The Russians are Coming! - TTG

What a difference a week makes. Only last Friday the white convoy rolled into Lugansk with humanitarian aid for the besieged inhabitants. It was the first overt sign of Russian support to the people of Novorossiya in quite a while. They were beginning to think Putin had forsaken them. This was never the case. The best statement on the support provided by Russia to the rebels is provided by Boris Rozhin in his blog "Colonel Cassad." In one posting he assures his readers that Russia has been providing all manner of support to the rebels, but it has done so covertly. Thats how it’s done in the real world and especially by the Russians, the masters of maskirovka.  TTG

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I've actually never made it a secret that the "military surplus store" exists and it does exist (which is why I never wrote that Russia fully dumped Donbass), providing various amounts of military and financial aid to the fighting detachments, depending on the will of those on whom these flows are locked in, and on those who are involved in their distribution. For some time now, the "military surplus store" has a seasonal sale and also hands out credits, which does not prevent the continuation of the official line of "Nope, nothing, and there was never anything." On the Internet you can prove whatever you want, the diplomats will continue to play ping-pong, which can last for weeks or months. There is certain work and there is its informational and diplomatical cover. Exactly the same way as it was in the Crimea. Because this game goes on and is accepted by all parties (it would seem that the masters of the junta already have a bunch of "evidence" of the work of the "military surplus store", but they are consistently treading water in the style of "But there is no way the militia could have exactly this." and receiving the already standard answers in the spirit of "Well, you never know where and what they are filming, you never really know what the militia have there, you have no evidence." Because this scheme is cyclic, it will continue for an arbitrarily long time, if it is necessary, then it will continue up until the capture of Kiev or even Lvov, Mr. Lavrov will walk up to the mike and tell you that Russia is no way involved in anything whatsoever. And officially it will be that way. And the fact that some blogger or a commentator wrote in their blog,... these are personal opinions of individuals. And try to tell me that this scheme is not working.

Actually the meaning of all these disputes is that in addition to the real war, the parties are also fighting between each other for the creation of the dominating informational picture so that the situation would be officially re-evaluated and in this case Russia would recognize at least some evidence of its participation in the war in the Donbass right now (and not sometime later, when the situation will already be played out).

Therefore, it does not matter which evidence, real or fake, the junta will present, in any case it will be denied, because those are the rules of the game. When this simple thing becomes clear to you, you will be much less excited by the next "revelations" from the junta side. In general, all of it can be simply ignored, because they are presented by the enemy, against whom there is a war to its destruction. From the point of view of the unfolding offensive operations south of Donetsk, it is actually an minor issue, because the catastrophe of the southern group of forces of the junta is coming up much faster than there will be any impact of the "evidence of the invasion of Russia". 

And regarding the "workers of military surplus store", the presence of which the junta is trying to prove, then officially there's nobody there, of course. And officially there won't be anybody there. Well, and now I think that you figured out everything and will ask stupid questions no longer. (Colonel Cassad)

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More and more glimpses of this support have been coming out. Last week in his news conference, which I consider to be a declaration of independence for the new nation of Novorossiya, Alexander Zakharchenko announced that 1,200 rebels returned from four months of training in Russia to fall in on a vast stock of captured equipment. He explained that his forces are getting a lot of logistical support from private sources and volunteer artillery experts from Samara were aiding the militia. Today he said that there are about 3,000 Russian volunteers fighting alongside the rebel forces. Russia, no doubt, provides intelligence support. I doubt anyone, including the combatants, have a better grasp of the true situation in Ukraine. I have always assumed Russia is providing a steady supply of artillery and rocket ammunition for the very effective rebel artillery units. I also would not be surprised to learn that some of the tanks and artillery the rebels picked up were left there by “Father Christmas.” At the request of Pavel Gubarev, the former leader of the Donbass People’s Militia, Russia helped establish a coordination center in Krasnodon. That sounds like the coordination centers we recently set up in Iraq.

Neocons and R2P harpies (or should I say pigeons) have been screaming bloody murder about the Russian invasion of Ukrainian territory of the last few days. They cannot imagine that the rebels, who Kiev has repeatedly assured the world are on the verge of total defeat, are capable of first blunting the massive Ukie assault on Ilovaisk and then going on the offensive to the gates of Mariupol all in a matter of days. I find it quite believable given the fluid nature of combat over the last few months. A good account of the events that led to the rebels standing at the gates of Mariupol is told by Rozhin. It’s worth a read for its clarity. The military situation reminds me of the battle of Gazala waged south of Tobruk for several weeks in May and June 1942. Rommel feinted to the north then led his Afrika Korps south to swing around the British defenses. As is common in military operations, things did not go exactly as planned and the battle was an often confused and close run thing. What finally assured Rommel’s victory was his belief that his forces were better trained, better organized and better led at all levels. This stood him well in the confused and fluid battle. The army of Novorossiya displays the same qualities.     

Today Obama said, “There is no doubt that this is not a homegrown, indigenous uprising in eastern Ukraine. The separatists are backed, trained, armed, financed by Russia.” Russia is actively supporting Novorossiya, but that does not mean it is not  a homegrown, indigenous uprising. Does the support given to Washington by the French mean that our War of Independence not a homegrown, indigenous uprising?  Kiev has repeatedly vowed to wipe out the Moskals. What choice did the Moskals have but to take up arms and resist.

The cacophony of alarming declarations is almost overwhelming. Geoffrey Pyatt, the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, said in a Twitter post: "The new columns of Russian tanks and armor crossing into Ukraine indicates a Russian-directed counter-offensive may be underway." In the face of all this noise, it was heartening to hear Obama say, "We are not taking military action to solve the Ukrainian problem. What we're doing is to mobilize the international community to apply pressure on Russia.” Obama will visit Estonia before attending a NATO summit in Wales next Thursday and Friday. He intends to "reaffirm our unwavering commitment to the defense of our NATO allies." Let’s hope he can resist the whispers of all the Grima Wormtongues that surround him between now and the NATO summit.

Putin has recently stepped up his public support for Novorossiya. He told Poroshenko that he will not dictate terms to the rebels and that Poroshenko would have to talk to the Donbass representatives directly. I don’t think there will be a deal behind Novorossiya’s back. In a presidential address today, Putin asked the militia forces to open a humanitarian corridor to allow the encircled Ukrainian forces to cross the Russian border. That would save the rebels the time and effort of having to reduce these pockets themselves and free up those militia forces for offensive operations elsewhere. The rebels have expressed their support for this initiative. Putin also said he would be sending more white convoys and would coordinate these convoys directly with the rebels rather than with Kiev. He also congratulated the Novorossiya militia on their accomplishments. On a firm, but conciliatory note, he added, “I once again call on the Ukrainian authorities to immediately stop military actions, cease fire, sit down at the negotiating table with Donbass representatives and resolve all the accumulated problems exclusively via peaceful means.”    

If this was a chess game, Putin is in a position to checkmate the West in half a dozen moves. Let us hope the West can see this and quietly concede rather than act as a flock of pigeons. A ceasefire and negotiations is far preferable to toying with the possibility of nuclear war. - TTG

The painting above is “Defend Sevastopol” by Vasily Igorevich Nesterenko done in 2005. I think it evokes many elements and much of the spirit of both Russia and Novorossiya or as David Habakkuk might say, the Putinistas and the Strelkovites.

TTG

Comments

[LJ]

There certainly were many ways well before and even after the Maidan to avoid unleashing the so-called punitive forces on the breakaway oblasts. I recall Dr. Kissinger putting forth proposals along lines that would diffuse the conflict. The supposed adults who took the reigns of power away from the Bush administration seem to want to insure that the "ark of instability" remains unstable. Ukraine. Syria. Libya. Afghanistan (the right war, unlike Iraq), now we have ISIS, with connections to the Western training and supply.

It's been called the empire of chaos.

I suggest the hermeneutical key is the Ukraine. We now have, or should have clarity. The Russian Federation is the primary target. Splitting the RF from the EU is a shorter term goal. The longer term goal is the about neutralizing Russia.

The globaltimes article suggests Israel and the neocons are at the heart of the matter. Maybe so. But it seems that the so-called adults are also into it up to their eyeballs. Everyone a neocon?

[b]

That piece is quite below the usual McClatchy standard.

It quotes one anti-Russian oligarch and the council of soldier mothers, which for years has been financed by the NED.

That's pure propaganda.

[Fred]

bth,

"According to Reuters, Russia’s budget is based on the assumption of an average oil price of $114 per barrel. It is nowhere near that high right now, however."

"Disproportional impact"? The important point is the assumption "budget based on $114/barrel" pricing. This quote from the man you linked to is not supported by any spot market data- Oil prices have never reached a sustained $114/barrel in history.

[Fred]

Mistah Charley,

"The estimate of at least 1,000 active Russian troops now fighting in Ukraine..."
But of course it is not that but the threat of additional sanctions, namely UEFA removing Russian teams from competition for the World Cup, that is going to lead to a change in Russian foreign policy?

[pbj]

@Patrick Bahzad,
Thanks!

[William P. Fitzgerald III]

LJ,
What is the reason for the "Ukraine gambit" is a question being answered in several ways, including NATO expansion and access to natural gas reserves. I think that the answer lies in the long range thinking of the people who constitute the foreign policy establishment in the U.S. and their like-thinking cohorts in European countries. My primary assumption is that, by the end of 2013, a stabilized Russia was on a slow path of economic and political integration into Europe. The result that historical process would be Europe no longer under the influence of America and an end to American hegemony. It seems logical that Russian integration is the worst nightmare for those whose goal is American domination. Thus we saw, in this "Annus Horribilis", the boycott by certain western heads of state of the winter Olympics over homosexuality (I suppose they couldn't think of anything else), the coup d'état in Kiev, the response in annexing Crimea, automony and declared in the east, economic sanctions on Russia, and the attack by Kiev forces. I think this mess is the general result intended ftom the beginning.

WPFIII

[bth]

Error on my part. Russian budget set for $104 per bbl not $114. Typo. Price falling to $93. One dollar drop is $1.4 billion usd to reduced russian government revenue. Pricing in mid 80's per bbl puts in strong deficit.

Financing of arctic projects now precluded due to capital access. In soviet afghan war did saudi driven low oil prices bankrupt evil empire? Would easing of iran sanctions now flood oil markets?

[The beaver]

@ Fred

May be FIFA should also cancel the 2022 WC ! :-)
After all , isn't Qatar on eof the financiers of the Jihadist rebels in Syria

[Fred]

bth,

Oil prices have to go allot lower than $93/barrel. That would also negatively impact US oil production. The Suadis are still going to have a problem with ISIS. Defeating them will require Russian assistance, destroying Putin's government will only make the defeat of ISIS (and thus maintenance of the current Saudi governmental structure) harder.

[Fred]

beaver,

Naw, think of the TV ratings an ISIS attack in Qatar would generate.

[Thomas]

Alba,

The Honorable Ones are showing the Kiddie Krew that Caliph Ibrahaim and the Islamic State are the real deal of a threat. That The Presider mentioned there is no policy yet is a good sign because it means that a thought through plan should be in the works.

[LJ]

Agree 100%.

And now Walrus is reporting Ukraine is being fast tracked into NATO. Was this gamed?

What then is the end game? I continue to see no reason other than the dissolution of the RF and its management by IMF technocrats.

[Bandolero]

LJ
In my opinion there where many ways of preventing this disaster and other disasters.

From what I see the Neocons are the speerhead of a larger pro-Israeli power network. The neocons provoke conflicts, the liberal Israeli power networks push a hard line to follow them, and soon after almost nobody in the US dares to challenge their faulty narratives, since the Israeli power network is really powerful and nobody, especially not the president, wants to appear weak. And when the US is on conflict course, then the EU and the G7 follow, and so it goes, sparking one senseless conflict after the other.

However, and while it may sound like a conspiracy theory, sometimes I have hope that some good military men in the US see the neocon highjacking of US policies and do their best to help make the Neocons lose the senseless wars they provoke. From Iraq over Sudan, Libya and Syria right up to Ukraine whereever the neocons provoked conflicts in recent years opponents like Iran, Russia and China win, and over time that may help to curb the neocons in the US, too. Making the neocons lose all the wars they needlessly provoke would be not a bad strategy to defeat them.

[João Carlos]

IMHO, sooner or later IS will make the oil prices skyrocket. When the "caliphate" think they are ready, they will start to advance again...

There are oil fields at kurdistan, south Iraq, SA and Kuwait that IS can like to grab.

Don't hope that oil prices wills tay bellow US$ 100 for long time.

[Fred]

That solves Russia's budget problems rather nicely then. It does screw the US economy though.

[bth]

Price bbl will have to go to $80s to impact their budget. Saudis have done this before in the 1980s when they destroyed US shale programs and bankrupted Soviets during Afghan war. Whats old is new again.

[curtis]

Don't ignore the actor w/the oldest culture, China. As the major Cold War actors weaken themselves, The Dragon smiles.

A reread of "The Clash of Civilizations" w/strong focus on the Taoist parts would be enlightening.

[curtis]

"...That's pure propaganda."

It is ALL propaganda, every single media story, no matter the source, no matter the delivery channel. "...same as it ever was...".

[DH]

zanaibar, you cause me to think of the book _What Technology Wants_

"In this provocative book, one of today's most respected thinkers turns the conversation about technology on its head by viewing technology as a natural system, an extension of biological evolution. By mapping the behavior of life, we paradoxically get a glimpse at where technology is headed-or "what it wants." Kevin Kelly offers a dozen trajectories in the coming decades for this near-living system. And as we align ourselves with technology's agenda, we can capture its colossal potential. This visionary and optimistic book explores how technology gives our lives greater meaning and is a must-read for anyone curious about the future."

http://www.amazon.com/What-Technology-Wants-Kevin-Kelly/dp/0143120174

[Joao Carlos]

the US economy is screwed anyway. There is no recuperation. Soros have sound reason for bet against US portfolio.... while that, Europe is fubar, russian sanctions hurt a lot a Europe is moving to recession, but Russia is making stronger trade agreements with China.

Now everyone is just waiting for a trigger that brings a huge crash. IS next move, racial conflict inside US (Ferguson), south chinese sea military conflict (you forgot that trere is one brewing?), Japan and Europe economies going dead, there are too many black swans going kamikase against our ships.

[Imagine]

I predict bulletproof vests are being supplied by Diamondback Tactical. Any confirmation?

[Imagine]

Ms. Clinton installed Cheney protege Vicky Nuland. She also had the chance to stand up and tell the world about Israel's abilities, but did not, putting Israel's interests first. She was too tired to finish a second term. Running the Presidency is much harder than running the State Dept, why does anyone think she could do a good job?

[Thomas]

Got keep the cash in the (criminal) family.