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29 August 2014

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LJ

There certainly were many ways well before and even after the Maidan to avoid unleashing the so-called punitive forces on the breakaway oblasts. I recall Dr. Kissinger putting forth proposals along lines that would diffuse the conflict. The supposed adults who took the reigns of power away from the Bush administration seem to want to insure that the "ark of instability" remains unstable. Ukraine. Syria. Libya. Afghanistan (the right war, unlike Iraq), now we have ISIS, with connections to the Western training and supply.

It's been called the empire of chaos.

I suggest the hermeneutical key is the Ukraine. We now have, or should have clarity. The Russian Federation is the primary target. Splitting the RF from the EU is a shorter term goal. The longer term goal is the about neutralizing Russia.

The globaltimes article suggests Israel and the neocons are at the heart of the matter. Maybe so. But it seems that the so-called adults are also into it up to their eyeballs. Everyone a neocon?

b

That piece is quite below the usual McClatchy standard.

It quotes one anti-Russian oligarch and the council of soldier mothers, which for years has been financed by the NED.

That's pure propaganda.

Fred

bth,

"According to Reuters, Russia’s budget is based on the assumption of an average oil price of $114 per barrel. It is nowhere near that high right now, however."

"Disproportional impact"? The important point is the assumption "budget based on $114/barrel" pricing. This quote from the man you linked to is not supported by any spot market data- Oil prices have never reached a sustained $114/barrel in history.

Fred

Mistah Charley,

"The estimate of at least 1,000 active Russian troops now fighting in Ukraine..."
But of course it is not that but the threat of additional sanctions, namely UEFA removing Russian teams from competition for the World Cup, that is going to lead to a change in Russian foreign policy?

pbj

@Patrick Bahzad,
Thanks!

William P. Fitzgerald III

LJ,
What is the reason for the "Ukraine gambit" is a question being answered in several ways, including NATO expansion and access to natural gas reserves. I think that the answer lies in the long range thinking of the people who constitute the foreign policy establishment in the U.S. and their like-thinking cohorts in European countries. My primary assumption is that, by the end of 2013, a stabilized Russia was on a slow path of economic and political integration into Europe. The result that historical process would be Europe no longer under the influence of America and an end to American hegemony. It seems logical that Russian integration is the worst nightmare for those whose goal is American domination. Thus we saw, in this "Annus Horribilis", the boycott by certain western heads of state of the winter Olympics over homosexuality (I suppose they couldn't think of anything else), the coup d'état in Kiev, the response in annexing Crimea, automony and declared in the east, economic sanctions on Russia, and the attack by Kiev forces. I think this mess is the general result intended ftom the beginning.

WPFIII

bth

Error on my part. Russian budget set for $104 per bbl not $114. Typo. Price falling to $93. One dollar drop is $1.4 billion usd to reduced russian government revenue. Pricing in mid 80's per bbl puts in strong deficit.

Financing of arctic projects now precluded due to capital access. In soviet afghan war did saudi driven low oil prices bankrupt evil empire? Would easing of iran sanctions now flood oil markets?

The beaver

@ Fred

May be FIFA should also cancel the 2022 WC ! :-)
After all , isn't Qatar on eof the financiers of the Jihadist rebels in Syria

Fred

bth,

Oil prices have to go allot lower than $93/barrel. That would also negatively impact US oil production. The Suadis are still going to have a problem with ISIS. Defeating them will require Russian assistance, destroying Putin's government will only make the defeat of ISIS (and thus maintenance of the current Saudi governmental structure) harder.

Fred

beaver,

Naw, think of the TV ratings an ISIS attack in Qatar would generate.

Thomas

Alba,

The Honorable Ones are showing the Kiddie Krew that Caliph Ibrahaim and the Islamic State are the real deal of a threat. That The Presider mentioned there is no policy yet is a good sign because it means that a thought through plan should be in the works.

LJ

Agree 100%.

And now Walrus is reporting Ukraine is being fast tracked into NATO. Was this gamed?

What then is the end game? I continue to see no reason other than the dissolution of the RF and its management by IMF technocrats.

Bandolero

LJ
In my opinion there where many ways of preventing this disaster and other disasters.

From what I see the Neocons are the speerhead of a larger pro-Israeli power network. The neocons provoke conflicts, the liberal Israeli power networks push a hard line to follow them, and soon after almost nobody in the US dares to challenge their faulty narratives, since the Israeli power network is really powerful and nobody, especially not the president, wants to appear weak. And when the US is on conflict course, then the EU and the G7 follow, and so it goes, sparking one senseless conflict after the other.

However, and while it may sound like a conspiracy theory, sometimes I have hope that some good military men in the US see the neocon highjacking of US policies and do their best to help make the Neocons lose the senseless wars they provoke. From Iraq over Sudan, Libya and Syria right up to Ukraine whereever the neocons provoked conflicts in recent years opponents like Iran, Russia and China win, and over time that may help to curb the neocons in the US, too. Making the neocons lose all the wars they needlessly provoke would be not a bad strategy to defeat them.

João Carlos

IMHO, sooner or later IS will make the oil prices skyrocket. When the "caliphate" think they are ready, they will start to advance again...

There are oil fields at kurdistan, south Iraq, SA and Kuwait that IS can like to grab.

Don't hope that oil prices wills tay bellow US$ 100 for long time.

Fred

That solves Russia's budget problems rather nicely then. It does screw the US economy though.

bth

Price bbl will have to go to $80s to impact their budget. Saudis have done this before in the 1980s when they destroyed US shale programs and bankrupted Soviets during Afghan war. Whats old is new again.

curtis

Don't ignore the actor w/the oldest culture, China. As the major Cold War actors weaken themselves, The Dragon smiles.

A reread of "The Clash of Civilizations" w/strong focus on the Taoist parts would be enlightening.

curtis

"...That's pure propaganda."

It is ALL propaganda, every single media story, no matter the source, no matter the delivery channel. "...same as it ever was...".

DH

zanaibar, you cause me to think of the book _What Technology Wants_

"In this provocative book, one of today's most respected thinkers turns the conversation about technology on its head by viewing technology as a natural system, an extension of biological evolution. By mapping the behavior of life, we paradoxically get a glimpse at where technology is headed-or "what it wants." Kevin Kelly offers a dozen trajectories in the coming decades for this near-living system. And as we align ourselves with technology's agenda, we can capture its colossal potential. This visionary and optimistic book explores how technology gives our lives greater meaning and is a must-read for anyone curious about the future."

http://www.amazon.com/What-Technology-Wants-Kevin-Kelly/dp/0143120174

Joao Carlos

the US economy is screwed anyway. There is no recuperation. Soros have sound reason for bet against US portfolio.... while that, Europe is fubar, russian sanctions hurt a lot a Europe is moving to recession, but Russia is making stronger trade agreements with China.

Now everyone is just waiting for a trigger that brings a huge crash. IS next move, racial conflict inside US (Ferguson), south chinese sea military conflict (you forgot that trere is one brewing?), Japan and Europe economies going dead, there are too many black swans going kamikase against our ships.

Imagine

I predict bulletproof vests are being supplied by Diamondback Tactical. Any confirmation?

Imagine

Ms. Clinton installed Cheney protege Vicky Nuland. She also had the chance to stand up and tell the world about Israel's abilities, but did not, putting Israel's interests first. She was too tired to finish a second term. Running the Presidency is much harder than running the State Dept, why does anyone think she could do a good job?

Thomas

Got keep the cash in the (criminal) family.

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