A Strategy of Hopes and Dreams

 

 

(Sean Connery and what's his name in "The Man Who Would be King.)

Marty and Chuck were up on the Hill today before the Senate "Committee On The Conduct Of The War" (oops, wrong war) to explain the modalities of the US led coalition's coming degradation and then destruction of IS at the hands of the "Coalition of the Feeble Arabs."  Their pleadings matched up well with my post of a few days ago entitled "Too Many Moving Parts, Too Many."

Chuck called him Marty on TV today, so I will also.  Sorry, general.  I thought you were the professional head of the US armed forces but your boss thinks you are "Marty."  I suppose that his squadmates always called him Chuck.

What came through strongly to me in this day's work, was the unreality of the whole thing.  It was largely an expression of various planning goals and hopes assembled by people who still do not understand the peoples of the region, Islam, etc. as well as the fact that those peoples have their own agendas which usually include the desired goal of making fools out of the ifranj, the poor, trusting ifranj.  Someone reminded me recently that when I first briefed at the WH during Desert Storm, one of the leading lights there said to me, "you mean there are two kinds of Islam?"  We have gotten a little past that but not much.

THE PLAN hinges on the willing cooperation of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, the Gulflets, Egypt and a fleeting, ephemeral, will of the wisp group called the "Fake Syrian Army" (FSA).  Oops! Make that the "Free Syrian Army."  

Marty said a couple of times today that the situation in Syria is that all the Sunni Arabs are combined together against Assad's handful of Alawis and a few others.

Where did he get that idea?  DIA is a competent organization and they work for him.  With that notion in mind Marty expects that we will be able to recruit 5,400 previously untrained Syrians from refugee camps, send them to a year's military training in Saudi Arabia, organize them and maybe a few more contingents in later cohorts into "brigades" and then send them into Syria where they will defeat both IS and the SAG.

A major flaw in this scheme is the simple truth that many, many Sunni Arabs in Syria adhere to the Syrian government because they are in abject terror of IS, the Nusra Front and similar bands of medieval lunatics.  The Syrian Army is now thought to be around 130,000 in number.  30% of that is Sunni Arabs.  In addition there are 100,000 odd Shabiha pro-government militia.  God knows how many IS there will be by then.  Marty thinks they will have melted away, afeered of US air power.

McCain and his consort, the OLFSC, asked a few good questions today:

- Are we going to send this analog of the "Bay of Pigs Brigade" into combat against all there might be by then in Syria without benefit of air cover and CAS?  The answer seemed to be yes in the expectaion that the people of Cuba, err, Syria will rise to strike down all malefactors. and thus eliminate the need to grasp uncomfortable nettles.

- What happens if the Brigadistas are defeated by the bad people? asked McCain.  Ah, they won't be, seemed to be the answer from Marty.

- But what if they are, pressed the OLFSC?  Numb silence at the thought ensued.

- What would you do if this PLAN failed asked McCain?  Marty replied that all plans are based on assumptions (true) and that if the "Plateau of Sheep" PLAN fails, then his assumption (that it would succeed) would have been proven wrong and there would have to be ANOTHER PLAN.  The atmosphere was then laden with the implication that ANOTHER PLAN would mean that the US would take over the war and fight it with its own forces.

Well, boys and girls, IMO that would mean several more years of COINista baloney in Syria AFTER we conquer the country, and then a long, long occupation by us.

I will not dwell at length on Turkey's feckless abandonment of NATO, Iraq's general fecklessness, Saudi Arabia's untrustworthiness and all the rest.  Maybe we will do that some other time.  pl  

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/transcript-hagel-testifies-to-the-senate-armed-services-committee-on-the-islamic-state/2014/09/16/a4909e26-3dab-11e4-b0ea-8141703bbf6f_story.html

http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/2/8/110914/World/Region/Whos-who-on-the-IraqSyria-battleground.aspx

Comments

[confusedponderer]

I confess to have been shamelessly plagiarising the term for its hilarity.

[lally]

Col.

This Reddit Q&A with Eliah Magnier may be of interest to you and the SST community at large. Because of the open nature of the format, it is somewhat random but does contain some gems. This one, in particular, seems suited to this thread:

"Hello Elijah, Besides training militias what role is hezbollah playing in Iraq? Do you see them increasing their role as in taking part in combat against IS? also America plans to start training the Iraqi Army again, how will that work if hezb is training them as well? thank you for your time
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[–]ejmagnier[S] 1 point 51 minutes ago
Hello. Hezbollah role in Iraq is indeed increasing in number, training officers and above that level as well. Hezbollah is leading some combat ops in Iraq and is involved in training and boosting the ideology. Iraqi are the one who will fight not only in Iraq but also in Syria. The number of Iraqi is so high that is impossible for Hezbollah to match. therefore, these will be seen, starting form next year, fighting IS in Syria as well."
permalinkparent

From an 8/26 Guardian article about Iraq shia militia , one Iraqi fighter described the training regimen of Hezbollah: "We are a resistance faction that have been sent to at least three outside training camps in Iran and Lebanon under the supervision of Hezbollah. Each lasted for two months. Do you know what it means to go for 60 days under constant grueling by Hezbollah? You come back as a new person. You can't compare us with those soldiers who joined the army for money."

[Fred]

Tyler,

"Secular Calvinism is the name of the game."

On that note you'll be glad to know that Pussy Riot is still on the liberal academia gravy train. They are in Ann Arbor Michigan tonight courtesy of the Univeristy of Michigan. I wonder if they would have been invited had they held that anti-Putin "protest" in a synagogue?

[mo]

DH,
HA have not left Syria. You are probably confusing them with Kataeb Hizballah of Iraq who say they will not fight if the US is involved. HA's involvement in Syria is too important for Lebanon for them to abandon the fight there

[DH]

cp, within the last three weeks or so I have recommended that a red line be established to preserve Damascus' Christians, Jews, Alawites, and pro-Assad Sunnis. I am pro-Assad for the practical reasons of preserving the cosmopolitan essence of the Damascus/Aleppo corridor. But I'm guessing the capitol of the first Caliphate is too juicy a plum for the FSA to pass by.

I'm stating that IMO it is do-able, as far as waiting for ISIL, FSA, al-Nusra (in collaboration) to take out Assad, and then for the Coalition to bat clean-up. That is, aiding indigenous Iraqis and Syrians in whatever manner they need to put down ISIL.

[DH]

Thank you, mo, that is correct. I read so many links here I sometimes lose the thread.

[Charles Dekle]

VV,
I know a little something about modern engineering and I am afraid that I agree with your assessment.
Regards,

[Charles Dekle]

GereldH,
I had forgotten about that incident. Thank you. It reminds me of how well the Brits vetted Kim Philby and his cohorts.
Regards,

[Ishmael Zechariah]

Col. Lang, SST;

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/141848/kenneth-m-pollack/an-army-to-defeat-assad

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-19/mistakes-excuses-and-painful-lessons-from-the-iraq-war.html

Words fail...

Ishmael Zechariah

[Tyler]

Fred,

As you well know, there are two sets of rules: One for the Chosen and one for the goyim. Much like how Israel is allowed to have borders but any other country wanting to preserve its identity is literally Hitler.

Mascha Gedden must be furiously looking up from her plate of foreskins and wondering why we haven't started WWIII with Russia yet every night. The fact that Pussy Riot isn't at the bottom of a hole courtesy of Comrade Makarov is a poor balm.

[confusedponderer]

DH,
I'm pro-Assad for the same practical reason.

Like you, I don't think a red line is feasible because it won't mean anything to ISIS.

As for waiting for JAN and ISIS to take out Assad ant to then go in and clean up the mess will mean full occupation.

Aiding indigenous Iraqis and Syrians won't do, because, to bring down Assad, JAN and ISIS will fight the very people who are curently the only ones to offer them stiff resistance, and hat is the Syrian army and militias and Hezbollah types.

Looking out fo those other indigenous, secular and anti-Assad Iraqis and Syrians to then fill the vacuum is akin to Pyle looking for his "Third Force". I don't see it materialising.

[Fred]

IZ,

Yes, Mr. Pollack helped cheerlead America to the great victory in Iraq. What we need is another regime change - in Syria - based off his advice. It worked so well last time.

[Misanthrope]

I was wondering when Israel was going to pipe up. They've been remarkably quiet over the whole ISIS thing. Considering how much fuss they make over Hamas, who have little more than firecrackers and AKs for weapons, you would have thought they would be absolutely apoplectic over the prospect of a large number of liver-eating head-chopping Wahhabi fanatics close to their borders, equipped with lots of heavy weapons seized from the Iraqi and Syrian armies. But no, they still want Assad ousted from power in Syria. Anyone can see, surely, that if that were to happen, ISIS would just take over the whole of Syria. Unless, of course, Israel wants more Lebensraum and decides to annex part of it for itself.

I'm having a hard time believing this is all just incompetence since it is so obvious that damaging Syria makes ISIS stronger. I still reckon ISIS is a put up job. It's possible that they might have deviated from the script they were given. But surely if they're as much of a problem as we're led to believe, it would be worth reaching an arrangement with the Syrians to help get rid of them.

[Origin]

CP and All,

Whatever "Third Force" must be deeply Muslim and cannot be western in its essence. Any western occupying force will fail.

Turkey seems to be the only rational and available "Third Force". KSA is too Wahhabi to enable any preservation of minorities. On the other hand, Turkey has a long tradition of "somewhat" protecting its minorities.

Do any of you in the Committee see Turkey as a real possibility of saving this thing over the next decade?

[turcopolier]

Origin

"Do any of you in the Committee see Turkey as a real possibility of saving this thing over the next decade?" No. pl

[Origin]

Col.

Do you see Turkey destroyed in the conflagration?

[turcopolier]

Origin
"Destroyed" Probably no, but I could easily imagine civil war. pl

[Babak Makkinejad]

Did you like Nixon any better?

[FB Ali]

I don't know much about the internal situation in Turkey, but my sense is that before it gets to the "civil war" stage there might well be one or more coups or coup attempts.

[turcopolier]

FB Ali

I don't know why people are so shy over the term "civil war." It seems to me that a coup or attempted coup in Turkey is very like civil war. pl

[DH]

cp, I've read in these pages or elsewhere speculation about a war using mainly Special Forces. I cannot see sending ground troops into that morass, it's just too soon and too fruitless. As has been said here, our presence will only bring in foreign jihadis, so I hope they will be largely left to figure it out among themselves.

[DH]

Origin, cp, lally, I'm thinking it will be Iran and Hezbollah to help the indigent Sunnis stop Isil, along with our Special Forces, I mean SOF, and air support.

[confusedponderer]

I agree with DH that Turkey, at least under Erdogan, won't be taking up that role, IMO at leasst as long as Assad remains in power.

If one accepts that - elected and relected or not - Erdogan is a Sunni Islamist in a business suit then the Shia, Alawis, Alevis, Yezidis are anathema to him, and so will be any solution that empowers or preserves any of these groups. He also appears to have problems with Sufis of the Gulen type.

What would IMO be a natural preference for him is to reassert Turkish dominance over these former dominions. He must be sure though that this would meet violent resistance.

He isn't symathetic to the Kurds either: In my reading has offered them peace under the rubric of them all being muslims. That is IMO essential. To me that means he does not accept their irredentist tendencies.

[The beaver]

Colonel

Latest news:
The 49 hostages have been released:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-29291946

[different clue]

confusedponderer,

Yesterday in the New York Times I saw a small ad taken out by Fethula Gulen condemning ISIS in every possible very strongest way.