A Few Points - 23 September 2014

(This map is somewhat inaccurate.  IS holds a lot more of Anbar Province than is shown as well as a group of towns SOUTH of Baghdad astride the roads to Kuwait)

Points:

- How much local "coalition air" actually participated in last night's well planned attacks in Syria?  Which targets did Jordan, Qatar, UAE, Bahrein and Saudi Arabia attack and with what?

- Egypt obviously declined an invitation to participate.  Why?

- France and Britain were absent from the night's festivities.  Why?

- The Syrian government was informed in advance and the Director of Operations (J-3) of the Joint Staff described Syrian air defense radar as "passive," i.e., unresisting, during the operation.  The Children's Crusade (NSC and State staffs) continues to insist that there was no coordination with the SAG.  Well, boys and girls, what occurred is called "de-confliction" among the adults and that is undoubtedly coordination.  Semantic BS does not change reality.  It just makes you look childish.

- The J-3 showed pictures that demonstrated that multi-million dollar air weapons can put a missile or bomb into a pickle barrel if that is desired, but, to what effect?  His pictures ahowed that very minimal damage had actually been inflicted in the effort to completely avoid civilian casualties.  That is commendable but the truth is that weapons can become so accurate that they are not impressive to the enemy, especially to an enemy like IS who WANT TO DIE.  IMO, IS will simply move on in adapting to the reality of US air attacks that seek to limit damage and casualties.  They have already been doing that by hiding their black flags and dispersing their assets among the civilian population.  Yes, I know, they are using "human shields."  So what?  

- Turkey remains an enormous problem for the Children's Crusade. They declined an invitation to participate in air attacks against IS. They continue to deny the US their air bases, but they are also blocking Turkish Kurds from entering the fight against IS and are complicit in marketing IS oil.

- Christiane Amanpour served up the Assad/IS alliance meme on CNN today.  This is absurd.  IS, Nusra Front and all the other opposition groups are the SAG's deadly enemies.  Buying the enemy's goods across the lines does not make you their ally.  In the American War Between the States, the Union Government authorized the purchase of the Confederacy's cotton across the lines under license from the US Government.  Why?  The North needed the cotton to make uniforms and tents for the Union Army.  Similarly Syria needs that oil to have a functioning economy.  That is quite different from Turkey's role in helping IS market its oil at home and abroad.  Turkey also continues to facilitate the flow of IS people in and out of Syria.

- An IO campaign is being waged against the American people.  The major media are complicit in this.  My sources in the CT community tell me that the Khorassan group is not a new phenomenon at all.  Its existence has been well known.  The targets have been long designated, but now at the moment in which the president's authority to wage unrestricted war is questioned this fear generating meme of imminent attacks in the United States is trundled out so that the media can whip up more war fever.

- The Iraqi Army and its Shia militia allies have been defeated once again.  In Anbar Province west of Baghdad the Iraqi Army lost over a hundred men killed or captured yesterday as well as an army fortified position.  In this process of defeat yet more American made equipment was captured by IS.  An army spokesman whined on in Baghdad about the poor training provided by the US. Pathetic.

If we Americans don't start learning to deal with realities rather than childish dreams we are going to have a very rought time in this war against IS, the Nusra Front, and eventuall against the thoroughly Islamist infiltrated FSA.  Grow up Obama and recognize the simple truth that the SAG is a de facto co-belligerent.  pl 

Comments

[Babak Makkinejad]

Col. Lang:

What I find intriguing is the word "Khorasan" - a historic name referring to an area covering parts of Iran, Afghanistan, as well as Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Khorasan.

Why "Khorasan" and why now?

[turcopolier]

Babak

This group seems to have its origins in Afghanistan and Pakistan and has moved westward to Syria where they have easy access to Western recruits and access to the West through Turkey. I think the name reference is to the Islamic horde that rode to the west from the Khorassan region in establishing the Abbasid caliphate. pl

[The Beaver]

Colonel,

Supposedly:

"The coalition conducted 14 strikes against Islamic State targets in the vicinity of Raqqa, Deir al-Zour, Al Hasahak, and Abu Kamal. Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates took part in the bombing, and Qatar supported the effort."

http://www.stripes.com/dod-syrian-al-qaida-affiliate-was-about-to-conduct-major-attacks-1.304588

Yeah right !!!
And yet Bahrain has to pay or rent mercs from Pakistan , Morocco and Jordan to fight its war on land against its Shi'a citizens whilst KSA use "friends" to fight the Houthis from Northern Yemen and Eastern S.A.

Qatar is supporting both sides and giving away $$$$ so that it can build that gas line through syria and turkey to reach the European market.

[Babak Makkinejad]

Abu Muslim Khorasani was the leader of the Abbasid Revolution that un-seated the Omavids.

He was later treacherously murdered by the first Abbasid Khalif.

Later, the Barmak family that was running the Abbasid bureaucracy was also liquidated by Harun Al Rashid.

[Haralambos]

All and any,
Please enlighten me in my ignorance. I have searched for the meaning of SAG on the military acronym sites I usually go to and find not satisfactory explanations given the two occurrences in this thread:
"Christiane Amanpour served up the Assad/IS alliance meme on CNN today. This is absurd. IS, Nusra Front and all the other opposition groups are the SAG's deadly enemies."
and "Grow up Obama and recognize the simple truth that the SAG is a de facto co-belligerent." Thank you in advance.

[Cee]

Babak,

I was just going to post about this after looking up that name.

[Origin]

Col.,

"Grow up Obama and recognize the simple truth that the SAG is a de facto co-belligerent."

One can argue that the USG has made a firm decision not to play with the SAG because it wants to reduce Russian and Iranian power in the region at all costs.

Could it be that the USG has decided that it actually supports and wants a Sunnistan to form and the current strikes and bluster are just the USG's trying to choose who is the ultimate ruling cadre? Could it be that JAN might be viewed as being more malleable than ISIL to fill the void existing after Assad is crushed?

After all, if Sunnistan forms, especially if it crunches the Assad government and Hezbollah reducing Iranian and Russian influence on the Mediterranean, it will stand as a counter balance that will likely be in constant conflict with Iran. The decision to allow or encourage the creation of Sunnistan would also explain the arguments over at Moon over Alabama that the opening along the Golan Heights by JAL, protected by Israel is not unplanned.

Of course, one can easily predict that there will be serious blow-back and the whole thing will probably become the USG's "tiger painting" that leaps off the wall to form a terrible reality. It appears that there is a significant possibility that Iran hatred has consumed good sense among those who "lead" US to the point of blindness of the salafist takfiri dreams that look toward Mecca instead of Persia.

Also, as an aside, Turkey may be approaching some serious stability issues related to its economy. http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/MID-01-230914.html

[c webb]

SAG: Syrian Arab Government

[ex-PFC Chuck]

Haralambos,
I have been wondering the same thing but have inferred from the contexts in which it's been used that it means Syrian Assad Government. I, too, want to know for certain to what the acronym refers.

[Fadi Agha]

The Lord moves in mysterious ways. This is how it's done!!

48 hours ago, Hezbollah showed recent (sept 21) footage of an aerial attack (by Iranian made, hezbollah manned) drones on Jabhat al Nusrah in Syria.
Today, the US struck ISIS in Syria ...
The Arab minions were supposedly part of these strikes, but i believe only in wishes and prayers and maybe (maybe) a token flyer tagging along on a US fighter.

[crf]

The Syrian Arab Government. (Assad's government and armed forces.)

[turcopolier]

Origin

We are not that clever. pl

[Cee]

Haralambos,

Someone else on CNN was trying to try ISIS to Iran today. Predictable.

[Haralambos]

c webb, ex.pfcChuck, and cf,

Thanks for this clarification. Haralambos

[Babak Makkinejad]

ISIS controls, say, 7 million souls.

The self-styled Resistance Axis has more than 120 million.

It does not compute Will Robinson.

[different clue]

Last night I heard Bob Baer being interviewed for a while on BBC . . . as the "permitted dissident" perhaps. He was only played once, not over and over like the pro-war interviewees were.

Mr. Baer said that he is in daily contact one way or another with representatives of the Arab Iraqi Sunni tribes.
They don't like ISIS very much but they will work with ISIS to make sure that they are never under any present or future Iran-oriented Shia government ever again. They keep wanting to contact the relevant parts of US government to explain their wants and needs in return for withdrawing support from ISIS. They keep sending agenda sheets to Baer which Baer keeps sending to the White House in hopes the President will see, hear, read and act. Baer says he KNOWS the agenda sheets hit the President's very own desk. He says he KNOWS the President and/or his people refuse to even read them.

Is Baer respected among the IC people here, at No Quarter, VIPS and other places? Should we factor what Baer said on BBC into our thinking?

[Fred]

Babak,

Looks like al-Baghdadi needs to watch his back for more than just Western attacks.

[Fred]

Origin,

"After all, if Sunnistan forms, especially if it crunches the Assad government..." One thing guaranteed in that event is the genocide of the Christian communities that have lived in Syria for 2,000 years.

[gemini33]

Col Lang, when you say Syrian govt is a de facto co-belligerent, do you mean de facto part of the anti-ISIS coalition?

[JohnH]

For an Arab terrorist group, the word 'khorasan' is totally inappropriate--it either means "earring" or "deaf, mute!" What self-respecting "terrorist" group would give itself such a name?

However, as you note, Khorasan is a region of Iran. Stay tuned! Soon the propagandists will announce that this is an Iranian terrorist organization coddled by Assad, bizarre as that may sound. Why else would it have moved from Iran to get greater access to recruits?

The dots do not connect, except as a propaganda operation.

[MRW]

Yeah, it would be nice if the first instance of an abbreviation was spelled out. Makes it easy to handoff to relatives and others we want to inform.

[JohnH]

Khorasan, Shmorasan. NY Times headline: "President Says Group Plotting to Attack US was hit." The President's legal authority to attack IS under the AUMF was dubious, very dubious.

With Khorasan's convenient appearance, the President's legal authority is now only dubious. That authority rests on the claim that Khorasan's is a group whose "leadership [consists] of an unrelated cell of veterans of Al Qaeda, who were said to be plotting an imminent attack against the United States or Europe."

Presto. Legal authority under AUMF is conjured up, like the rabbit out of the hat. And who in the media would ever question the plausibility of such an apparition?

[Jack Sparrow]

So how fast can those passive radars go active as a SAM trap?

[turcopolier]

JS

The point is that they did not. pl

[Aka]

Dear Col. & All,
no idea whether this is true or not.
A interview with an ex-ISIS cadre who was a Iraqi Kurd.

http://www.yourmiddleeast.com/culture/exclusive-qa-with-former-islamic-state-member_26696

In addition to the usual head chopping, raping etc. etc., IS can very easily cross in to Turkey because the border guards simply turn a blind eye most probably under orders from higher-up.