Clapper's Floating Corpse

 

(I decided to revert to this picture on advice of the committee.)

“What we didn’t do was predict the will to fight. That’s always a problem. We didn’t do it in Vietnam. We underestimated the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese and overestimated the will of the South Vietnamese. In this case, we underestimated ISIL [the Islamic State] and overestimated the fighting capability of the Iraqi army. . . .I didn’t see the collapse of the Iraqi security force in the north coming. I didn’t see that. It boils down to predicting the will to fight, which is an imponderable.”

Intelligence officials haven’t publicly discussed the prospects for success of President Obama’s small-footprint strategy for combating the Islamic State through a coalition of nations, without directly committing U.S. combat troops. But some officials appear wary.  Ignatius in the Washpost

-------------------------------

The Afghans have a modismo (a saying) that runs something like  "All that is necessary for true satisfaction is to sit by the side of the river until the body of your enemy floats by."

I have a long standing and personal problem with Jimmy Clapper, and I am still waiting for the "float by" of the body.  The man perjured himself before the senate last year.  Obama protected him from prosecution.  Clapper still refuses to acknowledge his crime.

He has always been an incompetent intelligence officer.  He really is a bureaucratic, scheming politician who happens to be embedded in the intelligence business.   

Now he admits this disastrous failure on his watch.  "We" did this and "We" did that?  Did he listen to the analysts?  Did he?  Did he advocate their positions?

He seems puzzled that the US keeps overestimating the ability of "friendly" forces.  In many years of participation in this process, I have always seen the same thing.  We overestimate the friendlies because the policy people who are the masters of government punish those who insist on saying that "the friendlies" are a pile of crap. They do that because they feel that "the friendlies" are their guys, the existence of whom is the product of the policy peoples' wisdom and they therefore resent criticism of "the friendlies."  Since Jimmy and those like him are walking masses of unrestrained ambition they are careful not to displease the mighty.

Why is the man not gone?  pl  

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-we-underestimated-the-islamic-state-james-clapper-says/2014/09/18/f0f17072-3f6f-11e4-9587-5dafd96295f0_story.html

Comments

[William R. Cumming]

Great post PL! And to answer the question asked this Administration believes documents the Administration's incompetence not individual incompetence.

[Haralambos]

Col. Lang,
I will apologize in advance for posting two comments in quick succession on these two latest threads, but both topics have been in my sights for a fairly long time. This piece on Clapper is, I know, one of your "issues" for some time along with other folks who have perjured themselves before Congress. I am reluctant to launch a witch-hunt, but I have hoped to see impeachment proceedings against several folks, such as Andy Card for his convening the White House Iraq Group: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_House_Iraq_Group
and then crediting himself with his military experience based on one year on a Navy ROTC Scholarship and one year at the US Coast Guard Academy.

Add to this Dick Cheney and Scooter Libby, who exposed Valerie Plame, and Karl Rove, who crafted the codpiece landing by Bush the Younger to signal Mission Accomplished announcement.

[Haralambos]

Haralambos in expansion on Haralambos. This is as quote that has been floating in my mind over a few years.

"Above all, you must realize that if you go ahead with this invasion, Osama bin Laden will triumph, rising from his grave or seclusion. His network will be swollen with fresh recruits, and other charismatic individuals will seek to build upon his model, multiplying those networks. And the United States will have delivered the death blow to itself. Using your own act of war, Osama and his cohort will irrevocably divide the hearts and minds of the Arab Street from moderate governments in Islamic countries that have been holding back the tide. Power to the people, what we call "democracy," will secure the rise of fundamentalists. Susan Lindauer’s last letter to Andrew Card, January 6, 2003.

"Susan Lindauer sent her eleventh and last letter on the Iraqi political situation to then Bush chief of staff Andrew Card on January 6, 2003, just two months before General Franks gave the command to invade on March 20, 2003. " http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0710/S00266.htm

This seems to me prescient in regard to the current campaign and what ISIS or ISIL intend with their beheadings.

Full disclosure: I am a first cousin of Andy Card and we are both second-cousins of Susan Lindauer. I have not spoken with either of them in over 25 years.

[Babak Makkinejad]

And before them were Admiral Pointdexter and Col. North...

[elaine]

I was just reading "Noquarterusa.net," Larry Johnson's blog
& someone named John-Frank posted a link to a NY Times, 9-19-14 article, "U.S. goal is to make Syrian rebels viable." There's a photo of their leader in Wahabbi dress named Sheik Tawfiq Shahabuddin. His battalion is named "Nureddin Zengi movement," named after a famous Arab fighter during the Crusades who killed many Christians. The
Sheik seemed to really have a hatred of Assad but willing to go against ISIS also in return for U.S. & S.A. aid.

I'm starting to think the Christians of Iraq & Syria are just going to be collateral damage in this conflict. So far I see no evidence that they're being welcomed or granted refugee status in the U.S.

I contacted both of my senators requesting heavy arms for the Kurds & both of my Republican Senators instead voted to arm & train Salafis instead.

"WARNING graphic photos (RAW)-ISIS begins killing Christians in Mosul, children beheaded"
www.catholic.org/news/international/middle_east/story.php?
id=56481

[Fred]

Babak,

At least those two were both tried and convicted in court.

[different clue]

Haralambos,

I think we can thank Speaker of the House Pelosi specifically and by name for the lack of impeachment of Bush, Cheney, and some of their worst little helpers.

I tried persuading some people to vote Democratic just one more time on the basis of my hopeful vision that if the House got a Democratic majority; that mean old John Conyers would become the Chairman of the Judiciary Committee and he would permit the creation of some kind of working Committee group to look into the possibility of Articles of Impeachment. The Intelligence Community would want to get even with the Bushites for betraying Agent Plame and destroying her proprietary and possibly foreign assistants linked to it. I imagined that people would begin a slow drip-feed of nasty information to echo over time between the Committee and the Media, and a slow building crescendo of unavoidable evidence would lead to Impeachments which could lead to criminal trials. And then Pelosi burst my bubble with "Impeachment is off the table."
Not only that, she promised to take away Conyers's Chairmanship if he permitted any such hearings to go ahead anyway.

Pelosi clearly supported the Bush Administration. What was her vested interest in the success of the Cheney-Bushites on the Cheney-Bushites's own terms? And what does it say about the real agenda of the Democratic Party leadership?

[MRW]

Clapper is quoted at the bottom of the Ignatius interview:

"He offered a caustic mission statement, which he repeated publicly Thursday: “We are supposed to keep the country safe, predict anticipatory intelligence, with no risk, and no embarrassment if revealed, and without a scintilla of jeopardy to privacy of any domestic person or foreign person. We call that ‘immaculate collection.’ ”

Good thing he wasn't in charge during WWII. How would he have been able to manage without a spy-on-your-citizens communications network?

"Predict anticipatory intelligence?" By his own admission he didn't know the questions to ask, even though he claims he had Vietnam as a precedent.

[c webb]

Sophists support sophists.

[different clue]

Elaine,

I hear that part of the plan may be to give anti-aircraft weapons and capabilities to the "counter-ISIS" coalition. I haven't researched enough to know if I heard right or wrong.

But if I heard right, I think the real and hidden reason for giving any "counter ISIS" forces such weapons would be to have them shoot down planes flying supplies over Iraq to the Syrian government forces.

And yes, the R2Pers, of all people; are showing a most callous disregard for the million or more Christians, Alawites, Yazidis, etc. to be expelled or enslaved or exterminated by the various rebels, including the so-called "counter-ISIS" rebels in Syria, should they take power. One has come to expect this indifference from the NeoCons, but the R2Pers claim they want to be known for wanting to protect targeted groups of people.

[Aka]

All,
about the issue of non-prosecution/ non-investigation of high level officials (with good political connections or politicians themselves):

There is a saying in my country which sounds like "dogs don't eat (devour) dogs". It means when the politicians are corrupted to a certain level, they want go after their political counter-parts because they, themselves are doing the same thing.

They do this to avoid a culture of reprisals after loosing an election.

[DH]

Based on the Clapper quote, I think a dunce's cap would have been more apt.

[Babak Makkinejad]

When ISIS was slaughtering Christians in Syria, US and EU were silent.

When Iranian intelligence busted an Israeli spy ring in Shiraz and ten Iranian Jews stood trial; US and EU states were all over the place crying foul and demanding - nay ordering - a suspension of trial.

During the presidency of Bush II, US government had hired the Jewish Agency to help religious minorities - Jews for the most part - to leave Iran and settle in US.

By the way, Nurredin Zangi - "Light of Religion the Black" almost certainly was a Black African slave.

[Babak Makkinejad]

I very much doubt that MAPADs will be furnished to Syrian rebels - they would wind up being sold to ISIS or used against Israel.

[Piotr, Poland]

The primal problem is politicians don't treat intelligence analysts as the valuable independent source of knowledge.
Politicians have their own ideas how to deal with the actual problem, and all the intelligence people should to do is to find the reasons why their idea is so good, support this idea and elaborate the details of it.

Those analysts, who try to think outside the box and be independent, are sent to side path of career, so most of analysts understand well, where the sweets are hidden and know that sweets are given to polite children only.
And this process is not specifically American. Same things you can see in most European countries too.

Industry often uses "stress tests" to the controversial ideas of firm's developement and try to find as much of "what-if-go-wrongs" as possible then correct the developement strategy. Looks for me like politicians don't use this tool at all, or use it in empty ritual way, without any real meaning of it.

Not many politicians can hear opinions opposite to their own and try to take those oppinions into account for correcting their primary views. Those who could, almost always are called "great" by the historians

[oofda]

And don't forget General Tommy Franks, who went into Iraq with absolutely no plan for what happened afterwards. In Roman times, a general who did something like that would have been literally crucified.

[Fred]

Col,

Since the new caption photo now quotes Clapper's perjury, here's another example of Constitutional violations by our government:
http://tinyurl.com/mjkm9m8

Needless to say Eric Holder has not prosecuted the agent(s) responsible. Apparently Obama approves.

[turcopolier]

fred

I finally decided that my dislike of this man had led me to go too far. pl

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Your comment brings to mind Larry Summers lecturing Elizabeth Warren five years ago, “Insiders Don’t Criticize Other Insiders.”
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2014/04/29/stunning-quote-larry-summers-to-elizabeth-warren-in-2009-insiders-dont-criticize-other-insiders/

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Piotr & All
In his history of the CIA entitled "Legacy of Ashes" Tim Weiner describes how Allen Dulles overtly demonstrated his disrespect for the analytical side of the house. He kept a scale in his office and when an analyst came in to deliver the Director's personal copy of a major report Dulles would sometimes weigh the document and make a comment on how it must be good since it was the heaviest he had ever received. Or didn't weigh enough to be worth reading. Or some other such snide comment. It appears that element of the institutional culture lives on.

[SteveG]

oofda
Agreed. However was it not Von Rumsfeld and
Cheneys plan all along? Rummy controlled
everything in DOD remember the constant
"snow flake" memos. Democracy is a messy
business and Condis "birth pangs of democracy"
I believe Franks retired soon after. Maybe his
conscience kicked in or was he forced out.
Bremers deBaathification completed the down-
ward spiral we are still seeing today.

[JohnH]

Good question. I often wondered why Pelosi threatened David Obey, chairman of the Appropriations Committee, when he tried to use his clout as chair to make an issue of Iraq War spending. This came just after the Democrats had won the House back in 2006, partly due to Americans' dissatisfaction with the war.

Instead, Democrats scheduled "surge" hearings to coincide with 9-11-2007, giving Bush their blessings to pursue the fight.

Like many DC Democrats, "liberal" Pelosi's campaign positions are mere poses.

[William Fitzgerald]

Haralambos,

The Susan Lindauer story and interview are so stunning that I advise everyone to read it. One of my reactions was an eerie thought that the plots imagined in a host of books and films about what happens to those in the security apparatus of government who fail to support or oppose the party line.

On the Lockerbie bombing, one wonders what Dr. Fuisz knows that requires his silence. For my own part, I've always been fairly certain that the operation originated in Iran, whatever cutouts and out-sourcing were used in the execution. The reason was a quid pro quo response for the mid air destruction of Iran Air 655 by the USS Vincennes. The subsequent refusal of the U.S. government to apologize or make some sort of restitution, and to decorate and promote the officers responsible, made the destruction of Pan Am 103 quite probable.

Finally, in attempting to answer the question, "What is our problem?" I would venture that, more than most nations, American policy decisions are based on an a priori approach. Thus, whatever the facts may be, information must support the policy and woe betide the messenger who brings anything contrary.

WPFIII

[SteveG]

Col Lang

I don't believe you can go too far
with this crowd. Long gone is any
sense of respect and decorum given
or received from the opposition.
Off topic a bit. Watched final Roosevelt
segment. The criticism by the Repubs
of his sons participation in the war
seemed excessive. I believe Gen Doolittle
was shown giving the Distinguished
Flying Cross to his son after 300 combat
missions. That was not enough to escape
their carping. Would that elites had their
sons and daughters contribute at that
level today.

[J]

Colonel,

I don't think you have gone too far, especially since Clapper has put our nation in the dark both literally and figuratively.