his squadmates always called him Chuck.

What came through strongly to me in this day's work, was the unreality of the whole thing.  It was largely an expression of various planning goals and hopes assembled by people who still do not understand the peoples of the region, Islam, etc. as well as the fact that those peoples have their own agendas which usually include the desired goal of making fools out of the ifranj, the poor, trusting ifranj.  Someone reminded me recently that when I first briefed at the WH during Desert Storm, one of the leading lights there said to me, "you mean there are two kinds of Islam?"  We have gotten a little past that but not much.

THE PLAN hinges on the willing cooperation of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Gulflets, Egypt and a fleeting, ephemeral, will of the wisp group called the "Fake Syrian Army" (FSA).  Oops! Make that the "Free Syrian Army."  

Marty said a couple of times today that the situation in Syria is that all the Sunni Arabs are combined together against Assad's handful of Alawis and a few others.

Where did he get that idea?  DIA is a competent organization and they work for him.  With that notion in mind Marty expects that we will be able to recruit 5,400 previously untrained Syrians from refugee camps, send them to a year's military training in Saudi Arabia, organize them and maybe a few more contingents in later cohorts into "brigades" and then send them into Syria where they will defeat both IS and the SAG.

A major flaw in this scheme is the simple truth that many, many Sunni Arabs in Syria adhere to the Syrian government because they are in abject terror of IS, the Nusra Front and similar bands of medieval lunatics.  The Syrian Army is now thought to be around 130,000 in number.  30% of that is Sunni Arabs.  In addition there are 100,000 odd Shabiha pro-government militia.  God knows how many IS there will be by then.  Marty thinks they will have melted away, afeered of US air power.

McCain and his consort, the OLFSC, asked a few good questions today:

- Are we going to send this analog of the "Bay of Pigs Brigade" into combat against all there might be by then in Syria without benefit of air cover and CAS?  The answer seemed to be yes in the expectaion that the people of Cuba, err, Syria will rise to strike down all malefactors. and thus eliminate the need to grasp uncomfortable nettles.

- What happens if the Brigadistas are defeated by the bad people? asked McCain.  Ah, they won't be, seemed to be the answer from Marty.

- But what if they are, pressed the OLFSC?  Numb silence at the thought ensued.

- What would you do if this PLAN failed asked McCain?  Marty replied that all plans are based on assumptions (true) and that if the "Plateau of Sheep" PLAN fails, then his assumption (that it would succeed) would have been proven wrong and there would have to be ANOTHER PLAN.  The atmosphere was then laden with the implication that ANOTHER PLAN would mean that the US would take over the war and fight it with its own forces.

Well, boys and girls, IMO that would mean several more years of COINista baloney in Syria AFTER we conquer the country, and then a long, long occupation by us.

I will not dwell at length on Turkey's feckless abandonment of NATO, Iraq's general fecklessness, Saudi Arabia's untrustworthiness and all the rest.  Maybe we will do that some other time.  pl  

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/transcript-hagel-testifies-to-the-senate-armed-services-committee-on-the-islamic-state/2014/09/16/a4909e26-3dab-11e4-b0ea-8141703bbf6f_story.html

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/110914/World/Region/Whos-who-on-the-IraqSyria-battleground.aspx

Comments

[mo]

Oh dear God. "we will be able to recruit 5,400 previously untrained Syrians from refugee camps, send them to a year's military training in Saudi Arabia,"

If this comes with a salary, they will be able to recruit 54,00 from the refugee camps rather than 5,400. And right up to the point of deployment they will be willing and able. Then watch them suddenly disappear so quick you may be lucky if you had 540.

But two points I am struggling with:
If the US stated objective is to be rid of IS and not Assad, why this ridiculous plan that believes 5000 greenhorns couldn't do what the thousands of experienced and trained ex-AQ and ex-SAA could not? This "plan" does nothing to dissuade one of the notion that this is just Syrian-invasion Plan B

The second question is Turkey's behavior. Why is Turkey so fond of IS? As deluded as Erdogan is, does he really think that having these people at his doorstep and to continue having them under control is a viable plan? Does he think IS will be his New Model Army that will back the Caliphate to Ankara? Can he be truly that stupid?

[turcopolier]

Mark

Lordy! Lordy! Ah do declah! SIR Michael Caine. Lordy! Seriously, sort of, I first read "The Washing of the Spears" when it was published, 1965 maybe? I was in Panama in the 8th SFGA. I loaned it to another fellah and his pet ocelot et it, as Gonville or Chard would have said. This was a seriously good book The US Naval attaché wrote it in his spare time during his time in London. Great movie. I see that you live up near Arlington. Ever been to RTs? I was there the other night and et a lovely dish of haddock baked and stuffed with crawfish and little shrimp and finished with a slightly spicy beurre blanc sauce. Lovely. pl

[jonst]

I liked how they kept calling Special Operations "Special Operators". Which was a first for me. Am I wrong on this? Talk about surreal...the Dems are gonna get killed in Nov. Not saying it is the right thing or wrong thing. I just think it is gonna happen that way. Nation is ready to throw everyone out, if we could.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Yes, Khamenei is a statesman, like Putin; the rest are midgets trying at being statesmen.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I think so too; NATO can invoke its Article 5 and then Turkey is contractually obliged to join the fight.

I think in case of ISIS, Turkey is acting like the old Persian proverb: "Thieves' Comrade and Caravan's Companion".

[confusedponderer]

I propose that the 5400 men recruited shall henceforth be called the "Hauran of Sheep Martyr Brigade".

[McGee]

Appropriate to this conversation is an as always informed comment on this nonsensical policy which appeared yesterday by Andrew Bacevich:

http://www.newsmax.com/US/ISIS-Catholic-conservative-military/2014/09/16/id/594975/

Here's the money-quote:

The approach that the administration has cobbled together — American air power plus surrogates on the ground supported by a hastily assembled coalition vaguely promising to assist "as appropriate" — does not qualify as a strategy. It's another version of whack-a-mole. It's important to understand that point.

ISIS emerged from a set of nontrivial conditions afflicting many nations across the Greater Middle East. Figuring prominently among those conditions are political dysfunction, economic underdevelopment, and social alienation, along with the pernicious residue of European colonialism still lingering everywhere from arbitrary borders to thieving local elites. Those so inclined can throw into the mix the ongoing plight of the Palestinian people.

Were the United States and its partners miraculously to succeed tomorrow in destroying ISIS and its leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdad, those conditions would still persist. As a consequence, another "ISIS" under another banner, inspired by a new leader, would almost certainly appear. And we'll find ourselves right back where we are today.

[ISL]

Dear Colonel

Re: "you mean there are two kinds of Islam?"

could I suppose be rewritten:

"you mean there are more than two types of Islam and within each they dont agree on everything?" - unlike any other religion (irony alert).

I have continued watching Jalawla (a strategic city connecting Baghdad and Iran) developments, which remains under IS control. At one point, Iran reported significant troops fighting IS, then for unexplained reasons, they returned. Then the feared Pershamerga were going to retake Jalawla, but:

http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/iraq/16092014

reports that a month ago they found urban fighting too challenging (I paraphrase) and retreated - despite Iranian air force and Iraqi air force strikes.

Most interesting is that the govt of Iraq is reported in the article to be recruiting a local tribe to fight the Pershamerga - not IS.

I suppose "with friends (allies to fight for us) like these, what could possibly go wrong?"

[The Twisted Genius]

jonst,

Those in SMUs (special mission units) like Delta and ST6, or whatever they call themselves now, refer to themselves as operators. It's the term most prevalent among JSOC and SOCOM headquarters types. This is not so among the Special Forces Groups the last I heard. They are still Green Berets or soldiers.

[Origin]

Swerv21, Mo, the Col., and anyone else who may want to chime in:

Would not a Sunnistan Satrapy in Western Iraq and Syria be a convenient balance of power against Iran and Shia Iraq for KSA and Turkey?

Also, could there be a competition between Turkey and KSA for control of the Satrapy with IS and Al Nusra being proxies for the two competing sides?

This process would seem to be consistent with the evidence. IS seems to have sprung forth, fully formed with Turkey and KSA as its founding sponsors. IS is recruiting in Turkey and KSA with the cooperation of both countries. Turkey has allowed IS to us it as its rear support area and has provided safe transit and medical services to IS fighters. Turkey is friendly to the Muslim Brotherhood and is now giving some of its Egyptian exiled leaders sanctuary.

Perhaps Turkey, a majority Hanafi country, sees itself controlling the Sunnistan Satrapy with a subservient Muslim Brotherhood in power. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiqh#Sunni_jurisprudence
Adding the MB to the control set of IS would fulfill the MB dream of controlling territory. By Turkey promoting having the MB take control over the Sunnistan Satrapy from the Hanbali IS, the change of management may make the Satrapy less horrid and more tolerable within the community of nations. After all, the world did not freak when the MB took over Egypt. If successful, Turkey would regain some of its Ottoman restoration dream.

KSA competes by trying to gain advantage for its jihadis hoping IS with its Mecca goal gets weakened or supplanted by KSA more controllable jihadis. While KSA may not like the MB much, KSA may see compromise with Turkey on the MB takeover of the IS as some insurance against the current Mecca aspirations of the current IS leadership.

Jordan gets billions in US "training" subsidies and hopefully, for it a sufficiently stable Sunnistan that may someday be able to repatriate some of the refugees.

The Muslim Brotherhood and the Jihadis get their meme of a Caliaphate fulfilled, but in a watered down and more "controlled" version. (Of course, a more aggressive version cannot be ruled out.)

Lebanon loses its supply corridor to Iran through Syria and perhaps some territory to the glee of Israel.

Israel gets years more of chaos and division among its adversaries and a weakened Hezbollah.

For the world, the most vicious Jihadis get used up in the meat grinder and targeted airstrikes.

For the US, Iran and Shiite Iraq is balanced against Sunnistan, rendering both weaker in the future by facing each other down in unending competition.

Oil is cheaper and supply is increased because all Sunnistan needs to sell low to support its constant chaos and corruption to enrich the Caliph and his court.

The drug cartels get a jihadist Sunnistan that will be so corrupt and chaotic that the routes from Afghanistan via Iran through Sunnistan to the sea will be easily accessed. http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/drug-trafficking/index.html

Meantime, the lame duck Obama gets to play golf, siting on the sidelines waiting for the sorting-hat to work its wonders and posit the problems on the coming Republican President's administration. The military gets to fight enough to keep up its skills and gets some recovery time while doing some low level bombing practice against the worst of ISIL to remove appropriated US equipment and the worst jihadis from the theater. DoD gets the plum of a few more billions in budget. McCain and TOLFSC get to spend more taxpayer provided junket time in the Levant preening their egos smoozing with the "good" terrorists and puffing on morning shows about how incompetent the administration is. With the appearance of "doing something" now, if it all goes awry, no one presently in power has to take responsibility because the blow-back will fall on the next administration.

This all seems to fit the current evidence. Committee, is there any truth in the analysis?

[mo]

The Sadrist Peace Brigades and Kitaeb Hizballah, 2 of the largest groups fighting IS in Iraq, are withdrawing from the fight due to US involvement.

[lew]

I did not realize that Turkey et al were 'ours' to lose.

[pbj]

Mark Logan,

re: Assad forming his own "rebel" group (to receive US assistance?) Whoa... you just blew my mind

[DH]

For years the Sunni have had the short end of the stick in Syria and Iraq. Is it time they had their own territory?

On the other hand, the current devastation is working to degrade the intense tribal nature of native Sunnis and force Wahhabism on them.

Also, there is the introduction of foreign genetic material to be considered.

[DH]

I'm surprised Balls to the Wall McCain is not behind this full force. What am I missing?

[DH]

If it ever comes up, it's Camilla, Duchess of Cornwall.

[turcopolier]

ISL

The person referred to was a member of the kitchen cabinet and did not know there were two main forms of Islam. pl

[jonst]

Two peas in a pod...Putin and Khamenei. Yeah, in a way, you are correct, they set the standard for what passes as "Statesmen' these days.

[jonst]

Really TTG, "operators"? Thanks for the heads up! Irony free I imagine. But it works for me. LOL...

[confusedponderer]

Simple: It isn't enough.

He wants the US to bomb Damascus tonight. Chuck's and Marty's proposal postpone such blissfull phantasies for a year at least, unless it can't be otherwise helped, say, by an opportune reiteration of Ghouta.

[robt willmann]

confusedponderer,

Angling off topic, but on a current conflict and mess just the same -- Ukraine -- is this report true, that someone or some organization (possibly in Germany?) has offered a $30 million reward for information showing who did the shootdown of Malaysian flight MH17 and who was behind it? (Scroll down the webpage a little)--

http://www.mmnews.de/index.php/politik/20710-mh17-30-mio-kopfgeld-fuer-taeter

Is it legitimate? Is it a false front for the perpetrators to find out who witnesses and whistleblowers are? Is it a hoax?

[mo]

Origin,
The only thing missing from your analysis is the "black swan"

[VietnamVet]

Origin

Why blame conspiracy when incompetence will do? But, I agree with your post. It is supported by the following observations:

The Shiite Crescent is cut. The House of Saud paid lots of money to the Jihadists and they achieved their goal.

The Assad regime change campaign continues even though the Syrian Army with Hezbollah help is the only effective Jihadi killer in the Levant.

The Sequestration cuts to DOD are dead.

The Turkish border remains open for Jihadi recruits and supplies.

The ongoing religious war between Sunnis, Jews, Shiites, Alawites and Christians is gaining momentum. The 2003 invasion of Iraq was a fluke. Hezbollah in 2006, the Syrian rebels in Damascus Suburbs and Hamas in Gaza have developed defensive tactics that make seizure of Arab rubble impossible unless encircled and starved out. All the USA can do is blow up sand, mud bricks and concrete until it goes broke.

As with all wars the unintended will happen especially religious ones fought without any strategy except to kill the unbelievers. The belief that there will be no blowback is farcical. Even Brian Williams, NBC News, reported that the world is falling apart:
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tom-blumer/2014/09/03/nbcs-williams-speaks-twice-world-falling-apart-tuesday-nightly-news-shie

[Origin]

mo,

Who knows when, but Black Swans often change the tilt of things. Perhaps she will alight in Dhu al-Hijjah 1436 AH somewhere in Mecca? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grand_Mosque_Seizure

It would be fitting.

[Origin]

VV,

I do not view it as a conspiracy, but as a process resulting from the competing memes of Turkey and KSA, spiced by Israel as spoiler and the US as sucker.